2015 Season Countdown: #3 Jabrill Peppers

2015 Season Countdown: #3 Jabrill Peppers


August 31, 2015

Jabrill Peppers (image via MGoBlog)

Name: Jabrill Peppers
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 205 lbs.
High school: Paramus (NJ) Catholic
Position: Defensive back
Class: Redshirt freshman
Jersey number: #5
Last year: I ranked Peppers #23 and said he would be a backup cornerback before starting at strong safety, and he would also play at returner and some on offense. He played in three games, making 8 tackles and 1 punt return for 6 yards.

Representative of how Michigan has been so disappointing in the last few years, Peppers was Michigan’s top recruit since the year 2000 (LINK) . . . and promptly got hurt. An Appalachian State player rolled into his ankle in the season opener, and a later knee injury caused him to miss the rest of the year. He got a redshirt, but it was disappointing for him, the team, and the fans, who were expecting big things. Michigan had good depth at cornerback, but playmakers were lacking at safety and on offense. He could have helped in many ways, but he didn’t.

Hit the jump for the rest of the writeup on Peppers.

I don’t know if the hype has ever been more intense for a player who has never done much of anything on a college football field. He made 8 tackles and returned a punt for 6 yards, but newspapers (just kidding – those don’t exist!), magazines, and blogs are champing at the bit to see all the amazing things he can do on a football field. A new article pops up about Peppers seemingly every two or three days, and perhaps rightfully so. The previous coaching staff used him mostly at corner, but this spring he was directing the defense mainly from the free safety position. They have moved him around to slot corner, and he has even seen some time in practice on the outside once again now that Blake Countess surprised everyone by transferring to Auburn. Additionally, rumors have leaked out that he knows the offensive playbook and will see some time on offense. Toss in some kickoff and punt returns, and he’s expected to be even more involved than he was as a freshman.

Like everyone, I expect some big things from Peppers this year. He might be Michigan’s best player. He might not be needed at safety, because Jarrod Wilson has one starting job locked down and Delano Hill has been impressive, too. At cornerback, too, one spot is locked down by Jourdan Lewis, but the other one is questionable with Stanford transfer Wayne Lyons battling with junior Channing Stribling and redshirt freshman Brandon Watson. Somewhat like Marlin Jackson in the early 2000’s, it makes sense to plug in Peppers wherever he’s needed most.

In the Big Ten right now, I’m not terrified of a lot of the wide receivers. What scares me most is the running game and the play action pass, so I would like to see Peppers play in the middle of the field. He can support the run, he can be involved in a lot of the action, and he can help out both of his corners. I’m not in love with Lyons at corner, but Michigan could stick Lewis on the opponent’s best receiver, leave Lyons with the #2 guy, and rotate Peppers as they see fit. He will probably move down into the slot in certain packages, too, to get him coming off the edge.

Another exciting aspect of Peppers’s game is what he can do with the ball in his hands. Michigan is lacking an experienced return guy now that Dennis Norfleet has transferred to Tuskegee. Peppers, Amara Darboh, and Da’Mario Jones have combined for 4 punt returns in their careers. Jehu Chesson and Jourdan Lewis have combined for 4 kickoff returns. Peppers is rumored to have been working at slot receiver a little bit so far this fall. Jim Harbaugh is known for using two-way guys, and Peppers will probably be the most prominent two-way player on Michigan’s team, although probably not the only one.

Michigan has recruited fairly well over the years, and there are guys at each of Peppers’s positions who can get the job done. But if he gets hurt, a whole chain reaction of events follows, and every phase of the game will be affected. If he can stay in the lineup this year, he should be able to fill up the stat sheet and help nudge Michigan toward a few victories with some big plays.

Prediction: Starting safety, punt returner; part-time kickoff returner, slot receiver; 15 carries for 90 yards, 2 touchdowns; 15 catches for 180 yards, 1 touchdown; 45 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions

25 comments

  1. Comments: 8
    greensborohill
    Aug 31, 2015 at 8:42 AM

    Rudock or Butt, gotta go with Jake as #1. Very excited for the season.

    • Comments: 522
      Joined: 8/12/2015
      DonAZ
      Aug 31, 2015 at 10:06 AM

      Is that who’s left — Ruddock and Butt? (This is why I asked about the complete list … the see who’s not yet been named so I could figure out who was left.)

      If so, then Ruddock has to be #1. I don’t see how a TE / WR can be above the guy that makes the whole offense run (QB).

      • Comments: 3844
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        Aug 31, 2015 at 10:08 AM

        Yeah, Butt and Rudock are left.

      • Comments: 8
        greensborohill
        Aug 31, 2015 at 12:34 PM

        I just search “2015 Season Countdown” in the top left hand corner and it returns all of them in chronological order.

  2. Comments: 522
    Joined: 8/12/2015
    DonAZ
    Aug 31, 2015 at 8:45 AM

    Two left … which got me thinking about where the complete countdown list to date is located. Is there a link for that?

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Aug 31, 2015 at 9:04 AM

      It’s not located anywhere – you would just have to click on the blog tag. I’ll post the whole list when I get to #1.

  3. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Aug 31, 2015 at 10:31 AM

    I think last year’s rank is closer to ‘right’ IMO because if you replace ‘cornerback’ with ‘nickelback’ – all the same stuff applies, more or less. And if you consider nickel a type of cornerback, then that post is really still spot on. 8 tackles later – what has changed?

    Nothing of substance; but a year of hype, a bunch of practices, and a new coaching staff later and Peppers keeps coming in for more and more praise, from coaches, fans, practice observers, etc. I don’t know how much of that is earned and how much of it just people buying into the hype. That said, it would be inconsistent to hold a lack of hype against Ty Isaac and not put at least some stock into the Peppers buzz. The new staff have been very complementary. Has anyone ever said anything bad about Jabril Peppers on a football field?

    Still – #3? For a guy without a true position, no trackrecord, who might not even start?

    If Peppers is hurt, it just means Stribling, Clark, and Lyons play a bigger role, and they are not bad players.

    I don’t think he is superman. I don’t expect him to play nearly every down on defense like some do. I DON’T expect the defense to be “Built” around his skills, like Brian Cook has argued.

    I think he’s going to make some highlight plays on offense. I think he’s going to be a good player on defense. I think he’s going to be a valuable glue guy, but it may take an injury somewhere before he finds a ‘home’ at corner or safety.

    But you know what – It’s no fun being a wet blanket here. I really hope you and everybody else buying into the hype machine is right.

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Aug 31, 2015 at 10:43 AM

      I think a lot of things have changed. Again, it’s not just about him – it’s about the whole makeup of the team. Devin Funchess was a big-time playmaker (before he set it to cruise control) who is now gone. Dennis Norfleet made some explosive plays, and he’s now gone. Blake Countess – whom I guess I overrated – was coming off an All-Big Ten season last year, and now he’s gone to Auburn.

      All three of those guys are players who could have picked up some of the slack or taken roles that Peppers now inhabits. Add in the fact that he’s now a sophomore/redshirt freshman whom the coaches and other players have been talking about as the quarterback of the defense (that was not the case going into 2014), and I think the ranking is justified.

      • Comments: 6285
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Aug 31, 2015 at 10:59 AM

        Lyons replaced Countess or Taylor so really they are only a man down in the secondary and everybody else got older, wiser, better. Lewis is a known commodity now. Hill has gotten his feat wet. Clark has shown he’s at least a capable backup. etc. I think the secondary is stronger this season than last (when there was one open secondary spot as well, but more youth in general).

        I don’t think Peppers is replacing Funchess, I get what you are saying about the ‘playmaker’ need, but we don’t know if that’s more likely to come from Drake Harris, Ty Isaac, Ian Bunting or even Brian Cole than Peppers. He might be a Norfleet-level contributor (i.e., used situationally on offense), but even that seems pretty optimistic given his responsibilities on defense.

        Did other players call him “quarterback of the defense” or was that media-driven

        Do you think he’ll be the “quarterback of the defense” – playing the majority of downs AND replace Norfleet’s role? It’s hard for me to imagine that many snaps for a freshman, no matter how talented.

        • Comments: 3844
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Aug 31, 2015 at 1:01 PM

          I’m not convinced that Lyons is better than Countess or Taylor, so that’s not a very inspiring argument.

          Other players “might” fill the playmaker role. I feel like this is kind of a constant issue with your comments. Lots of people “might” do things. However, this list reflects what I think *will* happen. (That’s not to say I’m right, of course.)

          His teammates have said that he’s getting the defense lined up, calling the coverages, etc. I can’t say 100% that he’s been referred to as the quarterback of the defense, but indications are that he’s communicating a lot from the safety position.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Sep 01, 2015 at 1:44 PM

            You keep bring up the “might” issue and it really doesn’t make much sense. There is no distinction between “I think it will but I could be wrong” and “might”. This whole thing is speculative. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but it’s more likely that Jake Rudock is quarterback than Alex Malzone and it’s more likely that Terry Richardson is sitting on the bench than Jourdan Lewis. We have some information. The countdown is about how you use that information to make a projection about the upcoming season.

            I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect Pepppers to ‘quarterback’ the defense AND be the offense’s biggest playmaking threat. Even Charles Woodson didn’t do this – as a junior!

            Maybe Peppers is Tom Harmon, but if that’s the case he should be #1, not #3.

            ———-

            I didn’t say Lyons was better than those guys, I said he replaces them in terms of functional depth. Countess was basically a 3rd corner last year. Lyons can do that job too. Even if Lyons is pushed to a backup safety role, I would view that as mostly a good sign for Michigan, because it means that whoever is in instead of him (Hill, Clark, Stripling, etc.) is better than a proven major conference starter.

          • Comments: 3844
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Sep 01, 2015 at 1:55 PM

            Why does it matter that Lyons is there if he’s not a step up? He’s second on the depth chart at safety. I think he’s likely a step down from having Countess (or Taylor), since both of those guys played some quality football. Countess was a former All-Big Ten player. Keith Washington joined the team, too. That doesn’t mean he makes Peppers less important.

            The argument about “might” is…interesting. Yes, I’m expressing my opinions here. But the way you pose your arguments sometimes makes it seem as if I’m supposed to change my opinion of how I believe things are going to happen. This list is how I see things going. I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind – I’m just sharing my opinion, and people are welcome to agree or disagree. But saying “This might happen so you’re wrong” is a strange argument to have.

            I can’t at one time believe Peppers is the #3 guy AND the #10 guy on this list. Attempting to convince me otherwise at this juncture is a bit pointless, especially since the season has yet to begin. By the time game six or game ten rolls around, then we’ll have an idea of whether each of us is right or not. But as of this moment, I believe I’m right or else I wouldn’t be writing the things I’m writing.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Sep 01, 2015 at 3:38 PM

            Every players value/rank depends in part on the context, including depth and quality in the secondary. Lyons contributes to that, whether he is better or worse than Countess/Taylor. I think your Lyons post said you expect him to play a meaningful role. I agree. The question of Peppers rank (this year vs last) depends on how good the other players in the secondary are, in aggregate. Maybe Lyons IS worse than Countess/Taylor, but Lewis, Wilson, etc. should all be better with age and experience gained. In other words, I don’t think our secondary got worse in 2015.

            My arguments are not intended to change your opinion or rank, it’s just a discussion of value. To me, the discussion and perspectives are interesting. Usually I mostly agree with your takes but when I have a different opinion about a guy’s value I say it. Didn’t know you were so sensitive…

            Again, the whole thing is speculative. My “might” happens are reacting to your “might” happens. “I think this will happen but it might not” vs “might” is just semantics.

            Nobody is telling you you have to change your mind. At most I’m asking for clarifying your opinion. Most other times I’m just stating that my own is different, and laying out the reasons why.

        • Comments: 313
          Joined: 8/17/2015
          JC
          Aug 31, 2015 at 5:46 PM

          Jabrill will be on the field in whatever base defense is being run, and he’ll move down to slot corner when we move to nickel packages, unless he needs a break, or if we don’t need him to be on the field. He’s going to be a substantial part of the defense.

          He probably wont be a substantial part of the offense this year. I see him getting a look here and there, which could throw teams off even if he’s just a diversion.

          He probably will be a decent part of special teams play this year. I could see him putting up one score from a kickoff or from a punt. Depends how risky Harbaugh and co. want to be with arguably the most talented player on the roster.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Sep 01, 2015 at 1:45 PM

            This is the consensus expectation. That doesn’t mean it is right.

            What if Lewis is hurt? What if Wilson is hurt? What if Hill plays too well to stay off the field? What if the D dominates people but the offense fails to move the chains consistently enough and lacks big plays?

    • Comments: 49
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Blue in NC
      Aug 31, 2015 at 5:51 PM

      Well I think one big thing that has changes is that Peppers has a full year around the program. It’s quite understandable for a RS freshman to have higher expectations than a true freshman for this very reason. Plus add that Peppers showed he was good enough to play as a true frosh. Those factors alone allow a reasonable bump in expectations.

      • Comments: 6285
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Sep 01, 2015 at 1:48 PM

        Yeah, but you have to also consider that last year’s expectations proved unfounded. He didn’t play due to injury and the little bits he did play didn’t indicate he was a game-changing talent. (They also didn’t indicate he WASN’T or that he COULDN’T be, but if he was a 3-star athlete you had no expectations for all you would have said was: looks pretty solid out there against app state, I’d like to see him more)

        • Comments: 49
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Blue in NC
          Sep 02, 2015 at 9:03 AM

          I get that but my point is that we expected a certain level last year from Peppers (even without relevant college data points). The expectations are even higher this year because (1) he’s a RS frosh with a year in the program, and (2) he at least showed he was good enough to play as a true frosh. And there were not really any negatives – it’s not like anyone expected Peppers would be an All-American from day 1 (not even Woodson did that). Those two relevant bits of information would cause expectations to be higher this year compared to last year. Even if you think Thunder rated Peppers too high last year, it’s reasonable to think he would have higher expectations for this year.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Sep 02, 2015 at 10:29 AM

            Valid points, to be sure. But most people think players gain experience mostly when they play (I don’t agree with this, but a lot of people treat redshirt freshman the same way they treat true freshman in terms of expectations). I’d also say that playing as a true freshman doesn’t necessarily mean very much. Guys burn red-shirts all the time for little on-field benefit.

            I will grant you that a few things changed, but considering that Peppers was already expected to be a top 20ish player on this team, I don’t know any of it was substantive enough to bump him from 21 to 3. Just my opinion.

  4. Comments: 3
    Joined: 8/26/2015
    beaver
    Aug 31, 2015 at 10:55 AM

    I think I’m most excited to see this kid on punt returns. It’s always great to hear the big house slowly go into a roar when a punt return TD becomes more and more evident. I feel like it’s been a while.

    • Comments: 6285
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Aug 31, 2015 at 12:08 PM

      These days, there’s only a few guys across all of college football that even manage to get 2 TDs in a season. With spread punts in place, the Punt Return is mostly an exercise in not turning the ball over. In other words – I wouldn’t get my hopes up too high in this facet of the game.

      Peppers is probably more likely to get a TD on defense than punt returns.

      • Comments: 3844
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        Aug 31, 2015 at 1:06 PM

        During the 2014 season, 10 guys scored multiple touchdowns on punt returns. And there were 23 players who averaged 10+ yards/return. There’s reason to be excited if you think Peppers can be one of those elite returners.

        On another note, Kaelin Clay was a 3-star and the #53 wide receiver to Rivals in the 2010 class. He returned 3 punts for touchdowns at Utah last year. I don’t see a huge reason not to be excited about the potential for a #3 overall recruit (247 Composite) to pull off similar feats. It’s unlikely, but there’s always hope.

        • Comments: 6285
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Sep 01, 2015 at 1:53 PM

          Only 10 guys? Across every team in the country? That’s not a compelling argument, it just reinforces what I said.

          It’s very unlikely that Peppers (or anyone else) is a bigtime difference maker. Not impossible, but it’s also not impossible that he returns 5 INTs back for TDs this year.

          If what you are excited about most for Peppers is punt returns – you might get ready for disappointment — unless you think a couple yards per kick improvement is exciting.

          That’s if he even wins the job. I wouldn’t use him that way, personally. There’s just not enough value and opportunity to make an impact there relative to offense or defense. It’s a lot of fair catching and/or running into 4 unblocked defenders after 3 or 4 yards.

          I’m not saying he can’t return a kick back for a TD this year, I’m just saying it may take him 40 punts to do it…and somebody like Chesson or Perry can do that too.

          • Comments: 3844
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Sep 01, 2015 at 2:03 PM

            What it means is that if he’s the steady return guy (and there are probably several teams out there who will not have a steady return guy), he has perhaps a 10% chance of returning multiple punts for touchdowns.

            Furthermore, the number of players with multiple PR touchdowns has actually gone up in the past few years. There were 10 in 2014, 13 in 2013, 9 in 2012, 5 in 2011, 5 in 2010, 8 in 2009, and 7 in 2008.

            Maybe you’re comparing the 2015 season to pre-2008 years, but over the last seven seasons, there’s no indication that your argument is particularly useful.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Sep 01, 2015 at 3:26 PM

            This is sort of akin to hoping a DB or LB can return a bunch of fumbles or INTs for TDs. Low-likelihood events. Last year there were 11 guys who returned “multiple” INTs for TDs. So, hoping for Peppers to do it on INTs is about as reasonable as hoping for him to do it on punts.

            In this definition of “multiple”, you’re talking about a 10% chance of returning 1 more TD (maybe 2 tops) than most steady returners will get. That’s not exactly a season-altering difference.

            Punt returns have gone down as spread punts have come into place. Punt returns were never likely to produce a lot of scores, but it’s even more true now. Hoping for them is a low probability thing. Even if player in questions is a proven stud returner, it’s extremely unlikely that he’ll get a bunch of TDs.

            I think Peppers is more likely to get TDs on offense or defense than special teams. To me – punt returns is a weird place to hope he makes a difference, because it’s just a difficult place for anyone who isn’t punting to make a big difference.

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