Tagged: Channing Stribling
Lanknows.
LanknowsThunder and I have repeatedly debated the relative merits of Channing Stribling over the last 3 years. PFF offers an objective analysis that hits on many of the points (pro and con) we have discussed.
The take homes:
+ Graded out the 2nd best cover corner in the country.
+ Good length and physicality at the line.
+ Poor speed and bad at tackling.
+ Not going to go in the first 3 rounds but has potential to be a starter in the long-run.
Worth a read:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/draft-pff-scouting-report-channing-stribling-cb-michigan/
Mike KnappI think one positive that Stribling has going for him in the draft is that one of his major deficiencies (tackling) is relatively easy to improve. Grading out as the #2 cover-corner in the draft is a huge. Especially with the passing spread on the rise in the NFL, teams need cover guys. I think it’ll be easier to improve tackling than coverage technique, but that’s just a gut feeling. Speed, on the other hand, might be more problematic. If he finds the right team, Stribling could find some decent playing time at the next level.
LanknowsAgreed. The speed is the thing that really is keeping him from being taken highly. Strength is nothing some NFL-caliber “nutritionist” can’t fix up. Tackling can be cleaned up with coaching/development.
It does sound like he has a good chance to be drafted with his size and college production.
ThunderI can’t really argue with much of this. I don’t think I’ve been as harsh on Stribling as you think sometimes. The main thrust of my argument is that if I were an opposing team, I would target Stribling over Lewis; in other words, I think Lewis is better than Stribling. Considering Lewis is considered to be someone who will probably go in the first couple rounds of the draft, I think that’s a perfectly defensible position. My main frustration with Stribling early in his career was an inability to make actual plays on the football (a valid critique, IMO), but he improved upon that as a senior. And then his tackling is an issue, which was verified by PFF. Stribling is a fine college cornerback, but his slow 40, lack of reps on the bench press, poor tackling, etc. make him one of the less athletic cornerbacks available.
LanknowsWasn’t looking to rehash the debate as much as say that some of the good things I’ve said and some of the bad things you’ve said were both reflected in PFF’s assessment.
The thing about Lewis vs Stribling is that teams didn’t really go after Stribling. MSU went after Lewis pretty overtly (though Burbridge being their #1 guy has something to do with it.) There is a debate that can be had about what Lewis’ performance against Burbridge meant. On the one hand he was targeted a lot at a low success rate. On the other hand he was targeted a lot with a high yardage total. FSU, OSU, and other top teams were absolutely not afraid to throw at Lewis. I think they viewed Stribling & Lewis as being pretty equal in coverage, so you might as well throw at the better WR.
Overall I agree that Lewis was better. That’s a consensus view that I don’t think anyone has countered. He was the guy Michigan put on #1 WRs when they matched up that way. He got more honors and will get drafted higher. etc. I just don’t think the margin was as large as has been asserted. PFF graded Stribling out higher FWIW.
In my mind it’s another case of preconceptions being sticky. Most people were worried about non-Lewis CB2 coming into 2015. Even after a very good year and all the DUDE talk last Spring, people still didn’t want to look at Stribling as an NFL-caliber CB. Splitting snaps with Clark played into that, but few considered that we might have 3 excellent CBs on the roster at that time.
The playmaking thing remains silly to me. I’ve said this before but rare events are volatile. Peppers didn’t return a punt for a TD – doesn’t mean he wasn’t a playmaker. Striblings playmaking stats went up when he got more snaps. Maybe he improved in this regard dramatically, maybe it was always there. In 2015 he had 2 INTs in 9 games while splitting snaps with Clark. In 2016 he had 4 INTs in 12 games playing full time. That’s no significant change. His tackles went up by about 50% (probably about what his snaps went up).
The playmaking thing was something we argued about before and I think Stribling proved you wrong (more than he improved). That’s one example of how I think you’ve been consistently negative and skeptical about Stribling. But whatever – that’s old news.
ThunderPeppers did return a punt for a TD, against Colorado.
I think it’s worthwhile to point out that 1 of Stribling’s interceptions in 2015 came on a busted fake field goal by Florida when Stribling tore through the line and Florida basically pitched it right at him. It’s an INT, of course, but it’s not really indicative of his coverage.
I think Stribling did improve, though. That’s why he’s grading out so high this year after not grading out so well in 2015. It’s also why there was talk in the spring last year that he was the best player on the defense. There have been lots of signs that he improved as a player, and that improvement has been steady.
You say that stats are “volatile,” but he went from 0 PBUs as a freshman and sophomore to 3 as a junior and then 13 as a senior. His interceptions also went from 0 to 0 to 2 to 4. Yes, he played more as a senior, but he didn’t play four times as much (to go from 3 PBUs to 13). When you steady improvement in both play and statistics from freshman to senior year, I’m not sure how you don’t acknowledge that personal improvement was a part of it. If he had started as a freshman, he wouldn’t have made 4 picks and 13 pass breakups; he needed to get better in order to make that happen.
LanknowsThat’s the point. There’s an element of luck to getting any amount of INTs, no matter how impressive the individual play is (or not). You’re talking about something that happens 2-5 times a season (or not). You look at HOF NFL CBs and their INTs typically fluctuate from year to year. It doesn’t mean they are getting better or worse.
There is a standard deviation of about 2 INTs even for a great at the NFL level. 0-2 INTs in a season is well within it, even for an elite college CB.
I’m not saying Stribling didn’t improve. I’m saying the “playmaker” attribute you criticized him for a year ago didn’t go from weakness to strength in one offseason.
I haven’t see where Stribling graded out “not so well” in 2015. He played less, but that’s mostly because Clark was playing well too. Is there evidence to say CB play at Michigan improved in 2016 vs 2015 or did Michigan miss having a 3rd guy they trusted?
ThunderI think your point is self-defeating. You say that the great cornerbacks’ interceptions FLUCTUATE, but by fluctuating, you’re acknowledging that they exist. They don’t hover at zero. If it were attributed to luck, then why wouldn’t good cornerbacks get 4 then 0 then 6 then 2 then 0. Aqib Talib isn’t an all-time great, but I’m sure we can agree that he’s been a solid player; he’s had 4, 5, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4, 3, and 3 interceptions throughout his career. With a high of 6 and a low of 2, he’s averaged 3.7 per year. Darius Slay is not as good as Talib, and he’s had 0, 2, 2, and 2 interceptions in his career, with the 0 coming when he didn’t play much as a rookie.
If luck is so important here, why is Darius Slay averaging 1.5 (or 2) interceptions a year and consistently putting up lower numbers, while Talib is putting up better numbers consistently, regardless of whether he’s playing with Tampa Bay, New England, or Denver? The answer is obvious: Talib is better than Slay.
There wasn’t fluctuation with Stribling. Naturally, I agree that there’s *an* element of luck. For example, Stribling was very lucky that Hawaii’s QB threw the ball directly into his chest for a pick-six in the season opener. That wasn’t great coverage or talent. It was a crappy play by an overwhelmed QB. But that doesn’t account for all of his interceptions and pass breakups. I think you’re overstating how much luck is involved in playing cornerback.
(BTW, you seem to be limiting this conversation to interceptions, whereas I have repeatedly stated that pass breakups should also be used in the equation. I might agree that 2 interceptions can turn into 4 interceptions because of “luck,” but 3 PBUs doesn’t turn into 13 PBUs because of “luck.” Your stats don’t improve by 433% because of random chance.)
Lanknows” I think you’re overstating how much luck is involved in playing cornerback”
This statement illustrates a key point in our debate. You view INTs as a primary indicator of “playing cornerback”. My point about luck relates to INT numbers — NOT overall CB play. You see the two as going hand-in-hand while I think a great CB can have low INT numbers in a given year.
I agree with you that over the long run the INT average is meaningful. Larger sample of data smooths out fluctuations in luck, DBs around you, etc. Over their 4-year careers Stribling and Lewis both averaged 1.5 INTs per year. Lewis played significantly more snaps, so has a lower “playmaking” rate, but that’s not really an indictment of his ability as a corner (rather it’s a credit) in my opinion. It IS an indictment of your preseason critiques in 2015 and 2016 that Stribling lacked playmaking while Lewis did not.
I don’t believe that Stribling is a better “playmaker” than Lewis even though he had twice as many INTs in 2016. That’s just the volatility I’m talking about. My whole point is to not make too much out of one year INT numbers (or PBU numbers).
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I do also agree that PBUs are a better indicator than INTs because they are less fluctuation-prone. BUT, a) PBU’s are still a once-a-game on average stat (i.e., volatile) an b) a PBU is not a “playmaker” stat. I still think you have to take the PBU numbers in context and recognize that they mean you’re getting thrown at. If you’re getting thrown at often it means you’re letting guys open. A coverage sack or a ball thrown away doesn’t register as a CB stat, but it means your CB was doing an excellent job — better than when he uses his makeup speed, timing, or strength to bat away a thrown ball at the last second.
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This is what you wrote about Stribling right before he had 6 INTs in 2 years. “the cornerback position is about making plays on the ball, and he doesn’t seem to have that “it” factor for a corner. He seems to be a step slow when it comes to timing, turning to run, finding the ball, etc. … Stribling seems to be on the outside looking in when it comes to major playing time this season. ”
My comments on the topic are the same as they were in that post:
http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2015/07/2015-season-countdown-35-channing.html
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Isn’t it possible that Stribling’s been a “playmaker” all along? Given the fluctuations in year-to-year INT stats and playing time, Stribling had more INTs on fewer attempts than Lewis. Not just in 2016 but over the span of their career.
Isn’t it possible he was very good in coverage all along? That the increase in PBUs from 3 to 13 isn’t anymore indicative of improvement than Jourdan Lewis’ decrease from 20 to 11 is indicative of decline.
Isn’t it possible that his one true weakness was run defense all along? That that is what kept him from keeping Clark or Hollowell strapped to the bench? You were critical of this all along and all available evidence says you were right on point.
I think it’s not only possible but likely for all of the above. So, while I agree that Stribling got better, I don’t agree that your critical takes on his coverage ability and playmaking ability were valid. I think you’re still reading too much into the box score and not enough into the circumstantial evidence like playing time and roster context.
Lewis is a better player than Stribling – not because of ‘playmkaing’ or coverage ability reflected in PBUs – but because he is a more complete player who the coaches have trusted with more playing time and tougher assignments throughout their careers. A better player can have inferior PBU and INT stats, as we saw in 2016. A better player can have a lower INT rate (as we saw over the course of Stribling/Lewis’ careers).
Lanknows“3 PBUs doesn’t turn into 13 PBUs because of “luck.” Your stats don’t improve by 433% because of random chance.)”
Playing time is probably the biggest factor here. Stribling split snaps with Clark and missed a chunk of the season due to injury in 2015. In 2016 he played nearly every meaningful snap as it was Lewis&Clark who took turns getting hurt. So he probably more than doubled his snaps.
Beyond that… yes, there is randomness and there are circumstances that influence this. You can see this by examining Jourdan Lewis’ stats. Lewis’ PBUs went way down in 2016 which — if you assume Lewis was at least as he was the year before — indicates that yes, random chance is a big part of PBUs also.
And circumstance — I would argue that teams just made a more concerted effort to not throw near Lewis. The 2015 MSU game alone had a half season’s worth of PBUs (6). That’s because MSU’s gameplan was to throw it right at Lewis. He had zero PBUs in 2016 against MSU. Would you argue that was indicative of some sort of deficiency in playmaking for Lewis? Of course not. And doing so for Stribling may have been just as ridiculous (despite being less obvious or intuitive).
It’s not reasonable to argue that these statistics told a story about Stribling and his improvement when you have Jourdan Lewis right across the field from him…unless you think Jourdan Lewis got worse while he was winning all those awards he won.
ThunderI think we’re nearing agree-to-disagree status, but two final points:
1. Every cornerback “gets thrown at.” Teams don’t avoid throwing at cornerbacks, period, at least not unless you’re an all-time great like Deion Sanders or something. So the “He’s getting PBUs because people are throwing at him” excuse is kind of lame. People are throwing at these guys because a) they have to throw the ball and b) wide receivers are generally bigger playmakers than tight ends, running backs, etc. in the passing game. You can use tight ends as outlets or occasional primary receivers, but it was 2016 – teams throw the ball out wide.
2. I’m not just a statistics guy, even though you try to paint me in that way sometimes. I’m capable of looking at play on the field and making determinations based on what I see. Just because I use statistics to back up my arguments doesn’t mean I’m unwilling to look at other things. If I were just a stats guy, I wouldn’t be on the Ty Isaac-over-Karan Higdon bandwagon. Along that same vein, your “Both guys averaged 1.5 INTs per year” argument is disingenuous. Two of Stribling interceptions came when a) Hawaii’s QB threw the ball right to him with no WR in the area and b) on an ill-advised fake field goal pitch against Florida. That accounts for a full 33% of his career picks. I don’t remember Lewis being gifted any interceptions like those. This isn’t to imply that Stribling was bad at coverage, but THESE are the types of things that cause fluctations, the “luck” sort of plays, when it comes to statistics. There are INTs/PBUs that come from good coverage (Stribling vs. Wisconsin, Lewis vs. Wisconsin, Lewis vs. Northwestern in 2015, Stribling vs. UNLV in 2015), and there are INTs/PBUs that come from being a guy who just happens to be there when something is handed to him (Stribling vs. Florida, Matt Godin vs. Northwestern a couple years ago, etc.).
LanknowsI certainly do not think of you as a “stats only guy”.
I think you use stats selectively to back up your opinions (which is fine, stats have to be applied with context and judgement), but where I take umbrage is when they don’t actually back up your point convincingly. LIke when backups have big YPC and so you think they should get more, even though starters have big YPC if you’re comparing the same situation.
To me that’s like the scene from Endzone (which I’m finally getting around to reading) where Hunter Lochman presents a simple stats story and Proppe stratifies by time of day and quality of opponent. Lochman used stats, he just didn’t use them with much consideration.
LanknowsCare to make a guess about if he will be drafted? And if so, what will his NFL career look like.
I would guess he is a career backup but has a good 5-7 year run with a handful of starts in injury replacement situations. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting regularly either though.
LanknowsCan you address what it means that
a) Lewis’ PBUs went down so dramatically in 2016?
b) Lewis had fewer INTs than Stribling in 2016 and the same over his entire career, despite playing far more snaps?
*If you want to steal 2 of Stribling’s as ‘gifts’ and reduce his total INTs to 2/3’s of Lewis you also have to acknowledge that he probably saw 2/3’s of Lewis playing time – at best.