Where We're At – 2017 Offense

[Lanknows]

Pre-Spring edition of premature expectations for each position group. To be revisited after Spring is done and again after the Freshman arrive. For reference: a C grade reflects an average Big Ten unit and an A grade reflect an elite Big Ten unit.

QB: A-

Having a returning starter with 2 years left is near ideal. Speight demonstrated all-conference caliber performance for much of the year before being injured. His ceiling is limited by arm strength and deep-pass accuracy may be an issue, but reasonable projections have Speight as one of the best QBs in the Big Ten. The battle for backup could be interesting but overall there is a nice mix of veteran experience and youthful talent. We’re in good shape.

RB: B+

There isn’t a proven starter here but Evans, Higdon, and Issac have all proven to be at least competent. Michigan will look to develop a complete back who can run inside and out, catch passes, and block reliably. Freshman may emerge into the rotation too – Walker’s getting some buzz and Samuels offering tantalizing athleticism. Drake Johnson might be around too.

Grade largely depends on your view of Evans. Was he an emerging star who stole carries away from an impressive senior? Is he limited to a situational playmaker role? I lean toward the optimistic view that he’s an emerging star, but that’s speculative. Regardless, big plays are likely to be more frequent with Smith out of the picture.

FB/TE: A-

Hill and Poggi return as rotating senior jumbo FBs. Hill’s a playmaker as a FBs go while Poggi is theoretically more reliable as a blocker. Both have H-back/TE experience and they could play beside each other.

Bunting, while not the attention-getter (both from fans and defenses) that Butt was, looks to be a capable replacement as a pass-catcher and a likely upgrade as a blocker. Wheatley projects as an improvement from the freshman version of the Wheatley/Asiasi rotation. TE play was very good last year and little dropoff should be expected.

But what about depth? Michigan could be in trouble if Wheatley or Bunting go down but McKeon’s buzz continues unabated since he arrived as an unheralded freshman. Gentry and Eubanks could be employed as Freshman Funchess types. Or Michigan can use fewer heavy sets, more Poggi/Hill, etc.

WR: B

The cost of leaning very heavily on Darboh and Chesson under Harbaugh’s tenure is a lack of experience for their replacements. Michigan hopes to make up for that with a boatload of talent. Reports have freshman contributor and rising sophomore Dylan Crawford as option #1 at WR. Beside him will be either the taller guys people talk about or the shorter guys people talk about. Taller guys are a mix of highly regarded freshman and buried veterans. Shorter guys include Perry, McDoom, and Johnson.

While nobody can say Player X and Player Y will start and be excellent, we can feel pretty confident that by the end of the season Michigan will have at least a couple of very good options at WR. Put Crawford and Perry in pencil if you need names but DPJ has to be considered as well. Despite what you’ve heard some places about freshman WR, great players can and do produce as freshman with regularity.

OL: D-

There’s no sugarcoating that Michigan has been at best mediocre on the OL over the last couple of years. Losing 3 seniors doesn’t typically help and cupboard is very far from full. Blame attrition, poor roster management, and lackluster player development – the past is the past.

Michigan has Mason Cole and a bunch of questions. Nobody knows what will happen but there’s reason to believe that true sophomores (Bredeson and Onwenu) will man 2 other starting spots. That leaves 2 more spots open to true freshman, red-shirt freshman, uninspiring veterans, and a guy we hope can walk. Positions are almost entirely in flux also.

Things are dire and spring buzz isn’t confidence instilling. Michigan hopes to mix a bunch of big bodies, 2 OL coaches, and a lot of our wishes and dreams together to produce a competent OL. If they manage to do it, it’ll be a helluva accomplishment by Frey and/or Drevno. If they don’t… there’s going to be some “How good really is Harbaugh?” and “Is it time to change the offense?” talk.

Big picture

It’s a transition year for Michigan. Losing multi-year starters at RB, WR, TE, and OL will do that. Hiring a new co-OC/pass game coordinator and new OL coach will do that too.

In 2018, Michigan projects to only lose starters at FB and Mason Cole but change is in the air. Michigan is recruiting a different brand of QBs and RBs than you might expect. TEs aren’t going anywhere but line of succession at FB reads nope.

The 2017 offense will have plenty of playmakers at the skill positions, arguably the best blocking it’s had at FB and TE in a long time, and an experienced decision-maker at QB. Michigan will always have a chance when it has ane excellent coaching staff and elite talent. But the OL is the big unknown. Again.

[Thunder]

I think the grade for the offensive line is a little unfair. Michigan’s line was not great in 2016, true, but there are some highly touted guys coming behind most of them. And Greg Frey has helped a great deal with offensive tackles in the past, which is a position that is in question more than the interior spots. I’d probably go D+ or C- there.

Otherwise, I think this is a pretty fair rundown.

[Lanknows]

I’m a big fan of Frey, but I don’t think the ingredients are there for success in 2017.

The situation isn’t as dire as it was in 2008 but, at OT, it might not be far off.

[Anonymous]

There is no doubt this is the weak link. However, between Drevno and Frey(one of the best teachers of the OL in the business), they will come up with well designed schemes that do not ask too much of the OL starting out but when done correctly will result in the chains moving. I think -and in no way consider this an insult on the graduates – but there moving on is actually a good thing. I have never seen the gurus that far off, so I think the lack of coaching under Funk had such a huge impact that a number of them lost the confidence needed to be great. This was demonstrated many times when one member would demonstrate a perfectly executed block, only to whiff on the next play. When you have the talent but are thinking……and actually hoping instead of being confident and playing naturally, instinctively it’s a sign of no confidence. I think though Frey and Drevno will bring them along in the manner described above which is wise and not unlike what Harbaugh did with Rudock. Require enough of them that they will have to be at their best to do it but keep it as simple as possible. When satisfied they are ready to move onto the next chapter, do so but not before. Think Frey will be more helpful than probably should be expected, but I have a feeling they’ll be doing C+ work by last month of season.

[GKblue]

I agree most of all with the first and last paragraphs of your “Big picture”.

If the premise is that a C grade represents an average B1G program then I see QB as B, RB as B- limited by the OL, WR as a wildcard B limited by QB and receiver experience with routes and timing, FB/TE as B, and the OL as a C or C- improving over the season.

In other words, good coaching and player development over the season will have to happen. I am concerned, but not ready to jump off a bridge.

[ragingbull]

good coaching and player development must occur over the course of every season – so youre right but its not just this year due to inexperience, its every single year. recruit your guys, then coach em up – player development is the lifeblood. recruiting all the 4 star talent in the world doesnt mean much if those players fail to grow and develop (or the coaches fail to properly deploy talent or scheme to their strengths).

youre right though, this staff has the opportunity to show everyone how they take care of business this fall. they have a big job to do and while i think theyll do ok, hopefully enough players take to it and develop fastest enough to fill the roles necessary to help the squad back to new years 6 bowl

[Lanknows]

Yeah – this is a great chance for the staff to prove themselves. Go down the line:

Is the Harbaugh/Hamilton/Drevno combo going to take Speight from solid to elite?

Is Harbaugh junior going to impact anything at RB or are we going to see fumbles and missed blocking assignments?

The talent goldmine at WR is there.

OL of course is the biggest one but not many coaching staffs have 2 guys as well qualified as Drevno and Frey. Much rides on their coaching ability. Your degree of faith in them, and what they can do with the pieces Michigan has may vary.

[GKblue]

@ ragingbull – Yes sir I agree with you that good coaching and player development must occur every year. I thought it to be intrinsic to good football and only intended to bring out the importance this season for emphasis because of our roster turnover.

[Lanknows]

QB: I think Speight has a decent shot at being the best QB in the Big Ten. The OL is the biggest factor in that, IMO.

RB: I’m bullish on Evans. I can’t remember such an impressive freshman season from any Michigan RB other than Mike Hart in the last 20 years. He also seems capable of making some of his own yards, beyond whatever the OL generates.

WR: As unproven as the group is, there is so much talent there that Michigan is all but guaranteed from having one of the 3 or 4 best WR groups in the conference. WR is a position where talent is more reliably translated to production than elsewhere like …

OL: I struggle to see how a group with 1 proven player across the entire unit can end up being an average Big Ten unit. I think a C grade is a best case scenario but I’m not going to put it as the expectation.

[Thunder]

I don’t think Speight will be the best QB in the Big Ten. First of all, Trace McSorley led the conference in passing efficiency last year by a wide margin (16 points over #2 Perry Hills, 17 over #3 Speight). Second, if you’re gung-ho about running factoring in, then J.T. Barrett is superior; he also had more TDs, the same number of INTs, and a similar completion percentage.

[Lanknows]

There is no question that McSorley and Barrett were better last year. Speight passing them would require superior development. This is where Harbaugh and Hamilton come into the equation.

[Thunder]

Then I think you have to consider Speight’s ceiling. Every player has a ceiling, so where can Speight get by this season that he didn’t get to by the end of last season? Physically, he’s probably the least talented of that bunch (Barrett, McSorley, Speight). Mentally, maybe he can surpass those guys, but they have coaches, too…and Barrett’s coach has produced a Heisman winner and multiple national championships in the past. Harbaugh’s no slouch, but I just don’t think Speight can pass those guys up when he doesn’t have any proven receivers and the OL is in question.

[Lanknows]

“you have to consider Speight’s ceiling. Every player has a ceiling, so where can Speight get by this season that he didn’t get to by the end of last season?”

Yes, that is the big question. IMO it is very uncommon for a player to hit their ceiling in their first season as a starter. If you look at the track record of red-shirt sophomores who started in Michigan uniforms, it is pretty outstanding in terms of where they went from there.

Maybe Speight breaks the mold, but I doubt it.

I do agree the OL could hold Speight back. It is the key to the offense and perhaps the team. But I have zero worries about a guy who completed 60% of his passes and had a 19-8 TD/INT ratio as a sophomore holding the team back.

Meyer is a great offensive mind but his QB development isn’t something that makes me think we will see Barrett make major strides forward. If any of these guys have already hit their ceiling it is him. McSorley is a tougher argument since he’s in the same class as Speight, so there it boils down to Harbaugh vs Franklin. I know which way I lean.

[Lanknows]

also have to consider that Speight got hurt at the end of the year. Had he not we might be talking about a national championship team. (probably not but maybe…)

[Lanknows]

I think there’s an argument that Speight is a B+ rather than an A-, but given he was one of the 3 best QBs in the conference last year as a sophomore and is likely to improve I don’t think it’s a very strong one.

The depth Michigan has at backup should nudge them ahead even if the Speight grade is broderline at B+/A-.

[je93]

Thanks for the write up Lanknows, you did well… but I gotta agree with GKBlue here

OL isn’t as bad as you think, unless this is a tactic to temper your own expectations. I’d say C-, and D+ at worst (we have a great staff)
QB, RB aren’t as great as you think either. I’d say B- and B, respectively… it’s not all feast ot famine!

Again, appreciate the post

GO BLUE

[Lanknows]

Frey’s first season at Michigan was 2008 – the worst OL in Michigan history (at least in terms of talent and experience). There’s only so much a new coach can do.

[Lanknows]

I only gave A grades to potential all-conference players backed by solid depth. Speight, Hill, Bunting or Wheatley could all be there IMO.

I think there’s a remote chance that Evans or Crawford or even DPJ end up there too but I would put those chances below 20%.

[WindyCityBlue]

QB-Too high. If DeShaun Watson is an A, we’re not an A-. Speight is a quality QB, but nothing special, and we have nobody with proven game performance behind him. I’d give Speight a solid B, but he has too many weaknesses to go higher than a B+ at best. He’s certainly not a liability, but neither is he capable of carrying a team on his shoulders.

RB-probably about right. There’s potential, some proven production, and decent depth here, but the lack of a returning starter keeps us below A level for the time being.

FB/TE- Agree with A- for FB. Hill is very good here, and Poggi is a decent backup. TE is a B at best, with no proven pass-catching production coming back this year. Like RB, potential and decent depth, but less proven talent. Blocking alone doesn’t get you to A level.

WR-B is reasonable for now, but I would not be shocked if we are at A level by the end of the season. Lots more potential than at TE, but very limited on proven production, and still not sold that Perry will be playing this fall.

OL-Too low, if this is on a curve taking into account all of DI-A. We may be average or slightly below average for a 1-A team, but not that far below average. If 60-70% of 1-A teams have better Oline performance than us this year, Drevno needs to lose his job.

[Lanknows]

The grading ‘curve’ is based on the Big Ten. Michigan’s competition is not “all of D-1A”. IMO it’s generous to even include the Rutgers and Purdues of the world.

Watson was an A+ (all american). All conference first team is an A (Barrett). Speight was a B or B+ last year (all conference 3rd team). Given he is a RS Soph and is coached by Harbaugh and will have a new QB coach in Hamilton, I’m assuming he’ll make a significant step forward. The OL could derail that.

TE is not ‘proven’ because Jake Butt was an excellent multiyear starter who took most of the snaps. TE is ‘proven’ because Wheatley split snaps at the 2nd TE position and Bunting stepped up when Butt got hurt in the Bowl game. You really can’t ask for much better when replacing a multi-year starter.

As for TE potential – I think Wheatly is getting overrated by some people but his potential is all american level. That may be true for some of our WR but none of them are 3rd year players who have gotten it done like Wheatley has.

Michigan may have the worst OL in the Big Ten next year, though I hope not.

[WindyCityBlue]

Sure, if you’re going to inflate grades, you can move anyone up to an A level. My evaluation was based on the best being an A, with no A+ awarded. But you’re assuming that Speight has it in him to make a “significant” step forward. He has good coaching, yes, and will likely improve, but his limited arm strength and lack of running ability and overall athleticism cannot be fixed, and will put a ceiling on how good he can be, compared to QBs who have all of those. If a QB is not a threat as a runner in this day and age of college football, it’s hard to give him an A unless he is an absolutely elite passer, and I doubt that Speight will be.

And as noted elsewhere, losing your starter at TE makes it a huge stretch to predict “A” level performance for the next season. That’s just the way that position is. This far in advance of the season, the only teams I would give an A to are the ones with a productive returning starter. Sure, some teams that don’t have that may end up with a new guy breaking out big, but forecasting which ones will at this point involves heavy doses of guesswork and wishful thinking.

[Lanknows]

We’ll find out of course. As I see it, it’s highly pessimistic (and a bit vain) to assume Harbaugh and company went with a guy they don’t think can be great. We know O’Korn has a high ceiling, we think Peters does, why would a staff renowned for QB development pick the noodle-armed no-talent to focus on?

Accuracy, decision-making, and pocket presence are far more important than arm-strength or straight-line speed. Speight flashed excellence in these areas last year.

Let’s put it another way — who was the last Michigan QB had a better year as a sophomore? Speight’s sophomore year was only a hair off Henne’s Junior year pinnacle. Navarre and Griese were never as good. Neither was Brady statistically. These were all NFL QBs and Speight’s sophomore year was better than any of theirs.

Speight’s sophomore year numbers are in line with the greats. Most of those guys made a significant leap in the junior years.

It’s possible that Speight diverges from the typical career arc and hits a plateau. It would be unusual if so. Given the coaches we have, I would say it’s highly unlikely that’s the case.

Keep in mind a year ago we didn’t know who was starting and were just beggining to hear rumblings about Speight taking charge and passing over a proven D1 starter. Now he’s a full-fledged leader.

I think he has a good chance of being the best QB in the conference next year and that’s something given how successful the guy down in Columbus has been. OL competancy is needed though.

[Lanknows]

I don’t think it’s grade inflation to use the conference as the measurement stick. I can use Alabama as the yardstick instead but then you’ll get every single position at B and that’s not very informative.

[Lanknows]

Expectations are a subjective thing, but I tried to approach this logically. Anyone who backed up an elite player gets the benefit of the doubt unless they’ve given me reason not too. Especially if they played pretty well when given the chance. Those guys have both a legitimate excuse for not playing and could plausibly be excellent themselves.

Hurst, Gary, Winovich, Mone, Wheatley, and Evans were all rotation players last year. They were backups who did well, who would have played a lot more if they weren’t behind NFL-bound vets.

Bunting, Crawford, McDoom, Bush, Hill, Kinnell and Metellus looked good in more limited duty.

Those guys are going to be a cut above projected starters like Onwenu who sat behind unimpressive starters last year.

Bunting, Wheatley, and McKeon have all gotten hype the entire time they’ve been at Michigan. There is a damn good reason those guys haven’t seen a lot of snaps. They’re unproven for a reason and while that does add a degree of uncertainty, it doesn’t necessarily have to downgrade expectations.

I will be pretty disappointed if our TEs aren’t amonst the 2 or 3 best units in the conference, as they were last year.

[WindyCityBlue]

Speight is not backed by “solid depth”, unless by “solid depth” you mean “other guys listed at the same position on the roster”. Hill is not potential all-conference, since they don’t even include the antiquated position of FB on the all-Big Ten team. Or H-back, if you’re thinking of going there. Bunting and Wheatley have done essentially nothing that would project to all-conference performance at TE. Are you really saying that they are among the top 3 or 4 TEs returning in the Big Ten this year? They had 8 catches between them last year. That’s just the way it is at TE, when your starter who got most of the catches is gone. You’re not going to have two guys that productive on the same team, so if you lose your #1 guy, you’re left with finger-crossing, especially compared to teams that have their starter back. Nothing else justifies an A.

And if you’re projecting all-conference, why not Cole? He was actually 2nd team last year.

[Lanknows]

We have a proven D-1 starter as a worst-case senario. We have young blue chip recruits on top of that. In the Big Ten, whose got it better than us? OSU and….?

[Lanknows]

Cole is an A-grade player but I’m grading the unit as a whole.

Cole’s potential move to LT is bad news for him individually (he struggled there and is undersized) and a flashing danger sign for what’s going on at OL as a whole.

[Lanknows]

Again, there is a very good reason Wheatley and Bunting haven’t caught a lot of passes. They’ve played well. I’m sure you can list teams with more returning catches but can you name 3 Big Ten teams that you genuinely expect to have better TE play than Michigan?

[Lanknows]

Perry sounds like he’s unlikely to return but I don’t think it affects the WR unit too badly.

Still too hard to have a firm opinion on the overall offense with the OL in so much flux. The rumblings on Runyan, Kugler, and Ruiz are encouraging but ultimately they are pretty guarded comments that don’t tell us too much. Still hoping for a few guys to really make a leap beside Bredeson, Onwenu, and Cole.

[Lanknows]

Post-spring I don’t see much change. A few guys have moved up their expectations (e.g., Black, Peters, Kugler, Runyan) and a few guys have been dialed back a bit, but the position groups pretty much are what we expected.

Need Onwenu and Bredeson to keep getting better.

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