Why does Harbaugh extend so many offers?

[INTJohn]

While looking at commits and offers, I noticed that Michigan has extended 306 offers in 2017 and, because its in my DNA to analyize compare & correlate data and look for patterns & questions, I compared this with a few other programs. From there it rapiidly escalated into a crusade and left me asking, “Why does Harbaugh extend so many offers?” I have several ideas about this but can’t really come up with any explicit differentiation so perhaps the answer(s) are much more complex than a simple linear exclusivity:

Offers extended by programs in FBS rankings:
Clem 137
Al 256
USC 192
Wash 103
OU 184
OSU 139
PSU 180
FSU 161
Wis 155
MICHIGAN………….306
OkSt 137
Stnfrd 65
LSU 195
Fla 229
Average # of offers extended by the above = 167

From here I compared the offer #’s in the B10:
PSU 180 Wi 155
OSU 139 Iw 118
Mich 306 Neb 280
In 253 Min 175
Md 269 NW 86
MSU 203 Ill 379
R 248 P 255
Average # of offers = 217 but minus Mich & Ill it is 198

Then I compared the offers between the so-called Brain Skoolz:
Stanford 65
NW 86
VANDY 248
Duke 198
Notre Dame 206
UCLA 176
USC 192
UNC 262
BC 216
Michgian…….306
The averaqe here = 198 and agian Michigan far exceeds both the mean as well as the standard deviation.

Then I wanted to know any other schools with high #’s of offers:
Ill 379
Tenn 376
Miss 307
Miss St 358
Michigan 306
Don’t know if there’s any favorable correlation?

So there’s where I’m at. I have a few ideas as to possible explanations but would like to extend an invitation for dialogue & discussion as to WHY Harbaugh seems to be out of the realm of successfully established programs – both football wise as well as academic wise; when it comes to extending offers to recruits.
Does it ‘cheapen’ the value of the offer?
Is it simple geography? or publicity?
Is it a matter of throw enuff shit on the wall & hope something stix?
OR ? your thoughts.

Thanx……………..INTJohn

[Thunder]

1. I think the primary reason is that offering is the way of the world these days. You can’t get your foot in the door if you don’t offer. It’s an insult, just like we saw with Antjuan Simmons. Even though we offered him about 15 months before National Signing Day, he was peeved that “took so long.”
2. I don’t necessarily think Harbaugh even knows whom he ideally wants when signing day comes around. A guy looks fantastic one day, and then something pops up or a better prospect comes along, and now he wants another guy instead. He’s a good evaluator of talent (IMO), but he can somewhat afford to be picky.
3. I think Harbaugh is kind of turning the recruiting process on its head – not by himself, because other schools are offering 300+ players, but with others. It used to be that you had to work for an offer, so it was a competition to get an offer. Now you have to offer, so Harbaugh’s like, “Fine, here’s an offer because we’re interested. But that doesn’t mean I want you to commit.” So then it becomes a competition to earn your way into the class, or to get a spot in the class before it fills up.
4. Michigan isn’t at a point where it can be extremely picky about who it offers. Alabama, Ohio State, etc. can be very selective because they have the pull to reel in a high percentage of guys they want badly. Michigan needs to offer 200+ kids, at the very least, to get enough highly regarded talent to make it work.

[Lanknows]

I think you make some good points but Michigan can operate how it wants too. Hoke offered far fewer players and still got good results in recruiting.

John’s numbers indicate it isn’t the way of the world, and some teams pursue a different strategy.

Simmons being an AA kid is what drove the feeling that it took so long. If he lived in CA he probably wouldn’t feel that way. Michigan had no reason not to offer unless they didn’t think highly of him – they were the outliers in that regard especially when Simmons was considered a top 100 kid earlier in the recruiting cycle.

The difference I think with Alabama and OSU is that they have a waiting list of local 4-star kids who will come the minute an offer is on the table. Michigan’s backyard isn’t quite as talented and is divided with MSU/ND. So our Plan B kids are 3-stars from the north.

I have no issue with how Harbaugh is recruiting as long as he is clear with kids about what an offer and, more importantly, a commitment, actually means.

They should be called preliminary invitations and tentative reservations.

[INTJohn]

Good stuff; thanx.
I’m back from the weekend playoff’s – Go Pats. I was going to quit rooting for New England some years back but Goodell’s actions continues to encourage me to now want Tom Terrific to get one for the thumb – but nuther topik.

Back to ‘Offers’: Alabama somewhat surprised me as to the number of the offers they give as their success would seem to indicate that they could be more selective like Ohio St. but……?

There does appear to be several fuzzy patterns at play – they are not clearcut & distinct but can be pointed out tho they are not distinctly defined.

First tho; I realized after posting this that it may have been helpful to have included a few more programs:
Miami(ytM) 270
TX 106
Ore 203
Col 250
None of the above fit the few categories I threw up originally but because of academics, traditional field success or geographic location its probably best to list them.

Back to fuzzy indicators:
1 – One fuzzy factor regarding offers seems to be proximity to a talent rich environment.
2 – Another seems to be the number of years a HC has been at a particular institution.
3 – A third is the general overall success of a particular program.

I’ll elaborate on the above in abit – probably in another post but first I want to post a recent history on offers by both Michigan & Stanford – that included Harbaugh as a common element.

Michigan
17 – 306
16 – 233
15 – 132
14 – 115
13 – 140
12 – 139
11 – 125
10 – 62
09 – 92
08 – 94
07 – 99
06 – 88

Stanford
17 – 65
16 – 83
15 – 79
14 – 80
13 – 65
12 – 104
11 – 109
10 – 67
09 – 98
08 – 73
07 – 51
06 – 59

At Michigan, The time period cover Carr’s last years as well as RR and Hoke and the low number of offers by the 3 preceding staffs is in direct contrast to Harbaugh’s large increase.

Harbaugh apparently exhibited the same behavior while at Stanford as again a low number of offers prior to his arrival and Shaw scaling back to those prior levels after Harbaugh’s departure.

OK – I need a time out here but will continue this.

Thanx…………..INTJohn

[INTJohn]

As I continue this doctoral thesis:

I think, Thunder, your opinion expressed in Item 2 is certainly a part of the Why. I, too, think Harbaugh at least to some extent isn’t sure what he wants. Like the drunk cad at the club at midnight, he’s hittn on everything ‘female’; Harbaugh being the Football Idiot Savant I think he is has never seen a football player he didn’t like……..
I remember reading years back how Harbaugh was always bumping heads with Stanford Admissions regarding potential recruits. I presume this is no longer a major obstacle for him at Michigan and like the energetic dog thats been on a chain for far too long, once it gets loose the dog may ‘run wild’ for a few days.

Also, I think geography plays a big part: Michigan is in the coldest, most wintry location of any of the traditional football powers and the tremendous demographic shift in population over the last 3 decades has left it wanting. (If DP-J for example were not in Michigan’s backyard is there any doubt that he most likely would be at Stanford?)

Also, in part due to the above, Michigan is no longer anywhere near any kind of a Football Rich Environment. The only state in the B10 area that can be construed as a football rich place is Ohio and, Ohio State – due to in state lack of B10 competition and both Michigan’s & PSU’s recent downturns – has solidified a complete lockdown on any D1 P5 players.

Even in Football Rich environs, too, there is a tremendous amount of competition for the available talent:
Georgia & Florida combine for 370 & 439 rated players (247 site) but there are a lot of top programs that this pool is divided up with including neighboring states too include Alabama.
eg:# ranked/rated # of players
Texas 501 ; again a lot of in state schools as well as programs in neighboring states.
Florida 439 ditto
Ca. 375 ditto
Ga 370 ditto

Plus secondary rich states:
Tenn 127
Miss 143
La 129
Al 113
and Ohio with 113 is the only B10 area state with any amount of talent pool players.

So, the only thing Michigan really has going for it anymore as a National Contender is its overall 120 year Football Rich Tradition as well as its current head coach. Even Academics, I think are somewhat secondary to most recruits and to those that it is paramount there are equally highly ranked academic schools lying within the locales of the talent rich areas…….

So to summarize:
Simple demographics overall directly leading to a lack of enough locale talent for the University of Michigan has it behind the 8 ball – this will not change for the foreseeable future if ever;

The climate itself of where the University lies means one has to cast a wide net Nationally to find enough quality talent to want to relocate any distance to a more adverse climate.

The personal choice as to the type & quality of player that is unique to Harbaugh’s own style & vision of a team built & coached by him & his staff I think lends itself to a ‘shotgun’ approach to recruiting.

Whew……! I’m weary and going to close my dissertation but welcome, thoughts, ideas, conversation as I think its interesting but from my perspective I’ve probably beaten it to death.

Thanx………..INTJohn

[ragingbull]

some interesting points, all around. and an interesting topic.

just figured id copy / paste the following from an above post as its a significant point:

“The difference I think with Alabama and OSU is that they have a waiting list of local 4-star kids who will come the minute an offer is on the table. Michigan’s backyard isn’t quite as talented and is divided with MSU/ND. So our Plan B kids are 3-stars from the north.”

theres plenty of reasons for # of offers, timing of offers, etc, and recruiting, like the game in general, is always changing. its almost too much to try to break down. but the above quote covers a decent portion of the issue. michigan is a major public u and a blue blood program with proud, successful tradition but theyre also not the only game in town as obviously they share the state with msu and have nd and osu right down the road. michigan had it made back in the day when detroit was booming, they were 1 of few programs with consistent national tv presence, etc but the game has changed and in combo with demographic shifts and whatnot, theyve had to adjust their blueprint.

virtually every other top program either resides in a talent rich home state, in close proximity to talent rich areas or operates as the sole power 5 program in state – michigan has to fight uphill in many regards.

not exactly complete argument or stance here, just pointing out a few factors and highlighting m’s unique position of attempting to secure talent on the level of osu, bama, fsu, lsu, usc, uga, etc without crazy amount of consistent homegrown talent in backyard. id be surprised if they ever really dipped back below that top 1/4 or whatever of teams highest # of offers. well see now that harbaugh has been here several years and isnt playing catchup with 2019 kids and beyond like he was with 2016 or 2017 or whatever – maybe the # offers remain fairly constant, maybe not and maybe they decrease a bit. but theyll still likely remain in that top tier of power 5s in terms of offers simply bc they must do so in order to ensure they touch in state, midwest, east coast, cali, southeast, etc – they currently need to offer more kids than lsu for example in order to have shot at securing the same quantity of elite prospects (at least most years – though some years it might be like when hoke was able to sign like 20 4 stars from within 500 miles or whatever)

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