Mailbag: Are these 3-stars better than the old 3-stars?

Mailbag: Are these 3-stars better than the old 3-stars?


April 18, 2016
J'Marick Woods 795x

J’Marick Woods

A question from UM_1973 got me to respond to something I have been meaning to address for a couple weeks now:

Thunder, I noticed that our current group of commits are made up of mostly 3 stars. However, unlike last year’s bunch of early commits, you seem to be more impressed by this year’s bunch than last year’s. Based on that, do you expect that there will be less decommitments in this year’s class compared to last year’s class?

To start off here, it’s obviously important to take a look at the current 3-star commits and last year’s.

2017 3-stars committed: S J’Marick Woods, RB A.J. Dillon, DT Phillip Paea, FB Chase Lasater, RB Kurt Taylor, TE Carter Dunaway, CB Benjamin St-Juste

2016 3-stars committed by the end of August 2015: RB Kingston Davis, RB Kiante Enis, LB Devin Gil,  LB Dele’ Harding, LB Dytarious Johnson, TE Sean McKeon, S Josh Metellus, LB David Reese, CB Antwaine Richardson, CB Sir Patrick Scott, QB Victor Viramontes, DE Rashad Weaver

Hit the jump for more on the differences between the two classes.

As for my belief in their skills, Michigan is reaching much less in the 2017 class than they were in 2016. Coming off of a 5-7 season and a firing of Brady Hoke, I think Jim Harbaugh felt the need to get a bunch of commits early in the class. It’s better to get some early momentum with guys who have potential than to possibly scuffle through another poor or mediocre season, all the while trying to convince elite prospects to join. At the end of a cycle like that, you’re doing your best to flip guys from Purdue and UConn and MAC schools. I think Harbaugh knew all along that if he got interest from the best and brightest, he would find a way to send some of those lower rated guys off to other programs.

I think my concern with those 2016 prospects was warranted. Only one player who decommitted from the early part of the recruiting cycle ended up in arguably an equal or better spot, and that’s linebacker David Reese, whom Michigan wanted as a fullback instead. The rest of the decommits from that group did not find greener pastures: Enis signed with Indiana, Harding with Illinois, Richardson with Maryland, Scott with Marshall, Viramontes with Cal, and Weaver with Pitt. Some of those are decent programs, but even when they publicly went back on the market, the Alabamas and LSUs and Florida States and Ohio States didn’t come calling. The only players from that group that I sort of regret losing are Viramontes and Weaver; Viramontes was an intriguing athlete who could play multiple positions (QB, FB, LB, S), and Weaver made significant strides from his junior to senior years. The rest of those players are pretty forgettable, and even Viramontes and Weaver aren’t can’t-miss prospects.

Victor Viramontes 625x

I do miss Victor Viramontes

As for the guys who stayed, I think they are mostly role players. Davis is a bruising runner who might be a fullback down the road. Gil is a physically limited safety who has been bulking up with the plan to play linebacker. Johnson looked good on film as a junior, but unlike Weaver, he didn’t make a lot of strides in his senior year and his academic status remains up in the air. McKeon is not a standout athlete, but he’ll be playing for the best program in the country when it comes to developing tight ends. Metellus is another physically limited safety who did not garner much interest from other programs. The player who stands out most in that pack is McKeon, and no offense to him, but that’s mainly because Jim Harbaugh will be his head coach. So you have a gaggle of players who weren’t Michigan-caliber, who have intriguing potential, or who are role players.

The 2017 class is not shaping up the same way, though. Some of them are 3-stars, of course, but most have higher ceilings. Fullback Chase Lasater is perhaps the biggest reach, but his job will be to run through brick walls and his film shows him making his best effort to do that. I tend not to put too much stock in fullback recruiting, because fullbacks shine most when you get on the field and see who’s willing to crush skulls play after play. Players who are tough and who are not bumbling oafs generally do okay there.

Meanwhile, Phillip Paea fielded offers from Notre Dame, Oregon, and USC, and his offensive guard film is promising. I am less enthused about film of him playing defense, but with Harbaugh at the helm, he’s going to get a shot on offense if the defensive tackle thing doesn’t work. We beat out Notre Dame for Dillon, and he’s a Fighting Irish legacy; he shows some nice running instincts that I think mesh well with the way De’Veon Smith runs, and obviously that style of running has caught Harbaugh’s eye. I think Dunaway is less athletic than McKeon, but again, Harbaugh seems to have the Midas Touch with tight ends. Whereas Richardson and Sir Patrick Scott didn’t stand out to me in any way, Harbaugh has shown before that he uses and finds success with bigger players in the secondary (Jeremy Clark, Richard Sherman, etc.). I’m not in love with St-Juste, but I see where he might fit. Woods has good all-around skills, which make him a borderline 4-star prospect. So I think all of the 2017 players are decent fits, whereas in 2016, it was like one of those old Goofy cartoons where he’s plugging the leaks in a canoe with any old finger or toe that can get the job done for a few seconds.

In summary:

2017 Taylor > 2016 Enis
2017 Woods > 2016 Richardson
2017 St-Juste > 2016 Scott
2017 Paea > 2016 Weaver
2017 Dillon = 2016 Davis
2017 Dunaway < 2016 McKeon
2017 Lasater < 2016 Reese

Granted, there were more 2016 prospects included who are not on the list directly above, since I counted up through August of last year. However, I think you can see that there were a lot of tweeners without a clear position (Is Enis a RB or WR or S? Is Davis a RB or FB? Is Reese a FB or LB? Is Viramontes a QB or FB or LB?) This year I think Michigan has players who are good enough to establish themselves at one position without having to worry about them waffling between two spots, and they have the size and skills to develop into prototypical candidates for Harbaugh players.

15 comments

  1. Comments: 1356
    Joined: 8/13/2015
    Roanman
    Apr 18, 2016 at 8:53 AM

    I thought Reese was a better LB prospect than Mbem-Bosse, although 2 inches shorter at about the same weight.

    I think Lasatar is a better FB and inside LB prospect than was Viramontes, although Vicious Vic is enormously intriguing as a QB. I think Vic blew it not signing on with Rich Rod.

    • Comments: 1356
      Joined: 8/13/2015
      Roanman
      Apr 18, 2016 at 9:07 AM

      I didn’t realize until a moment ago that McKeon is mildly higher rated on his composite than was Dunaway, although I can’t imagine that he is playing the level of competition that Dunaway faced week in/out at the high school level.

      I watched the little bit of film there is on St Juste again. He’s long and tall. I dunno, I’m not feeling Richard Sherman but I’m for sure pulling for him.

      • Comments: 3844
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        Apr 18, 2016 at 4:02 PM

        I do think Dunaway is playing better competition than McKeon did.

        • Comments: 1356
          Joined: 8/13/2015
          Roanman
          Apr 18, 2016 at 5:25 PM

          Oopses, going to fast and got my kids/years backwards. Yeah the Catholic league has to be much tougher from top to bottom than about anything going on in Massachusetts.

  2. Comments: 77
    Joined: 1/22/2016
    Tartarsauce
    Apr 18, 2016 at 10:30 AM

    McKeon is a surprisingly very good athlete. At the New Jersey combine last year he measured in at 6-5, 227 and ran a 4.69s 40, 4.58s shuttle, 36.2 vertical. Those numbers are quite a bit better than most of the top rated TEs last year including Nauta, Asiasi, Hausmann, Kaden Smith, etc. I’m excited to see what he looks like with a few years under Harbaugh’s teaching.

    https://twitter.com/mckeon_sean/status/592324921415598080

    • Comments: 29
      greggoblue
      Apr 18, 2016 at 4:21 PM

      Personally think McKeon has an incredibly high ceiling as a TE prospect under Harbaugh. You don’t see many TE prospects taking end-arounds in high school. Just a really good athlete from an under-recruited area of the country.

      Eubanks, TWJr, Asiasi and McKeon – all very high-ceiling prospects. The future is bright at the TE position.

    • Comments: 262
      Joined: 8/12/2015
      Painter Smurf
      Apr 21, 2016 at 12:45 PM

      The younger Harbaugh has said in interviews that they look for at least one “dominant trait” in their TE’s, I took that to mean they’d rather have a kid with a high-ceiling in one facet rather than a lower-ceiling prospect who is more well-rounded.
      McKeon is definitely a plus athlete for his size who has nice potential as a receiving weapon. His HS offense did not showcase him at all as a receiver, but UM took notice of his speed and agility. The TE position group is getting pretty crowded, but McKeon is a nice piece to have in that competition.

  3. Comments: 77
    Joined: 1/22/2016
    Tartarsauce
    Apr 18, 2016 at 10:48 AM

    Good stuff Thunder. I really think Dillon is going to be a work horse at UM. As you said, he’s got that physical running style with instincts/balance that Harbaugh likes. At NY’s Nike combine, he measured in at 230 lbs and ran a 4.64s 40, so he’s got some deceptive speed too.

  4. Comments: 1364
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    WindyCityBlue
    Apr 18, 2016 at 9:39 PM

    Frankly, it doesn’t really matter if this year’s three stars are better than last year’s since we won’t be playing last year’s recruiting class. The real issue is that we’re still stuck with too many three stars (this year and last year), while the teams we’re going to be competing against, like Ohio State, are landing 4 and 5 stars. It doesn’t help to say that our recruits are going to improve because, Harbaugh! OSU’s recruits have just as much potential to improve because, Meyer! And it’s a silly argument to say that ours are preferable because they have more room to improve, because if that were true, why not recruit all 2 stars?

    And no, saying you trust our coaches is not an argument, either. There are a lot of good coaches out there. Talent wins.

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Apr 18, 2016 at 9:45 PM

      Well, somebody’s grumpy…

      It does matter if this year’s 3-stars are better, because better players equal a better team. You said so yourself. No, they’re not playing last year’s class, just like 5-stars in 2017 wouldn’t be playing 3-stars in 2016. It’s just a question and an answer about the talent level of the players who are committed.

      • Comments: 1364
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        WindyCityBlue
        Apr 18, 2016 at 9:57 PM

        The fact remains that, in the end, we’re not competing against ourselves. Sure, you’d always like to be better than last year’s team, but if we’re still looking up at OSU, how much difference does it really make? You need elite recruits to compete at a championship level, and we’re still settling for too many guys who aren’t even close. Our standards for talent are still far too low, and we spend tons of time trying to convince ourselves that our 3 stars will somehow be as good as OSU’s 4 and 5 stars.

        • Comments: 3844
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Apr 18, 2016 at 10:01 PM

          That’s all well and good, but it’s not really the topic here. The question wasn’t “Are these 3-stars as good as Ohio State’s 5-stars?” You’re arguing about a topic that wasn’t presented in the first place. It’s a fair point, but in a different conversation.

          • Comments: 1364
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            WindyCityBlue
            Apr 18, 2016 at 10:07 PM

            I’m pointing out that it is a reason for concern that you need to address this topic in the first place. You can bet OSU or Alabama fans are not worried about the relative quality of their three star recruits from this year to next year.

            • Comments: 3844
              Joined: 7/13/2015
              Apr 18, 2016 at 10:37 PM

              Ohio State signed eight Rivals 3-stars in 2016, and Alabama signed nine. I’m not an OSU or Alabama fan and don’t hang out on their message boards, but I’m guessing fans of every team with a significant following have questions about their lowest rated recruits. We are not unique in that aspect.

  5. Comments: 262
    Joined: 8/12/2015
    Painter Smurf
    Apr 21, 2016 at 12:36 PM

    Good post.
    Last year was unique in that a lot of desirable prospects were going to be in wait-and-see mode with UM until the fall. And a lot of top kids will not make a move until there is a perceived scarcity of scholarships. So it was a sound strategy for JH to get some commits rolling in early, even if they were “soft”. Of course, this will not be an issue going forward and I am sure JH is becoming more selective with early commits.

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