MLive: Michigan tight ends try to explain red-zone struggles

MLive: Michigan tight ends try to explain red-zone struggles


September 21, 2017

The red zone issues are becoming a huge, huge concern (LINK).

Hit the jump for some pictures of the lovely Anllela Sagra.

20 comments

  1. Comments: 434
    Joined: 9/13/2015
    michymich
    Sep 21, 2017 at 2:48 PM

    The good news is it seems like the new strategy is to simplify the offense and get back to basics while letting Speight do what he does best, well at least when it comes to passing, which is to throw to bigger targets.

    I want to see a UM offense that relies on their defense, plays field position, tries to establish the run to set up play action, turns Speight loose to let him go to bigger targets and puts him in favorable 2nd and 3rd down positions.

    I’d rather grind the clock with Speight than throw balls all over the place with a hit and miss miss mentality. Let’s start winning ugly and wear down our opponents. It’s going to have to be Lloyd Ball unfortunately.

    I think UM is going to score some td’s on Saturday.

    UM 28
    PU 10

    • Comments: 666
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      WindyCityBlue
      Sep 21, 2017 at 4:39 PM

      The problem with “winning ugly” is that you can’t PLAN to do it. If you’re playing that badly, you’re chances of losing (which is always ugly) go way up.

      • Comments: 434
        Joined: 9/13/2015
        michymich
        Sep 21, 2017 at 6:06 PM

        That is true WCB but this offense is no where near playing well and I don’t expect this team to all of a sudden win pretty. I will take a crawl before a walk in the Red Zone. As LK said below, he guarantees that UM won’t go 2 for the next 14 rz attempts so if UM goes 6 out of 14 then I will take it. Assuming the same number of trips and Nordin continuing his great kicking.

  2. Lanknows
    Comments: 3460
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Sep 21, 2017 at 4:12 PM

    I will GUARANTEE that Speight does not go 2 for his next 14 in the red zone. Can anyone guarantee me that the run game will beat 2 YPC?

    • Comments: 434
      Joined: 9/13/2015
      michymich
      Sep 21, 2017 at 5:59 PM

      No I can’t make that guarantee. I can guarantee that if Speight happens to struggle and doesn’t get consistent OL protection and the running game isn’t overly productive then I will hear about sample size after the game.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 3460
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Sep 22, 2017 at 1:45 PM

      no takers, no surprise

      • Comments: 678
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Sep 22, 2017 at 3:59 PM

        Randomness applies. Will you guarantee we’ll see CFU or Maryland Speight, and not 2017 numbnuts mistakes?

        Right now, all I’m asking for is the latter

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 3460
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Sep 23, 2017 at 5:21 AM

        The opposite of “Speight is bad” is not – “Speight is heisman level good”. If Speight played at Maryland level every game that would be the case. The standard you defined is late-5th-year Rudock – which is basically a heisman caliber player. That’s an unreasonable standard, IMO. That is not my standard.

        All I’ve ever said is that Speight isn’t bad. That Speight is fine. That Speight isn’t THE problem with the offense. *

        Speight has 2 INTs in 3 games. Projected out over a season that’s 8 INTs. That would be great for a full year.

        The fumbles (3 in 3 games, I think) projects to 12 in the season – which would be awful. Given last year, I don’t think so. Unless he has contracted fumbilitis. Something that doesn’t exist, I think.

        The focus on mistakes was your deal, not mine. I have never been worried about TOs as a problem with Speight. I expect Speight to have more TOs this year than last, given an inexperienced supporting cast and more responsibility. He was great at TO-avoidance last year (overall – obviously not against OSU). Will be hard to repeat that.

        I did expect Speights usage to go up significantly – more completions, yards and TDs, etc. Not seeing that so far, or even close really, which is the disappointing part.

        *I did say more than this. I said Speight would be better this year than he was last year, which was pretty solid in aggregate. So far we haven’t seen it. Lot’s of season to go though.

        • Comments: 678
          Joined: 1/19/2016
          je93
          Sep 23, 2017 at 11:28 AM

          No takers, no surprise

  3. Comments: 434
    Joined: 9/13/2015
    michymich
    Sep 21, 2017 at 6:32 PM

    From Mgoblog. This is fair.

    Speight’s getting sped up by his mediocre pass protection, but make no mistake: it is mediocre. It is not terrible, or even bad. Per Football Outsiders the average NFL team gives up a pressure 27% of the time, and while college is different for a lot of reasons I’d be surprised if that wasn’t pretty close. Michigan’s protection metrics so far: 69%, 80%, 69%. That’s not much different than it was last year, when Speight was operating at a higher level. He is making more mistakes, regardless of the youth around him. I’ve kept an eagle eye out for it and tried to give Speight a fair shake when a ball goes wide and it may or may not be on him.

    • Comments: 678
      Joined: 1/19/2016
      je93
      Sep 21, 2017 at 7:01 PM

      Sooo… The stat guys are starting to come around to those who used the eye test earlier

      • Comments: 434
        Joined: 9/13/2015
        michymich
        Sep 21, 2017 at 9:45 PM

        I am rooting for Speight to play well. It doesn’t serve my fan interest to have UM lose. I don’t want JOK. I think the staff needs to get his mojo back and start simplifying the offense and let him sink or swim. The staff (Drevno) seem to have been spooked by that Fla game and want to hide his deficiencies by throwing more difficult passes to avoid the turnover.

        I am really looking forward to this week because not only is it on the road but this staff is obviously going to make some changes.

        • Comments: 678
          Joined: 1/19/2016
          je93
          Sep 21, 2017 at 10:25 PM

          If we can keep turnovers to 1 or less, we win by 10

          Can we? Not one of our turnovers have been because the opposing team made a great play, they’ve been gifts. DPJ & Evans were pulled for their goofs, but I don’t think there’s enough trust in JOK to do the same to WS

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 3460
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Sep 22, 2017 at 1:42 PM

        cook is arguing against the numbers. but yes the ‘stats guys ‘ will come around if the outliers stop being outliers.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 3460
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Sep 22, 2017 at 1:44 PM

          actually he’s using the numbers he invents as facts, even though they are not in line with anything else. these are rationalizations….

        • Comments: 678
          Joined: 1/19/2016
          je93
          Sep 22, 2017 at 4:01 PM

          “When the outliers stop being outliers… ”
          🤔

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 3460
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Sep 23, 2017 at 5:35 AM

            that’s called sample size.

            it’s yet to happen. As expected. You get all riled up about 2 TOs in one game and say it’s a problem. 2 TO/game is bad. we’re down to half that now – no longer a problem. sample size solved the panic. the outliers stopped being outliers.

            This is the rational/logical fact-based perspective vs the overheated emotional reactive one.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 3460
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Sep 23, 2017 at 5:43 AM

            So what I mean in this context is Speight having a low completion percentage, low YPA, low QBR.

            Right now those are outliers compared to the larger sample size of his starting career. If continued the “stats guys” will acknowledge that outliers are normal when the sample size is large enough. That’s how stats work.

            The non-stats guy will not do this. They will say something changed even though nothing changed other than random outcomes regressed to the mean. The non-stats guys will invent reasons why Speight “got better”. They will pretend they knew it all along. They might even go so far as to argue their sensitive emotional reactions helped Speight get better because they demand more and that somehow filters down.

            Not all, but some.

            • GKblue
              Comments: 198
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              GKblue
              Sep 23, 2017 at 6:20 AM

              I agree with your first two para statistically. The third para is a bit snarky and self serving.

              With a large enough sample size it is expected to see some fliers, and for the stats guy to recognize them as that and not much more. However within that greater sample size it is also possible to see trends if they occur and then the stats guy has to look for assignable causes, eh?

              That is what you have done by scrutinizing the OL. That is what others with experience have done when seeing intangibles you don’t see or recognize.

              For me the OL does make Speight’s job tougher on occasion. The expected effect of youth and timing with the receivers does as well. But unknown lingering effects of his injury, his regression to poor footwork and mechanics he owns. He is playing hurried sometimes when he doesn’t have to and he owns that as well.

              Any reasonable fan isn’t going to expect perfection from him. He is what he is, not all bad, and likely not a historically great QB either. Just cut out the unforced errors and manage what you can Wilton.

              • Comments: 678
                Joined: 1/19/2016
                je93
                Sep 23, 2017 at 11:33 AM

                Very well said

                “Any reasonable fan isn’t going to expect perfection from him. He is what he is, not all bad, and likely not a historically great QB either. Just cut out the unforced errors and manage what you can Wilton”

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