MLive: Updated odds have Michigan a national title contender

MLive: Updated odds have Michigan a national title contender


July 15, 2017

I guess I must be a total Debbie Downer, because I don’t see Michigan as a title contender (LINK).

Hit the jump for some beautiful ladies and a Kate Upton gif.

16 comments

  1. Comments: 635
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    WindyCityBlue
    Jul 16, 2017 at 9:43 AM

    Well, I suppose..in the same way that Wheatley is a “contender” for the Mackey Award and Cole for the Outland Trophy. And of course, these are betting lines, which may not be perfectly connected to the reality on the field.

  2. mos12
    Comments: 22
    Joined: 8/15/2016
    mos12
    Jul 16, 2017 at 10:45 AM

    I feel like it all comes down to David Long and Laverty Hill. If they can perform close to their potential, we have a shot for the playoffs. Start by beating Florida and get young guys some experience and who knows where we are by the end of the season. I think that having a significantly different offensive scheme gets us past Florida. Beyond that? Fingers crossed!

    • Comments: 3180
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Jul 16, 2017 at 1:17 PM

      The florida game is almost irrelevant to our national title chances. Winning the big 10 is very likely to be the thing that gets us in or out.

    • Comments: 2083
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jul 16, 2017 at 1:45 PM

      Maybe I’m wrong, but I would bet a small amount of money that either Hill or Long is a backup this year. Whether it’s Washington, St-Juste, Watson, etc., I think one of those presumed top two guys is going to falter.

      • Comments: 635
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        WindyCityBlue
        Jul 16, 2017 at 2:16 PM

        And whoever we have penciled in as the presumed starters at this point, it’s likely, things being what they are, that at least one or two will be unavailable by the time the season starts, or soon after, for reasons of injury, academics, discipline, or other. There are very few positions for us where that isn’t going to be a significant blow, but you have to evaluate our chances for success with that eventuality considered. It just happens, every year, to almost everybody.

        • Comments: 3180
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Jul 16, 2017 at 2:27 PM

          This is a valuable point.

          My only quibble is that there are some positions where losing a presumed starter might not be that much of a blow. WR, FB, TE maybe RB too if I’m wrong about how good Evans is. I think a lot of our fans think QB is on the list too.

          In most years I think the list would be longer but we lost so much on defense in the offseason that proven depth is non-existent. Last year’s defense could afford to lose a DL, LB, or DB and be fine. Unfortunately we lost 2 DBs by the end of the season (Peppers and Clark) and both were NFL draft picks. The year before it was the DL that got slammed. It’s very uncommon for any college team to handle the unusually high attrition to a single position. When it happens (e.g., Cardale Jones) it’s a true testament to depth, talent, and development.

      • Comments: 3180
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 16, 2017 at 2:16 PM

        I would agree with this. Hill and Long seem like the favorites but their positions are very tenuous. Both of them working out is the best case scenario but that’s optimistic.

      • Comments: 3180
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 16, 2017 at 2:19 PM

        This is why I think Washington, Watson, Thomas and St. Juste are all pretty important players. Maybe no single one of them is that important or hard to replace but if any one of them pops it can be a season-changing thing.

  3. Comments: 3180
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Jul 16, 2017 at 1:16 PM

    They have a pretty manageable schedule that comes down to the performance in 4 coin toss games. The toughest one of those is at home and anyway, they probably only need to win 3 of the 4 to get to the big ten title game. They could even get there if they won the right 2.

    If they play up to expectations (winning at least 2 of the 4), Michigan should only needs a couple breaks to get to the playoff. If you’re in the playoff you have a shot of winning it.

    I don’t think Michigan is a top 10 team this year, but the inherent randomness of college football and the schedule they have is enough to make them a legit contender.

    The OL and DB questions are legitimate issues. If Speight plays as well as I think he can it could be more than enough to offset them.

    • Comments: 635
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      WindyCityBlue
      Jul 16, 2017 at 2:10 PM

      Well, if they beat OSU and Penn State, they’d be a very good bet to get to the Big Ten title game, even if they lose to Wisconsin and Florida. The Florida game won’t bear on the Big Ten, but may be the tipping point for making the playoff. If we lose to Florida, going 10-1 the rest of the way may not be good enough.

      But let’s face it…even going 10-2 is tough. We’ve had a lot of teams with more proven talent and experience going into a season that haven’t done that well, and that haven’t been able to avoid losing a game they shouldn’t have somewhere along the way. And going 11-1 is really tough, especially when you’re inexperienced overall, weak on the Oline and have a QB with a not-too-high ceiling.

      • GKblue
        Comments: 174
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        GKblue
        Jul 16, 2017 at 2:35 PM

        “But let’s face it…even going 10-2 is tough. We’ve had a lot of teams with more proven talent and experience going into a season that haven’t done that well”

        Exactly, WCB. If we hit 10-2 especially with wins over MSU and Ohio State I am really happy with this young team.

        • Comments: 3180
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Jul 16, 2017 at 2:46 PM

          I think things have gotten so bad against OSU that almost any reasonable scenario is good if it includes a win over them. Even 8-4 might be OK if it includes that upset.

          It’s easier to imagine a successful season that includes a loss to OSU but part of that is because we have come to expect it. That’s just the reality of where OSU has ascended to under Meyer as much as it is about Michigan.

          I still dream of a season where Michigan beats OSU once in the big house and then again in the playoff.

      • Comments: 3180
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 16, 2017 at 2:42 PM

        Yeah – there are scenarios where the Florida game functions as a tie-breaker. The most likely one is something like OSU’s win over Oklahoma helping them backdoor into the playoff last year. But that also required a whole lot of help from other teams and Florida being a really good team. It isn’t particularly likely to be repeated.

        If they lose to Florida the goals of the season are still well in play. It barely has an effect on their title hopes, outside of fringe scenarios like that described above.

        Florida is most definitely the least important of the 4 swing games. Michigan could go 10-2 and still make the playoff (if one of the losses is to Florida).

        10-2 would be a successful season, IMO. 9-3 depends on the circumstances.

        As far as the national title goes – everyone is a longshot, even OSU and Alabama.

        • Comments: 635
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          WindyCityBlue
          Jul 16, 2017 at 5:25 PM

          It will be tough to make the playoff at 10-2, even if one of the losses is to Florida. If the other loss is to Penn State, they would have to lose at least two other conference games and we’d have to win all the rest for us to even make the title game. No way do we make the playoff at 10-2 if we don’t even win our own division. A later loss to Wisconsin would probably knock us too far down in the polls to recover, and a loss to a worse team somewhere along the way would drop us even further.

          • Comments: 3180
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jul 16, 2017 at 6:22 PM

            There are actually many alternatives where 10-2 gets you into the big ten title game. Overall record only matter if 3 teams are tied with 1 conference loss.

            Presuming those 3 teams are PSU, OSU, and UM…

            In your scenario where PSU beats Michigan (and UM beats OSU), all it would take beyond PSU losing @OSU (as expected) is one loss between @Iowa, @Northwestern, @MSU and Nebraska. Michigan would win the tie-breakers if this happened and It is better than 50/50 that PSU takes a loss in one of those 4 games. Per S&P projections, they have only a 41% chance of being 4-0 through that set of games.

            In the scenario that OSU beats UM (and UM beats PSU) the odds are longer, because OSU is a stronger team with fewer challenges. OSU does have to play @Nebraska and @Iowa but that’s really it outside the head-to-heads with PSU and OSU.

            The order of importance for Michigan is 1) OSU 2) PSU 3)Wisc. Florida is way way back. MSU and Indiana are probably more important to getting to the playoff. Though I could see national perception and recruiting impact arguments that say the Florida game is more important.

            • Comments: 635
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              WindyCityBlue
              Jul 17, 2017 at 6:42 AM

              Sure, we could definitely get into the BT championship at 10-2, if one of the losses is Florida, and one of the wins is OSU. But then the question is, even if we win, does a 2 loss BT champ make the playoff? Possible, but by no means certain (just ask Penn State), and probably depending on some things outside of our control.

              On the other hand, a 1 loss Big Ten champ will be in the playoff without a doubt, and regardless of what anyone else does.

You must belogged in to post a comment.