Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan has struggled to run the ball the past three weeks. After topping 4.0 yards/carry for five straight weeks, the Wolverines have averaged 1.9, 3.7, and 3.6 yards/carry in the past three; that last number came against Rutgers, who didn’t sack quarterback Jake Rudock even once. De’Veon Smith leads the team with 524 yards and 5 touchdowns, and he made it through last week’s game without appearing to re-injure his ankle. He’s the bruiser and needs all the leg drive he can get. Meanwhile, Drake Johnson is the speedster and is averaging 4.9 yards/carry. Ty Isaac is back on the depth chart after two weeks of banishment for an undisclosed reason. Michigan is #66 in rushing yardage (172 yards/game) and #72 in rushing average (4.27 yards/carry). Indiana is #78 in rushing defense (174 yards/game) and #92 in rushing average against (4.73 yards against/carry). Indiana’s leading tackler is linebacker Marcus Oliver with 79. Next on the list is fellow linebacker T.J. Simmons, but the next three are defensive backs: strong safety Chase Dutra, free safety Jonathan Crawford, and cornerback Rashard Fant. Outside linebacker Zach Shaw, defensive end Nick Mangieri, and defensive tackle Darius Lathan share the team lead with 8 tackles for loss each. Indiana runs a 3-4 defense that can function a bit like a 4-3 with Shaw at the end position. Indiana manned up to hold Michigan State to 3.23 yards/carry, and the Wolverines aren’t any better at running the ball than the Spartans. Michigan will probably need to throw the ball to free up the running game.
Advantage: Indiana
Hit the jump for the rest of the game preview.
Pass Offense vs. Indiana Pass Defense
Michigan is #92 in passing (201 yards/game) and #72 in passer rating. Rudock went through some early-season struggles, but he has 3 touchdowns and 1 interception over the past four weeks while completing 60% of his passes or more. He’s coming off of a week where he averaged 13.5 yards/attempt against Rutgers. Amara Darboh leads the team in receiving with 37 catches for 458 yards and 3 touchdowns, but tight end Jake Butt is catching up with 31 catches for 418 yards and 1 score. Michigan is tied for #32 in sacks allowed, giving up just 13 this year, including zero last week. Indiana is #127 in passing yards allowed (330 yards/game), which is just one spot away from the bottom (an honor held by 0-9 Kansas). They are #104 in passer rating against them, allowing 22 touchdowns and making just 6 interceptions. Free safety Crawford leads the team with 2 interceptions, which both came against Western Kentucky. In fact, only 2 of the Hoosiers’ interceptions have come against Power Five teams. Fant has picked up where Tim Bennett left off. Bennett made 32 pass breakups in his final three seasons at Indiana, but he only had 1 interception; Fant, a redshirt sophomore who stands 5’10”, 177 lbs., has 18 pass breakups and 0 picks in his two seasons. Along the front, Mangieri leads the team in sacks with 7, on a unit which is tied for 47th with 21 total takedowns. Indiana is very young in the secondary with two redshirt sophomores and two true freshmen. This is an area where Michigan should be able to gain an advantage, especially if Rudock’s recent solid play is an indication of permanent improvement.
Advantage: Michigan
Rush Defense vs. Indiana Rush Offense
Michigan is still #3 in rushing yardage (80 yards allowed/game) and yards allowed/carry (2.6), although they have taken a step backward in recent weeks. Rutgers sprung some big plays, and Robert Martin averaged 8.1 yards/carry. That issue may be exacerbated by the presumed loss of nose tackle Ryan Glasgow, who has been in a sling this week after injuring his shoulder against the Scarlet Knights. Assuming he’s unavailable – and remember that his likely top backup, Bryan Mone, is out for the year with a broken leg – the guy who should see starter’s snaps is Maurice Hurst, Jr. (19 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks). Hurst has been disruptive in his own right, but he’s not as stout against the run as Glasgow. Outside of Hurst, Michigan might have to turn to little-used Brady Pallante or defensive end Willie Henry at the nose. Michigan’s leading tacklers are Desmond Morgan (57) and Joe Bolden (56). Indiana is #48 in rushing (186 yards/game) and #69 in rushing average (4.3 yards/carry), but their starting tailback is as good as anyone Michigan has faced this year. Jordan Howard is 6’1″, 230 lbs. and averages 6.1 yards/carry. He’s not a speedster, but he’s tough to bring down and has some good acceleration. After missing a couple games midyear with his own ankle injury, he has averaged 7.1 and 7.9 yards/carry the past two weeks against Michigan State and Iowa, respectively. Backup Devine Redding is decently quick, but he doesn’t break a lot of tackles and averages just 3.5 yards/carry. Indiana’s offensive line – coached by former Michigan OL coach Greg Frey – averages 307 lbs. across the board, which is a bigger group than he had at Michigan (side note: I think Rich Rodriguez trimmed too much weight off the OL when he was in Ann Arbor). They are solid up front, and right guard Dan Feeney is the best of the bunch. Michigan is going to have a tough time corralling Howard, although they should be able to keep Redding and QB Nate Sudfeld in check. Despite the differential in rankings, this is probably closer than it seems at first glance.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Defense vs. Indiana Pass Offense
The Wolverines are #3 in pass defense (159 yards allowed/game) and #1 in passer rating against them. They are tied for giving up the fewest passing touchdowns in the country: Michigan and Northwestern have given up just 4 each. Michigan’s pass defense starts with potential All-American cornerback Jourdan Lewis, who set a school record last week for passes defended in a season (19). He has 2 picks (one returned for a touchdown) and typically follows the other team’s best receiver. Slot corner Jabrill Peppers has broken up 7 passes, and safety Dymonte Thomas has sneaked up to break up 5 passes. Up front, Henry leads the team with 6 sacks, and Chris Wormley came out of hibernation to grab 2 against Rutgers (he now has 4 on the year). Even though Glasgow is out, he was often replaced by Hurst on passing downs, anyway. Michigan likes to blitz, but Indiana and quarterback Sudfeld like to get the ball out quickly, so it might serve the Wolverines well to sit back in coverage a little more. Indiana is #31 in passing offense (275 yards/game) and #49 in passer rating. Sudfeld is basically a statue of a quarterback at 6’6″, 240 lbs. He completes passes at a 60.1% clip for 8.5 yards/attempt, and he has 15 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. His top target is Ricky Jones (41 catches, 708 yards, 5 TDs) while Simmie Cobbs, Jr. (36 catches, 552 yards, 3 TDs) isn’t far behind. Tiny slot guy Mitchell Paige (5’7″, 176 lbs.) averages 12.6 yards/catch, and tight end Michael Cooper (6’5″, 260 lbs.) averages 17.2 yards/catch. Indiana can throw the ball around, but I think the matchups in the passing game set up pretty well for Michigan: Lewis on Jones, Clark/Stribling on Cobbs, Peppers on Paige, etc. Sudfeld might be looking at a day like he had against Ohio State and Iowa, where he completed less than 48% of his passes with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.
Advantage: Michigan
Roster Notes
- Indiana players recruited Michigan: OT Tim Gardner, DT Darius Lathan
- Player from the state of Michigan: LB Kenny Arnold (Orchard Lake St. Mary’s)
- Offensive line coach/co-offensive coordinator Greg Frey coached offensive line at Michigan from 2008-2010
Last Time They Played . . .
- Michigan had the advantage of playing against backup QB Zander Diamont (5/8, 24 yards; 7 carries, 49 yards)
- Standout running back Tevin Coleman was held to 4 yards/carry (27 carries, 108 yards)
- Devin Gardner was 22/29 for 220 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception
- Drake Johnson ran 16 times for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Amara Darboh caught 9 passes for 107 yards and 1 touchdown
- Michigan 34, Indiana 7
Predictions
- Rudock finally hits speedy WR Jehu Chesson for a big play over the top
- Nate Sudfeld completes 50% of his passes
- Jordan Howard scores 2 rushing touchdowns
- Jabrill Peppers records his first career interception
- Michigan 34, Indiana 20
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You forgot to change the title to Indiana.
This is the game that worries me. While I can’t see a Harbaugh team looking past anyone, particularly in his first year, kid’s will be kids.
I worry about stopping their running game, particularly with Glasgow sitting. I think we have to move Henry inside in order to counter Jason Howard and an offensive line that’s better than anyone around here thinks a Greg Frey line is going to be. I watched them pound Sparty more than I expected was possible, and then turn some corners. It might have gone in the opposite order as I think about it.
I’m also not convinced that Ruddock can play as stout as he did against Rutgers, two weeks in a row, despite another anemic pass defense.
Anyway, I think this one is won by special teams where we maintain a field position advantage for much of the game, and maybe get some points. But I’ll be honest here, I’m lacking my typical confidence against Indiana.
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I agree with you that this game will be tough to win, I think that Rudock and the offense will play fairly well, but Indiana’s tempo will wear Michigan out and they will hit some big plays while establishing a consistent running game. This is a 50/50 game in my opinion where Harbaugh will have to get creative with Peppers.
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Last year I viewed all away games as losses, with homes games being a 50/50 proposition.
This year I have a bit more confidence in the team’s away capabilities. Still, this one makes me nervous. As you point out, this one is closer than the rankings indicate. I think this goes into the 4th before Michigan asserts and puts this away.
Whatever you do, Michigan … do not fall behind by 2 or more scores. I’m not convinced this team yet has what it takes to be a come-from-behind winner.
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With all due respect, two weeks ago I told you we couldn’t run against IU! So, what’s our plan for PSU, let alone Ohio St. ?
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Ummm…okay? This seems like an odd place to say “I told you so” or toot your own horn, since in the very first section of this post, I gave the advantage to Indiana when it came to our rush offense.
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Sorry! My intention was not in any way to gloat, sincerely! I always read this blog as in my opinion, it is solid!
Sorry! Sometimes an email ir text is taken out of context! Sorry!
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Not a problem. We’re on the same page about Michigan’s running game, it seems.
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D-Line took another hit with injury. We now lost 3 of our best guys on the D-line. I am happy with the win, and Indiana really does have a decent offense, but I am really afraid our defense might not be able to hold out against Penn State and of course Ohio State. Our defense coaches got to pull something out of their asses to cover this. They got to show why they are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to do their jobs.
First thing’s first, of course. I am wondering what Thunder’s predictions will be vs. Penn State. I think it will be a close one.
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