Preview: Michigan at Notre Dame

Preview: Michigan at Notre Dame


August 31, 2018

RUSHING OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME RUSHING DEFENSE

Michigan’s offensive line and running back situation will remain largely the same from last season. The biggest changes will come at left tackle, where Jon Runyan, Jr. has taken charge, and center, where Cesar Ruiz will be a “new” starter after starting six games at right guard in 2017. The offensive line was #20 in Adjusted Line Yards and #7 in Power Success Rate. The top two running backs also return: Karan Higdon and Chris Evans averaged 6.1 and 5.1 yards/carry last year, and Higdon was six yards shy of hitting 1,000 yards for the season. Michigan does lose two experienced fullbacks, so the usage of sophomore Ben Mason, fifth year senior Jared Wangler, and/or freshman Ben Van Sumeren could be interesting to watch. Michigan will also have a mobile quarterback in Shea Patterson, who had 136 yards rushing and 1 touchdown (but lost 152 yards in sacks). Notre Dame inside linebacker Te’von Coney (6’1″, 240 lbs.) led the team last year in tackles (116), and weakside linebacker Drue Tranquill (6’2″, 231) was third with 85. Those are the top two returning tacklers, and they also led the team with 12.5 and 10.5 tackles for loss, respectively. Defensive tackle Jerry Tillery (6’7″, 305) is the most dangerous defensive lineman and had 56 tackles with 9 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in 2017. The team was 51st in rushing defense (154 yards allowed/game), but they were tied with Alabama for #7 in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed (9).
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.

PASSING OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME PASSING DEFENSE

We don’t know what we’ll get from Michigan’s passing offense, because not much has been made publicly available after the spring game was canceled. Shea Patterson is the new QB, and he completed 63.8% of his passes last year for 2,259 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions at Ole Miss. To further complicate the forecast, Michigan lost four receivers to transfers (Drake Harris, Kekoa Crawford, Maurice Ways, and Eddie McDoom) and one to injury (Tarik Black). On the plus side, former 5-star Donovan Peoples-Jones has a year under his belt, and Michigan has a talented crew of tight ends with Sean McKeon (a team-leading 31 receptions), Zach Gentry (17.8 yards/catch), and Nick Eubanks (30.5 yards/catch on 2 receptions). Michigan was #117 in Adjusted Sack Rate last year, though, and most of that line returns. There is a new offensive line coach who has supposedly simplified things, and Patterson should escape more sacks than Wilton Speight/Brandon Peters/John O’Korn, but Michigan fans should be in wait-and-see mode when it comes to pass protection. Notre Dame was #53 in passing defense (214 yards allowed/game) in 2017 and #46 in passer efficiency rating defense. They just lost former Michigan commit Shaun Crawford for the year with a third ACL injury, though Crawford was expected to be their third corner. They were tied for #67 in interceptions (10), led by Julian Love (5’11”, 193), a sophomore who returned 2 of his 3 interceptions for touchdowns last season. The Fighting Irish have questions at safety, where junior Alohi Gilman (5’11”, 202) and senior Nick Coleman (6’0″, 194) would be first-year starters. They bring back their top seven sack artists from last year (and #8 was the injured Crawford), led by Tillery with 4.5, but the team was tied for #70 nationally in sacks for the year.
Advantage: Michigan

RUSHING DEFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME RUSHING OFFENSE

Michigan was #18 in rushing defense last season (121 yards allowed/game), which is a good number but doesn’t quite make clear that the defense can be stifling at times. Florida had 11 yards on 27 carries in the season opener, and only four teams averaged over 4.0 yards/carry (Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State, Maryland). The 3.49 yards/carry against them was #22 in the country after it seemed like the defense wore down late in the season. Michigan returns nine starters on defense, but one of those departures was star defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr., so that spot could be a question mark. New WILL linebacker Devin Gil may also be in the crosshairs of opposing teams. Otherwise, Michigan was tied for #1 overall with 114 tackles for loss, led by Chase Winovich (18.5) and Khaleke Hudson (18). Meanwhile, Notre Dame was #7 in rushing last year (269 yards/game) and #3 in rushing average (6.3 yards/carry). They lost leading rusher Josh Adams (1,430 yards on 6.9 yards/carry) to the NFL, but quarterback Brandon Wimbush (6’1″, 228) had 14 touchdowns on 5.7 yards/carry and totaled 803 yards on the ground. Running back Dexter Williams averaged over 9 yards/carry last year, but he’s supposed to suspended to begin the year. It looks like junior Tony Jones, Jr. (5’11”, 225) will start, and he was Notre Dame’s least effective runner last year. Notre Dame has a formidably talented offensive line, especially on the interior, but junior Liam Eichenberg will be starting for the first time at left tackle. Notre Dame’s offensive line was #5 in Adjusted Line Yards and excellent at everything except Power Success Rate (#38 overall) in the run game.
Advantage: Notre Dame

PASSING DEFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME PASSING OFFENSE

Michigan was #1 in pass defense in 2017 (150 yards allowed/game) and allowed just 48.8% completions to opposing quarterbacks. They allowed 11 touchdowns and made 10 interceptions, which put them at #4 in passer rating defense. Michigan returns everyone who is mostly relevant to opposing teams’ passing games except Hurst. The two cornerbacks, David Long and Lavert Hill, are two of the best in the country. The defensive end duo of Chase Winovich and Rashan Gary is perhaps the best combo in the country. The safeties are a question mark, but the entire starting secondary returns. Notre Dame was #103 in passing offense (179 yards/game) and #102 in passer rating. Wimbush is the guy at QB, but he completed less than 50% of his passes for 16 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 6.8 yards/attempt last year, which wasn’t great. He’s a guy who makes things happen with his legs. Junior receiver Chase Claypool (6’4″, 228) led the returning group with 29 catches for 402 yards. Senior Miles Boykin (6’4″, 225) averaged over 21 yards/catch and slot receiver Chris Finke (5’9″, 181) averaged 17. Senior tight end Alize Mack (6’4″, 251) averaged 8.7 yards/catch and had 1 TD. It’s a big pair of receivers on the outside matched up against average-sized corners in Long and Hill, but they have not generally struggled with big receivers, so this should be a positive overall matchup for Michigan.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

  • Notre Dame players from the state of Michigan include: DE Daelin Hayes, DE Khalid Kareem, LB Ovie Oghoufo
  • Notre Dame players recruited by Michigan include: DT Jayson Ademilola, DE Justin Ademilola, S Derrik Allen, WR Kevin Austin, OL Aaron Banks, OL Alex Bars, LB Asmar Bilal, CB Noah Boykin, WR Chase Claypool, CB Shaun Crawford, OL Liam Eichenberg, DT Darnell Ewell, CB Houston Griffith, OL Robert Hainsey, DE Daelin Hayes, LB Jonathan Jones, DE Khalid Kareem, WR Lawrence Keys III, TE Cole Kmet, OL Sam Mustipher, LB Ovie Oghoufo, OL Jarrett Patterson, LB Shayne Simon, TE Tommy Tremble, TE Nic Weishar, LB Drew White, RB Dexter Williams, TE Brock Wright
  • CB Shaun Crawford was committed to Michigan during the recruiting process
  • Notre Dame’s football staff is full of memorable former Fighting Irish players, including: RB Autry Denson (running backs), CB Todd Lyght (defensive backs), QB Ron Powlus (associate athletic director), QB Tommy Reese (quarterbacks)

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…

  • On September 6, 2014, the final score was Notre Dame 31, Michigan 0
  • QB Devin Gardner was 19/32 for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions
  • RB Derrick Green led the team in carries with 13 for 25 yards (1.9 YPC)
  • Michigan had more yards on offense (289) than Notre Dame (280) but still got skunked by 31 points

PREDICTIONS

  • Shea Patterson throws for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • Brandon Wimbush runs for 80 yards and 1 touchdown
  • Michigan misses a field goal
  • Michigan 21, Notre Dame 17

One comment

  1. Comments: 1863
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Sep 01, 2018 at 3:26 AM

    I’d switch our RunD over their RunO; they shouldn’t get credit for last year’s guys who are no longer around

    I’d also give their PassD over our PassO, until we actually prove we have something (hopefully soon!)

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