Preview: Michigan at Penn State

Preview: Michigan at Penn State


November 20, 2015

Rush Offense vs. Penn State Rush Defense
Michigan is #67 in rushing yards/game with 169, and they are tied for #69 in the country – with Utah! – at 4.33 yards/carry. The Wolverines mix and match in the backfield, but the guys seeing the most crunch-time carries are De’Veon Smith (582 yards, 4.4 yards/carry, 5 TDs) and Drake Johnson (212 yards, 4.5 yards/carry, 3 TDs). Michigan also makes heavy use of the fullback, even using 243 lb. Sione Houma as a short-yardage back (131 yards, 4.9 yards/carry, 3 TDs). Michigan has had the same starting lineup on the offensive line all year. That’s neither a good thing or a bad thing – the Wolverines are rated perfectly average at 100.7 in Adjusted Line Yards, which is #73 in the country. The problem with the running game is that none of Michigan’s backs are dangerous unless Smith can break a few tackles. Meanwhile, Penn State is #48 in rushing defense (152 yards/game) and #39 in yards allowed/carry (3.8). Sophomore middle linebacker Jason Cabinda (6’1″, 245 lbs.) leads the team with 71 tackles, followed by monster defensive tackle Austin Johnson (6’4″, 323 lbs.) with 64 and then sophomore safety Marcus Allen with 57. The Nittany Lions make a ton of plays in the backfield, as four of them have double-digit tackles for loss and they are #2 in tackles for loss with 93. The most effective run game penetrator is Michigan native Anthony Zettel, a 6’4″, 284 lb. tackle. Michigan does not run the ball well, and PSU has given up 220+ yards on the ground in four of their last six games, but it’s going to be tough sledding for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Penn State

Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.

Pass Offense vs. Penn State Pass Defense
Despite two straight excellent passing games, Michigan is still just #66 in passing (225 yards/game), though they are #45 in passer rating. Quarterback Jake Rudock has set personal records for yardage the past two weeks (327 against Rutgers, 440 against Indiana) and set a school record with 6 touchdowns last week against the Hoosiers. He has been trying to get the ball to Jehu Chesson all year, with mixed results; last week it finally happened to the tune of 10 catches, 207 yards, and 4 touchdowns for the speedster. Wideout Amara Darboh (567 yards, 4 TDs) and tight end Jake Butt (500 yards, 2 TDs) lead the team in yardage. The Wolverines are tied at #29 in sacks allowed with just 14, and that’s partly because Rudock gets rid of the ball and can tuck it and run. Penn State leads the nation in sacks with 42, led by 6’6″, 272 lb. Carl Nassib, the national leader with 15.5 (he had exactly 1.0 sack in 2014). They give up the second-fewest passing yards (159 yards/game) and are #11 in passer rating against them. Five-foot-nine sophomore cornerback Grant Haley and freshman backup John Reid lead the team in interceptions with 2 each, while Cabinda (5), Zettel (4), and Haley (4) lead in pass breakups. On a side note, the Nittany Lions have forced 17 fumbles (tied for #1 nationally) and are #9 in fumbles recovered with 10. The defensive backfield isn’t anything special, but my guess is that Rudock will be dealing with big guys in his face all afternoon. Michigan will need to get rid of the ball quickly and roll Rudock away from pressure.
Advantage: Penn State

Rush Defense vs. Penn State Rush Offense
Michigan got gashed over and over last week against Indiana, allowing a season-high 307 yards (the previous high was 144 against Minnesota) and 5.6 yards/carry. Arguably, the biggest reason was an injury to standout nose tackle Ryan Glasgow, who is gone for the season with a pectoral injury. Michigan got worn out, but that should be mitigated somewhat by Penn State’s pace, which is significantly slower than Indiana’s. Michigan was the top run defense in the country at one point, but they are #8 in yardage (103 yards allowed/game) and #9 in yards per carry allowed (3.09). Michigan’s linebackers had a hard time getting off blocks last week, but Joe Bolden (64) and Desmond Morgan (62) lead the team in tackles, while defensive tackle Chris Wormley (10.0) and defensive end Willie Henry (9.5) lead the squad in tackles for loss. Penn State is #99 in rushing offense (143 yards/game), but they are #105 in attempts since they like to pass the ball. They are #84 in yards/carry at 4.14. The breakout star of the Nittany Lions’ offense is freshman running back Saquon Barkley (5’11”, 215 lbs.), who has 836 yards, averages 6.3 yards/carry, and has 7 touchdowns. Junior Akeel Lynch (5.2 yards/carry, 2 TDs) is the backup. Penn State’s offensive line is #42 in adjusted line yards, despite lacking any established stars. They are not very big up front, with only left guard Angelo Mangiro and right tackle Brendan Mahon weighing in over 300 lbs. Until Michigan proves they can stop the run without Glasgow, I have to give the edge to the Nittany Lions.
Advantage: Penn State

Pass Defense vs. Penn State Pass Offense
Michigan is #6 in pass defense (166 yards allowed/game) and #2 in passer rating against them. Unlike Penn State, who does most of its damage with a very good front four, the Wolverines get the job done with solid defensive line play and good-to-great performances from the defensive backs. Website Pro Football Focus suggests that cornerback Jourdan Lewis should be a Heisman candidate; he leads the nation in pass breakups and has 2 interceptions, 1 of which he returned for a touchdown against Northwestern. Meanwhile, slot corner Jabrill Peppers has 7 pass breakups, and cornerback Jeremy Clark leads the team with 3 picks. Michigan is #33 in sacks with 25, led by Henry (6.0) and Wormley (4.0). Penn State is tied for #120 in pass protection after giving up 33 sacks so far, including an abysmal 10 against Temple in the opener. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg has completed more than 53% of his passes just twice this year, against San Diego and Illinois, but he still has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sophomore receiver Chris Godwin (6’2″, 208 lbs.) has broken out this year with 49 catches for 808 yards (16.5 yards/catch) and 3 touchdowns; last year’s main target, DaeSean Hamilton, is second on the team with 31 catches for 426 yards, and he leads the squad with 5 touchdowns. Penn State is #89 in passing yardage (207 yards/game) and #66 in passer rating. This is the one area where I think Michigan has a decided advantage.
Advantage: Michigan

Roster Notes

  • Penn State players recruited by Michigan: S Marcus Allen, OG Ryan Bates, WR Saeed Blacknall, TE Adam Breneman, OT Sterling Jenkins, WR Juwan Johnson, LB Ben Kline, OT Brendan Mahon, CB John Reid, OG Kevin Reihner, CB Garrett Taylor, DT Anthony Zettel
  • Players from the state of Michigan include: TE Charles Idemudia (Gross Pointe North), DT Anthony Zettel (West Branch Ogemaw Heights)
  • Penn State freshman CB Garrett Taylor was a one-time Michigan commit. He is redshirting this season after tearing his ACL in his senior high school year.
  • Penn State DE Carl Nassib is the brother of former Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib, now with the New York Giants
  • Penn State CB John Reid was a high school classmate of Michigan OG Jon Runyan, Jr.

Last Time They Played . . .

  • Devin Gardner was 16/24 for 192 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
  • Devin Funchess turned what looked like a sure INT into a TD
  • Matt Wile was 3/3 on field goals
  • Penn State defensive lineman Anthony Zettel picked off a stupid Gardner pass
  • Michigan 18, Penn State 13

Predictions

  • Jabrill Peppers sees more extended time on offense than in any other game
  • Michigan has its worst rushing outing of the season
  • Jake Rudock gets sacked 3 times
  • Penn State 19, Michigan 17

18 comments

  1. Comments: 117
    Joined: 9/28/2015
    PapaBear
    Nov 20, 2015 at 11:40 AM

    On Offense, I would imagine we see a ton of screens; delayed and jail break? to Peppers and Drake. Hoping for some innovation! I think we can move the ball off tackle some, but to make this happen, I’d like to see some jet sweep, or fake jet to drag an LB or occupy the DE play-side ala Wisconsin last season. Probably not a ton of routes past 0-3 on the tree? Zone read?

    On defense, maybe more cover 1 and zero than cover two for most of the game?
    And please tackle somebody!

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Nov 20, 2015 at 12:36 PM

      I don’t think we’ll see much Cover 2 in this one from Michigan. I think they can handle the receivers 1-on-1, so there’s no need to take away from the run defense by putting a second safety back deep.

      I definitely think we’ll see some deep routes, but it will have to come on play action when Michigan can slow down the pass rush a little bit and get Rudock on the edge.

  2. Comments: 191
    Joined: 8/13/2015
    crazyjoedavola
    Nov 20, 2015 at 12:41 PM

    I agree with your prediction Thunder but I actually think that PSU will win by at least 10. Playing on the road in a hostile environment against a team that will completely shut down the rushing game and put everything on Rudock who will have to deal with one of the best pass rushing teams in the league, looks like a total disaster on paper. Peppers will have to do a lot of damage on offense and special teams to keep us in this one. I am thinking of a score around 25-10 for PSU.

  3. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Nov 20, 2015 at 12:46 PM

    Ranking #73 is “perfectly average” only if your point of reference includes MAC-caliber teams and FCS teams. There are 128 FBS teams and being perfectly average amongst them would be ranking 64th.

    For a Power 5 team that is very bad. To put it in perspective: the ‘perfectly average’ teams that rank overall (by FEI) 70-75 in the country are 70 Connecticut 4-5, 71 Duke 5-4, 72 Kansas State 2-6, 73 Minnesota 4-6, 74 Illinois 4-5, 75 Boston College 1-7. So, if you are good with that overall level of team of play, that’s what the OL is doing right now in the run game.

    Our OL run blocks at the level of a 3 or 4-win team. This is what the numbers are telling you.

    But…by all means, our fanbase should keep hammering our RBs and/or Fred Jackson for our run game.

    @Thunder, sincere praise for incorporating some of the advanced metrics into the analysis here, it’s a great addition.

    But the interpretation here is lacking. Michigan run game production slightly exceed its rush blocking production (at least according to the rankings you provided). That would indicate that our RBs are perfectly average, while our blocking is very bad for a Power 5 team.

    “The problem with the running game is that none of Michigan’s backs are dangerous unless Smith can break a few tackles.” No. Smith can break a few tackles and still isn’t dangerous. Smith HAS to break tackles for the run game to be even adequate. Johnson IS dangerous, but HE has to break tackles to really show that. The problem with the running game is that the run blocking isn’t very good.

    That said, the QB and passing game aren’t helping the cause and might be blamed for stacking the deck against the OL. It’s a team game, and Rudock’s entire first half of the season offered zero downfield passing threat. That means stacked boxes, that means an extra man that the OL, FBs, TEs and, yes, RBs have to account for.

    The hope here is the Rudock rejuvenating against bad defenses will translate to improvement against PSU and OSU, enough to push the second level of those defenses into a more cautious stance and help the OL to open holes for our adequate but unexceptional RB duo.

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Nov 20, 2015 at 1:21 PM

      Well, Lanknows, since you are the self-appointed expert on advanced stats, I thought you might be able to grasp the concept from Football Outsiders:

      “Adjusted Line Yards: One of only two opponent-adjusted numbers on the page, this aligns with the ALY figure FO tracks for the NFL and is presented on a scale in which 100.0 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.”

      http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol

      Since Michigan is at 100.7, I would say that’s defined as “perfectly average.” If you have an issue with it, you should probably go argue with the Football Outsiders people.

      I have other things to say about the running game, but I don’t want to rehash an argument that I grew tired of in the Indiana game recap. Let it suffice to say that I disagree with you.

      • Comments: 6285
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Nov 20, 2015 at 1:55 PM

        OK, I stand corrected. They don’t RANK perfectly average, but their score (which is more meaningful and accurate) is average (well, technically a little above.) I’m not an advanced football stats expert but I know statistics and analyze and interpret numbers for a living.

        The larger point — that this ‘average’ number includes MAC-caliber teams stands true. “Perfectly average” by this definition means being a 3 or 4 win Power 5 team. An FBS average team is a below average power 5 team. How many teams are in the Power 5? About 60? To be average by that measure, they need to be ranked around 30.

        Towit, the only Big Ten teams with worse adj line yards numbers than Michigan are Illinois, MSU, and Northwestern. And MSU has been ravaged by injuries along the OL for half the year.

        Rutgers, Purdue and Maryland are run-blocking better than Michigan. Think about what that means for comparing Michigan rushing production to those teams. Think what that means when you consider Smiths ypc vs those teams’.

        Then dive a little deeper and see that some backs are getting much better blocking within the UM system. Look at opportunity rates and you see that the OL blocks well on about 1/3 of smith carries, 1/3 of green’s. Meanwhile, over half of Isaac’s were well blocked. Competition level? It matters. Houma and Johsnon are getting 37 and 38% blocking.

        Michigan’s OL overall, is successfully blocking only 36% of its run plays. It should be around 40% to be FBS average and closer to 45% to be an average power 5 team%. An elite run blocking team is up around 50%.

        Michigan ranks 104th in the country by this metric. They are one of the worst by this measure and far below average (for a power 5 team) in the other. The run blocking is horrible.

        You don’t have to agree with the conclusion but that’s what the numbers say.

        That is very far from “perfectly average”. The numbers indicate our RBs are saving the asses of a bad run-blocking OL. The run game is getting below average production despite very bad (for a power 5 team) run blocking.

        That’s what the numbers tell you. That’s also what kind of makes sense if you are paying attention to the last 5 years of Michigan football. Since Frey/Rodriguez left the run blocking and OL in general has been an absolute disaster due in part to having 3 different offensive coordinators. You can’t turn that around overnight. Pass blocking has directly correlated with experience along the OL – but run blocking is more scheme-dependant so the transition has been harder.

        • Comments: 3844
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Nov 20, 2015 at 2:15 PM

          I’m glad you brought that up. Interestingly, despite having worse offensive lines (according to FO), Illinois, Michigan State, and Northwestern all have running backs who are outperforming Michigan’s. You know, just in case you were wondering why I said that De’Veon Smith is possibly the worst starting RB in the conference…

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Nov 20, 2015 at 2:53 PM

            Like Justin Jackson? A guy who has fumbled 4 times and scored 2 TDs all year. His YPC advantage over Smith is all of 0.2 ypc.

            I’ll take Smith.

            Like State’s leading ball-carrier Madre London? He’s got 4.1 ypc. No surprise since his opportunity rate is below 30%. But at least he hasn’t fumbled this year.

            I’ll take Smith, though honestly I think London is probably right there. He’s nothing amazing but he’s a quality reliable back, like Smith. MSU’s staff has a great eye for RB talent, as you can see with LJ Scott’s obvious talent (still unrefined, which is why he has been behind London despite more impressive ypc.) Holmes is the guy right now and he has 5.0 ypc thanks to a solid 40% opportunity rate. [Notice a trend here – backs with good blocking rates get good ypc numbers and vice versa.] Another great example of the flaws of YPC. MSU staff (who know something about RB safe to say) played London over Holmes and Scott who has a far better YPC.

            Like KeShawn Vaughn?
            Who has all of a 0.2 ypc advantage over Smith but has lost two fumbles on the year.

            Vaughn is definitely more of a big play back, and considering he is just a freshman on a quite bad OL… OK, I ‘ll give you this one. I’d take Vaughn over Smith.

            What about the other 8 teams in the Big Ten? Oh I forgot, we’re not about caring for sample size around here. We can totally draw conclusions based on 3 teams and extend them further…

            Michigan would kill to have RBs like Purdue’s that have lost 4 fumbles this year. And really any of the 3-star backs that Rutgers throws out there are better than Michigan’s collection of 4 and 5 star guys because they each run for 5 ypc proving that all guys Michigan has are busts and all guys Rutgers has are diamonds in the rough. The OLs are immaterial to this conversation lets just look at YPC and draw conclusions.

            [Apologies for descending into sarcasm above but that’s where this has gone to…]

          • Comments: 3844
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Nov 20, 2015 at 3:10 PM

            *sigh* I haven’t ignored the other teams. I’ve talked about them in other places regarding this conversation. Do I need to discuss Ezekiel Elliott and argue that he’s superior to De’Veon Smith?

            FWIW, I was just reading an “insider” article in which a former Harbaugh player/coach also pointed out that Michigan’s biggest downfall is the lack of a dynamic RB.

            BTW, I think it was you who argued against using TDs as a measurement of RB success, since a large part of TDs is running opportunities within the red zone. Naturally, Michigan (42 RZ opportunities) running backs are going to have more opportunities to punch the ball in than Northwestern’s (30 RZ opportunities).

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Nov 20, 2015 at 3:20 PM

            Just because you played the game at a high level doesn’t mean you’re an expert on OL play. It might just mean you are big, fast, or strong. I’m a numbers guy. Announcers and ex-players say a lot of dumb things.

            Yes – TDs are not a meaningful measure of RB performance. But if you’re the lead guy you should probably have more than 2. That’s really low, context or no context.

  4. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Nov 20, 2015 at 1:02 PM

    The thing about putting all the rush defenses woes on Ryan Glasgow being gone last week is that the decline of the defense coincided exactly with when Mario Ojemudia went out.

    Glasgow has a good backup in Hurst, who was playing anyway. Ojemudia’s injury thrust Jenkins-Stone (who has been OK) and Ross (who has not) into the lineup. That’s killing Michigan more than Glasgow did, IMO. We sucked against Indiana but that’s a good OL, a good RB, and a good O in general.

    Godin needs to get healthy – that’ll make all the difference in the world because playing Strobel or Pallante is just not a viable option. If Godin can be effective at DE/DT then that lets Henry slide inside to the nose and he’s a good player, wherever he lines up.

    I expect our DL to win the matchup against PSU’s OL easily. We’ve seen them do well all year, even when Glasgow rotated out (frequently). PSU ain’t Indiana.

    OSU is another story…that matchup might require some game planning to win, but we can worry about that after tomorrow.

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Nov 20, 2015 at 1:30 PM

      Your statement about the Ojemudia injury is inaccurate. He got hurt against Maryland. We allowed 38 yards on 1.52 yards/carry against Northwestern and then 1.76 yards/carry and 58 yards to Michigan State. Then we played Minnesota, Rutgers, and Indiana, all of whom were at 4.0 yards/carry or more and went for 128+ yards.

      • Comments: 6285
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Nov 20, 2015 at 1:58 PM

        Since you like “bottom line stats”.

        Points given up per game with Ojemudia: 7.6

        Points given up per game without Ojemudia: 22.0

        5 games of each

        • Comments: 3844
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Nov 20, 2015 at 2:22 PM

          Uhhh…er…what? Weren’t we talking about the running game? I placed a lot of blame on Glasgow’s absence, and you said that blame was misplaced because it was actually Ojemudia’s absence which caused the dropoff…except the dropoff didn’t occur for a full two games afterward.

          Now you’re talking about PPG allowed, which isn’t about the running game (entirely).

          Ojemudia’s loss is felt more in the passing game. Since you’re a stats guy, you’ll appreciate that Michigan allowed 2 touchdowns and made 6 interceptions in the first five games (when Ojemudia was around), but they have since allowed 3 passing touchdowns and made just 2 interceptions after his injury.

          Toss in the fact that Michigan allowed 2 special teams touchdowns since Ojemudia’s injury, while in the first five games, Michigan only allowed one non-offensive TD (the pick-six to Utah), and that messes with your numbers some.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Nov 20, 2015 at 3:03 PM

            This is pretty funny.

            Yep, I’m crudely applying a simplistic statistic to support an opinion I have about a player even though that statistic is really dependent on a whole bunch of other factors, multiple position groups, opponent and context, and team ability in both the run and pass game. You disapprove?

          • Comments: 3844
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Nov 20, 2015 at 3:20 PM

            I honestly don’t even know what your point is anymore. I guess you were being sarcastic about Ojemudia’s absence hurting the run game? You talk in circles so much, man. I’m done.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Nov 20, 2015 at 3:30 PM

            I made my comment about Ojemudia. That was pretty clear. I didn’t use stats to back it up, it was just my observation.

            You called it inaccurate, citing YPC stats (which are crude and simplistic and ignore context.)

            So, in response, I applied an even MORE crude and simplistic statistic that ignores context.

            You then said it was crude and simplistic to do so and brought up a bunch of context that should be considered.

            Shoe on the other foot.

            So, to be clear:

            I don’t have any meaningful data to backup my point about Ojemudia. It’s a team game so it gets hard to do. But I can apply crude statistics to support my argument as long as I’m willing to ignore context.

          • Comments: 183
            Joined: 9/3/2015
            suduri xusai
            Nov 20, 2015 at 3:58 PM

            Yeah. Save the sarcasm please. Not very productive.

You must belogged in to post a comment.