RUSH OFFENSE vs. MICHIGAN STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #11 in rushing (257 yards/game) and #18 in yards per carry (5.47). Leading rusher Chris Evans is questionable this week after suffering a concussion last Saturday. so things are very likely to be left to starter De’Veon Smith (412 yards), Ty Isaac (332), and breakout running back Karan Higdon (359). Up front, Michigan rolled with (from left to right) Ben Braden, Ben Bredeson, Mason Cole, Kyle Kalis, and Erik Magnuson last week. The Wolverines have suffered injuries on the left side and it’s been a bit of a revolving door between three players (Braden, Bredeson, and Juwann Bushell-Beatty), so watching those players matched up against Michigan State’s Malik McDowell will be one concern for Michigan fans. McDowell leads the squad with 5 tackles for loss and stands sixth on the team with 32 tackles. The leading tacklers are safety Montae Nicholson (6’2″, 219 lbs.) and linebacker Chris Frey (6’2″, 227), each with 57. The Spartans will run mostly a 4-3 Over front. Outside of McDowell, nobody in the front seven should be particularly intimidating, but Nicholson is really good at supporting the run and hits like a linebacker. The Spartans are #66 in rush defense and #57 in yards allowed per rush.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. MICHIGAN STATE PASS DEFENSE
The Wolverines are #76 in pass offense (226 yards/game) and #19 in passer rating. Wilton Speight played perhaps his best career game against a decent Illinois defense last week, and he’s now completing 62.6% of his passes for 13 touchdowns and 2 picks. Michigan’s receivers haven’t lit the world on fire this year, but Amara Darboh is within striking distance of a 1,000 yard season (499 yards through 7 games) and appears to be Speight’s go-to guy. Tight end Jake Butt hasn’t made a lot of big plays because teams are concentrating on taking him away, but he has 26 catches, 310 yards, and 4 touchdowns. The Wolverines are tied for #27 in sacks allowed with 11 so far. The Spartans are tied for #119 in sacks with just 7 through seven games, and McDowell – though talented – is the leading sack artist with 2. The top corner is Darian Hicks (5’11”, 184 lbs.), who has 6 pass breakups and 1 interception. Nobody in the secondary really stands out like in past years. The Spartans are #64 in pass yards allowed per game (225.4) and #90 in passer rating defense. McDowell is the most dangerous guy and gets off the ball well. If Michigan doesn’t switch up the snap count – an issue they had against Wisconsin – then giving him a split-second head start could be detrimental to Michigan’s pass protection. Otherwise, Michigan State is well coached and probably won’t give up a lot of big plays, but the Wolverines should be able to drive the ball.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. MICHIGAN STATE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #4 in rush defense (96 yards allowed/game) and #3 in yards per carry (2.91). Middle linebacker Ben Gedeon leads the unit with 52 tackles, and Jabrill Peppers is second with 41. The latter’s production has dropped off a little bit in recent weeks while playing better offenses and tight ends. He’s not quite as effective when taking on tight ends and inside runs, but he can chase down plays from the backside and erase some other players’ mistakes. Gedeon has made 8.5 tackles for loss, second only to Peppers’s 10. The linebackers can play pretty freely because the defensive line is stacked with NFL-bound talent, much like MSU’s defenses of recent vintage. Michigan State is #86 in rushing offense (155.3 yards/game) and #79 in yards per carry (4.2). L.J. Scott (4.99 yards/carry) and Gerald Holmes (4.86 yards/carry) are both solid backs, but the offensive line has been bad this season. They’re #88 in Adjusted Line Yards, and both poor play and injuries have caused them trouble this season. That’s not a good recipe for success against Michigan’s defensive line. Scott and Holmes both have decent speed and power if they get a clean hole, and a couple of MSU’s three quarterbacks can run. Michigan hasn’t had much trouble slowing down running backs this season, but QB scrambles were an issue earlier in the year. I expect this game to be similar to Illinois last week – MSU’s running game probably won’t get entirely shut down, but they won’t take over the game, either.
PASS DEFENSE vs. MICHIGAN STATE PASS DEFENSE
The Wolverines are #1 in pass defense (111 yards allowed/game) and #2 in passer rating defense. A large part of that quality defense is due to the defensive line, where up to nine players are capable of putting pressure on the quarterback. And that doesn’t mention the array of blitzes brought from the linebackers. Michigan is tied at #4 in sacks with 25, but nobody has more than 4. It’s a well balanced pass rush, and virtually anyone is capable of breaking through at any given time. Cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Channing Stribling have allowed 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and Stribling leads the team with 7 pass breakups. Michigan is down a virtual starter at corner (Jeremy Clark) and saw backup safety Tyree Kinnel leave the game last week due to injury, so the depth in the secondary isn’t great. But a healthy secondary means a very tough matchup for the Spartans. Michigan is #61 in passing offense (235 yards/game) and #54 in passer rating. The Spartans didn’t release a depth chart this week, and it’s not clear whether Brian Lewerke, Tyler O’Connor, or Damion Terry will start. O’Connor has the most experience and appears to be the best suited to be a steady hand, but Lewerke is “the future” while also providing some athleticism as a runner/scrambler. I think O’Connor has taken a lot of the blame for a team that’s simply pretty poor overall, but he’s probably their best chance to win right now and end the Spartans’ five-game losing streak. Wide receiver R.J. Shelton (5’11”, 202 lbs.) is deceptively quick, and he leads the team with 35 catches for 541 yards and 4 touchdowns. Elsewhere, freshman Donnie Corley (6’2″, 186) has done well (21 catches, 310 yards, 2 TDs) and tight end Josiah Price (18 catches, 202 yards, 3 TDs) is a very capable receiver. The team has allowed 16 sacks, which is tied for #69 in the country. Shelton can make big plays in the passing game, but the offensive line is mediocre and the quarterbacks are inconsistent.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Michigan State players recruited by Michigan include: WR Cam Chambers, WR Donnie Corley, LB Ed Davis, OT Dennis Finley, LB Shane Jones, DE Joshua King, CB Justin Layne, OT Thiyo Lukusa, WR Monty Madaris, DE Malik McDowell, S Montae Nicholson, LB Jon Reschke, DE Auston Robertson, LB Tyriq Thompson, S Demetric Vance, DT Kevin Williams, and QB Messiah DeWeaver
- Michigan State QB Messiah DeWeaver was committed to Michigan at one time
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- Michigan State’s top three running backs combined for 24 carries for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns
- MSU QB Connor Cook went 18/39 for 328 yards and 1 touchdown while being sacked 3 times
- Michigan DT Willie Henry made 5 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks
- The worst thing since Appalachian State 2007 happened
PREDICTIONS
- R.J. Shelton beats Channing Stribling deep for a touchdown
- Michigan holds MSU to 85 yards rushing
- Wilton Speight throws his third INT of the year
- De’Veon Smith scores 2 touchdowns
- Michigan 31, Michigan State 14
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Call it anxiety from the recent past, but I think this a coin flip game on the road. MSU will show up prepared and motivated and they have enough talent to keep the game close enough to where a big play or a big mistake will decide at the end. I am expecting a very stressful game.
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I’m with you a bit there, I’m stressed about the game because each additional game MSU loses, that means this means a little more. They’ve lost 5 in a row. This is now their entire season.
I just think our defense is too good to lose, and their defensive line is too beat up.
Michigan 38 MSU 17. We score 10 unanswered to end the game.
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While Dantonio is there, they will always bring their A game against UM. Plus now they can play their “disrespect” card that they love so much. Ruining Michigan’s season is more important to them than making playoffs.
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How good is their A game? Good enough to squeak by Maryland or Northwestern?
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Good enough to beat Michigan at home if Michigan does not bring their A game.
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Michigan could bring their B- game tomorrow and still easily beat Sparty. They’ve only beaten one D-1 team this year, a sorry Notre Dame team.
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If you say so, and I hope you are right, but Michigan has never easily beaten Sparty while Dantonio was there, and I don’t see that happening this year.
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Not to pat myself on the back, but Michigan basically played their B- game and still won 😉
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I’m with Tartar. Michigan has a significant talent, experience, and coaching advantage. Even homefield won’t mean as much as normal with MSU fans jumping off the bandwagon.
Anything can happen, but Michigan’s B- game is probably better than MSU’s A game.
This is a game that’s usually won or lost in the run game and Michigan has a decided advantage on both ends of that.
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Not sure where you’re seeing a “significant coaching advantage”. Dantonio certainly outcoached Harbaugh in this game last year, and in the season as a whole. Dantonio went into Columbus with his backup QB and beat a team that whipped us at home by 4 TDs. And then went on to win his 2nd conference championship in three years.
As far as home field advantage, if we jump out to a big lead early, we may neutralize that, but if State gets some early breaks that let them score, and frustrates our offense, the crowd will be in it all day.
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Clearly outcoached Harbaugh eh? I think that’s up for dispute.
I used to think the Blue in your name was a tribute to UofM, but now I think it’s a philosophical outlook.
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Well, feel free to compare their accomplishments as major college head coaches and convince me that Harbaugh has performed significantly better than Dantonio.
If you can’t do that, don’t call me negative for pointing out the truth, just because you’d rather the opposite was true. And yes, I’m sure you’ll want to drag the NFL in there, because we both know that if you stick to college, you have no case, but stay relevant..this isn’t the NFL.
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Or you could just comment on the first drive of the game, and which team is better coached and better prepared.
Nuf sed.
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The first drive of a game doesn’t decide the outcome.
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No, but it sets the tone, and for this game it definitely has. Harbaugh is getting the khakis coached off him by Dantonio. Middle of the fourth quarter and we are seriously in danger of losing.
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I was expecting a very close Michigan win earlier in the week but the more I have thought about it, the more I expect Michigan to win comfortably. Not a blowout but comfortably (10-20 pts). I think MSU will slow Michigan’s attack a bit and MSU may get a few big plays on offense but I just don’t see how they sustain drives on offense with a very mediocre rushing attack and a subpar passing attack (especially if the RS freshman QB starts). That will put Michigan in good starting field position and the offense should put up 25-30 pts simply based on that.
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PTSD
I’ve got some of it too. But I’m going to trust logic over emotion.
Michigan by 32
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I completely understand, Crazyjo. I think it might be lingering ‘hoke defective disorder’, I fought that all last season.
Because its a rivalry game anything can happen, and we know that underdog always shows up ready to over achieve…. the risk is the favorite comes in too confident.
This season is different, because MSU isn’t just having a down year, they are bad, really bad. Michigan isn’t just on a roll, we are that good and have basically improved every week.
Coach Grumpy famously said “pride comes before the fall”….
well, printing that recruiting poster that said, “those who stayed already are champions” well, that might have been showing a little pride. Not only does pride come before the fall, but Karma is a bitch.
Michigan 42, little brother 12
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I love the confidence. The thing msu has going for them at this point is that they have nothing to lose but the game. They can come out being aggressive and overplaying on O and D in the hopes that they’ll get the big plays. Basically, I could see them switching things up to “go big” every time and play some playground football. That’s what scares me most.
However, if we press our physical and talent advantage, I don’t see how we lose the game. I’ll go a bit more conservative and say it’s a 34-13 game.
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Michigan 35, Michigan State 3
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Michigan 33, MSU 13.
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Michigan 56, Spartans 11
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I expect Speight to have a sub-par game. This is his first tough road game, and State will bring pressure every chance it gets. State will win the turnover battle and will cash at least one score off an INT, and take at least one Michigan TD away on a forced fumble deep in their territory. They will get at least one other score off of a big offensive play or special teams, but won’t be able to do much consistently on offense. We will have trouble moving the ball due to a shaky passing game and a stacked box, and will have to score late to finally seal the win. State will make at least one attempt to deliberately injure a key Michigan player (probably Speight, Peppers or Darboh), but will hopefully not succeed.
Michigan 27 State 13
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Boy, were you wrong on this one. Speight was clearly the best QB on the field and was a real weapon for Michigan. Unfortunately they decided to use the passing game less in the second half when the game was clearly in control. Reassuring that Michigan could have gone back to the deep passing game at any point and probably scored.
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The irony here is that WCB was trying to call out my predictions during the game below. Ignoring his own.
BTW WCB, Stribling had a very good game despite the late mistake. MSU couldn’t pass the ball till UM went into prevent mode.
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The Stribling shade is like the inverse of the Isaac love. It’ll never die.
See an objective take on not only how good Stribling is now… But how good he was already LAST YEAR.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-football-5-most-underrated-players-every-conference/
Channing Stribling has been every bit the shutdown corner Jourdan Lewis has been for Michigan the past two seasons, but only now is he starting to get his due press. Last year he gave up more than two receptions just once all season, and this year he has yielded just nine catches on 30 targets, giving up no touchdowns while coming down with three interceptions and five pass breakups. Opposing QBs have a QB rating of 4.7 when throwing to his area, which is the lowest in the country by a considerable margin among corners that have been targeted at least 30 times (Houston’s Howard Wilson has a QB rating against of 28.4).
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It’s not shade. It’s a prediction. BTW, I predicted that Stribling would have a pretty good career at Michigan. If this thing doesn’t happen, then you’re welcome to come back and roast me.
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You’ve been pretty negative about Stribling for a few years, though you’re certainly not alone.
But hey – you made a positive prediction about Smith – so we’re making progress.
Go Blue!
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And he just got scorched for a key TD.
You were saying?
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Things I want to see
-No injuries
-OL keeping McDowell in check.
-Speight in control. Ground game moving forward consistently. Time of possession dominance.
-Deveon Smith’s most productive game of the year. This is what he was built for.
-TEs and FBs making Bulloch wish he took more pills.
-CB dominance over Corley and Shelton.
-No special teams screwups
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This game, as always, will only be about the hitting. Records don’t matter. Talent doesn’t matter ….. much. The only thing that really does matter is who wants to hit for four full quarters.
The worm has turned. Our young men are going to hit young Sparty in the mouth from the beginning of this football game, to the final whistle.
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Michigan didn’t want to hit last year?
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Did I say that?
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Implied. If the game is only about hitting and Michigan lost the game…
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I implied no such thing.
Your inference is incorrect.
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I can’t see sparty putting together successful drives, but points off a UM miscue/turnover/1 big play, maybe. Give me UM 38, sparty 10
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