Preview: Michigan at Ohio State

Preview: Michigan at Ohio State


November 25, 2016

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RUSH OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH DEFENSE

Michigan is #19 in rush offense (235 yards/game) and #25 in yards per carry (5.23), but they’re #68 in Adjusted Line Yards. The line has been struggling, especially since left tackle Grant Newsome was lost for the season in the Wisconsin game. True freshman Ben Bredeson has just been okay at left guard, while fifth year senior right guard Kyle Kalis has had a rough couple weeks. Running back De’Veon Smith played a great game last week with a career-high in yards on 6.9 yards/carry. Backup Chris Evans has had a few good weeks and has averaged 7.4 yards/carry this season. Michigan doesn’t have the speed or athleticism to run outside much, so Smith will have to run right at the defense and try to churn out yards inside. Ohio State is #89 in Adjusted Line Yards on defense, #18 in rush defense (119 yards allowed/game), and #17 in yards allowed per carry (3.37). The defensive line is just so-so against the run, but the linebackers are outstanding and very athletic. Junior Raekwon McMillan (6’2″, 243 lbs.) leads the team with 71 tackles, followed by sophomore linebacker Jerome Baker (6’1″, 225, 64 tackles), sophomore safety Malik Hooker (6’2″, 205, 60), and junior linebacker Chris Worley (6’2″, 228, 48). The linebackers can all run sideline to sideline, and McMillan is solid stopping the inside run, too. Michigan has shown that they can run against stiff defenses at times, but if they can’t, it’s going to be a long day for the offense.
Advantage: Ohio State

Hit the jump for more on Ohio State.





PASS OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE

Michigan is #83 in passing yards (216 yards/game) and #32 in passer rating. After watching backup quarterback John O’Korn play against Indiana last week, I think Michigan needs starter Wilton Speight to play and play well after hurting his shoulder against Iowa two weeks ago. O’Korn isn’t as bad as he showed, but I don’t think he’s ready to play at a high level after sitting on the bench for most of the year. Speight has thrown 15 TDs and 4 INTs on the year, while O’Korn was 7/16 for 59 yards last week. The passing offense has bogged down the past couple weeks, which means Michigan has been unable to consistently get the ball in the hands of some players who have been big playmakers this year: WR Amara Darboh, TE Jake Butt, and WR Jehu Chesson. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michigan try to spread the defense more laterally, not only to provide some easier throws, but also to protect Speight (who is expected to play). The Wolverines are #24 in sacks allowed and #27 in Adjusted Sack Rate, but that’s in part due to Speight’s nifty footwork in the pocket; O’Korn is more athletic, but he doesn’t have the same pocket awareness. Ohio State is tied for #53 in sacks, led by junior end Tyquan Lewis (6’4″, 266) with 7.5. In the defensive backfield, the Buckeyes are tied for #5 in interceptions (17 total), 6 of which have been returned for touchdowns. Free safety Malik Hooker (6’2″, 205) leads the squad with 5 picks, which have been returned for 165 yards and 2 TDs. Cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Gareon Conley have 4 and 3 interceptions, respectively, though Conley is the least dynamic with the ball in his hands. The Buckeyes will play a fair amount of quarters coverage, but they’ll switch up coverages and play tight. I’m guessing defensive coordinator Greg Schiano will blitz Michigan’s quarterbacks – whichever one plays – and take his chances with getting beaten over the top, which has been a struggle for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Ohio State

RUSH DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH OFFENSE

Michigan is #10 in rush defense (109 yards allowed/game) and #6 in yards allowed per carry (3.02). The defensive line keeps the linebackers pretty clean, so the three ‘backers lead the team in tackles. Middle linebacker Ben Gedeon (88), SAM Jabrill Peppers (64), and WILL Mike McCray (62) are those guys and play virtually all the snaps at linebacker. The line is #1 in Adjusted Line Yards, and nose tackle Ryan Glasgow has to be one of the most underrated linemen in the country. He’ll be matched up at times with Ohio State’s Pat Elflein, considered to be one of the better centers in the country, but Michigan might want to move Glasgow around a bit and have him take on the offensive guards, who are less effective. Glasgow was unavailable for last year’s Ohio State game, and I think that was a big reason that OSU was able to run over the Wolverines. The three linebackers have combined for 40 tackles for loss, but six linemen have between 5 and 9 TFLs. This is where Michigan is going to have to dominate the game if they want a chance to win. The Buckeyes are #8 with 263 yards/game and #11 in rushing average (5.67 yards), and the offensive line is #3 in Adjusted Line Yards. They lost two 1st round picks from the offense last year in RB Ezekiel Elliott and LT Taylor Decker, and their replacements aren’t as dynamic. Running back Mike Weber has 1,046 yards on 6.3 yards/carry, and he’s a guy who can power through some tackles. The speedster is H-back Curtis Samuel (7.7 yards/carry, 7 TDs), who will be used to run outside on power read plays. Quarterback J.T. Barrett has 722 rushing yards and 8 TDs on 4.4 yards/carry. OSU’s offense is similar to Maryland’s, except OSU is a lot more athletic; the Wolverines struggled with the Terrapins’ outside runs. Michigan cornerback Channing Stribling is going to need to be more physical than he has been against the run, and I think this is a game where the injured Jeremy Clark would have been a big help. One big key will be whether the likes of Taco Charlton, Chase Winovich, and Jabrill Peppers can keep the 6’2″, 222 lb. Barrett in check on third and fourth downs.
Advantage: Ohio State

PASS DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS OFFENSE

Michigan is #1 in pass defense (137 yards allowed/game) and #2 in passer rating defense. Cornerback Jourdan Lewis is outstanding on one side and set the school record for career pass breakups last weekend (he now has 44). Michigan should try to match him up with Samuel (61 catches, 790 yards, 7 TDs), but OSU moves Samuel around so much that it will be tough to follow him one-on-one the whole time. Elsewhere, Michigan makes most of its hay by putting pressure on the quarterback with extensive blitz packages and some impressive defensive line play. Michigan is #8 in sacks (36), but nobody has more than 6.5. Pressure comes from everywhere. The guy with 6.5 is defensive end Taco Charlton, but his backup, Chase Winovich, is second with 5.5. Michigan’s biggest advantage is probably inside, where Chris Wormley, Ryan Glasgow, and Maurice Hurst, Jr. can all get in Barrett’s face. Ohio State is #67 in Adjusted Sack Rate and tied for #31 in sacks allowed. Right tackle Isaiah Prince and left guard Michael Jordan are young and inexperienced, and I think the Wolverines will have an advantage if they can stop the run a little bit and force Barrett to throw. Stribling will probably be matched up most with Noah Brown (27 catches, 345 yards, 7 TDs), and it will be key for Stribling to maintain discipline without getting tricked by OSU’s run-pass option plays. The Buckeyes also have another pretty good slot receiver in Dontre Wilson (26 catches, 343 yards, 5 TDs). There are good receiving options available, and Barrett completes 63.4% of his throws for 24 TDs and 4 INTs. If Michigan’s front seven can slow down Ohio State’s running game without having to use the safeties too close to the line, then this should be a solid matchup for the Wolverines. But if they have to bring Dymonte Thomas and Delano Hill up to stop Weber, Barrett, and Samuel, then the RPOs could kill them.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

  • Ohio State players recruited by Michigan include: DT Joshua Alabi, LB Jerome Baker, LB Dante Booker, LB Joe Burger, OT Matthew Burrell, CB Cam Burrows, CB Gareon Conley, DE Jashon Cornell, CB Wayne Davis, TE Luke Farrell, S Jordan Fuller, QB Dwayne Haskins, TE Jake Hausmann, DT Michael Hill, LB Justin Hilliard, S Malik Hooker, DE Sam Hubbard, DE Dre’Mont Jones, OT Jamarco Jones, OG Michael Jordan, OG Demetrius Knox, CB Marshon Lattimore, OT Evan Lisle, WR Austin Mack, OG Billy Price, OT Isaiah Prince, S Erick Smith, OT Kyle Trout, CB Damon Webb, RB Mike Weber, RB Antonio Williams, C Jack Wohlabaugh
  • Ohio State players from the state of Michigan include: DT Joshua Alabama, OG Michael Jordan, CB Damon Webb, RB Mike Weber
  • Ohio State CB Gareon Conley and RB Mike Weber were committed to Michigan at one time
  • Michigan OG Kyle Kalis was committed to Ohio State at one time

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . . 

  • Ohio State 42, Michigan 13 on November 28, 2015
  • Ezekiel Elliott ran for 214 yards and 2 TDs, while J.T. Barrett ran for 139 yards and 3 TDs
  • Jake Rudock was 19/32 for 263 yards and 1 TD
  • Jehu Chesson caught 8 passes for 111 yards and 1 TD
  • Ohio State led 14-10 at halftime and outscored Michigan 28-3 in the second half

PREDICTIONS

  • Weber runs for 90 yards and 1 TD
  • Samuel runs for 60 yard and 1 TD
  • Jabrill Peppers throws a pass
  • John O’Korn as primary QB: Ohio State 31, Michigan 10
  • Wilton Speight (looking healthy) as primary QB: Ohio State 21, Michigan 17

9 comments

  1. Comments: 24
    Joined: 9/30/2015
    ScKon
    Nov 25, 2016 at 7:39 AM

    Clearly having a less than 100% Wilt, or a 100% O’Korn hurts…. but that being said, osu needed ot to beat WS, barely squeaked by MSU, Northwestern and were played pretty tough by IN until late, not to mention losing to PSU. These guys are far from the team they were last year, we clearly are a stronger team than we were last year. Regardless of JH says, you have to believe he has been game planning all season long for this game.
    I think it’s going to take some points from the defense and/or special teams to pull this one out, but I also think that is likely to happen. Peppers is one of the most talented players in the country, he has played well, but has not taken over a game yet. Its his time, this is his stage. Peppers throws for a TD, has a return for a TD and a reception for a TD. Michigan 24 osu 21

  2. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Nov 25, 2016 at 8:28 AM

    I would be surprised if OSU scored any more than 21 on offense. They scored a remarkably consistent 17-24 points vs PSU, Wisc*, MSU, and NW – none of which are quite as good as our D. They did well against Indiana on paper (38 points) but 3 of 5 TDs were thanks to defense or special teams (2 drives were <10 yards and 1 was 33 yards). Drop the gifts and you get to the aforementioned range in 5/5 games.

    Credit to them for not getting totally shut down by anyone, but this isn't the dominant O they've had in years past. I like our chances to keep them in check without considering that Don Brown is supposed to be a run-stuffing genius going against a one-dimensional offense.

    *The TD in OT doesn't count.

    The bigger question is obviously our offense. Still…

    I would be surprised if UM scored fewer than 13. Our 3 worst games are 13, 14, and 20. It's true that we've been held down by worse defenses than OSUs but also put up much higher point totals against top 25 defenses. OSU's D ranks somewhere between Wisconsin and Colorado/UCF/Iowa/Penn State (all top 25 Ds per S&P and FEI only disagrees about Iowa). Point is: this level of defense isn't going to be unfamiliar.

    It's true that QB is a concern. But we've been able to run the ball more consistently than throw it against those top 25 defenses. Let's say we get O'Korn vs Indiana level play from QB. What's the worst-case scenario for a Harbaugh-coached offense against a top 10 defense? I hope we can agree it's not getting shut-out. Last year's team scored 13 on OSU and I think this year's offense is better (even with OKorn) while OSU's D has taken a step back (though surprisingly not much of one statistically). We have Jabril Peppers, Jehu Chesson, Amarah Darboh, and Jake Butt to make plays.

    I expect a very close game that will come down to miscellaneous random event(s). A one-sided blowout would be shock. Harbaugh and Meyer have both played to not lose a few times this year and that will probably continue for whoever manages to get a lead.

    Illogical take of the year: We want it more.

    Go Blue!

    • Comments: 359
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      GKblue
      Nov 25, 2016 at 9:09 AM

      “I expect a very close game that will come down to miscellaneous random event(s).”

      I like this, and I agree excepting I really want our seniors esp to play the game of their life and be the force behind these events. Any win is a big win.

      Lank you are approximately human.

  3. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Nov 25, 2016 at 8:29 AM

    I am not convinced that the Speight-will-play talk isn’t just gamesmanship. I hope he can get in there tho.

  4. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Nov 25, 2016 at 8:31 AM

    Michigan 18 – Ohio State 17

  5. Comments: 191
    Joined: 8/13/2015
    crazyjoedavola
    Nov 25, 2016 at 8:49 AM

    Only Alabama can hang with and beat Ohio St when the Buckeyes are firing on all cylinders. I believe that Ohio St will show up and play their A game at home with so much on the line. Michigan is a one-dimensional team with O’Korn at the helm, and that one dimension is not very good. Ohio St has the system and the horses in place to successfully run inside and outside against this Michigan defense. Buckeyes will win by 30+.

  6. Comments: 1863
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Nov 25, 2016 at 10:49 AM

    I hope our playmakers show up:
    23-17, UM

    GO BLUE

  7. Comments: 22
    Joined: 11/23/2015
    Burge333
    Nov 25, 2016 at 2:38 PM

    I tend to think this game might come down to ‘intangibles’ Michigan has the experience edge. Michigan also has a number of seniors from Ohio who desperately want to win this game, after Ohio State’s past two years I don’t think you can say they have the same incentive. It should be a great football game, but I would rather have the senior laden team than the inexperienced one. MSU has proven that over the years.
    One thing no one else has mentioned is the back up quarterback. Michigan has been brutal on QB’s this year. If Barrett runs a lot you can see a scenario when Ohio’s backup is in the game. If that happens I thing the OSU pass and run offence vs UM defence tilt heavily in favour of UM. We have wrecked a lot of QB’s this year.
    A non game outcome factor is that this is almost a must win for Harbaugh… As much as we don’t want to admit it, Ohio is close to being on Bama’s level recruiting wise. Recruiting is a momentum game and UM needs to give recruits a reason to go to UM besides Harbaugh. They will keep picking Ohio if they can go there and compete for a championship in down years. Unless Michigan closes strong Bama and Ohio will get all the 5 stars they want this year and the rest of the teams will be left with scraps and after thoughts. We have seen the difference Peppers has made, to get players like Leatherwood, Holmes and Harris we need to win games like these.
    I think UM wins a good game and Speight plays, I wouldn’t be surprised if they win by 2 touchdowns. OSU has not dominated quality competition in tight games and UM is the best team they will have faced this year, probably by a long shot.

  8. Comments: 1364
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    WindyCityBlue
    Nov 26, 2016 at 12:10 PM

    What it really comes down to is whether Harbaugh can outcoach Meyer. Can he put a better game plan out there, can he use his players better, and can he call better, less predictable plays? Based on how the season has gone, I don’t think that’s likely. I’ll hope for a reasonably close game, but a 2 or 3 TD loss by Michigan is very possible.

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