Preview: Michigan vs. Indiana

Preview: Michigan vs. Indiana


November 18, 2016
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Options are limited. She’s wearing red and white, so she counts, I guess.




RUSH OFFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH DEFENSE

Despite a rough outing against Iowa last week, Michigan is still #19 nationally with 236 yards/game and #23 with 5.31 yards/carry. Some fans are getting antsy with De’Veon Smith after he averaged just 2.3 yards/carry last week and failed to burrow out of the endzone, resulting in an Iowa safety. Meanwhile, freshman Chris Evans is averaging 7.82 yards/carry through ten games. The Wolverines offensive line struggled, too, and right guard Kyle Kalis was largely to blame for the safety on Smith. Michigan is #55 nationally in Adjusted Line Yards. On the other side, Indiana is #72 in Defensive Adjusted Line Yards. They’re #52 in rushing yards allowed (156 per game) but a respectable #31 in yards allowed per carry (3.74). Maryland, Michigan State, and Ohio State are the only three teams to top even 3.7 yards/carry on them, and Penn State with Saquon Barkley averaged a measly 1.71 last week. Linebacker Tegray Scales (6’0″, 230 lbs.), linebacker Marcus Oliver (6’1″, 240), and strong safety Marcelino Ball (6’0″, 210) lead the team with 94, 74, and 68 tackles, respectively. Scales (15.0) and Oliver (10.5) lead the team in tackles for loss. Statistically, it seems like Michigan would have an edge, but based on last year’s inability to run against the Hoosiers and the struggles last week, I’m not sure about that.
Advantage: Indiana

Hit the jump for more on Indiana.

PASS OFFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS DEFENSE

The Wolverines are #68 in passing offense (232 yards/game) and #23 in passing efficiency. However, Michigan will most likely be without starting quarterback Wilton Speight after he was injured late in the Iowa game (which I discussed HERE). On the plus side, backup John O’Korn is a former starter at Houston and has a QB rating of 162.09, which would make him the #10 quarterback in the country if he qualified; naturally, most of his playing time has come against other teams’ backups. The receivers had a rough week last week, but starting wide receivers Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson both average more than 16 yards/catch, and tight end Jake Butt (38 catches, 460 yards, 4 TDs) was named a Mackey Award finalist. Michigan is #20 in Adjusted Sack Rate and sits at #22 in sacks allowed (1.4 per game). Indiana is tied for #54 in sacks (22 so far), and they’re led by Scales (4.0) and 6’2″, 250 lb. defensive end Nile Sykes (4.0). They’re #73 in passing yards allowed (236 yards/game) and #38 in passer rating defense. The top cover man is 5’10”, 175 lb. Rashard Fant (2 INTs, 16 PBUs), who is #1 in the nation in passes defensed. Maybe I’m being irrational, but I think the Wolverines should be able to pop some receivers open despite O’Korn’s “inexperience” and I have a hard time believing they’ll be able to shut down both the run and the pass.
Advantage: Michigan

RUSH DEFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH OFFENSE

Michigan is #2 in Defensive Adjusted Line Yards and #14 in yards allowed on the ground, giving up just 113 per game. Only two teams (UCF, Michigan State) have mustered even 3.4 yards/carry against the Wolverines. Middle linebacker Ben Gedeon is pulling away as the leading tackler with 76, while SAM linebacker Jabrill Peppers (59) and WILL Mike McCray (56) follow. Peppers (13), Gedeon (12), and McCray (10) all have double digit tackles for loss, as well. The defensive line has generally done a very good job of eating blocks and even getting penetration, but the linebackers have been criticized for missing tackles at times, particularly against quick backs like Lorenzo Harrison (Maryland) and Akrum Wadley (Iowa) in recent weeks. Indiana is #64 in Adjusted Line Yards, and their running game has taken a step back from last year, when Jordan Howard (now with the Chicago Bears) was lined up in the pistol and ran for 238 yards against the Wolverines. The Hoosiers are #78 in rushing yards (165 per game) after ranking #26 with 211 yards/game last year. Devine Redding (5’10”, 208) leads the team with 901 yards and 5 TDs on 4.74 yards/carry; he’s a solid all-around back without being great in any one area. Other options are freshman Tyler Natee (6’0″, 270), who plays some “Wildcat” QB, and change-of-pace QB Zander Diamont, who is averaging 8.3 yards/carry on 23 attempts. Indiana has a good right guard/tackle in All-American Dan Feeney, but otherwise, the line is unimposing. Against ranked opponents this year (Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State), the Hoosiers have averaged under 3.0 yards/carry in each game and have had anywhere from 88-110 yards on the ground. Michigan should be able to handle them up front, but it would be nice to see a little more rotation at linebacker to get Mike McCray off the field, since he’s now sporting braces on two joints (shoulder, knee). I’m hoping to see Devin Bush get some run; hopefully no questionable targeting penalties will take him off the field.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS OFFENSE

Michigan is #1 in pass defense (132 yards allowed/game) and #3 in passer rating defense. They’re tied for #8 in sacks (33) and tied for #33 in interceptions (11). The best pass rushers are defensive end Taco Charlton (5.5 sacks) and defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr. (3.0 sacks). Michigan also has two cornerbacks who are playing well against the pass in Jourdan Lewis and Channing Stribling, the latter of whom has 4 interceptions on the season. The Wolverines had some early struggles against the pass when safeties were taken advantage of, but Don Brown has largely mitigated that issue by improving technique as well as reducing the amount of man coverage the safeties are playing. The weak link has been the inside linebacker spots, where the 240+ lb. inside ‘backers struggle covering backs and slot receivers in space. Indiana is #20 in passing with almost 303 yards/game, but they’re just #47 in passer rating. Junior college transfer quarterback Richard Lagow (6’6″, 237) is a bit like last year’s QB, Nate Sudfeld, in that he’s a big kid who’s not much of a runner. He has thrown 17 touchdowns on 8.2 yards/attempt, but he has also thrown 13 interceptions; that includes 5 picks against Wake Forest and 2 in each of three other games. From what I’ve seen, his mechanics are rather inconsistent, so if Michigan can get pressure on him, they should be able to render him somewhat ineffectual. Indiana is #26 in Adjusted Sack Rate and #58 in sacks allowed. Indiana plays with tempo at times, which can slow down the pass rush, but last year’s rushing offense really stymied Michigan’s defensive line. The defense shouldn’t get quite so worn out this year.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

  • Indiana players recruited by Michigan: CB Tyler Green, S Jayme Thompson
    • Former Michigan commit Kiante Enis was dismissed from the team in September for alleged child molestation
  • Former Michigan offensive line coach Greg Frey is in his sixth year as Indiana’s offensive line coach. He was nominated for the Broyles Award last year, which is given to the nation’s top assistant coach.
  • Indiana players from the state of Michigan include: LB Kenny Arnold (Orchard Lake St. Mary’s)

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . . 

  • November 19, 2015: Michigan 48, Indiana 41 in double overtime
  • Michigan outgained Indiana, 581 yards to 527
  • QB Jake Rudock led Michigan in rushing with 7 carries for 64 yards
  • Michigan failed to score a rushing touchdown
  • Rudock was 33/46 for 440 yards, 6 TDs, and 1 INT through the air
  • Jehu Chesson had 10 catches for 207 yards and 4 TDs
  • Indiana RB Jordan Howard (now with the Chicago Bears) had 35 carries for 238 yards and 2 TDs

PREDICTIONS

  • John O’Korn throws 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in his first start at Michigan
  • Richard Lagow throws an interception to Jourdan Lewis
  • Michigan’s runners average 4.0 yards/carry
  • Maurice Hurst, Jr. gets 1.5 sacks
  • Michigan 31, Indiana 17

8 comments

  1. Comments: 1356
    Joined: 8/13/2015
  2. Comments: 191
    Joined: 8/13/2015
    crazyjoedavola
    Nov 18, 2016 at 8:43 AM

    I think this game will be a good fight with both teams moving the ball but also turning it over. I want to see Michigan play with some passion and anger after the loss, and it will be interesting to see what the offense looks like with O’Korn at the helm. I see this as a close win like so many UM/Indiana games in recent past but I don’t see a possibility for a blowout win. Indiana has a decent defense now, and their tempo will cause problems for the Michigan defense.

    • Comments: 142
      Joined: 8/12/2015
      coachernie
      Nov 18, 2016 at 6:42 PM

      If this is a close game I see IU winning it. We need to get off to a great start to rebuild that confidence. Glad it is a home game.
      Also our D has been exposed big time. I see this as a very high scoring affair with our D struggling mightily to keep IU in check.
      IU 51
      UM 47 (we hand IU a safety this time).

  3. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Nov 18, 2016 at 9:54 AM

    RBs tend to get blame/credit for the run game but it’s mostly about the OL. Smith didn’t revert last week, the OL got torn up. I suspect the impact of the Newsome injury has been masked by the level of competition.

    Indiana represents a chance to get back on track, but they aren’t pushovers. If Michigan can’t run on them, it’s time to push the panic button and wonder if we’ve seen the last W of the season. Despite the attention on the QB, the OL is the most important thing-to-watch tomorrow.

    QB will be fine, IMO. I have a ton of faith in O’Korn. He has a track record, 2 seasons under Harbaugh, and he battled with Speight all offseason. Whatever margin exists isn’t huge.

    The notion that he’s a reckless gunslinger (compared to Speight) doesn’t worry me – might be exactly what we need against OSU. And if it pushes the coaches to get a little more thoughtful in play-calling, we might end up having just as good of a chance with O’Korn anyway.

    I do think it’ll hurt us a bit against Indiana. Everyone needs to transition a bit. I have little doubt that Harbaugh picked the right guy at QB. But I also think Harbaugh was overestimating how good (and how resilient) Speight was. From a development perspective, that faith and expectation is great. But Speight wasn’t ready to win the Iowa game via the deep ball even though Harbaugh/Fisch clearly thought he was.

    Iowa was a humbling loss. I think Harbaugh/Fisch will learn from it and call a much smarter game against Indiana.

    As for the defense — they’re great. The tackling issues that have bubbled up should get fixed. This Indiana team will certainly present opportunities to prove that Michigan can stop the outside run game. Getting the continually underrated Delano Hill back healthy should make a difference.

    I don’t see a reason to differ from what Vegas expects – a multi-TD victory – though it does feel a little high, I don’t think Indiana will seriously test Michigan without a lot of luck.

    30-10 good guys

  4. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Nov 18, 2016 at 9:55 AM

    Michigan ran for 5ypc as a team last year. If they don’t get the (sack-adjusted) number over that this year I’ll be a little disappointed.

    • Comments: 191
      Joined: 8/13/2015
      crazyjoedavola
      Nov 18, 2016 at 11:58 AM

      Indiana has a better defense than last year and Michigan’s OL is still a disappointment, I think that Michigan will move the ball but it will be a combination of big chunk plays and tackles for losses. I see the same exact thing when Indiana has the ball, and I see both teams committing several turnovers. So to quote writers on a certain Michigan site, it will be a “chaos” game.

      • Comments: 6285
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Nov 18, 2016 at 6:31 PM

        Indiana D is better but M’s run-blocking has been far better than it was last year. Until Iowa, M generally has avoid TFL’s on offense.

        I think the mismatch of our D and their O is too big to create a chaos game. It would take the offense floundering again.

  5. Comments: 1863
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Nov 18, 2016 at 10:01 PM

    I’ll go with 34-20, UM

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