Preview: Michigan vs. Ohio State

RUSH OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH DEFENSE

Michigan is #35 in rushing offense (194 yards/game) and #52 in rushing average (4.64 yards/carry). Starter Karan Higdon has been hampered by an ankle injury over the past couple weeks and managed just 7 attempts for 20 yards last week against Wisconsin. With Ty Isaac working through an injury, Michigan’s three-man rotation was largely limited to Chris Evans (11 carries for 25 yards last week). Michigan is #20 in Adjusted Line Yards and #49 in Standard Down Line Yards. The line had been playing better for a few weeks, but the Wisconsin game saw the lowest yards per carry (1.57) all season, as well as the lowest rushing output (58 yards), with the previous low being 102 against Michigan State. Ohio State is #12 in rushing defense (114 yards allowed/game), and they allow the 10th fewest yards per carry (3.16). Their defense is actually #1 in Adjusted Line Yards and #4 in Standard Down Line Yards, so they’re very stout up front with a lot of guys they can rotate in as part of the front four. They’re #8 in tackles for loss with defense ends Nick Bosa (6’4″, 270 lbs.) and Sam Hubbard (6’5″, 265) leading the way with 11.5 and 7.5, respectively. Somewhat surprisingly, Ohio State’s top two tacklers are safeties Jordan Fuller (6’2″, 207) with 54 and Damon Webb (5’11”, 195) with 49. The last time Ohio State’s leading tackler wasn’t a linebacker and the last time when the leading tackler didn’t have 100 tackles was in 2011, when safety C.J. Barnett led the squad with 75 tackles. The Buckeyes have some quality linebackers, but they don’t have a dominant player like Ryan Shazier or Raekwon McMillan.
Advantage: Ohio State

Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.

PASS OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE

Michigan is an abysmal #112 in passing offense (166.2 yards/game) and #111 in passing efficiency. The 8 touchdowns they’ve thrown are #118 in the country, and the worst news is yet to come: after suffering a concussion last week against Wisconsin, Michigan’s best quarterback, Brandon Peters, is unlikely to play. Likely starter John O’Korn has thrown 1 TD and 5 INTs this season, and the primary backups, Alex Malzone and Michael Sessa, have never taken a game snap. The other option is to burn freshman Dylan McCaffrey’s redshirt in game 12, which isn’t likely nor a great idea. There’s a very good chance that Michigan’s leading receiver, Grant Perry (24 catches, 298 yards, 1 TD), will finish with Michigan’s lowest leading receiving output since Roy Roundtree’s 434 yards in 2009. Michigan is #102 in sacks allowed (29) and #118 in Adjusted Sack Rate. The offensive line has had two quarterbacks knocked out of games (or the season) because of an inability to slow down the pass rush, and there’s no reason to expect that to change this week. Ohio State is #22 in sacks, led by Nick Bosa (5.0) and Tyquan Lewis (6’4″, 265) with 4.5. The Buckeyes are #15 in passing defense (177.5 yards allowed/game) and #28 in passing efficiency defense. They’re #65 in interceptions with 9, led by Michigan native Webb (3 INTs for 47 yards), but they’re #20 in passes defended (58) and #7 in yards allowed per attempt (5.9). If Peters can play, this looks rough. If Peters doesn’t play, it looks disgusting.
Advantage: Ohio State

RUSH DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH OFFENSE

Michigan is #15 in rushing defense (115 yards allowed/game) and #17 in yards allowed per rush (3.41). They have done very well in almost every game, but Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor ended up with 6.95 yards/carry after a late collapse. Losing the starting QB and all hope for an offensive touchdown can do that to a defense. Middle linebacker Devin Bush, Jr. paces the team with 89 tackles, and both LB/S Khaleke Hudson (66) and DE Chase Winovich (64) have passed Mike McCray II (63) for second on the team. Winovich (16.0), Hudson (15.5), and nose tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr. (13.5) lead the team in tackles for loss, and Hurst consistently ranks as the top defensive player in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country, according to Pro Football Focus. Ohio State is #12 in rushing offense (252.6 yards/game) and their 6.03 yards per rush is #7, tied with Alabama. Starting running back J.K. Dobbins’s lowest rushing average in any game this year was his 4.25 yards per carry against Illinois last week; by comparison, Higdon has 5 games under that mark. Overall, he has 1,089 yards on 7.3 yards/carry.  Quarterback J.T. Barrett averages 5.3 and “backup” running back Weber averages 6.8; they have 8 and 9 touchdowns, respectively. The offensive line is #7 in Adjusted Line Yards and #1 in Standard Down Line Yards. The weakest spot up front is right tackle Isaiah Prince. The running backs and line are good, but the most frustrating part is probably going to be Barrett, who has a tendency to make just enough plays in the run game to keep the ball moving. He’s quick enough to run away from your front seven guys, and he’s big and strong enough to run through tackles for an extra yard or two every time. Michigan has struggled against QB runs in the option game this year, and I don’t think they’ll get that fixed for this week.
Advantage: Ohio State

PASS DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS OFFENSE

Michigan is #1 in passing defense (144.4 yards allowed/game), #3 in yards allowed per attempt (5.7), and #4 in passing efficiency defense. The Wolverines are tied at #65 in interceptions, and their top cornerback, Lavert Hill, should be returning from a concussion he suffered two weeks ago. David Long is the other corner, and he’s also excellent. Both have 2 picks, and teams don’t really even attempt to throw at them very often anymore. Instead, other teams will go after the safeties and linebackers in coverage. Michigan is tied at #6 in sacks (36), and both Hudson and Winovich have 7 sacks this season. Ohio State is #18 in passing offense (293.6 yards/game), #19 in yards per attempt (8.5), and #7 in passing efficiency. Barrett threw a career-high 4 interceptions against Iowa two weeks ago in a 55-24 loss, but that was very uncharacteristic of him; he hadn’t even thrown 3 picks since his second career game, against Virginia Tech in 2014. The Buckeyes have a varied threat in the passing game. Parris Campbell (6’1″, 208) leads the team in yards with 518 (on 35 catches), K.J. Hill (6’0″, 198) leads the team in receptions with 49 (and 466 yards), and Johnnie Dixon (5’11”, 195) is the big-play guy with 24.3 yards/catch and a team-leading 8 touchdowns. Meanwhile, sophomore Binjimen Victor (6’4″, 195) is second on the team in touchdowns (7) on just 23 receptions. The Buckeyes are #30 in sacks allowed (16), which is also the ranking of their Adjusted Sack Rate. They are decent up front against the pass, but right tackle Prince is a weakness and right guard Demetrius Knox (6’4″, 308) has also struggled at times. Despite Michigan’s superior rankings, I think this will play out in a fashion favorable for the Buckeyes. With field position likely to be in Ohio State’s favor, they should be able to run the ball and then hit Michigan for some big plays.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• Ohio State players recruited by Michigan include: OT Joshua Alabi, LB Jerome Baker, LB Dante Booker, LB Baron Browning, OT Matt Burrell, DE Jonathan Cooper, DT Jashon Cornell, CB Wayne Davis, OG Wyatt Davis, TE Luke Farrell, S Jordan Fuller, WR Trevon Grimes, WR Jaylen Harris, QB Dwayne Haskins, TE Jake Hausmann, WR K.J. Hill, DT Michael Hill, LB Justin Hilliard, DE Sam Hubbard, DT Dre’mont Jones, OT Jamarco Jones, OG Michael Jordan, OG Demetrius Knox, WR Austin Mack, QB Tate Martell, OT Josh Myers, CB Jeffrey Okudah, C Billy Price, OT Isaiah Prince, S Isaiah Pryor, CB Amir Riep, CB Kendall Sheffield, S Erick Smith, WR Binjimen Victor, CB Shaun Wade, S Damon Webb, RB Mike Weber, LB Pete Werner, RB Antonio Williams, CB Marcus Williamson, C Jack Wohlabaugh, DE Chase Young
• Ohio State RB Mike Weber was previously committed to Michigan
• Ohio State players from the state of Michigan include: OT Joshua Alabi, OG Michael Jordan, S Damon Webb, RB Mike Weber
• Michigan players from the state of Ohio include: FB Matt Brown, LS Camaron Cheeseman, LB Noah Furbush, P Will Hart, OT Joel Honigford, OT James Hudson, S Tyree Kinnel, LB Mike McCray II, S Jake McCurry, P Brad Robbins, OT Greg Robinson, LB Adam Shibley, OT Nolan Ulizio

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . . 

• Ohio State 30, Michigan 27 on November 26, 2016
• Wilton Speight was 23/36 for 219 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs (one returned for a TD, one for a near TD)
• Jabrill Peppers made his 1 and only career interception
• J.T. Barrett ran 30 carries for 125 yards and 1 TD
• Michigan was the victim of several questionable referee decisions (LINK)

PREDICTIONS

• This game won’t really be competitive
• John O’Korn throws 3 interceptions
• Michigan’s rushing defense gets gashed in the second half
• Ohio State 38, Michigan 6

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