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Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
Michigan is tied for #82 nationally with 161 yards/game on the ground, and they are #77 with 4.23 yards/carry. The Wolverines have a wacky rotation at running back, which has seen leading rusher De’Veon Smith (621 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 6 TDs) get the bulk of the carries, two 5-star recruits sit on the bench, an injured Drake Johnson grab a carry here or there, and the backup fullback become a steady contributor. Seven players have rushed for 140+ yards this year, including quarterback Jake Rudock and wide receiver Jehu Chesson. The Wolverines are #72 in Adjusted Line Yards and #63 in Power Success Rate. The past two weeks have seen way too many false starts, illegal snaps, and other penalties. Ohio State allows 133 yards/game and is #33 in the country in that category. They are #18 in yardage against/carry at 3.41. In their 4-3 defense, sophomore middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan leads the team with 105 tackles while strongside linebacker Josh Perry is second with 88. Junior defensive end Joey Bosa’s sack numbers are down this year, but he has still made 15 tackles for loss, good enough for #22 nationally. As a team, the Buckeyes are #40 in tackles for loss. The numbers aren’t great, but talent-wise, Ohio State’s front will be as good as or better than any other team Michigan has faced this year. The Wolverines will struggle, but they will likely attempt to get the ball in the hands of two-way player Jabrill Peppers (11 carries, 43 yards, 2 TDs) for a little spark.
Advantage: Ohio State
Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.
Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
Michigan has had three straight solid passing performances against Rutgers, Indiana, and Penn State. They are #60 with 228 yards/game through the air and #47 in passer rating. Quarterback Jake Rudock has completed 64.4% of his passes for 2,476 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He does a good job of spread the ball around, as three of his targets are in the top 20 in the conference in receptions: WR Amara Darboh (#7 with 52), TE Jake Butt (#14 with 43), and WR Jehu Chesson (#17 with 37). Chesson has been the big-play guy with the ability to get vertical, and both Darboh and Butt have shown very reliable hands. The offensive line is #34 nationally for giving up 16 sacks, including just 2 to Penn State last week, the top sacking unit in the country. Ohio State is #14 in sacks with 32, but the leading sack artist is a surprising name: DE Tyquan Lewis, who has 6.5 after notching just half a sack last year. Backup defensive end Sam Hubbard has 5.5, and DT Adolphis Washington is tied with Bosa for third with 4 sacks each. Ohio State is #5 in pass defense (164 yards allowed/game) and #7 in passer rating against them. Three players share the team lead in interceptions with 2 (S Vonn Bell, CB Gareon Conley, S Tyvis Powell), and OSU has returned 3 total interceptions for scores. Meanwhile, Bell has 9 pass breakups with corner Eli Apple knocking down 6. Defensive end Bosa has 4 of his own, not to mention 12 quarterback hurries; the sack numbers aren’t there, but he’s still finding a way to affect the passing game. Michigan did fine against Penn State last week, but Penn State’s secondary was lacking talent. That won’t be the case against the Buckeyes.
Advantage: Ohio State
Rush Defense vs. Ohio State Rush Offense
Michigan is #4 in giving up 100 yards/game on the ground, and after giving up a 56-yarder to begin the game last week, the Nittany Lions essentially got nothing in the run game. The Wolverines turned to more of a 4-3 or 4-2-5 look after they struggled to stop Indiana’s running game two weeks ago. Michigan is thin on the defensive line after losing its top two nose tackles and top weakside end to injury, so Indiana’s pace hurt them. Ohio State is faster than Penn State but slower than the Hoosiers. Michigan’s leading tacklers are the two inside linebackers, Joe Bolden (67) and Desmond Morgan (64). Defensive ends/tackles Chris Wormley and Willie Henry have racked up 12 and 10 tackles for loss, respectively, and end Taco Charlton has come on over the past three weeks to record 12 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, and 3 sacks. With so many injuries and some position changes, Michigan has to use minimal rotations and keep the best guys on the field as much as possible. Normally, I’m not a big time-of-possession guy, but in this case, Michigan needs to control the ball offensively so they can keep the defensive line fresh. Ohio State gains 230 yards/game with the run, which is #15 nationally; their 5.52 yards/carry is #10. Workhorse running back Ezekiel Elliott is/was a fringe Heisman candidate with 245 carries for 1,458 yards, a 6.3-yard average, and 17 touchdowns. Quarterback J.T. Barrett averages 6.1 yards/carry with 8 touchdowns, and H-back (a.k.a. slot receiver) Braxton Miller is third on the team with 227 yards. Backups don’t factor into the equation very often; though very capable, Curtis Samuel is the leading rusher of the backups, and he has just 16 attempts, or about 1.5 per game. Ohio State is #15 in Adjusted Line Yards and #37 in Power Success Rate. The only non-senior up front is redshirt sophomore left guard Billy Price. I think a full-strength Michigan front would do okay against the Buckeyes, but Michigan’s defensive line is going to get worn down unless Michigan can gain a significant time-of-possession edge; I don’t think that will happen.
Advantage: Ohio State
Pass Defense vs. Ohio State Pass Offense
Michigan is #4 in passing defense and allows just 163 yards/game in the air. They are #2 in passer rating against them. The Wolverines have only made 1 interception in the past five games (safety Jarrod Wilson’s against Rutgers), but they are #18 in passes broken up and have a potential All-American in cornerback Jourdan Lewis (2 interceptions, 19 pass breakups). Slot corner Jabrill Peppers has 10 pass breakups of his own, and part-time starter Jeremy Clark leads the team with 3 picks. Michigan is #23 in sacks with 29. Henry leads the team with 6.5 sacks, while Charlton and Womley have 5.5 each. The Wolverines play a lot of man coverage, and the big plays for opponents come against the linebackers or over the middle of the field. Ohio State is #100 in passing offense (194 yards/game) but #38 in passer rating. Quarterback J.T. Barrett did not win the starting job coming out of camp, but he has replaced Cardale Jones. He completes 64.4% of his passes (the same exact percentage as Rudock) on 6.6 yards/attempt, and he has 9 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions. Wide receiver Michael Thomas (6’3″, 210 lbs.) looks the part of a pro receiver and has pretty good speed, as well; he has pulled in 47 catches for 659 yards and 8 touchdowns. Slot receivers Jalin Marshall (29 catches, 417 yards, 4 TDs) and Braxton Miller (23 catches, 324 yards, 3 TDs) are the other two main threats. Ohio State has also allowed 16 sacks (#34 nationally), although they are #111 in passing attempts. Left tackle Taylor Decker is the best of the bunch up front, while right tackle Chase Farris is the weak point; this could be an advantageous spot for Michigan if they line up Wormley and Henry over Farris. Michigan will probably match up the 5’10” Lewis against the 6’3″ Thomas, even though the Wolverines have a couple big corners; Lewis always takes the opponent’s best receiver.
Advantage: Michigan
Roster Notes
- Ohio State players recruited by Michigan: DT Josh Alabi, CB Eli Apple, LB Jerome Baker, TE Marcus Baugh, LB Kyle Berger, LB Dante Booker, DE Joey Bosa, OG Matt Burrell, QB Joe Burrow, CB Cam Burrows, CB Gareon Conley, DE Jashon Cornell, OT Taylor Decker, RB Bri’onte Dunn, DT Joel Hale, DT Michael Hill, LB Justin Hilliard, S Malik Hooker, DE Sam Hubbard, QB Cardale Jones, DE Dre’monte Jones, OG Jamarco Jones, OG Demetrius Knox, CB Marshon Lattimore, OT Evan Lisle, RB Braxton Miller, OG Billy Price, OT Isaiah Prince, DT Tommy Schutt, S Erick Smith, OT Kyle Troue, TE Nick Vannett, DT Adolphus Washington, CB Damon Webb, RB Mike Weber, LB Cam Williams
- Ohio State CB Gareon Conley and RB Mike Weber were both committed to Michigan at one time
- Michigan OG Kyle Kalis was committed to Ohio State at one time
- Ohio State players from the state of Michigan: DT Josh Alabi, CB Damon Webb, RB Mike Weber
Last Time They Played . . .
- Both Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett (broken leg) and Michigan RB Drake Johnson (torn ACL) suffered season-ending injuries in the 2014 game
- Devin Gardner went 22/32 for 233 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception
- Johnson ran 15 times for 74 yards and 2 touchdowns before his injury
- Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 32 carries, 210 yards, and 4 touchdowns
- Ohio State 42, Michigan 28
Predictions
- Michigan gets dominated up front and can’t run the ball
- The Wolverines turn one of those quick screens into a screen-and-go
- Ezekiel Elliott wears out Michigan’s front seven
- Jake Rudock throws the ball 45 times
- Ohio State 28, Michigan 17
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I ain’t buyin’ it! Don’t disagree with your analysis, but if a Brady Hoke coached team can hang with them for an entire game, having no more talent on his roster than we do now…
1. Rivalry game, the statistical match up doesn’t always matter.
2. We won’t be out coached.
3. Motivation…. Going back to the Carr era, we have not had a motivator as a coach. There is aways passion going into this game, but Jimmy will have these young men motivated, more so than they’ve been in a L O N G time.
Michigan 27 the other team 24
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I hope you’re right.
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Unfortunately, you were spot on. The matchups played out like we thought they would on paper at the beginning of the season, Michigan was outcoached, and OSU was more motivated.
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Yup. God damn it. We need better talent across the board. We need to cut loose guys who just aren’t cutting it as well. I hope we wave bye to several players who just take up space and sign a gigantic class.
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I think that OSU looked at the UM vs Indiana game and said hmmmm we can do that same exact thing on offense and we have a much better defense. Harbaugh will do what he can but it won’t be nearly enough. OSU by at least 15. The only way we can win this game is if OSU is still lethargic from the MSU game, but since they still have something to play for, I don’t think that will be the case.
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People thought we would’ve been beaten by Penn State as well. I think what’s on paper goes out of the window on this one. We aren’t that good to be honest, but I think our guys will play out of their minds. And this is college football — morale is so important.
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I was one of those who thought that we would lose to PSU, but that was mainly because the game was on the road in a very hostile environment and we haven’t been a good road team for a long time. In this case though I think we’re up against a much more talented team that knows how to win big games, despite laying an egg against MSU. I am not sure why OSU has not been firing on all cylinders, whether it was Herman’s departure or players becoming complacent or the QB roulette… but that team has the potential to win big in the Big House, and with their season on the line, that is what I think will happen. Having said that I am still very delighted by our season and even more so about the future of the program.
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The same ohio state team that lost to sparty, sparty using two back up qb’s. We actually had sparty beat, with their starting qb…until, well you know..
We aren’t completely back, and I know we’re not nearly what we will be, but we have a solid football team.
a pick six was the difference in the Utah game, a special teams fluke was the difference in the msu game, we won the rest. Some ugly wins and some really good football, but gutted out, grinded out wins. urban liar is about to feel more uncomfortable than he ever has, in columbus, oh. i think he feels a migraine coming on.
GO BLUE
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Largely agree. If you look at the head-to-head match ups, OSU is better than us pretty much everywhere, and they have a better coach. The only way I see us winning is if we run the ball significantly better than they do, and I’m not sure how that’s going to happen. I think our D will keep things close enough to hope until the fourth quarter, but will eventually break down. We do not have the big play ability that they do, and that will be killer.
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Exactly as predicted. They have speed and big play ability, and it shortens the field for them and kills us.
And sorry, but TWO huge special teams screw ups already, and it’s only the first quarter?
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Unfortunately, this is the new reality. John Baxter’s special teams have not been as spectacular as we had hoped.
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