This is Zoe Pugh, who is supposedly a PSU student (image via 10worthy)
RUSH OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is averaging 198 yards/game on the ground, which is #52 in the country, and they’re doing it at 4.9 yards/carry, which is 49th. The Wolverines have also scored 9 rushing touchdowns, which is good enough to be tied for 19th. The team’s leading rusher is still backup Chris Evans, boosted by his 8-carry, 112-yard performance against Hawaii in the opener; he has added 19 carries for just 45 yards since. Starter De’Veon Smith had his best game of the year last week when he carried 11 times for 87 yards. Michigan ran 7 variations of jet sweeps last week, getting the ball to the likes of Jehu Chesson, Eddie McDoom, and Jabrill Peppers. It’s actually rather impressive that they have so many jet sweeps in their repertoire. The Nittany Lions are a little weak on the edge, and Michigan has struggled to create a push up front, so I imagine the Wolverines will continue to use the jet sweep this week; Chesson had a 20-yarder against PSU last year. Penn State is #92 against the run (176 yards allowed/game) and tied for #84 in yards allowed/carry (4.23). Those aren’t impressive stats, considering two of the first three opponents were Kent State and Temple (the other is Pitt, a pretty decent team). The two leading tacklers are safeties Marcus Allen (21) and Malik Golden (18), while the next two on the list are linebackers who are now injured. In fact, PSU runs a 4-3 defense but all three starting linebackers are hurt. Defensive tackle Parker Cothren and defensive end Torrence Brown are the leading active TFL guys with 3.0 each.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more of a preview of Penn State.
PASS OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE
The Wolverines average just over 254 yards/game through the air, which is tied for #47 in the country. They have the #22 passer rating in the country, led by 6’6″, 243 lb. redshirt sophomore Wilton Speight (63.8% completions, 8 TDs, 1 INT). Wide receiver Amara Darboh quietly leads the team in touchdowns (4) and has an impressive 20.4 yards/catch. Last year’s leading receiver, Jehu Chesson, has started relatively slowly in the passing game – much like last year – but still averages over 18 yards/catch. So far tight end Jake Butt averages 5 catches, 64 yards, and 1 touchdown per game. The offensive line and the QB have shown some weaknesses against blitzes, but their 5 sacks allowed have them tied for 48th in the nation. Penn State lost some talent on the defensive line, but they’re still tied for #15 in sacks with 10 so far this year. That group is led by defensive end Shareef Miller (2.0), though both those sacks came against Kent State; in fact, 7 of the 10 sacks came against Kent State and the other 3 came against Temple. The biggest threat is defensive end Garrett Sickels. On the back end, the inexperienced linebackers provide some openings and might be overmatched by Butt working across the middle, while safety Golden is the best pass defender with 1 interception and 2 pass breakups. Penn State allows just under 169 yards/game through the air, which is #22 in the country, but the passer rating against them is a mediocre #61. Against the one solid team on their schedule so far, Pitt QB Nathan Peterman completed 11/15 passes for 91 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 pick. Speight looked uncomfortable against Colorado after looking really solid against Hawaii and Central Florida, and I expect this performance to be somewhere in between.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is a disappointing 57th against the run (after being #16 in 2015) and #54 in yards allowed/carry (3.62). A big chunk of that yardage came on an 87-yarder allowed against UCF and a few 30-ish-yard scrambles. The rush defense isn’t as bad as the numbers look, but the numbers are what they are. Michigan’s top three tacklers are SAM Jabrill Peppers (28), MIKE Ben Gedeon (25), and WILL Mike McCray II (19), and Peppers leads the nation in tackles for loss with 9.5. The defensive line should get a boost from the return of Taco Charlton, who has missed all but a chunk of the opener with an ankle injury, but freshman Rashan Gary probably earned himself some more playing time with how he performed against Colorado. Penn State’s offensive line is pretty bad, helping them rank #113 in rushing yardage (112 yards/game) and #114 in yards/carry (3.16). It’s ugly, even though running back Saquon Barkley (258 yards, 5.1 yards/carry, 6 TDs) is one of the best in the country and probably the best runner in the conference. If he gets loose, he’s tough to corral, so it will be important for Michigan’s defensive line and linebackers to dominate at the line of scrimmage. Pitt has the #10 rushing defense in the country, but Barkley had 20 carries for 85 yards and 4 touchdowns against them. That yardage total isn’t overwhelming, but considering the context, it’s pretty impressive. (For a reference point, Barkley had 15 carries for 68 yards, for 4.53 yards/carry, against Michigan in 2015.) I don’t think Michigan will completely shut down Barkley, but they should be strong enough up front to prevent him from being the difference between a win and a loss.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. PENN STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #16 in passing defense, allowing just 156 yards/game through the air. Those numbers are aided by playing a couple poor passing teams, not to mention knocking the last two starting quarterbacks out of the game. Linebacker Mike McCray actually leads the team with 3 pass breakups, with Jeremy Clark following behind with 2. The best news in that department comes in the fact that All-American corner Jourdan Lewis may return from injury after missing the first few games. He set a school record for pass breakups in 2015. That may alleviate some of the issues from last week, when Colorado QB Sefo Liufau torched Michigan’s secondary at times. McCray, Peppers, and Gedeon lead the team in sacks with 2.5, 2.0, and 2.0, respectively, so that’s an indication of how much defensive coordinator Don Brown likes to blitz. Michigan is #10 in sacks overall. The Nittany Lions have only allowed 5 sacks, which is tied with Michigan for #48 nationally, but they haven’t faced a defensive with quite as much athleticism as Michigan’s front seven. The Wolverines should be able to win that battle, making some PSU linemen look silly in the process. Penn State is #31 nationally with 276 yards/game passing and #41 in passer rating. Sophomore QB Trace McSorley is completing 64.4% of his passes for 828 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. Chris Godwin (18 catches, 220 yards) and DaeSean Hamilton (12 catches, 141 yards) lead the team in receptions, but DeAndre Thompkins (5’11”, 190 lbs.) is the X-factor as he averages almost 24 yards/catch. They also have an athletic tight end in Mike Gesicki, who looks a bit like Zach Gentry – tall, lanky, good speed, not a great blocker. The return of Lewis could be great for Michigan if he’s full speed, because then Michigan can match up with three corners on the field, instead of leaving safeties covering slot receivers like Thompkins.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Players recruited by Michigan include: S Marcus Allen, OL Ryan Bates, WR Saeed Blacknall, OT Will Fries, OT Sterling Jenkins, WR Juwan Johnson, DE Daniel Joseph, OL Brendan Mahon, OG Michael Menet, CB John Reid, RB Miles Sanders, DE Garrett Sickels, CB Garrett Taylor
- CB Garrett Taylor was committed to Michigan at one point
- Michigan CB Lavert Hill, K Quinn Nordin, and LB Jared Wangler were committed to Penn State at one point
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- Michigan outgained PSU, 343-207
- Jake Rudock went 25/38 for 256 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT
- Jake Butt, Jehu Chesson, and Amara Darboh each went for at least 4 receptions and 66 yards
- Taco Charlton had 4 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks
- Michigan 28, Penn State 16
PREDICTIONS
- Michigan has the advantage in each category, but it’s not as pronounced as some think
- The Wolverines sack Trace McSorley 4 times
- Jake Butt gains 100 yards receiving with 2 touchdowns
- Jabrill Peppers scores an offensive touchdown
- Michigan 38, Penn State 24
You need to login in order to vote
Based on the write-up, I’m surprised you predicted 24 points for Penn State. I would think a score of 38-14 is more in line with the advantages outlined. But we’ll see …
You need to login in order to vote
I’ve seen chunks of each game, and PennSt looks bad. I can see 42-7 (a couple of broken plays). I get that PennSt has a few good players, but they also struggle on the road, and are led by a guy who was outcoached by Hoke, just after losing to the mighty Scarlet Knights
You need to login in order to vote
The predicted score is not necessarily hinting at PSU being a formidable opponent, but rather at Michigan not being an elite level team. I think we win by 2 scores but it will be a fight because our OL simply cannot dominate anyone with a pulse and our defense has several massive busts a game.
You need to login in order to vote
I don’t necessarily believe we are “elite/playoff,” but PennSt will lose 5, maybe 6 games this year. They run spread/tempo, but aren’t fast-paced or very efficient. Their DL isn’t tradition PennSt level, and have no starting LBs…
That said, my prediction is more an indictment on the Nittany Lions than anything else
You need to login in order to vote
If Lewis comes back and is in shape, I think the only way they hurt Michigan is with QB runs and throws to TE. Barkley will break a few big runs and but will spend the rest of the day getting swarmed by our Dline at the LOS. On offense we will continue to struggle running conventionally, but Harbaugh will manufacture a running game and eventually we will grind them down. I think this week Harbaugh will ask Speight to do less and Peppers to do on offense. On the scoreboard this one should be similar to last year’s game.
You need to login in order to vote
>> “but rather at Michigan not being an elite level team”
I think that’s a fair assessment. Even if we assume all the starters are healthy, Michigan is a very good team, but not in the “top two or three in college football discussion.”
That’s not to say Michigan can’t beat Ohio State or Alabama on a given Saturday. But it would take all the stars lining up — Michigan plays a near-perfect game and the opponent making some mistakes.
Several years ago I expressed the hope that Michigan would improve to the point of AT LEAST (and of course, the hope is for more) beat teams we should and play competitively with those who are better teams. I think we’re definitely at that level now.
The Wisconsin-MSU game this weekend will be an interesting gauge as to who our “first true test” will be. If Wisconsin beats MSU, then next week’s UM-Wisconsin game will be it.
You need to login in order to vote
MSU being undefeated would help our prestige with pollsters and committees down the line. However, a Wisconsin win might take the east lansing crowd down a notch. I don’t think I’ll be able to resist rooting for Wisconsin.
You need to login in order to vote
IIRC, Lavert Hill and Quinn Nordin were also committed to Penn State at one point.
You need to login in order to vote
I’m more worried than this preview. Maybe I’m just stubbornly sticking to an antiquated perception of PSU, but I see Barkley and I see a mistake-laden D and I worry. Sounds like they are beatup at LB and not up to their usual standards but PSU defenses have been very tough over the last few years, even as other areas have fallen apart. With our OL and QB struggling I wonder how much we’ll have to rely on Harbaugh’s creative playcalling this week. Hopefully not much.
That all said, I expect to win at home. I could see a breakout game from this OL and Smith and/or Evans.
Go Blue.
You need to login in order to vote
So are we all feeling pretty confident that PSU is worse than Colorado?
You need to login in order to vote
I think that PSU is better than Colorado, but stylistically Colorado is a tougher matchup. I also think that Michigan will be a little more motivated against PSU than they were against Colorado.
You need to login in order to vote
“The return of Lewis could be great for Michigan if he’s full speed, because then Michigan can match up with three corners on the field, instead of leaving safeties covering slot receivers like Thompkins.”
Question….does this mean that it’s possible the coaching staff felt that D. Hill and D.Thomas were better coverage options than any of our other CBs after Stribbling and Clark?
You need to login in order to vote
Man coverage is just part of the deal. You also need to know the checks, you have to support the run, etc. Dymonte Thomas lost on a fade route in the red zone. Even if the coaches trust Lavert Hill or Keith Washington more in coverage, you don’t necessarily want those guys trying to tackle if Colorado decides to run the ball.
You need to login in order to vote