Preview: Michigan vs. Rutgers

Preview: Michigan vs. Rutgers


November 6, 2015


Rush Offense vs. Rutgers Rush Defense

Michigan is middle-of-the-pack at #64 with 175 yards/game on the ground, and their yards per carry is #64 also (4.37 average). It is a consistent struggle to get yards on the ground. Starting tailback De’Veon Smith (405 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 4 TD) has been hobbled with an ankle sprain for several weeks. Backup Drake Johnson (183 yards, 5.1 yards/carry, 2 TD) is rounding into form after tearing his ACL last year, and it would be nice to see him supplant Smith as the primary ball carrier. Regardless, Michigan is over halfway through the regular season, and the rushing totals are fairly meager. Redshirt sophomore Ty Isaac (205 yards, 6.8 yards/carry, 1 TD) has looked promising at times, but he was held out of last week’s game due to an “internal matter.” Rutgers is #55 in rush defense (156 yards allowed/game), but their 4.65 yards against/carry is #90 nationally. Redshirt junior middle linebacker Steve Longa leads the team with 91 tackles, followed by fifth year senior SAM Quentin Gause with 71. Gause leads the team with 9 tackles for loss, while Longa and defensive end Quanzell Lambert each have 4 this year; the team is #74 nationally in TFLs. I haven’t really seen a reason to believe that Michigan can run against a decent rush defense.
Advantage: Rutgers

Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.

Pass Offense vs. Rutgers Pass Defense
Michigan should have the services of starting quarterback Jake Rudock, who was knocked out of last week’s game after Minnesota targeted hit him really hard. Rudock has struggled significantly this year, but he’s the best the program has to offer right now. The Wolverines are #105 in passing offense (184 yards/game) and #93 in passer rating. Rudock was replaced by redshirt freshman Wilton Speight, who struggled this year before his last few throws of the Minnesota game, when he went 3/3 for 29 yards and the game-winning touchdown down the stretch. Michigan has struggled to create big plays in the passing game this year, and the top four receivers all average 11-12 yards/catch. They have struggled because of poor quarterback play, but they don’t have the best skill, either. Jehu Chesson had 3 catches for 33 yards and his first 2 touchdowns of the year last week, and he’s the closest thing to a deep threat the Wolverines have, even though Rudock can’t hit him downfield. The Wolverines have given up 13 sacks this year, which is 39th in the country. Rutgers has really struggled to get to the QB this year (#107 in sacks), and their leading sacker is backup defensive end Kemoko Turay with just 2 takedowns. They are #41 in passes defended and #48 in interceptions, which are pretty good numbers for a secondary when the front seven can’t get pressure. Safety Anthony Cioffi leads the team with 3 interceptions, cornerback Isaiah Wharton has 6 pass breakups, and safety Kiy Hester has 1 pick returned for a score. With a banged-up Rudock, I can’t convince myself to think of this phase as a huge advantage for Michigan, even though Rutgers is #120 in pass defense . . . but Rudock (or Speight) should have some time to find an open guy here or there.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Rutgers Rush Offense
Michigan is #2 in rush defense and gives up just 75 yards/game, and their 2.42 yards allowed/carry is also #2. Minnesota was the worst game of the year when the Gophers ran 35 times for 144 yards (4.1 yards/carry). The Wolverines had some issues last week with linebacker James Ross moving to Buck linebacker; he held up okay when he knew what to do, but the position switch had him confused a bit at times. Michigan was also without a solid backup in defensive tackle Matt Godin. Inside linebackers Joe Bolden and Desmond Morgan are tied for the team lead in tackle with 49. Michigan is tied at #33 in tackles for loss based mostly on the strength of the defensive line, which is led by nose tackle Ryan Glasgow, defensive tackle Chris Wormley, and defensive end Willie Henry. Redshirt sophomore Maurice Hurst, Jr. has also taken a large step forward over the past few weeks. Rutgers is #68 in rush offense with 173 yards/game, and their 4.42 yards/carry is tied for 60th. Those numbers are dragged down by sacks, though, because the Scarlet Knights have three backs with 60+ carries who are each averaging over 5.1 yards/carry. Rutgers seems to go with the hot hand at running back, and that mostly seems to be Josh Hicks (511 yards, 5.2 yards/carry, 4 TD), who is a bowling ball without a ton of speed. The other two options are Robert Martin (501 yards, 5.8 yards/carry, 4 TD), and Paul James (357 yards, 5.6 yards/carry, 1 TD). They are tough runners who are unlikely to break the big one. The Scarlet Knights’ offensive line is #11 in Adjusted Line Yards and features one fifth year senior, three redshirt juniors, and a redshirt sophomore. Left tackle Keith Lumpkins is a mammoth at 6’7″, 325 lbs. It won’t be an easy task for Michigan, but I think they’ll fare pretty well against a team that tries to play smashmouth football.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Defense vs. Rutgers Pass Offense
Michigan has the #9 passing defense (167 yards allowed/game) even after getting burned for 328 and 317 yards by Michigan State and Minnesota in the past two weeks. Even so, Michigan’s defensive passer rating is #2 in the country. Michigan is tied for 63rd with 7 interceptions on the year and tied for #9 in passes defended with 39. The top corner is Jourdan Lewis (29 tackles, 2 interceptions, 15 pass breakups), but the other corner position has been a bit of a competition between Jeremy Clark and Channing Stribling, both of whom have had their struggles over the past couple weeks. Safety Jarrod Wilson is solid in coverage, and nickel corner Jabrill Peppers has improved in that area, but safety Delano Hill and the linebackers have allowed some big plays recently. Michigan is #35 in sacks with 20, and they are led by Willie Henry (6) and ascending nose tackle Hurst, who has 3. An edge rush is essentially non-existent, but Michigan will send an array of blitzes on passing downs. Rutgers is #72 in passing offense with 221 yards/game, and they are a respectable #41 in passer rating. Starter Chris Laviano completes 64.5% of his passes and has 12 touchdowns with 8 interceptions this year. He averages 7.7 yards/attempt, and the Scarlet Knights have two regulars at wideout who are averaging over 20 yards/catch. One is star Leonte Carroo, who has had a suspension and an injury this year, which have limited him to five games; it’s unclear whether he will play on Saturday or not. The other big-play guy is 6’6″, 220 lb. Carlton Agudosi, and #2 wideout Andre Patton has good size at 6’4″, 200 lbs. It should be a fair matchup on the outside, where Lewis will shadow Carroo while the two bigger corners can deal with the big receivers. Slot receiver Janarion Grant is a speedster and could be a bit of a test for Peppers in coverage, and 6’6″, 240 lb. tight end Matt Flanagan could present some problems in the red zone. After a season-high 386 passing yards against Indiana, Rutgers has dropped to 189 and then 82 passing yards against Ohio State and Wisconsin in the past couple weeks. This becomes a much more pedestrian unit without Carroo.
Advantage: Michigan

Roster Notes

  • Rutgers players recruited by Michigan: WR Leonte Carroo, OT J.J. Denman, DT Darius Hamilton, S Kiy Hester, OG Chris Muller
  • Player from the state of Michigan: QB Giovanni Rescigno (Warren De La Salle)
  • DT Julian Pinnix-Odrick is the half-brother of former Penn State, Miami Dolphins, and Jacksonville Jaguars DT Jared Odrick

Last Time They Played . . .

  • Michigan made Rutgers QB Gary Nova look like a superstar with 404 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions
  • The great Andrew Turzilli had 2 catches for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • Running back Derrick Green broke his collarbone and missed the rest of the year
  • Rutgers 26, Michigan 24

Predictions

  • If Carroo doesn’t play, Michigan’s defense chews up Rutgers
  • If Carroo does play, the game gets interesting
  • Jake Butt gets touchdown #2 on the season
  • Jabrill Peppers gets his first interception
  • Drake Johnson runs for 80 yards and 1 touchdown
  • Michigan 31, Rutgers 14

3 comments

  1. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Nov 06, 2015 at 2:12 PM

    Harbaugh doesn’t know what he is doing, so Hackett is going to assert some control over the football program. Michigan finally takes the shackles off of Ty Isaac and Shane Speight hits long pass after long pass to Damario Jones and Mo Ways.

    Michigan 123 – Rutgers 6.

    • Comments: 522
      Joined: 8/12/2015
      DonAZ
      Nov 06, 2015 at 7:21 PM

      LOL … spot on. Oh, and fire Durkin for allowing 6!

      I think Michigan wins, but how they play and what the final results will be I have no idea.

      • Comments: 183
        Joined: 9/3/2015
        suduri xusai
        Nov 07, 2015 at 12:24 AM

        Yeah. There were many blown assignments and missed tackles in the secondary vs. Minnesota. I just have no idea how the Michigan secondary would fare against Carroo and other Rutgers WRs. It’s hard to tell how M secondary will be prepared.

        NJ is really important for Michigan’s recruiting now. Maybe even more so than Ohio — it’s in our best interest to keep Rutgers being Rutgers and smash them every year.

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