Rush Offense vs. UNLV Rush Defense
After a solid performance against Oregon State, Michigan is still only #87 nationally with 151 yards/game on the ground. Meanwhile, the 3.91 yards/carry ranks them #90 in the country. Bruising running back De’Veon Smith leads the team in rushing and has received more than 50% of the carries, and backup Ty Isaac has averaged 4.7 yards/carry so far. The Wolverines have stayed healthy on the offensive line so far, and Michigan’s line may have reinforced its confidence with last week’s dominant effort. On the other side, UNLV is #115 in rushing defense (229 yards allowed/game) and tied for #111 in yards allowed/carry (5.15). Those numbers have come against Northern Illinois and UCLA. The Rebels have pretty good size on the interior with 330 and 310 lb. starting defensive tackles, but they are a little light at weakside end (Mark Finau is 6’3″, 230 lbs.) and strongside linebacker (Matt Lea is 5’10”, 215 lbs.). The leading tackler is strong safety Peni Vea, and weakside linebacker Tau Lotulelei leads his unit with 2.5 tackles for loss. With Michigan’s emphasis on the running game and a running back who can run through his fair share of tackles, it would be very disappointing if the Wolverines don’t win this matchup.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for the remainder of the preview.
Pass Offense vs. UNLV Pass Defense
Michigan and new quarterback Jake Rudock haven’t lit the world on fire through the air, and the team is #92 in passer rating. Rudock is completing 65% of his passes, but he has thrown 4 interceptions, compared to just 2 touchdowns so far. Wide receiver Amara Darboh and tight end Jake Butt share the team lead with 12 receptions each, but no gamebreakers have shown themselves yet. Jehu Chesson has beaten the defense deep a couple times, but he has just 4 receptions for 36 yards to show for it because Rudock missed him deep. Michigan’s offensive line has allowed just 1 sack this season, partly because of good protection schemes and partly because Rudock can go through his reads and check the ball down. UNLV is slightly better at stopping the pass than the run after allowing 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, but they are also allowing 8.0 yards/attempt (#103 nationally). They are tied for #18 in the country with those 3 interceptions. UNLV blitzed UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen quite a bit, but it’s probably not such a good idea to blitz a fifth year senior in Rudock, so I expect them to be a little more conservative and try to keep things in front of them. Either way, Michigan should be able to hold up against their pass rush and make some plays on the edges.
Advantage: Michigan
Rush Defense vs. UNLV Rush Offense
Against two teams who should be pretty decent at running the ball, Michigan is #24 in yards allowed (93 per game) and #21 in rushing average against (2.66 yards/carry). Defensive tackle Chris Wormley has been excellent so far this season and has made 6 tackles for loss already, and the Wolverines as a team are tied for 21st with 17 tackles for loss. Generally, Michigan has swarmed to the football, and they tackled very well last week against Oregon State. The Rebels haven’t run the ball too badly this year, as starting running back Keith Whitely (5’9″, 195 lbs.) is tough to bring down and averages 4.3 yards/carry. Backup quarterback Kurt Palandech has averaged 5.62 yards/carry and has the team’s lone touchdown on the ground, while backup tailback Xzaviar Campbell (5’11”, 220 lbs.) is averaging 6.89 yards a pop. Those are pretty decent numbers for an offensive line that is very undersized; no offensive linemen are over 300 lbs., and left tackle Kyle Saxelid is 6’7″, 270 lbs. Unless Michigan takes a mental holiday, the Wolverines should control the line of scrimmage.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Defense vs. UNLV Pass Offense
Michigan is #47 in passer rating against, but neither opponent so far has been very tough through the air. I do not expect top cornerback Jourdan Lewis to play this week after he suffered a concussion against Oregon State, so Michigan will have to make do with Channing Stribling and Jeremy Clark as their likely starting corners. The linebackers aren’t great in coverage, and the defensive line lacks a standout edge rusher, so the pass defense has some holes. UNLV is #91 in passing yardage (193 yards/game) and #119 in passer rating. The team will probably be missing its starting quarterback in Blake Decker, so things will be left to Palandech (5/16, 14 yards, 1 interception); if anything happens to him, the next guy is probably redshirt freshman Kevin Thomson. The situation reminds me of last year’s Indiana game, when Zander Diamont was forced into action and the Hoosiers had only the hope of running back Tevin Coleman saving them . . . except UNLV doesn’t have Tevin Coleman. The best bet for the Rebels is to luck out by getting a few passes to wide receiver Devonte Boyd (6’1″, 175 lbs.), the only consistent big-play threat. Jourdan Lewis’s absence might make that strategy a little easier, but it probably won’t be enough to overcome the quarterback situation and the overmatched offensive line.
Advantage: Michigan
Roster Notes
- Defensive line coach Joe Seumalo is the father of offensive lineman Isaac Seumalo, who played at Michigan Stadium last week for the Oregon State Beavers
- There are no Michigan natives on UNLV’s roster. In fact, the only two American players from east of the Mississippi are quarterback Kurt Palandech (Illinois) and wide receiver Stephen Sweeney (New Jersey)
- Michigan offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Tim Drevno coached UNLV’s running backs during the 1998 season
Last Time They Played . . .
- They haven’t.
Predictions
- Michigan takes another opportunity to establish the running game; Smith and Isaac go over 100 yards
- Chris Wormley makes 2 sacks
- Michigan scores a special teams touchdown
- Michigan 48, UNLV 6
You need to login in order to vote
I don’t get BTN, and the live-streaming from the eastern-European websites is a bit spotty … so this game I’ll listen to on Sirius while out for a motorcycle ride. 🙂
I like your 48-6 prediction, but it would not surprise me if Michigan’s point production was a tad less. I think the “establish the running game” meme is correct … these games are extended practices for Michigan to improve certain areas of the game.
What I’ll be interested to see is whether Michigan can finally find a deep play that works … other than “ball perfectly thrown and Chesson doesn’t need to alter a single step” I mean.
You need to login in order to vote
I get BTN simply so I can watch Michigan games. The rest of the programming, I don’t really care for. It’s quite a rip-off.
You need to login in order to vote
I’d suggest finding a good sports bar and heading there for the 4 or so games on BTN. I’ve been doing this for years even though on the west coast it can be hard to find a good spot open at 9am. Free food or free football, however you want to look at it.
Nice preview. I look forward to telling you you’re overreacting to whatever happens against the backup defense.
Yeah but against 2nd stringers who don’t care.
You sure?
Yeah but he can’t pass block worth a damn and doesn’t get tough yards.
I will defend anyone named Smith to the death!!!
…
Can’t wait!
…for BYU. Like Don, I’m going to pass on this game to get outside. Just not much you can glean from a glorified exhibition game like this. I do hope Stribling gets 4 INTs.
You need to login in order to vote
ha, it appear half of my fake dialogue disappeared. Here’s what it was supposed to say:
T: Issac showed that second gear that Smith lacks.
L: Yeah but against 2nd stringers who don’t care.
T: I know good RBs when I see em.
L:You sure?
T: Isaac moves well with the football and shows good burst.
L: Yeah but he can’t pass block worth a damn and doesn’t get tough yards.
T: Everyone name Smith should go to the bench in favor of everyone named Isaac or Shaw.
L: I will defend anyone named Smith to the death!!!
You need to login in order to vote
You put on this gruff persona online, but I’ll bet you’re really just a big ole’ soft teddy bear, right? 🙂
You need to login in order to vote
Gruff persona eh…
You need to login in order to vote
Even if Michigan can throw a deep ball…how much will doing it against UNLV say about their prospects for doing it against real opponents?
I get that you have to walk before you run, but success here won’t necessarily translate.
The best thing about this game is that hopefully some backups along the OL get an opportunity to play some football and maybe some of the younger kids who will be needed next year on defense (at LB and Buck) will learn a few things. For the starters – the most interesting thing to me will be if Stribling and Clark can lock down their guys, though again it won’t mean much necessarily for future weeks, it’d be a nice place to start.
I hope Ruddock attempts less than a dozen passes and keeps his jersey clean.
You need to login in order to vote
Striking deep against UNLV doesn’t mean much … other than it can be done in “real” game conditions. I have to believe they’ve hit these Rudock-Chesson patterns in practice, otherwise they wouldn’t be attempting in games. Still, it would be nice to see one actually connect for a TD.
Benefits of this game (as you say) — play time for backups; more reps to iron out technique issues; etc. It may also give the coaches a chance to try a few things without tipping their hand too much for bigger games in the future.
So as I’m motoring around the back roads of southern Arizona on Saturday, listening to the game on Sirius 81, I’ll do so for just for the joy of listening to a game on the radio. I’m not that much a fan of Jim Brandstatter, but he’s getting a bit better as the games he calls add up. I like Dan Dierdorf doing color commentary.
You need to login in order to vote
Just like anything against weaker opponents, it’s about gaining confidence. Yeah, it might happen in practice, but I think there’s always a bit of doubt until you can do it in a game. If Rudock can hit Chesson on a go route against UNLV, maybe he can do it next week against BYU or some other time down the road. If they keep missing, you never know if that might affect them down the road.
For example, last week I wondered if Rudock’s underthrown ball to Chesson might have been a result of throwing it too far the first couple weeks. They still seem to be working on that chemistry.
You need to login in order to vote
While I don’t think confidence is the biggest issue with these players, I do agree it helps to have “been there before” against a live opponent.
You need to login in order to vote
I think confidence is a big issue. Not “confidence” in the sense that they don’t believe in their athletic talent, but confidence in each other, that the plays work, etc. Jehu Chesson has never caught a deep ball in college, to the best of my recollection. That’s an issue. Rudock threw over the top to Chesson and he couldn’t go get it, so then Rudock threw to his back shoulder, and Chesson didn’t adjust to come back to it. They both have to believe in each other.
You need to login in order to vote
We shouldn’t have much trouble winning, but doubt if we run up 48. With no big play capability, and a defense that rarely gets takeaways, we’re not likely to get out of the 30’s against anybody. It just takes us too long to score.
You need to login in order to vote
Half of me agrees with this but the other half things we can probably get takeaways and big plays against an awful opponent.
The inept 2014 offense still rang up 50 plus on App State and the year before we had 60 on Indiana.
I think it depends on how early they go to Speight.
You need to login in order to vote
Let’s assume Speight makes it in … do we see him merely doing a bunch of hand-offs to running backs? Or do we see the coaches trying to exercise his passing a bit?
You need to login in order to vote
Depends how early he comes in. If it’s just for a couple 4Q drives, probably just handing off. If he’s out for a half, he’ll run the offense I think.
You need to login in order to vote
As noted, 48 points is far beyond this team’s capability, even against a weak opponent. Our passing game is very shaky, and we still have far too many indifferent running plays, and very little imagination or unpredictability in play calling.
You need to login in order to vote
I don’t think that’s necessarily true. We scored 52 points against Appalachian State last season when the OL was worse. Granted, Devin Funchess was a big part of that game, but other areas have improved (special teams, the running game, etc.). Did we score 48 points? No. But I think this team is capable. They just didn’t do it.
You need to login in order to vote
We might not get too many takeaways, but UNLV might just give us the ball a few times. Also, I think we might be able to hit some big plays, even if it’s just finally hitting Chesson on a deep ball or breaking a big play on a screen pass.
You need to login in order to vote
I watched Akingbulu again last night. I keep thinking he is about the perfect Harbaugh recruit.
You need to login in order to vote
Oopsie, wrong page
You need to login in order to vote