Tag: Denard Robinson

2010 Season Predictions

Starting quarterback: Denard Robinson will start the season opener against UConn on Saturday. However, I think his lack of passing ability (although improved) will give Tate Forcier a chance to take the majority of the snaps by the end of the season.

Leading rusher: Denard Robinson. Even if he’s not the starting quarterback for the entire season, he should get enough carries – and enough big plays – to be Michigan’s leading rusher. The team also lacks a clear #1 running back, which means handoffs will be shared amongst Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, Michael Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stephen Hopkins. My guess is Robinson will end up with around 800 yards rushing.

Leading receiver: Roy Roundtree. The quarterbacks like to target the slot receivers, and Roundtree caught 30 balls over the last four games last season. The guess here is that Roundtree gets 60 catches and 900 yards this season.

Leading tackler: Last year’s leading tackler was Steve Brown, who played something similar to the Spur position. That will be manned by freshman Carvin Johnson, who will almost surely suffer from brain farts or injury this year and therefore disqualify himself. The second-leading tackler was Jordan Kovacs, who will probably lose some time to freshman Marvin Robinson. The third leading tackler was middle linebacker Obi Ezeh, who seems to have lost his job to a converted fullback. So I’m going with last year’s fourth-leading tackler: Jonas Mouton.

Leading sacker: Redshirt junior defensive end Ryan Van Bergen will edge out sophomore linebacker Craig Roh by the slightest of margins, 7.5 to 7.

Leading interceptor: I don’t expect Michigan to grab a lot of picks this year. The Wolverines will probably have a few guys pick off two passes each, and those will be J.T. Floyd, Jordan Kovacs, and Jonas Mouton. But because I don’t want to be wishy-washy like Michael Wilbon, I’ll pick Floyd.

All Big Ten 1st team: Center David Molk. Kick returner Darryl Stonum.

Leading scorer (non-QB, non-kicker): Roy Roundtree.

Breakout offensive player: I don’t see anyone having a monstrous season, and Roy Roundtree was probably 2009’s breakout player, or else I would pick him. So I’ll go with Denard Robinson, who will hopefully be able to pass the ball well enough to qualify in this category.

Breakout defensive player: Ugh, this defense looks bad. I guess I’ll go with Ryan Van Bergen. He won’t be a superstar and he won’t approximate Brandon Graham, but he should be able to get a consistent pass rush.

Most disappointing offensive player: Despite being listed as a co-starter, I think Vincent Smith will be somewhat of a disappointment this year. A lot of people thought he was the heir apparent last year when he seemed to be the primary backup for the senior running backs, but I think he’s just mediocre. He might be consistent, but spectacular plays are outside his reach, in my opinion.

Most disappointing defensive player: Cameron Gordon can’t possibly live up to all the offseason hype, although I hope he can. He’s still going to be raw, and I think he’ll make some frustrating plays. This is a hard category to pick, because not much is expected from anyone on defense, really.

The Big Finish
Sept. 4 vs. Connecticut: WIN. Connecticut is a little banged up, and they will be able to run the ball. But Rodriguez was undefeated against UConn in the Big East, and most of those games were blowouts. He knows how to defeat a Randy Edsall-coached team.

Sept. 11 at Notre Dame: LOSS. Dayne Crist and Michael Floyd will dispatch an overmatched secondary in a shootout.

Sept. 18 vs. UMass: WIN. Something approximating the 63-6 trouncing of Delaware State last year is likely.

Sept. 25 vs. Bowling Green: WIN. Michigan’s high-powered offense and superior athletes should be able to roll past BGSU, and the Falcons lost some significant firepower from last season.

Oct. 2 @ Indiana: LOSS. Remember when I said that Troy Woolfolk’s injury would cost Michigan a game at some point? It’s this one right here.

Oct. 9 vs. Michigan State: LOSS. I’d like to pick a win here, but Michigan isn’t good enough to start 5-1, and Kirk Cousins should be able to throw the ball all over the field.

Oct. 16 vs. Iowa: WIN. Michigan barely lost at Iowa last season, and the Wolverines match up with the Hawkeyes better this year. Iowa has a stout defense, but Michigan’s offense has improved.

Oct. 30 @ Penn State: WIN. Penn State’s quarterback position is in flux, the offensive line is weakened, and the defense suffered from some big losses. They’ll get a bunch of rushing yards, but Michigan should be able to pull it out in the end.

Nov. 6 vs. Illinois: WIN. Illinois sucks. They’ll be able to run the ball, but they won’t score enough.

Nov. 13 @ Purdue: WIN. Purdue has a solid defense and they’ve beaten Michigan a couple years in a row . . . I just can’t imagine the Boilermakers running the streak to three.

Nov. 20 vs. Wisconsin: LOSS. Wisconsin looks good this year. Even though I think they’ll fall short of many people’s expectations, they’re probably better than the Wolverines.

Nov. 27 @ Ohio State: LOSS. Ugh.

Final record: 7-5.

2010 Countdown: #5 Denard Robinson

Name: Denard Robinson
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 193 lbs.
High school: Deerfield Beach High School in Deerfield Beach, FL
Position: Quarterback
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #16
Last year: I ranked Robinson #31. He finished the season with 188 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions on 14/31 passes. He also had 69 carries for 351 yards and 5 touchdowns.

I wasn’t sold on Denard Robinson as a quarterback going into 2009. He was bound to be an integral part of Michigan’s offense, but he was raw as a signal caller. Coming from a high school that ran a Wing-T offense, I doubted he’d be ready to run a shotgun spread. His first play against Western Michigan was thrilling, but I guess after that, things could only go down. Robinson proceeded to be an evasive and exciting runner while also being a frustratingly poor passer. He excelled against an FCS patsy in Delaware State (3/4, 85 yards, 2 TDs), but was only 11/27 for 103 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions against teams with a pulse.

Part of the problem with Robinson’s performance in 2009 was the fact that Rich Rodriguez inserted him somewhat randomly throughout the season. Rather than playing him situationally or giving him a quarter here or there, Rodriguez whimsically inserted him whenever the breeze blew juuuuuuuuuust right. I don’t think anyone on the team was able to get in a rhythm, and that showed at times. It’s a testament to Robinson’s running ability that he was able to average over 5 yards per carry when it was clear that virtually every snap Robinson took would be a run.

In my opinion, the battle for the quarterback job in 2010 will come down to this: Which quarterback can run the zone read option most effectively? The zone read option has traditionally been the staple of Rodriguez’s offense, and he hasn’t had a quarterback run it consistently since Pat White did in 2007. Robinson was so ineffective at running the play that it was seemingly removed from the playbook when he was in the game. Tate Forcier seemed to make the wrong read two-thirds of the time. White averaged up to 8.0 yards per carry, and if Robinson can read the backside defensive end properly, there’s no reason that he can’t get at least six yards a pop.

I still think that Robinson will be extremely raw in 2010. There are reports that he has been tearing up Michigan’s defense in spring and fall practices, but keep in mind that it’s Michigan’s defense. We know that Robinson can run the ball, but can he make the right reads? Can he pick apart a defense that runs something other than a base Cover 3? I have my doubts. When nearly 15% of one’s passes against FBS opponents are caught by people wearing the wrong colored jerseys, faith disappears quickly. (Comparatively, a 15% interception rate for Tate Forcier would have resulted in approximately 42 interceptions!) Robinson will still be very important in 2010, but Michigan’s offense can succeed without him. Forcier’s range of talents makes #5 the most important quarterback on the team, no matter which quarterback starts on September 4th.

Prediction for 2010: Part-time starting quarterback; 900 yards passing, 8 touchdowns; 800 yards rushing, 10 touchdowns

I’m one of the few who doesn’t buy the hype, I guess. The voting went like this:

36% for Tate Forcier
28% for Troy Woolfolk
15% for Mike Martin
15% for David Molk
3% for Denard Robinson

Explanation of the Countdown

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Brandon Graham was Michigan’s MVP last year.

As I started the 2010 Season Countdown, I assumed (wrongly) that people would remember the series from last year. But after fielding several questions on the topic, I realized that . . . well . . . nobody really read my blog last year. This still isn’t an extremely popular destination, but hey, 1,700+ hits for a full-time teacher and coach isn’t bad.

On to the explanation . . .

The countdown is designed to highlight each player and offer some opinions and analysis on each one. They are listed in order of “Least Important” to “Most Important” for the 2010 season. In other words, Christian Pace is at the bottom of the list because he’s the most likely to redshirt. Therefore, his impact on Michigan’s 2010 performance will be almost nil.

Last year’s 2009 Season Countdown had the following players in the top five:

1. Brandon Graham
2. Tate Forcier
3. Donovan Warren
4. Obi Ezeh
5. Brandon Minor

Now imagine if Brandon Graham had been lost to injury – Michigan would have lost 10.5 sacks and its defensive leader, and perhaps former walk-on Will Heininger would have drawn into the lineup. More likely, Ryan Van Bergen would have moved to defensive end full-time and Renaldo Sagesse, Greg Banks, or Will Campbell would have played 3-tech defensive tackle. Yeah . . . trading in Brandon Graham for Renaldo Sagesse – albeit a serviceable player – scares me, too.

Think about this: if Tate Forcier had been lost to injury and Denard Robinson had made the same number of passing attempts (281), Robinson’s 12% interception rate would have translated to approximately thirty-three (33!) interceptions. Michigan fans would have been clamoring for Nick Sheridan.

Without Warren (and Boubacar Cissoko, who got booted off the team), imagine potentially having J.T. Floyd and Teric Jones as your starting corners. Yikes!

It turns out, Obi Ezeh was injured in 2009, which partly caused him to have his worst season as a starter. In his stead, Michigan played redshirt sophomore, 206 lb. Kevin Leach.

I probably overestimated Brandon Minor’s importance to the team, since there were other running backs to pick up the slack. I still maintain that Minor was Michigan’s best back for the past two seasons, but the drop-off between Minor and Carlos Brown isn’t nearly as significant as, say, Brandon Graham to Will Heininger or from Forcier’s 13 interceptions to Robinson’s estimated 33 picks.

So I’m presenting the 2010 Season Countdown. On average, one player will be revealed each day until the beginning of the season, and the #1 guy is – in my estimation – the most important player for Michigan’s success this coming season.

Kevin Sousa, Wolverine

Kevin Sousa, a 6’2″, 213 lb. quarterback from Orlando, FL, committed to the Wolverines on Tuesday. He received an offer just over a week ago and immediately scheduled a trip to Ann Arbor. Sousa has been on the recruitment radar for several months, but the coaches admitted to him that their higher valued targets (Braxton Miller, Christian LeMay, Everett Golson, Kiehl Frazier, etc.) were headed elsewhere and they were expanding their recruitment of the position.

Sousa’s actual size is a bit of a mystery, since he’s listed in various places to be somewhere between the above height/weight and 6’4″, 235. Six-feet-four and 235 lbs. sounds a little big to me, despite the fact that his arms in the above picture look like WIFFLE ball bats. But however tall and broad he stands betweens those ranges, Little Tate Forcier this is not.

Sousa just started playing football as a sophomore, after being a soccer player in his earlier days. Furthermore, Lake Nona High School’s program was in its first year when Sousa was a junior, so there’s plenty of room to improve, both for him and his team. In two seasons as a varsity quarterback, he’s thrown for 2,636 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 1,775 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also missed three games of his sophomore year due to a knee injury, so those numbers are slightly deflated. Also, all accounts point to Sousa being a highly coachable kid who’s ready and willing to learn (video interview here).

Watching Sousa’s highlight film, I see a lot of great things and several things that he’ll need to improve. He’s a great physical specimen with excellent size, good speed, and good vision. He has an above average arm to get the ball downfield. For being new to the sport, he’s got a good head on his shoulders. He keeps his eyes downfield when he’s scrambling and tries to find the open man. When he does tuck the ball and run, he can run around or through defenders. In fact, there are times where he tries to run over smaller kids rather than leaving them in the dust.

Mechanically, he has plenty to improve. He needs to hold the ball higher when dropping back, which will quicken his release. His windup is a little long, especially when scrambling. I also noticed that there were several times where he tried to escape pressure with the ball dangling from his right hand only; if you watched Tate Forcier at the beginning of the 2009 Ohio State game, you know that’s not a good idea. I’d also like to see Sousa hop a little bit less. Most of his snaps seem to come out of the shotgun, and instead of taking steps to drop back, he hops up and down. Not only does it put him in a poor position to throw, but it also affects a quarterback’s vision – the receivers and defenders are suddenly bobbing up and down in his sightline, as if he’s standing on a dinghy. That was a problem in his junior season film (the first video) but seems to have been corrected by the spring game (second), so hopefully that problem has been fixed permanently.

Luckily for Michigan, Sousa should have plenty of time to improve. Tate Forcier, Denard Robinson, and/or Devin Gardner should be able to hold down the fort at quarterback through at least 2013. Sousa can redshirt in 2011 and continue to work on the little things. He’s exactly the kind of quarterback that Michigan should be getting in this class, and realistically, Rodriguez and Co. couldn’t have expected a much better outcome with QB recruiting. There are a few guys out there who are more polished, but not many with better physical talent. However, very few elite prospects would have wanted to come in a year after Devin Gardner and two years after Forcier/Robinson. Sousa is a great addition to the recruiting class.

Junior year:

Spring game before senior season:

2010 Countdown: #72 Devin Gardner

Name: Devin Gardner
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 195 lbs.
High school: Inkster High School in Detroit, MI
Position: Quarterback
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: #7
Prediction for 2010: Redshirt

Gardner was arguably Michigan’s top recruit in the class of 2010 and ended the recruiting cycle ranked as the #1 dual-threat quarterback in the country, according to Rivals. Actually, the argument is probably null and void now that Demar Dorsey wasn’t accepted to U of M and will be attending Louisville instead. But anyway, Gardner is good. Everybody thinks so. He has great size, very good speed, a strong arm, and excellent leadership qualities. He has a few mechanical issues, but plenty of time to fix them . . .

. . . because Gardner is going to redshirt this year . . . I think. He should, anyway, unless Forcier and/or Denard Robinson gets hurt. There’s no reason to have three extremely talented quarterbacks over two classes. Redshirting Gardner would give him potentially two years to start once Forcier and Robinson graduate after 2012 – perhaps more, if he beats them out. The young man you see above could be our starting quarterback through 2014. But in the meantime, he should stand on the sideline and learn how to make complicated hand signals.