2013 Season Countdown: #16 Derrick Green

Tag: Derrick Green


13Aug 2013
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2013 Season Countdown: #16 Derrick Green

Derrick Green (image via The Wolverine)

Name: Derrick Green
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 240 lbs.
High school: Richmond (VA) Hermitage
Position: Running back
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: #27
Last year: Green was a senior in high school. He had 1,350 yards rushing and 21 touchdowns.

The battle for Derrick Green came down to Auburn, Tennessee, and Michigan after also strongly considering Ohio State, Oregon, and Virginia Tech, among others. He made his final decision late in the process, and there was much rejoicing! In January I did a study of Rivals’ top-ranked tailbacks since the inception of the site in 2002, and the results were generally pleasing. The average top-rated back gets 429 carries, gains 2,442 yards, and scores 22 touchdowns. Green arrived on campus this summer and was immediately listed at 240 lbs., and there was much hand wringing! He was listed at 220 lbs. as a high schooler, but that was probably a lowball figure. He’s barrel chested with some bulk in his lower body, so my guess is he was probably 230-235 lbs. as a senior and when he played in the U.S. Army All-American Bowl.

Redshirt senior Fitzgerald Toussaint is the favorite to win the starting job, which is expected since he has two years of starting under his belt. The battle for the backup job is the interesting one, because no returning player has established himself as a potential feature back. Junior Thomas Rawls has received the bulk of the backup carries, so it comes down to Rawls, Green, and possibly true freshman De’Veon Smith. My pick for the top backup is Green, and I think he’ll be the heir apparent. Most backups wouldn’t be ranked this high in the countdown, but Toussaint has been injured every year except his breakout 2011 season and was suspended for game one of 2012. Odds are that Green – or whoever is the #2 guy – gets at least a start or two. He also should get some looks in short yardage and on the goal line due to his size.

Prediction: Backup tailback; 100 carries, 500 yards, 6 touchdowns

22Mar 2013
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Poll results: Best running back in 2013 class?

Derrick Green

Derrick Green – 78%
My thoughts are pretty clear from these guys’ commitment posts and the general attitude toward these players that Green would be my choice as the top running back in the 2013 class.  Green has steadily improved throughout his high school career, going from guard to eventually being one of the top few backs in the class.  He has the size, speed, and attitude to carry that success into college.  I don’t think he’ll be the greatest back in the history of college football or anything, but I do think he will have a good career in the winged helmet.


DeVeon Smith – 17%
Smith is a guy who’s a little smaller than Green, and while he runs with an attitude, he lacks some big-play capability because of a lack of speed.  Big runs out of Smith are going to have to come on the heels of several broken tackles.  Some people like to compare Smith to Mike Hart, but Hart had to break a lot of tackles to become Michigan’s all-time leading rusher because of a lack of explosive speed; if Smith lacks some of the vision and toughness that Hart had, he’s going to struggle to become the lead guy.


Wyatt Shallman – 3%
Shallman had been insistent that he was recruited to be a tailback, but as time has gone on, it seems more and more clear that he will end up as a fullback or H-back, or maybe somewhere else entirely; after all, he did play defensive end as a high schooler.  Shallman has a chance to be an effective player, but chances are slim that his career will surpass either of the aforementioned backs’.

14Feb 2013
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Final TTB Ratings for 2013

Maurice Hurst, Jr. made the biggest leap in
the final TTB Ratings

Here are the finalized TTB Ratings for the class of 2013.  Discuss!

Derrick Green – RB – Richmond (VA) Hermitage: 92 95
The more I think about the offensive line Michigan is building, the more I think Green is going to have a very good career in a winged helmet.  He could very well be the starter by his sophomore year, if not as a freshman.

Dymonte Thomas – S – Alliance (OH) Marlington: 92 89
I’m downgrading Thomas because I don’t know that he’s an All-American candidate, which is what a 90+ grade entails.  I think he will still be a very good player and turn into an all-conference player as a strong safety.

Kyle Bosch – OG – Wheaton (IL) St. Francis: 88
I’m going to leave Bosch right where he is.  He looks like an excellent guard prospect, and I like his nastiness.

Shane Morris – QB – Warren (MI) De La Salle: 89 87
Morris still has all the physical schools he has ever had – strong arm, decent athleticism – and has shown with his recruiting that he has some leadership skills.  It just seems like he has some limitations on seeing the whole field and making good decisions.

Patrick Kugler – C – Wexford (PA) North Allegheny: 83 86
With a couple years between Jack Miller and Kugler, the latter should have at least a couple seasons as a starter.  I liked what I saw of him at the Under Armour All-American Game.

Chris Fox – OT – Parker (CO) Ponderosa: 90 85
Fox’s ACL tear concerns me some. He’s still a big body who’s pretty athletic, but I fear that this injury might put him behind some of the other linemen to begin..

Jourdan Lewis – CB – Detroit (MI) Cass Tech: 86 84
Lewis isn’t the biggest, strongest, or fastest recruit out there, but he shows good change of direction and ball skills.  I like him as a college cornerback, but he might be limited beyond that.

Jake Butt – TE – Pickerington (OH) North: 82
I’m leaving Butt right where he is. He’s not a “next generation” tight end who can run really fast and jump really high, but he’s a very solid prospect.  He should have no problem turning into a good blocker at the very least.

Ben Gedeon – LB – Hudson (OH) Hudson: 82 81
I still like Gedeon, but I have slightly more confidence in Butt as a prospect.  I like turning running backs into linebackers, and he has experience at both positions.

Da’Mario Jones – WR – Westland (MI) John Glenn: 79 81
As Michigan’s passing offense improves and they can find more ways to get the ball to receivers, I like Jones’s skill set more.  He’s not an absolute blazer, but he offers a dimension of speed that some other recent receiver recruits lack.

Henry Poggi – DT – Baltimore (MI) Gilman: 81 79
Watching Poggi in the Under Armour All-American Game, I still think Poggi looks like a good prospect for the college level – he played very well – but I’m not sure he’ll have the size or explosion to be a serious NFL prospect down the road.

Maurice Hurst, Jr. – DT – Westwood (MA) Xaverian Brothers: 73 78
I always liked Hurst’s athleticism, but I like his energy, too.  After seeing his senior highlights and his performance in the Semper Fi All-American Bowl, I think he has some potential to be a pretty good player down the road.

Csont’e York – WR – Harper Woods (MI) Chandler Park Academy: 79 77
York’s rating doesn’t change much, but I have less confidence in him than Poggi.  He still has considerable upside because he can go up and get the ball, but he’s not a dynamic athlete.

Taco Charlton – DE – Pickerington (OH) Central: 75 76
Charlton has the speed to stick at weakside end, but he keeps growing and growing. I wonder if at some point he might be too heavy to play WDE and end up as a strongside end. Considering some lacking technique, that could be troublesome.

Logan Tuley-Tillman – OT – Peoria (IL) Manual: 79 75
I’m downgrading Tuley-Tillman a little bit because he’s so raw.  He’s helped by the fact that he’s the only left tackle prospect in this class, but it’s tough to get a feel for him.  Pass protection is still a huge issue for him as he learns.

Mike McCray II – LB – Trotwood (OH) Trotwood-Madison: 74
This seems to be a pretty good spot for McCray. It’s unclear whether he’ll finally end up at SAM or MIKE. He’s a good athlete, but I have questions about his ability to read plays quickly.  I might be in favor of putting him at SAM, where he would be in a position to attack more often than having to read and react.

Channing Stribling – CB – Matthews (NC) Butler: 73
I thought about bumping up Stribling, but I just don’t think I can do it.  He showed his ability to make plays in high school, but I just don’t think he has the speed to be a dynamic player in college.  Most of Michigan’s good corners over the past 15 years or so have been fast or at least quick, but I don’t see that in Stribling.

David Dawson – OG – Detroit (MI) Cass Tech: 67 71
I’m bumping Dawson up a little bit, because I think he could be a starter later in his career.  Anyone who becomes a starter with the way Michigan is recruiting has to be pretty good player, but I don’t see a particularly high ceiling for him.

Delano Hill – CB – Detroit (MI) Cass Tech: 71 69
Hill has lots of physical talent, but if he were a great playmaker, he would have been rated higher by the recruiting services.  He seems to be a guy who could be a very good special teamer and earn spot duty in college, but he’s a man without a position – is he a corner or a safety? – and there’s talent at those spots already.

Wyatt Shallman – RB – Novi (MI) Catholic Central: 65
I think this is a pretty good spot for Shallman.  I don’t think he will ever be a starter at running back, although he could be a factor at fullback or U-back in the future.  He also has the ability to contribute on defense, but Shallman and the coaches have been insistent that he’ll play offense.

Ross Douglas – CB – Avon (OH) Avon: 63
Douglas was recruited to play slot corner, and when you combine that with his lack of great size, I think he’s somewhat limited when projecting him beyond college.  I think he could be a solid slot corner in the same vein as Brandon Harrison.

DeVeon Smith – RB – Warren (OH) Howland: 63
I thought about bumping Smith up because I truly believe that Michigan will be putting together some good rushing seasons in the coming years because of the offensive line, and not totally because of the talent of the running backs.  I do not believe Smith has the speed to be a dynamic running back himself, but he might put up good numbers as a backup and perhaps eventual successor to Green.

Reon Dawson – CB – Trotwood (OH) Trotwood-Madison: 62
Dawson does have some potential to outperform this ranking, but he’s behind some of the other guys in technical prowess.  The speed and size are there.  It just depends on how it all comes together.

Khalid Hill – TE – Detroit (MI) East English Village: 68 60
Hill can fill a role on this team, but he has talent ahead of him and his lack of speed or size sort of limits his upside.

Dan Samuelson – OG – Plymouth (IN) Plymouth: 65 59
I think Samuelson will be a quality backup down the road, who could make a spot start and be fine.  However, I think he’s someone who might get lost in the shuffle with the rest of the linemen Michigan is getting.

Jaron Dukes – WR – Columbus (OH) Marion Franklin: 70 58
Dukes didn’t have a great senior season, and I already had questions about him going into the 2012 season.  He doesn’t have great speed, and he doesn’t look like a lithe athlete who can make up for that speed deficiency with acrobatics.

Scott Sypniewski – LS – Ottawa (IL) : Incomplete
I don’t know enough about long snappers around the country to offer an opinion here.

12Feb 2013
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2013 Recruiting Awards

Derrick Green is dressed properly for the occasion

You can go ahead and glance back at my 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 recruiting award posts.

Best Overall Recruit: RB Derrick Green
Green is widely considered to be the top recruit in Michigan’s class, and running backs are often fairly easy to scout.  Based on the way Michigan is recruiting the offensive line, I think there’s a good chance that Green becomes an All-Big Ten player and perhaps an All-American.  That kind of performance at a place like Michigan would likely set him up for a high NFL Draft pick.

Best Offensive Recruit: RB Derrick Green
Considering the above paragraph, this is obvious.

Best Defensive Recruit: S Dymonte Thomas
Thomas is listed at 6’2″, 192 lbs.  He has good speed and shows excellent hitting ability.  I was particularly impressed with him as a hitter/tackler during the U.S. Army All-American Bowl.  I think his long-term potential might be somewhat limited because he hasn’t spent much time in coverage, and NFL teams love those ball hawks.  But as for playing strong safety in college, Thomas looks like an excellent prospect.  I’m excited about his future.

Recruit Most Likely to Make an Early Impact: RB Derrick Green
Until Green committed a couple weeks ago, I would have chosen tight end Jake Butt.  However, Green enters the program when Michigan is looking for a viable #2 tailback, if not a starter while Fitzgerald Toussaint recovers from his broken leg.  I don’t think it’s out of the question for Green to be the leading rusher in 2013.

Fastest Recruit: CB Delano Hill
Hill is a workout warrior who puts up good numbers, and while his speed doesn’t always show up on the field, he did have a laser-timed 4.44 time in the forty.  There really aren’t a whole lot of blazing-fast players in this class.  A couple of the cornerbacks – including Hill – might end up at safety, and a couple of the wide receivers are bigger, slower guys.  None of these guys has speed that jumps out at you, but there are a few guys who can scoot a little bit – Green, Hill, Thomas, Ross Douglas, Reon Dawson, and Da’Mario Jones.

Strongest Recruit: OG Kyle Bosch
Bosch is a big, thick kid who probably doesn’t need to add much size before seeing the field.  He enrolled early at Michigan, and insiders are already saying that he might be in line for a little bit of playing time as a true freshman.  While I’m not sure that will be necessary (unless there are injuries), it’s still a positive tidbit about his future.

Best Under-the-Radar Recruit: WR Da’Mario Jones
Jones is a 6’2″, 185 lb. receiver with good speed.  He needs some polishing, but his speed should allow him to be a deep threat a little more than several other guys on the roster.  When he committed to Michigan, he was sitting on several MAC offers and one from New Mexico.

Most Overrated Recruit: CB Delano Hill
Hill is a 4-star to three of the major recruiting sites (ESPN ranks him as a 3-star), but I think he’s closer to a 3-star prospect.  He is a very good athlete, but I’m not sure he has the football instincts and playmaking ability to justify those 4-star rankings.

Most Likely to Redshirt: OT Chris Fox
Fox, who tore his ACL toward the end of his senior season, will miss some developmental time while he recovers.  Additionally, Michigan returns both starting tackles (Taylor Lewan, Michael Schofield) and has a couple decent redshirt freshmen (Ben Braden, Erik Magnuson), so there’s not much need for Fox to play this year.

Personal Favorite Recruit: S Dymonte Thomas
Thomas was a two-way star in high school who put up excellent numbers on both sides of the ball.  He also seems to be a heady kid who reportedly improved quickly during the U.S. Army All-American Bowl, so I think he’ll be fun to watch.  Jordan Kovacs was fun to watch over the past couple seasons, and Thomas should eventually take that strong safety position and play at an even higher level.

27Jan 2013
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A History of #1 Rated Tailbacks

Is this what we should expect from Derrick Green?

Recruiting is an inexact science, and we have no idea what we’ll get in the coming years from Derrick Green (commitment post).  But Rivals is generally considered to be the best recruiting site for predicting future success, so I thought I would take a look back at their top tailbacks over the last decade or so.

2002
Rivals: Ciatrick Fason, Florida – In three seasons at Florida, Fason had 315 carries for 1,877 yards (6.0 yards/carry) and 14 touchdowns.  Fason was drafted in the fourth round (#112 overall) by the Minnesota Vikings in 2005, for whom he played two seasons.  He had 50 career carries for 161 yards (3.2 yards/carry) and 5 touchdowns.

2003
Rivals:
 Reggie Bush, USC – In three seasons at USC, Bush had 433 career carries for 3,169 yards (7.3 yards/carry) and 25 touchdowns, along with 95 career receptions for 1,301 yards and 13 touchdowns.  He won the Heisman Trophy in 2005.  He was the #2 overall pick by the New Orleans Saints in 2006.  In five seasons with the Saints and two with the Miami Dolphins, he has 967 carries for 4,162 yards (4.3 yards/carry) and 29 touchdowns.  He also has 372 receptions for 2,730 yards and 15 touchdowns.

2004
Rivals:
Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma – In three seasons at Oklahoma, Peterson had 747 carries for 4,045 yards (5.4 yards/carry) and 41 touchdowns.  Peterson was the #7 overall pick by the Vikings in 2007.  In six seasons with the Vikings, he has 1,754 carries for 8,849 yards (5.0 yards/carry) and 76 touchdowns.  He had the second-best season rushing total in NFL history this past season with 2,097 yards.

2005
Rivals:
 Jonathan Stewart, Oregon – In three seasons at Oregon, Stewart had 516 carries for 2,891 yards (5.6 yards/carry) and 27 touchdowns.  Stewart was the #13 overall pick by the Carolina Panthers in 2008.  In five seasons with the Panthers, he has 818 carries for 3,836 yards (4.7 yards/carry) and 27 touchdowns.

2006
Rivals:
Chris Wells, Ohio State – In three seasons at Ohio State, Wells had 585 carries for 3,382 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 30 touchdowns.  Wells was the #31 overall pick by the Arizona Cardinals in 2009.  In four seasons with the Cardinals, he has 625 carries for 2,471 yards (4.0 yards/carry) and 24 touchdowns.

2007
Rivals:
 Joe McKnight, USC – In three seasons at USC, McKnight had 347 carries for 2,213 yards (6.2 yards/carry) and 13 touchdowns.  McKnight was drafted in the fourth round (#112 overall) by the New York Jets in 2010.  In three seasons with the Jets, he has 112 carries for 502 yards (4.5 yards/carry) and 17 catches for 177 yards; he has also averaged 29.0 yards per kickoff return with 2 return touchdowns.

2008
Rivals:
Darrell Scott, Colorado – Scott spend his freshman and sophomore seasons at Colorado before transferring to South Florida.  Altogether, he had 263 carries for 1,252 yards (4.8 yards/carry) and 6 touchdowns.  He was undrafted and has not played in the NFL.

2009
Rivals:
 Bryce Brown, Tennessee – Brown spent his freshman year at Tennessee before transferring to Kansas State; in his freshman and redshirt sophomore seasons, he totaled 104 carries for 476 yards (4.6 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns.  Brown was drafted in the seventh round (#229 overall) by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2012.  As a rookie he had 115 carries for 564 yards (4.9 yards/carry) and 4 touchdowns.

2010
Rivals:
 Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina – In three seasons at South Carolina, Lattimore had 555 carries for 2,675 yards (4.8 yards/carry) and 38 touchdowns.  He will skip his senior season to enter the 2013 NFL Draft.

2011
Rivals:
Malcolm Brown, Texas – In two seasons at Texas, Brown has 233 carries for 1,066 yards (4.6 yards/carry) and 9 touchdowns.

2012
Rivals:
 Johnathan Gray, Texas – In one season at Texas, Gray has 149 carries for 701 yards (4.7 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns.

CONCLUSION
Ignoring Gray and Malcolm Brown altogether, and removing Lattimore from NFL Draft consideration, here’s the average production that we should expect from Rivals’ top tailback:

College career length: 3 seasons
College rushing production: 429 carries for 2,442 yards (5.7 yards/carry) and 22 touchdowns
NFL Draft slot: 2nd round, #63 overall

Where would that career rank among former Michigan players?  The 429 carries would put him at #22 in Michigan history, behind Rick Rogers and ahead of Chris Howard.  The 2,442 yards would put him at #17, behind Ron Johnson and ahead of Ed Shuttlesworth.  The 22 touchdowns would place him at #18, behind Lawrence Ricks/Tshimanga Biakabutuka and ahead of Brandon Minor.  Of players with at least 100 career carries, that 5.7 yards/carry would tie him at #7 behind Jon Vaughn, Denard Robinson, Kerry Smith, Tyrone Wheatley, Biakabutuka, and Rob Lytle.

Based on Michigan’s offensive system and Green’s skill set, if you’re looking for a comparison to another former #1 tailback, I think the best replica would be Ohio State’s Chris “Beanie” Wells.