Tag: game preview

Rose Bowl Preview: Michigan Pass Offense vs. Alabama Defense

MICHIGAN PASS OFFENSE
Michigan ranks #73 in passing offense (218.8 yards/game), but they’re #5 in passing efficiency and #14 in yards per attempt (9.0). Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was reportedly banged up for the last few weeks of the season, and some in Michigan circles have pointed to that being a major factor while he had a statistically mediocre run to end the regular season and then into the Big Ten Championship Game. McCarthy has thrown just 1 touchdown and 1 interception in the last five games, though he completed 68.6% of his throws during that time and twice topped the 80% mark. Michigan’s vaunted offensive line was leaky in pass protection, especially on whichever side tackle Karsen Barnhart was manning. Now that Barnhart has slid inside to replace injured right guard Zak Zinter, things may improve in pass pro a little. It will be interesting to see whether Myles Hinton or Trente Jones takes on the full-time right tackle position, since Jones has played a ton of the “extra tight end” role. Michigan’s best matchups at pass catcher are at tight end, where Colston Loveland (40 catches, 572 yards, 4 TD) and A.J. Barner (22 catches, 249 yards, 1 TD) reside. The leading overall receiver is speedy Roman Wilson, who has 41 catches for 662 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year. The wild card is RB Donovan Edwards (30 catches, 249 yards), who can create matchup issues with linebackers if used judiciously.

ALABAMA PASS DEFENSE
Alabama is #24 in pass defense (188.8 yards allowed/game) and #17 in pass efficiency defense, allowing 14 touchdowns while making 12 interceptions (#42). Their 6.4 yards allowed/attempt is tied for #15 nationally. The NFL builds around cornerbacks and pass rushers, and Alabama has some of the best in the country. They have two potential 1st round cornerbacks in redshirt sophomore Terrion Arnold (6’0″, 196), who has 5 interceptions and 11 pass breakups, and junior Kool-Aid McKinstry (6’1″, 195), who has 7 pass breakups. The Crimson Tide rank #13 in sacks (2.92 per game). They have three players with 7+ sacks, including OLB Dallas Turner (6’4″, 252) with 9.0, senior OLB Chris Braswell (6’3″, 255) with 8.0, and fifth year senior DE Justin Egboigbe (6’5″, 292) with 7.0. For comparison, the last time Michigan had three players with 7+ sacks in one season was . . . never.

Advantage: Alabama. Michigan’s receivers are going to have a tough time uncovering against Arnold and McKinstry, so the Wolverines are going to have to rely heavily on what they can get over the middle with the tight ends and running backs. I would expect Colston Loveland to lead Michigan in receiving in this one, but the pass rush could be a major issue if Barnhart and company can’t hold up. Michigan has really struggled to throw the ball explosively against teams with decent pass rushers (Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, etc.), and I don’t know why that would change here in the CFP.

Rose Bowl Preview: Michigan Rush Offense vs. Alabama Defense

MICHIGAN RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan ranks #61 in rushing offense (161.8 yards/game), #71 in yards per carry (4.27), and #4 in rushing touchdowns. The Wolverines went from a heavy rush offense the past two years to more of a balanced attack this season. So despite having a talented and very experienced offensive line, the rushing numbers have dropped off some. Blake Corum topped 1,000 yards this season, but he needed the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa to get there (218 carries, 1028 yards, 24 TD). Star running back Donovan Edwards is somehow the second least efficient running back in the Big Ten (3.5 yards/carry). The offensive line had to reshuffle during the Ohio State game after losing All-American right guard Zak Zinter to a broken leg. The good news is that he was replaced at guard by Karsen Barnhart, who seems to perform better at guard than tackle. The bad news is that new right tackle Trente Jones used to be Michigan’s sixth lineman in the jumbo package, so now perhaps that package is gone. Possibly, though, the coaching staff could spend the bowl practices incorporating someone else – such as backup Myles Hinton – as the jumbo tight end.

ALABAMA RUSH DEFENSE
Alabama is #31 in rush defense (124.5 yards allowed/game) and #33 in yards allowed per carry (3.7). They have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season, which is tied for #39 in the country. Although the team has improved overall throughout the season, the rushing defense has arguably got worse. Ten out of those 14 rushing touchdowns allowed have come in the last five games, while LSU and Auburn have run for 8.6 and 5.8 yards per carry, respectively. LSU has Heisman-winning dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels, but Auburn has . . . nobody noteworthy. The leading tackler for the Crimson Tide is true freshman strong safety Caleb Downs (6’0″, 203 lbs.), who has an amazing 99 stops. He’s followed by sophomore LB Jihaad Campbell (6’3″, 230), who has 65 tackles but is listed as a backup; redshirt sophomore CB Terrion Arnold (6’0″, 196) with 61; redshirt sophomore LB Deontae Lawson (6’2″, 230) with 61; and fifth year senior DE Justin Egboigbe (6’5″, 292) with 60. Egboigbe and OLB Dallas Turner (6’4″, 252) are the guys to watch to be making plays in the backfield. While the interior defensive line play has not been outstanding, the Tide have a couple huge starting tackles in redshirt sophomore Tim Kennan III (6’2″, 315) at nose tackle and sophomore DT Jaheim Oatis (6’5″, 320).

Advantage: Alabama. The overall numbers and recent history favor the opponent. Michigan has been overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage in recent years against SEC opponents like Alabama and Georgia. I don’t see that getting much better now that Michigan will be without its best offensive lineman. Michigan has not had explosive plays in the run game this season, so unless J.J. McCarthy can become a bigger factor and channel his inner Jayden Daniels, I expect Michigan to struggle a little. I do think they’ll find some success – it won’t be a total bloodbath in the trenches – but Michigan will have to be creative and balanced.

Big Ten Championship Preview: Michigan vs. Iowa

RUSH OFFENSE vs. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #53 in rushing offense (169.8 yards/game) and tied for #56 in yards per carry (4.44). Ohio State held up fairly well against the run last week, but they did allow a 22-yard touchdown run by Blake Corum immediately after Michigan starting RG Zak Zinter was lost for the season due to a broken leg. It may be interesting to see what Michigan does with the offensive line. Last week it was RT Karsen Barnhart sliding to right guard, with jumbo TE/extra OT Trente Jones sliding in at right tackle. But Michigan has some options with backup offensive guard Giovanni El-Hadi and former starter Myles Hinton, who was injured two weeks ago but may be available this week. The problem with inserting Jones at right tackle full-time is that it may eliminate Michigan’s formations with that sixth offensive lineman. Iowa is #17 in rushing defense (105.6 yards allowed/game) and they give up just 3.09 yards per carry, which is #9 nationally. They have also allowed just 2 rushing touchdowns this season, which is #1. Senior LB Jay Higgins (6’2″, 233 lbs.) has some ridiculous stats with 141 tackles, including a season-high 18 against Penn State in the Hawkeyes 31-0 loss. Fellow senior LB Nick Jackson (6’0″, 237) has 91 stops of his own, followed by senior safety Quinn Schulte (6’2″, 209) with 59. Senior DE Joe Evans (6’2″, 252) leads the team with 9.5 tackles for loss, followed by Jackson’s 8.0 and senior safety Sebastian Castro (5’11”, 206) with 8.0. It’s a very well coached defense, as always, and they’ve won 10 games despite a terrible offense.
Advantage: Iowa

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Preview: Michigan vs. Ohio State Notes and Prediction

ROSTER NOTES

• Ohio State players recruited by Michigan are too numerous to list. A huge chunk of the Buckeyes’ roster was targeted by Michigan.
• Ohio State players from the State of Michigan include: S Cameron Martinez (Muskegon), RB Cayden Saunders (Northville), WR Kai Saunders (Northville), OT Grant Toutant (Warren De La Salle)

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…

• On November 26, 2022, Michigan beat Ohio State 45-23 at Ohio Stadium
• Michigan established a 60-51-6 lead in the rivalry
• Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud completed 31/48 passes for 349 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions
• RB Donovan Edwards ran 22 times for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns, including 85- and 75-yarders
• WR Cornelius Johnson caught 4 passes for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns, including 75- and 69-yarders
• Converted LB Kalel Mullings completed a jump pass from the RB position for a 15-yard gain to Luke Schoonmaker

PREDICTION

• Ohio State 23, Michigan 17

Preview: Michigan Defense vs. Ohio State Offense

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RUSH DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #9 in the country, allowing just 90 yards/game on the ground. That includes allowing 2.96 yards/carry, which is also #9 nationally. Last week Maryland managed just 15 yards on 33 attempts (including sacks), though they did score 3 touchdowns from the 1-yard line on quarterback sneaks. Linebacker Junior Colson leads the team with 60 tackles, followed by 42 from LB Michael Barrett and 32 from Ernest Hausmann. (Side note: The gap from #1 to #2 to #3 in tackles is ridiculous; the #3 tackler is averaging fewer than 3 tackles per game.) At this point everyone knows about Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant on the defensive line, but #4 defensive tackle Rayshaun Benny has quietly been coming on and now has 23 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss on the season, including 4.5 TFL in the past six games. Ohio State is #85 in rushing offense (145.6 yards/game) and #69 in yards per carry (4.33). Junior RB TreVeyon Henderson (5’10”, 212 lbs.) was not healthy early in the year, but he has 74 carries for 499 yards and 5 touchdowns in the past four games. Backup RB Deamonte “Chip” Trayanum (5’11”, 233) is the Arizona State transfer who had a solid game against Michigan last year, and he has 79 carries for 336 yards and 3 TD so far this year. Quarterback Kyle McCord (6’3″, 215) is not a threat on the ground, with 31 attempts for -62 yards on the year. Up front the Buckeyes don’t have a dominant offensive line like they have had in some years, but LG Donovan Jackson (6’4″, 320) is the best of the bunch. Redshirt sophomore LT Josh Simmons (6’5″, 310) was playing for Brady Hoke at SDSU at this time last year, and redshirt freshman C Carson Hinzman (6’4″, 300) has also struggled at times. Henderson is a potential breakaway threat at running back, and Michigan needs to slow him up at the line of scrimmage.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #2 in pass defense (144.8 yards allowed/game) and #3 in passing efficiency defense. They’re #7 in yards allowed per attempt (5.7). This all comes despite being just so-so at getting after the QB, with 2.46 sacks per game, which is #40 nationally. OLB Jaylen Harrell leads the team with 6.5 sacks, followed closely by fellow OLB Josaiah Stewart with 5.5 quarterback takedowns. On the back end, it will be interesting to see what Michigan does to combat Ohio State junior WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (6’4″, 205), who has 62 catches for 1,093 yards and 13 touchdowns on the season, despite teams scheming non-stop to shut him down. Michigan could choose to shadow him with #1 CB Will Johnson, but I don’t think Johnson can cover him one-on-one. Harrison will require safety help, whether it’s Johnson or Josh Wallace covering him. Senior TE Cade Stover (6’4″, 251) is the #2 target with 38 catches for 534 yards and 5 scores, followed by junior WR Emeka Egbuka (6’1″, 206), who has 32 catches, 427 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The Buckeyes are #42 in the country in sacks allowed (1.64 per game). McCord’s immobility will be a factor if Michigan can get after him, and he can’t be allowed to sit back and wait for Harrison to come open, because Harrison is the best player in the country, in my opinion.
Advantage: Michigan