Preview: Michigan vs. Penn State

Tag: Penn State


11Oct 2014
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Preview: Michigan vs. Penn State

Rush Offense vs. Penn State Rush Defense
The Wolverines are now #57 nationally with 181 yards/game on the ground, and they’re #32 in rushing average (5.1 yards/carry). They were unable to find a consistent running game against Rutgers last week, but they did improve as the game went along, particularly behind left guard Graham Glasgow and left tackle Mason Cole. The top rusher is Derrick Green (471 yards, 5.7 yards/carry, 3 touchdowns), who will miss the rest of the year with a broken collarbone. Default starter De’Veon Smith (282 yards, 6 yards/carry, 4 touchdowns) is a somewhat ponderous but hard-running back, and we will probably see more Justice Hayes (5.3 yards/carry, 0 touchdowns) and Drake Johnson (3 carries, 28 yards). Quarterback Devin Gardner had a couple rushing touchdowns last game and is a potential game-changer when scrambling out of the pocket. Meanwhile, Penn State has a stingy run defense and gives up just 60 yards/game, good enough for #2 in the country behind Louisville. Teams average 1.99 yards/carry against them, which is best in the nation. Their leading tackler is middle linebacker Mike Hull with 53 stops, while the next best on the team is strong safety Ryan Keiser with 23. That’s a huge dropoff from #1 to #2, so Hull is the main cog in the defense. Ends C.J. Olaniyan (6’3″, 252 lbs.) and Deion Barnes (6’4″, 255 lbs.) are not big but have a fair amount of talent, and redshirt junior Anthony Zettel (6’4″, 274 lbs.) starts at three-tech. The only defensive lineman with impressive size is redshirt sophomore nose tackle Austin Johnson (6’4″, 313 lbs.). The loss of Green removes an element of explosiveness from the running game, and an already stingy PSU front will probably feast on an improving but underperforming Michigan line.
Advantage: Penn State

Pass Offense vs. Penn State Pass Defense
Gardner has – finally and mercifully – been named the permanent starter at quarterback. His numbers are not great (63% completions, 5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions), but he’s the best Michigan has. Top target Devin Funchess (29 catches, 392 yards, 3 touchdowns) looks to be recovering from a high ankle sprain, but he has not scored a touchdown since the season opener against Appalachian State. The other wide receivers are not noteworthy, so it seems like tight ends Jake Butt (7 catches, 96 yards, 1 touchdown) and Khalid Hill (4 catches, 37 yards) will factor in more and more. Slot receiver Dennis Norfleet can’t catch the ball downfield, but he’s somewhat effective on short passes. Michigan is tied for #92 in sacks allowed, which is not as bad as it could have been following a game against Rutgers. Penn State is #58 in the country in giving up just under 229 yards/game. No opponent has completed even 57% of their passes against the Nittany Lions, and they picked off 5 Gary Nova passes in their contest against Rutgers. Junior cornerback Trevor Williams (6’1″, 188 lbs.) and senior safety Adrian Amos (6’0″, 209 lbs.) are tied for the team lead with 2 interceptions each, but the team has just 5 return yards on 6 interceptions. The front has accrued 13 sacks, which is tied for #37 in the country, and they’re led by Zettel (3.0), Barnes (2.0), and Olaniyan (2.0).
Advantage: Penn State


Rush Defense vs. Penn State Rush Offense
The Wolverines are decent against the rush, ranking #12 at a fraction over 100 yards/game. They’re tied for #15 in the country in allowing just 2.93 yards/carry. Linebackers Joe Bolden (48) and Jake Ryan (46) lead the team in tackles by a wide margin. Meanwhile, defensive end Frank Clark (6.5) and Ryan (6.0) lead the squad in tackles for loss. The unit has improved this year, especially on the interior, where defensive tackles Ryan Glasgow and Willie Henry are significantly better than last season. Meanwhile, Penn State is #115 in rushing the ball and averaging 101 yards/game on 3.1 yards/carry. Starting running back Bill Belton (5’11”, 204 lbs.) averages 3.9 yards/carry, and bruiser Zach Zwinak (6’1″, 233 lbs.) averages 2.8. The only back to reach even 80 yards in a single game was third-stringer Akeel Lynch (6’0″, 215 lbs.), and that came against UMass. The offensive line is fairly young with two redshirt juniors (LT Donovan Smith, C Angelo Mangiro), one redshirt sophomore (RG Brian Gaia), and two redshirt freshmen (LG Brendan Mahon, RT Andrew Nelson). This should be Michigan’s most advantageous matchup.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Defense vs. Penn State Pass Offense
Michigan’s secondary is reeling a little bit after last week’s disaster, when they allowed 404 yards to Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova. That performance dropped them to #40 against the pass (215 yards/game) and #82 in passer rating defense. The Wolverines have been banged up in the secondary, including safety Delano Hill, safety Jeremy Clark, and cornerback Jabrill Peppers. Furthermore, Michigan’s secondary has created just one turnover, an interception from Jourdan Lewis. Michigan ranks #51 and has 12 sacks on the season, but nobody has stood out as a pass rusher; backup end Taco Charlton leads the team with 2.5 quarterback takedowns. On the flip side, Penn State is tied for #102 in giving up sacks (14 so far). Even so, they are #25 in throwing the ball (307 yards/game), albeit with the #82 passer efficiency rating. Sophomore starting quarterback Christian Hackenberg (6’3″, 234 lbs.) is completing just 58% of his passes for 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and he’s coming off of a poor performance against Northwestern (48%, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, 4.8 yards/attempt). The surprise star on offense has been redshirt freshman wideout DaeSean Hamilton (6’1″, 203 lbs.), who has three 100+ yard games this season and leads the team with 36 catches. On the opposite side, redshirt sophomore Geno Lewis (6’1″, 199 lbs.) averages 17 yards/catch. Tight end Jesse James (6’7″, 254 lbs.) could be a matchup problem with his size, but outside of their win against Akron, he has averaged just 9.3 yards/catch with 0 touchdowns. Belton is also someone to watch out of the backfield (14 catches, 129 yards, 1 touchdown). It doesn’t make sense to me, but based on what Rutgers did to Michigan, I have to give this category to . . .
Advantage: Penn State


Roster Notes

  • Players recruited by Michigan include S Marcus Allen, DE Deion Barnes, RB Bill Belton, WR Saeed Blacknall, TE Adam Breneman, LB Ben Kline, OT Brendan Mahon, DE C.J. Olaniyan, and DT Anthony Zettel
  • Defensive end Brad Bars is the older brother of Michigan redshirt sophomore OG Blake Bars
  • Players from the state of Michigan include FB Charles Idemudia, DE C.J. Olaniyan, and DT Anthony Zettel

Last Time They Played . . .

  • Devin Gardner ran 24 times 121 yards
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint ran 27 times for 27 yards
  • Devin Funchess caught 37- and 59-yard touchdown passes
  • Brendan Gibbons was 4/7 on field goals, including having one blocked
  • Christian Hackenberg completed 23/44 passes for 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, but he was clutch when throwing to Allen Robinson (5 catches, 84 yards, all seemingly over Channing Stribling) late in the game
  • Bill Belton scored an easy 2-yard touchdown to win the game in four overtimes by a score of 43-40

Predictions

  • Michigan once again comes out looking somewhat competent on offense
  • Michigan unveils the power read option for the first time this season
  • The Wolverines intercept Hackenberg twice
  • Penn State 24, Michigan 21
2Jan 2014
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School in the News: Penn State

Well, Penn State coach Bill O’Brien is off to the Houston Texans, putting the status of the Nittany Lions’ program and recruiting class in question yet again. The two most logical choices to replace O’Brien are former Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano, who is a former PSU assistant coach and just got fired from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and current Miami Hurricanes head coach Al Golden, a former Nittany Lion player and assistant coach.

Roster players recruited by Michigan: DE Deion Barnes, RB Bill Belton, TE Adam Breneman, LB Ben Kline, OG Brendan Mahon, DE C.J. Olaniyan, DE Anthony Zettel, RB Zach Zwinak
2014 commits offered by Michigan: S Marcus Allen, CB Troy Vincent, Jr.

I would not expect any players to transfer to Michigan, and Michigan didn’t pursue Allen or Vincent very hard in the first place, so I doubt O’Brien’s departure will have any effect on Michigan in the immediate future. Olaniyan and Zettel are both from the state of Michigan, but both would likely be starting next season in Happy Valley. Obviously, the bigger question would be Penn State’s recruiting going forward.

I saw O’Brien speak at a clinic in Pennsylvania a couple years ago, and while he gave a rousing speech geared toward PA coaches and taking pride in the Nittany Lions, the entire time I was thinking to myself, “This is great and all, but you’re going to be out the door as soon as a bigger job opens up for you.” Obviously, nobody should blame the guy for taking an NFL if that’s what he wants to do, but it just shows that players should commit to programs instead of coaches. Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg, who had a solid season as the starter and was rated by many as the #1 quarterback in the 2013 class, is reportedly considering a transfer.

14Oct 2013
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Michigan vs. Penn State Awards

Devin Funchess had 4 catches for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Dennis Norfleet. If Norfleet’s going to be a slot receiver, he needs to be on the field. And not just in special packages where it’s a near certainty that he’ll get the ball. I somewhat understand not putting him out there a ton if he’s your full-time returner, but now that Drew Dileo has taken over the punt return duties, Norfleet’s duties have essentially been cut in half. Michigan needs to spend more time in the spread and less time with two or three tight ends and a fullback. And if that happens, Michigan will have to spell some guys with the likes of Norfleet.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . a fullback. Whether it’s Joe Kerridge or Sione Houma, I don’t really care about whether this team employs a fullback anymore. The offensive line is too porous to make a fullback relevant, and Kerridge isn’t a threat to run or catch the ball. His role is to lead block on run plays that result in zero yards. There’s just no point. Spread teams out horizontally and hope that Toussaint can find some alleys.

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Delonte Hollowell. The junior cornerback has lost playing time this year to freshmen Channing Stribling and Jourdan Lewis, but Hollowell is the feistiest of the bunch. I’ve never been impressed with his athleticism or ball skills, but he is physical and seems to be in position most of the time. At the end of regulation, I would have preferred to have seen Hollowell in there instead of Stribling.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Channing Stribling. Stribling’s a freshmen, and I’m fairly on him. But the bottom line is that the game moves very quickly for true freshmen, especially in clutch situations. In my opinion, he’s not the guy you want in there during crunch time. He mistimed a couple jumps and flat-out whiffed on a couple passes completed to Brandon Felder and Allen Robinson, allowing the Nittany Lions to march down the field and tie the game. Stribling has to take some responsibility for that, but so do the coaches who chose to put him out there.

Play of the game . . . Frank Clark’s fumble return for a touchdown. It wasn’t just the return, either. Defensive end Keith Heitzman got some great penetration to slow up Penn State running back Zach Zwinak, who cut back only to be tackled by linebacker James Ross III. Ross reached across with his right hand to punch out the ball, Clark scooped it up, dodged PSU quarterback Christian Hackenberg, and raced 24 yards for the score. Prior to that play, Michigan was down 21-10 and looking for a spark, and Clark helped to provide it.

MVP of the game . . . Devin Funchess. I was very close to picking Devin Gardner for this award, but Gardner’s two interceptions gave Penn State short fields that resulted in 14 points. Instead, I’m picking the tight end who had 4 catches for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns, from 59 and 37 yards, respectively. Gardner has had a hard time hitting anyone over the top except Funchess, who has proven to be more of a deep threat than wide receivers Jeremy Gallon or Jehu Chesson.

13Oct 2013
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Penn State 43, Michigan 40 in four overtimes

(image via Penn Live)

Michigan deserved to lose. You win when you deserve to win, and Michigan didn’t deserve to win. From the offensive play calling to the offensive line’s incompetence to the quarterback’s decision making to the defense’s inability to get pressure and cover short passes to the special teams’ inconsistency, Michigan didn’t deserve a victory. Penn State didn’t play their best football, either, but they looked less incompetent.

The coaches have lost confidence in Devin Gardner as a passer. There was a time when Brady Hoke and Al Borges would have let quarterback Devin Gardner air it out in a game like this, but instead, they chose to curl up into the fetal position – almost literally – and try to luck their way into a victory. Despite averaging just 2.8 yards/carry on fifty-four  rushing attempts, Michigan turned overtime into mostly an unproductive rushing effort. Michigan ran for 1, 1, 0, 3, -3, 8, 0, 0, and 7 yards in overtime, with that last 7-yarder coming on a Gardner scramble. The biggest offense came in the first overtime, when the play call/execution resulted in Gardner running from the 23-yard line on the left hash to the 23-yard line on the right hash on 3rd-and-8, presumably in an effort to “center” the ball for kicker Brendan Gibbons. Gibbons’s subsequent 40-yard field goal was blocked by defensive tackle Kyle Baublitz.

The offensive line is/was a mess. All-American left tackle Taylor Lewan left the game in the second quarter with what looked like an injury to his left side, perhaps a hip or a rib. He was replaced by right tackle Michael Schofield. Left guard Chris Bryant was presumably replaced for poor performance after some poor blocking; in came walk-on guard Joey Burzynski. Redshirt sophomore Graham Glasgow was playing left guard two weeks ago and has had several mental mistakes in his two games at center. Right guard Kyle Kalis took a senseless 15-yard penalty and was replaced for a short time by Burzynski before returning. The right tackle for the second half was redshirt freshman Erik Magnuson. Another walk-on, Erik Gunderson, also saw significant playing time in certain packages. Overall, by the end of the game, the only guy in the same spot as two weeks ago was Kalis. Meanwhile, running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint and Derrick Green were swarmed in the backfield the entire game, totaling 30 carries for 28 yards.

Offensively, the lone bright spot was Devin Funchess. Tight end Devin Funchess had his second consecutive 100-yard game with 4 catches for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also had a couple key drops, but a tight end with 263 yards and 3 touchdowns in two games is pretty impressive.

Damn freshmen. Maybe I’m being a bit harsh, but a huge chunk of this loss falls on the shoulders of freshman cornerback Channing Stribling and whichever defensive coach was responsible for putting him in there. At the end of regulation, Stribling entered the game and was beaten on two long passes by the average Brandon Felder and Penn State standout receiver Allen Robinson. On both occasions, Stribling had chances to knock down or intercept the passes, but he mistimed his jumps and/or misjudged the ball, failing to get even a finger on either pass. The game was just moving too fast for him, which is why I hate having to play so many young players. In a year or two, those will be picks or knockdowns for Stribling. The same thing goes for Jake Butt’s failure to catch a back shoulder fade from Gardner in overtime; Butt showed his hands too early and failed to plant and go up for the ball. Instead, he settled for trying to catch it with his momentum going away from the ball and into the sideline. Both of things contributed to linebacker Mike Hull being able to bat the pass away at the last second despite not turning around for the ball.

Michigan can’t run the ball, and that’s not going to change. At this point in the season, I feel pretty confident in saying that nobody but Gardner will be able to run the ball effectively. Gardner even carried the ball 24 times, and he’s not going to hold up with that type of responsibility on his shoulders. I hate to say this, but Michigan needs to ditch the runs from under center and become a team that throws the ball 40-45 times a game. They need to get creative with their screen game, including bubbles and slip screens; they also need to find a way to get Dennis Norfleet on the field in regular packages and incorporate him into the offense, both as a scatback third-down replacement for Toussaint and as a slot receiver.

Despite the 43 points, I thought the defense played pretty well overall. Nine of those 43 points came in overtime. Additionally, two of Penn State’s touchdowns came after Gardner interceptions, which gave the Nittany Lions the ball on the 14- and 20-yard lines, respectively. They ran the ball 44 times for 85 yards (1.9 yards/carry) and 2 touchdowns, from the 1- and 2-yard lines, respectively. Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg completed 23/44 passes for 305 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he was also sacked 4 times and intercepted twice, while a large chunk of that yardage (79) came on the final drive in regulation when they beat Stribling.

Frank Clark is coming on. Clark had 3 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 2 fumble recoveries, one of which he picked up and ran 24 yards for a touchdown. He’s had a little bit of a fire lit under him after the first couple games of the season, and hopefully that fire stays lit. After barely showing up on the stat sheet early, he’s now sitting at 15 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 5 quarterback hurries, 2 fumble recoveries, and the aforementioned touchdown return.

What does this all mean? Well, I don’t think Michigan has a shot at winning the Big Ten this year. They’ve been playing with fire all year in close games with Akron and UConn, not to mention Notre Dame or the closer-than-it-should-have-been game against Minnesota last week. It finally bit them in the butt. The closest thing remaining to a team Michigan should  beat easily is Iowa, but they always seem to play Michigan tough, especially in Iowa City. Michigan also has Indiana’s number over the years, but the Hoosiers can put some points up on the board (41.7 points/game). Michigan State is going to feast on Michigan’s running game, Nebraska’s tough, Northwestern is good when healthy, and Ohio State is probably going to crush us. This is probably going to be ugly down the stretch.