Preview: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

Tag: Tate Forcier


11Sep 2009
Uncategorized no comments

Preview: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

Old rivals come together on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Two teams that have been down for a couple years suddenly have reason for optimism, but one is going to end this weekend disappointed with at least a few fans calling for their coach’s head.

Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
This is the one area where Michigan should have a big advantage. With three seniors and two juniors on the offensive line, not to mention four returning starters, Michigan should be able to run the ball. Notre Dame’s defensive front seven have decent size, but they’re not very stout. Notre Dame will have to stunt linebackers to get penetration, but Michigan’s running backs have the speed and elusiveness to make the Irish defense pay for missed tackles and blitzing out of control. Michigan can run the ball out of the I-formation even if starting fullback Mark Moundros misses the game Saturday, and the Wolverines showed last year that they can run the ball from the shotgun spread formation as well.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
I’m not too concerned about Michigan’s ability to protect the quarterback, but the Notre Dame defensive backfield should be significantly better than Western Michigan’s. Tate Forcier should start and play the majority of the game, but Michigan’s receivers might not be quite as open as they were last week. The Wolverines should be able to take advantage of mismatches in the slot and at tight end, but I don’t expect the receivers on the outside to be able to get deep on the Irish defensive backfield. I expect this to be a bit of a dink-and-dunk offensive week for Michigan, getting Martavious Odoms, Kelvin Grady, and Carlos Brown open in the flats and hoping they can make safeties and linebackers miss. However, Notre Dame has experienced safeties and I doubt the downfield passing game will be a huge threat.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense
With Michigan’s improved tackling and speed this season, open space may not be their biggest enemy anymore. However, if Notre Dame lines up in power run formations and tries to come right at Michigan, that could be problematic. Notre Dame has a stable of solid (albeit unspectacular) running backs, and Michigan’s linebackers – particularly Obi Ezeh – have struggled with taking on lead blocks and filling gaps. Notre Dame also has the ability to attack SAM linebacker Steve Brown in the run game, which should be Brown’s first real test against taking on kick-out blocks. Nose tackle Mike Martin and defensive end Brandon Graham can probably cause fits for Notre Dame’s offensive line, but the Irish might be able to take advantage of the opposite side of the line.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame Pass Offense
This part scares me. A lot. Michigan fans might hate The Emu and laugh about his Yakety Sax performance from two years ago, but Clausen has turned into a pretty good quarterback. He has a very strong arm and he’s accurate (15-18 last week). Michigan is breaking in two new starting safeties (one of whom got beat for a 73-yard TD pass against WMU), and even with two good cornerbacks, the Wolverine defensive backs are probably no match for wide receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. Tate abused Michigan in the 2008 version of this game, and Michael Floyd abused Boubacar Cissoko in the 2008 Army All-American game. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson has to decide whether he wants to keep Donovan Warren in position as the field cornerback or if he wants Warren to lock up with Michael Floyd wherever Floyd goes on the field. Lining up Floyd outside and Tate in the slot could force some mismatches I don’t even want to mention . . . but I will – Golden Tate in man coverage with Steve Brown. Yikes. Ugh. Please. God. No. I would rather see Cissoko follow Tate into the slot and have Brown cover a third wide receiver on the outside, such as Duval Kamara or Robby Parris. And I haven’t even mentioned Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph, although I expect him to have a minimal impact because I think Brown and Obi Ezeh will be decent enough at covering him. Clausen will end this game with many yards . . . and after being sacked a few times.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams
Golden Tate is a talented runner, but Zoltan Mesko is a talented punter. Michigan’s coverage teams have been pretty solid, and I’ll expect that they remain that way. After last year, I still don’t trust Michigan’s returners to hold onto the ball. I’ve always contended that Greg Mathews is a solid punt return man, if only because he’s sure-handed. Neither placekicker has much status in the world, so I’ll say Zoltan > Tate.
Advantage: Michigan

Final Predictions

  • Clausen will throw for over 300 yards.
  • Golden Tate and Michael Floyd will each have a 40+ yard catch.
  • Brandon Graham will record at least two sacks.
  • Either Brandon Minor or Carlos Brown will go over 100 yards rushing.
  • Tate Forcier will throw his first collegiate interception.
  • Final score: Notre Dame 31, Michigan 27
6Sep 2009
Uncategorized 5 comments

Michigan 31, Western Michigan 7

Wow. That’s the one word that kept coming to mind as I watched the game yesterday. This is such an utterly different team than the 2008 incarnation that it’s difficult to imagine Steve Threet and Nick Sheridan running this type of offense.

It’s clear that Tate Forcier is the driving force behind this offense. Any argument to the contrary would be insanity. He didn’t run the ball particularly well and needs to work on his reads on the zone read option. That being said, except for a couple hitches, Forcier threw the ball very well and directed the offense better than anyone else on the roster can. He looked like a veteran quarterback on the first TD pass when he scrambled and directed Junior Hemingway to head downfield. His second TD pass to Hemingway brought back memories of Henne-to-Manningham. And Forcier’s play action fakes on Rich Rodriguez’s version of the waggle pass were excellent, not to mention his ability to square his shoulders and fling the ball to Koger for a TD and then that one-handed snag seen above.

Denard Robinson was adequate. His 43-yard touchdown run was, quite simply, electric. But keep in mind that it came on a broken play where he mishandled the shotgun snap; he was supposed to run the ball left or perhaps pitch it to Martavious Odoms who was coming behind him for a potential end around. If you take away that 43-yard run, Robinson ran the ball 10 times for 31 yards. He completed two short passes; missed badly on another in which he and the receiver weren’t on the same page; and threw a dangerous deep jump ball to Mathews that ended up incomplete. Robinson’s body language and decision making indicated that the game was moving a little too fast for him. Things will slow down for him and he could be a star down the road, but that time isn’t now.

The running game was a bit of a disappointment for me. Forcier made some poor reads, and Rodriguez seemed more interested in getting the ball on the perimeter than taking advantage of his stable of running backs and WMU’s poor defensive line. Some of this may have been due to the fact that starting fullback Mark Moundros was injured on special teams early in the game; without their best lead blocker, perhaps Rodriguez and Magee preferred to keep the ball on the outside. Regardless, the offensive line was a strength and even though starting running back Carlos Brown finished with 5.4 yards per carry, I feel Michigan could be even better at running the ball in the coming weeks.

Defensively, I was impressed with Greg Robinson’s schemes and Michigan’s tackling. There were several plays on Saturday where I thought WMU’s running backs would have broken tackles if they were facing the 2008 defense. But Michigan’s defenders seemed to stick to ballcarriers like glue. Not only were they tackling better, but the defense was hurrying to the football. If the first guy didn’t make the play, usually a second guy was there ready to clean up the mess.

In the second half, WMU quarterback Tim Hiller started getting rid of the ball quicker. He found a rhythm and started hitting underneath passes to his receivers. Greg Robinson might be served well by disguising coverages on the outside, changing the look from cover 2 man to a cover 2 zone. Suddenly, instead of driving the cornerback off with his initial burst, that cornerback is sitting underneath the quick hitch to the outside. A couple well orchestrated disguised coverages might be just enough to make Hiller think twice, which would give Brandon Graham, Mike Martin, and the rest of the defensive line enough time to get to the quarterback.

Offensive game ball goes to . . . Tate Forcier. He finished 13/20 for 179 yards, 3 TDs, and – most importantly – zero interceptions, fumbles, or sacks in his first game at Michigan.

Defensive game ball goes to . . . I was tempted to say Donovan Warren, but I’ll say Steve Brown. He finished third on the team with six tackles, including five solo. His new position at SAM linebacker appeals to his strengths, which are speed and physicality. Warren made several tackles and played very physical, but he picked up two pass interference penalties and a personal foul.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . Denard Robinson. Until he can run the offense more smoothly and completely, he should be behind center less. I felt like the offense got bogged down when he was in the game. His passing was subpar and jittery, and it seemed like WMU’s defense didn’t respect his ability to do anything but run. (Honorable mention: Nick Sheridan and David Cone.)

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . J.T. Floyd. Floyd was in there as a backup to Boubacar Cissoko once Cissoko aggravated his shoulder injury. But especially in next week’s game against Notre Dame, with Jimmy Clausen throwing to Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, Michigan can’t afford to put Floyd in there at cornerback. He got burned a couple times – including the 73-yard TD pass, on which Troy Woolfolk was also at fault – and he’s probably just too slow to be playing corner. If Michigan had any depth at the CB position, Floyd would probably be a safety. Hopefully Cissoko gets healthy and freshman Justin Turner steps up his game in the coming week. Otherwise, I’m afraid we should expect a rain of deep balls from Clausen next week.

MGoBlue’s official game information.

25Aug 2009
Uncategorized no comments

2009 Countdown: #36 Nick Sheridan

Name: Nick Sheridan
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 218 lbs.
High School: Saline High School in Saline, MI
Position: Quarterback
Class: RS junior
Jersey Number: #8
2008 statistics: 63-for-137 passing, 46% completion percentage, 610 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs
Prediction for 2009: Backup quarterback

The subject of much debate both in 2008 and 2009, Sheridan has performed admirably both on the field and in interviews. A former walk-on who just happened to be there when a black hole developed at quarterback for the Wolverines, Sheridan started the opener last year and almost immediately gave way to Steve Threet. Threet’s inability to stay healthy led to more playing time for Sheridan on the way to a 3-9 season.

Reports out of camp are that Sheridan has a better command of the offense than either Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson, which only makes sense. But I doubt Sheridan will play much this year at all. I think one of the freshmen (probably Tate Forcier) will start the opener against Western Michigan, and the other freshman will play. Sheridan could be a steadying influence at some point this season if Michigan gets into a game where both freshmen are skittish and having off days; at the very least, Sheridan should be able to make the run game go and hit some bubble screens. But that’s about all we can really expect from Sheridan, whose talent is overmatched at this level.

7May 2009
Uncategorized 19 comments

Is the Rodriguez offense evolving?

Michigan message boards have been roaring lately about the commitment of Drew Dileo, a lightly recruited slot receiver from Louisiana. Nine months before signing day 2010, Michigan fans are wondering why Rich Rodriguez would offer – let alone accept a commitment from – a player whose next best offers come from Stanford and Northwestern. Fellow Michigan commits Antonio Kinard and Tony Drake still don’t have any FBS offers besides Michigan.

Watching these message boards flutter with activity about Dileo, I began to wonder what Rodriguez might have in store for Michigan’s offense. My mind took a not-so-huge intellectual leap from Rodriguez’s spread offense to those of his good friend Urban Meyer at Florida and Mike Leach at Texas Tech.

Looking at Meyer’s roster for 2009, I made an interesting (to me) discovery:

Going into the 2009 season, Florida has only two scholarship running backs (Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody) on the roster. Fellow “backfield mates” Jeff Demps and Brandon James are both listed as “athletes” on their official roster, and both are 5’8″ or smaller and about 185 lbs. The class of 2009 adds only Mike Gillislee to the running back stable, which means a total of three designated running backs. Meanwhile, Florida has nine scholarship receivers and one incoming (Andre Debose) to give them a total of 10 receivers.

In 2008, Florida threw the ball 329 times (37.7%) and ran the ball 545 times (62.3%).

Meanwhile, Texas Tech has 15 returning scholarship receivers and four freshmen joining the team in 2009 to give them a total of 19 receivers. They threw the ball 465 times (59.5%) and ran the ball 317 times (40.5%).

Both are spread offenses, but they’re vastly different.

Michigan currently has eight receivers. Two will graduate after this season, but four are incoming this year and six more will arive in 2010. Hypothetically, this gives Michigan a total of 16 scholarship receivers for three spots on the field in 2010 (assuming no position changes, for sanity’s sake):

Cameron Gordon, Je’ron Stokes, Jeremy Gallon, Teric Jones, Drew Dileo, Jeremy Jackson, Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, D.J. Williamson, Tony Drake, Junior Hemingway, Martavious Odoms, Terrance Robinson, Roy Roundtree, James Rogers, Darryl Stonum

With the entrance of Tate Forcier to the fold (a polished passer with a slight build), I think it’s safe to say that Rodriguez’s offense might be evolving into a pass-first spread. I sincerely doubt it will turn into Texas Tech and their standard of four- and five-wide sets, but I think it’s clear that he’s trying to develop the depth at the wide receiver position to throw the ball at will. Not only does a bloated number of receivers increase the chances of finding impact players at the position, but it allows the coaches to rotate players in and keep them fresh for running downfield and blocking. I would not be surprised to see more sets with four wide receivers in the next two or three years, but I think three will remain the norm.

I’m excited to see what the Michigan offense will look like in the next couple years. I’m fairly certain that Michigan’s offense will not replicate that of West Virginia circa 2005-2008. Forcier and, arguably, 2010 recruit Devin Gardner are better passers than Pat White was coming out of high school. Therefore, It would seem counterintuitive for Rodriguez to bring in an accurate, polished quarterback and 16 receivers to run the ball 60% of the time like Meyer is doing in Florida. Once Rodriguez gets his offense going at Michigan, I would expect that the Wolverines will be throwing the ball 50 to 55% of the time.
26Mar 2009
Uncategorized no comments

Rich Rodriguez is a drama queen

Mark Snyder’s blog says that Nick Sheridan was seen with crutches and a walking boot, which means my official diagnosis is that Nick Sheridan did not:

1. break his femur.
2. improve his chances of winning the starting QB job.
3. contract AIDS.
Broken femurs usually involve loud cracking noises, lots of screaming, and a wheelchair with a mattress on it.

Starting quarterbacks usually are medically cleared to play football.

And #3 is just a guess, really.

It’s unclear how serious Sheridan’s injury is. A sprain or a break will likely not affect his medical clearance for football season. It will probably prevent him from participating in much of spring practice, perhaps even the duration of the spring session.

I wouldn’t venture as far as to say that Tate Forcier is happy about this turn of events, but certainly things couldn’t have gone any better for him earning the starting QB nod for the fall. He enrolled early. Last year’s starter, Steven Threet, is transferring. Last year’s other starter, Sheridan, is now hobbled. And his fellow Class of 2009 quarterback is finishing up high school in Florida.
Rich Rodriguez clearly shies away from quarterback stability, as every Michigan quarterback now seems to run away or suffer from Bill Blass disease.

Meanwhile, Justin Feagin keeps getting sucked into the black hole that is the Michigan quarterback position. The coaches keep telling him to play slot and he keeps practicing at slot, but he keeps looking closer and closer to playing quarterback.

Meanwhile, our quarterback depth chart as of this moment looks like this:

1. Tate Forcier
2. Justin Feagin
3. Carlos Brown
4. Terrence Robinson
5. Mary Sue Coleman
6. David Cone