2019 Season Countdown: #40 Oliver Martin

2019 Season Countdown: #40 Oliver Martin


July 24, 2019
Oliver Martin

Name: Oliver Martin
Height:
6’1″
Weight:
200 lbs.
High school:
Des Moines (IA) West
Position:
Wide receiver
Class:
Redshirt sophomore
Jersey number:
#80
Last year:
I ranked Martin #44 and said he would be a backup wide receiver with 10 catches for 110 yards and 1 touchdown (LINK). He made 11 receptions for 125 yards and 1 touchdown.
TTB Rating:
83

Hello, you self-loathing bastards who clicked on this article!

Martin transferred to Iowa, in case you didn’t know. But he was here at #40 on the countdown before that rumor finally became true, so I present to you a reason for disappointment.

Martin was indeed a backup wide receiver, and I was only 1 catch and 15 yards off in my prediction for his 2018 stats. He started one game and his career-best performance so far came against Rutgers with 3 catches for 38 yards and 1 touchdown.

After an off-season full of rumors about whether he would stay or go, he finally decided to head home to greener pastures, where he wouldn’t be blocked for playing time by a gaggle of 4-star recruits who are all 6’2″+ and super fast. I had hopes that Martin would have a good career if he stuck around long enough, but he was always unlikely to pass up the likes of Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins, and Tarik Black.

Now his 2019 season looks like him redshirting for the second time in three years, this time due to NCAA transfer rules. He will probably be pretty good for Iowa in 2020 and 2021, but it seems like an odd choice to transfer right now. He could have pushed to graduate in three years, played this season, and then become immediately eligible in 2020 with two years left to play for the Hawkeyes. Instead, he sits out this year and will only be able to play 3 out of 5 potential seasons, not 4 out of 5.

Martin’s departure hurts Michigan from a depth perspective. Tarik Black has been constantly injured during his two years on campus, leaving Collins and Peoples-Jones as the dependable returners. Otherwise, Michigan is looking at Ronnie Bell, walk-ons (Jake McCurry, Nate Schoenle), and freshmen (Mike Sainristil and others) to hold down the slot/backup receiver spots.

Prediction: Redshirt

27 comments

  1. GKblue
    Comments: 317
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    GKblue
    Jul 24, 2019 at 5:45 PM

    You shouldn’t have fessed up, somebody would have bitched about his countdown ranking.

  2. Lanknows
    Comments: 5334
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Jul 24, 2019 at 6:01 PM

    The “odd choice” makes more sense if you see 5 WR in the freshman class, 3 in the next class, and more on the way. Not being recruited by the current OC probably a factor as well.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3268
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jul 25, 2019 at 6:38 AM

      It’s still an odd choice. Most of those freshmen aren’t ready to play, and even if you stay in the same spot in the pecking order, you’re at least seeing the field instead of sitting out.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 5334
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 25, 2019 at 2:39 PM

        Not a big difference for a guy who is 5th or 6th on the depth chart or lower. He’s not playing much either way. Some in game snaps here and there vs an entire season with your team…

        His primary objective is trying to prepare for his shot for a starting role at Iowa in 2020. At Iowa he spends the year learning the scheme he will (presumably) play a big role in while working with the same teammates and coaches in practice and still goes to every game.

        The way bigger issue is where he wants to get his degree from.

  3. Avatar
    Comments: 1564
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Jul 24, 2019 at 6:15 PM

    Agree on the timing of this transfer. I assumed with a RS year 1, he had enough to graduate in 3, and then move on as a Grad xfer. Perhaps not

  4. Lanknows
    Comments: 5334
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Jul 24, 2019 at 8:59 PM

    Is there any evidence Martin had the option to graduate early? Seems like a not-so-easy thing but it’s been a minute since I was in undergrad.

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1564
      Joined: 1/19/2016
      je93
      Jul 24, 2019 at 10:23 PM

      There’s no evidence I know of, that’s why I ‘assumed’

      It’s based on athletes graduating in three years regularly. Peters, St Juste, & RonJohnson are a few of the latest

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3268
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jul 25, 2019 at 6:29 AM

      A lot of people are graduating in three years if they want to. You just have to make sure to take classes in the summer, which a lot of athletes do anyway because they’re staying on campus and don’t want to take heavy class loads during the Fall/Winter semesters.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1564
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Jul 25, 2019 at 10:25 AM

        He hasn’t argued in a day or two, so he’s reaching

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 5334
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Jul 25, 2019 at 2:56 PM

      I have the impression it is still a tiny minority of students and student-athletes who do this. Is it incorrect to say the vast majority of college grads take 4 years or longer to finish their college degrees? Obviously it is possible to do it sooner (for some) but the default assumption that it is possible for anyone seems highly dubious to me.

      This seems like the opposite argument to the one you made re: Milton/McCaffrey where you said something like — here’s the big trend, your argument about an exception is irrelevant.

      Regardless, it seems like the more likely explanation for Martin’s actions are that he is doing a logical thing under a conventional timeline, rather than assuming a rather illogical thing under an unconventional timeline. I don’t have any reason to think Martin is an illogical dude.

      He’s buried by classmates, has already been passed by a younger player, is about to see a boatload more competition on the way, and plays for an OC that didn’t recruit him.

      It all adds up, IMO.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1564
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Jul 25, 2019 at 3:31 PM

        Yeah, you’re reaching for an argument, even though you swore it off just two weeks ago

        I did not predict he would graduate, nor did I insist I knew the reason for transfer. I agreed with Thunder that graduating early made sense – even if it’s an exception to the norm, it has occurred (at MICHIGAN) recently. Again, just an assumption

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 5334
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 25, 2019 at 3:45 PM

        I’m a) offering a different opinion and b) wondering if I was missing anything. For all I know the rate of typical kids graduating in 3 years could have gone way up — great for my bank account if so. I don’t think it has to be taken as argumentative, but I understand you want to take it that way.

        • Avatar
          Comments: 1564
          Joined: 1/19/2016
          je93
          Jul 25, 2019 at 5:04 PM

          You can’t help it. You have to either condescend, or just make stuff up. I never said Milton would transfer. I agreed that “IF” one would, he’d be my guess, based on his reported dissatisfaction with PT, how high the staff seems to be on Mac, and then getting mom involved. I said as much in that thread, but you can’t help but read into it whatever you want

          “This seems like the opposite argument to the one you made re: Milton/McCaffrey where you said something like — here’s the big trend, your argument about an exception is irrelevant’

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 5334
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jul 25, 2019 at 6:22 PM

            I wasn’t talking to you and I’m not really interested in arguing about Milton with you. You miss the point – that’s fine.

      • Thunder
        Comments: 3268
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        Jul 25, 2019 at 6:28 PM

        I haven’t done a study on it, so I don’t know. But athletes often enroll early and stay to take classes all summer, so their student experience is not the same as non-athletes.

        However, there are several recent examples of players graduating in three years – Alex Malzone, Brandon Peters, Ron Johnson, etc. It seems if you decide you want to do it, you can make it happen. Maybe not if you’re stupid. I have no reason to believe Oliver Martin is stupid. So I think if he really wanted to, he probably could have worked out how to grad transfer after three years. Instead, he’s a standard transfer after two.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 5334
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Jul 25, 2019 at 7:01 PM

          I don’t think needing longer than 3 years to graduate means you are a dummy, athlete or not. The kids playing football and doing this are working pretty hard, is my guess. In my mind they are exceptions. Maybe that’s wrong and any non-dummy can do it if they want.

          I always thought of the summer stuff as a catch up for the sacrifices made in fall. The few players I took classes with (not slackers) I know were strapped for time and took lighter fall loads, though they had tutor help for sure. I have no doubt things have changed since then, so maybe your perspective is correct.

          I also think that if it was easy to graduate in 3 years you’d see a lot of 5-year guys graduating with masters degree (like Noah Furbush), particularly those without NFL futures. Maybe that’s happening without my knowledge.

          • Thunder
            Comments: 3268
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Jul 26, 2019 at 7:12 AM

            That’s not what I said. I said if you want to graduate in three years, you can probably figure out how if you’re not dumb. Some people don’t want to/need to graduate in three years, so they don’t need to figure it out.

            • Avatar
              Comments: 1564
              Joined: 1/19/2016
              je93
              Jul 26, 2019 at 9:58 AM

              Some folks just like to make stuff up

      • Thunder
        Comments: 3268
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        Jul 26, 2019 at 7:14 AM

        Regarding Milton/McCaffrey, it’s not an argument. It’s not my argument. It’s facts. I shared with you the link. Blue-chip QBs transfer a ton. The numbers are the numbers. I don’t even have to rationalize it. It just is.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 5334
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Jul 26, 2019 at 12:25 PM

          Never disputed the general trend for blue-chip QBs. Acknowledged it, even in my first comment on the thread:

          “I know what’s going on at Georgia, OSU, and other programs but I hope we don’t see the same stuff at Michigan.”

          It was always about applying a general trend to a specific guy in one instance (Milton) and not another (McCaffrey). [And other posters taking that and running with it for imminent departures and insults of character.] The argument boils down to what is appropriate speculation and how much weight you put on spring rumors vs on-field performance.

          I cited a Michigan-specific exemption to the general trend: McCaffrey, who is waiting his turn. You dismissed it. Now you’re citing Michigan-specific exemptions to a general trend. I’m not dismissing those – maybe it’s easier at Michigan to graduate in 3 years, IDK. Even if not, I think it’s fine to have different rationale in different contexts, it’s just interesting.

          • Thunder
            Comments: 3268
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Jul 26, 2019 at 12:38 PM

            You’re making assumptions. The general trend wasn’t applied to a specific guy (the statement was specifically that it would be unlikely for BOTH of them to finish their careers at Michigan). You just assumed that it applies to Milton only.

            You’re also assuming that three-year grad transfers are Michigan-specific when they’re not. The likely starting QB for Maryland this year (Josh Jackson) is a three-year grad transfer. I don’t have a whole list of three-year grad transfers in front of me, but the possibility is there – and not infrequently – if people want to leave after three years.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 5334
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Jul 26, 2019 at 1:54 PM

              Response bumped to below.

  5. Avatar
    Comments: 25
    Joined: 11/13/2015
    leftrare
    Jul 25, 2019 at 10:39 AM

    Since you’ve included Martin in your countdown, and assuming you also included Mike Danna who’s transfer you reported all the way back in February, I can now say with confidence that you’ve missed a guy again this year. Still, the countdown is always fun!

  6. Lanknows
    Comments: 5334
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Jul 26, 2019 at 1:54 PM

    I’m not assuming either of those things.

    As I said before, my comment wasn’t a response to what you wrote in the post alone, it was the consistency of the speculation whenever Milton’s name comes up as well as the assertion of it’s imminence – not by you. A reaction, not an assumption. You assumed it’s about that one comment but it wasn’t – I said that in that thread already.

    Further down I was responding to the people who argued that Milton was likely to be blocked for the next 3 years and/or speculating based on that unlikely hypothetical.

    I never disagreed that at some point some backup QB at Michigan will transfer. You may have noticed – usually if I disagree with something, I say it. I didn’t.

    I disagreed with the confident and hyper-specific speculation some posters had. Examples, if Patterson makes it through the year MIlton is probably gone, this kid in HS might transfer because of this other kid in HS. I can pull them if you want but a waste of time for both of us to rehash that.

    I’m also not assuming that 3-year grads are specific to Michigan. I’m assuming that 3-year grads are GENERALLY unusual – at Michigan and elsewhere. I’m asking for information/evidence beyond the anecdotal – which could be exceptional (or not).

    I understand your argument that it’s really just a choice that any person can easily make. I acknowledge it could be correct because things have changed and I don’t know. That said, I’m not convinced by it because it’s counter-intuitive to me and I see evidence to the contrary.

    You can call it an assumption that it takes 4 years for most people to graduate but it’s an observation. You seem to be assuming that athletes are dragging out graduation from 3 to 4 years by choice and simply put, a handful of examples over hundreds of scholarship athletes is not convincing to me.

    Ultimately I kind of agree with your logic in one way: IF Martin can easily grad transfer, I think he probably should. I don’t agree with the presumption that he can do it easily. I don’t agree that playing time in games should be a primary driver of that decision. But if you can graduate from Michigan and then get a Masters somewhere else without sacrificing any seasons, that’s a pretty good route for a guy in his shoes. It seems like a logical thing for somebody to do from the outside. Which is why I infer that option isn’t readily available to Martin. I could be wrong, but that’s my guess based on what I’ve seen – not an assumption.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 5334
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Jul 26, 2019 at 2:01 PM

      Did any of the recent 3-year guys like Bush or Gary get a degree? If not it’ll be interesting to see if any come back to get it later. I know Rose and Howard did but that’s ancient history.

      • Thunder
        Comments: 3268
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        Jul 26, 2019 at 2:54 PM

        I don’t know. Gary didn’t enroll early (Bush did) and both guys left school after Fall 2018. So Gary, for example, was only in school from June 2016 until December 2018, which is 2.5 years.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 5334
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Jul 26, 2019 at 3:31 PM

          Good point. Moreover, you never know how seriously people bound for millions in pro sports would be taking their final exams that last semester.

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