This is an interesting example of how our prejudice guides our conceptions.
There are two hypotheses on Isaac as he entered his college career: he is good, or he is not good. Neither was right or wrong, because we had no data. They are both just ideas.
As he entered college in 2013 the evidence FOR Isaac is that he is a 5-star recruit with offers from all over. The evidence AGAINST Isaac is that while recruiting rankings correlate with production, it’s highly uncertain and commonly disproven.
After 1 season at USC in 2013, both hypotheses remained valid. On the “he is good” side: you have an impressive yard per carry average, some good highlight that showed off his athletic skills, and the fact the he was not red-shirted. On the “he is bad” side: you have his position on the depth chart, and the plausible disregard for the ‘good’ data because it came against bad competition and/or in low leverage situations. The interpretation perhaps hinges on the context of that team – what does means for a freshman RB to be 5th string amidst other good talent? In other words:How good were those running backs?
The #1 back that year was Javoris Allen. Allen averaged 5.8 ypc that year and 5.4 ypc the following year. He is two classes above Isaac, had an excellent college career and was drafted in the 4th round and is the Ravens 3rd string back currently.
The #2 back that year was Tre Madden, who was also 2 years older than Isaac. After switching from defense and getting hurt in 2012, he averaged 5.1 ypc in 2013 and got hurt again in 2014. He is averaging 5.8 ypc this year and leads the team in carries. He is generally considered to be an NFL-caliber talent, but like Allen isn’t viewed as an elite one.
The #3 back that year was Silas Redd, a junior. (At least in terms of total carries. He was sometimes the #2 back when he was healthy.) Redd averaged 5.4 ypc and then 4.6 ypc in more limited action in 2014. He went undrafted but made the NFL and got backup carries with the Redskins. He has since gotten hurt, is out for the year, and has been waived. Hard to gauge his talent given injuries, but his future prospects don’t look great.
The #4 back was Justin Davis. Davis was a fellow freshman that year, ranked lower than Isaac as a recruit, but beat him out got more carries and averaged more YPC. This is now less justifiable than backing up veteran backs, but the case was made that Davis was ALSO a special talent. The thing is that now, in his junior year, Davis has only risen to third string. Last year as a second stringer he averaged 4.6 ypc (his ypc went down as he got more carries in tougher situations, like almost every back does.) This year his ypc is over 7, but as he is 3rd string, that’s only based on 20 carries. He seems pretty good, but far from great.
Isaac should not be expected to start over Allen certainly, not doing so only means he isn’t Bo Jackson. But it also means he’s probably not a future 1st round pick. The case of being bested by Madden and Redd is also justifiable due to age, but again should increment expectations a bit lower. These are quality veteran college backs but do not appear to be future NFL standouts. 22 RBs got drafted in 2014 and Redd was not one of them. At this point it becomes reasonable to lower the ceiling on Isaac’s potential when he’s not as good as guys who are somewhere around the Fitz Toussaint/Thomas Rawls level of RB talent. Losing to Justin Davis should lower expectations further than that.
So now we have some data. It’s still limited but nonetheless it’s useful. And this is where our paths diverge. The fan/optimist still sees the 5-star hype and the doubter/pessimist sees the 5th string status behind good but not great competition.
Then you have the lost year of 2014 due to transfer. The doubter sees a lack of hype, significant weight gain, injuries, and rumblings about work ethic, attitude, and even another transfer. The doubter sees the transfer as perhaps a sign of a lack of resilience that some of the rumors about mental toughness seem to substantiate. Meanwhile, the optimist sees the transfer as wholly justifiable and the bad rumors as something to be brushed aside. People transfer and people get hurt.
At this point though, any reasonable person would start to have doubts and increment expectations a bit downward. Isaac has an atypical body for a running back (taller and/or heavier than the vast majority of backs) and the track record of transfers in general offsets the track record of 5-stars in general to at least some degree. The objective odds are starting to stack against him. A former 5-star player, now 240 pounds, and coming off a transfer and injuries…
Then you have the 2015 season. In August we hear that Isaac has slimmed down from around 240 to 230. Some see this as a negative, but the general consensus is that it’s a good thing. If nothing else, it means he is working hard. We hear the he is competing for the starting job and we hear praise about his size and speed combination and rumors of a 3-RB package to help get him on the field more often. The pessimist, at this point, must increment his floor for Isaac’s ability upward. He is at least a competent RB, capable of competing with starting-caliber Big 10 RBs. Harbaugh wants to play him, that should tell you all you need to know.
On the other hand he doesn’t win the job. His completion was two classmates (Smith and Green) who had respectable but uninspiring freshman and sophomore years where they both started off and on. He does not beat them out.
So now, again, at this point it is reasonable to increment expectations downward. Even an optimist must note that Isaac does not appear to be anywhere near the level that historically great big UM backs like Wheatley and Thomas were by the time they were juniors.
So as we enter the season, you would think there would be convergence and settling on opinions. Is Isaac good – probably depends on your definition but clearly he is at least viable. Is he bad – probably not but clearly he isn’t great.…but still a consensus seems to be lacking.
Despite Smith having excellent production, people have already made up their minds on him and dream of something better. Despite Isaac getting few meaningful carries and his playing time being chipped away by a 2-star recruit from the high school across the street, there are still numerous calls for Isaac to get more opportunity to usurp the starter.
The starter gets hurt and Isaac gets the first carries. The optimist pleas have been answered, and you all know how this story ends.
The coaching staff says someone else is clearly #1 and they’ve said it since the start of the season. As the 2-star RB returns to health the coaches call the positional hierarch “solidifying” and then days later name him #2. Isaac wallows at 3rd (or 4th string)…and still the calls remain with some of the fan/optimists.
I wonder if people will still think Isaac is a great back loaded with untapped potential when he is a senior backup. It’s an interesting case of how prejudice and expectations guide our interpretation of reality.
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