Morning Roundup: February 22, 2020

Morning Roundup: February 22, 2020


February 22, 2020
Cesar Ruiz (image via Detroit News)

Mel Kiper, Jr. says Shea Patterson is ranked as an undrafted free agent (LINK).

Kiper also has Cesar Ruiz as a potential first rounder (LINK).

E.J. Holland interviewed Chris Evans about his return to the Michigan football program (LINK).

Hit the jump for more.

A little bit of news on Jordan Anthony:

I don’t know if this has anything to do with his time at Michigan, but former wideout Kekoa Crawford posted this on Twitter:

20 comments

  1. GKblue
    Comments: 347
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    GKblue
    Feb 22, 2020 at 10:11 AM

    IMHO Patterson might be later round or UDFA pick based on inconsistency and must find an offensive system where he could contribute. Seems everyone needs a QB or a backup or a project, to what expense are teams willing to gamble? How does he really grade out comparably in this class?

    I am a little surprised that Ruiz might go in the first round, partly because of the questionable number of teams that may have a rd one need for a center.

    Evans’ psych to return should be up there. I wonder most about where his reaction time and quickness are now and by the fall. He may contribute as a run or pass receiving third down back. I think he can be a leader for the team.

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1784
      Joined: 1/19/2016
      je93
      Feb 22, 2020 at 10:40 AM

      I don’t think Patterson gets drafted. Too much inconsistency on film, and his size/athleticism won’t earn any points at the combine

      I’m hopeful for Cesar, and have always liked behind the scenes stuff with him. I did get worried when fans pointed out footwork issues late 2018, and then he managed to trip over his own feet in ea of our OOC games 2019. His strong finish might be enough for MICHIGAN to have its one 1st Rounder of the year

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1784
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Feb 22, 2020 at 1:45 PM

        *Ruiz has great potential at Guard too. Now, Guards aren’t regularly taken early, but as stated, he’s only 20. Lots of potential there

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1331
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      WindyCityBlue
      Feb 22, 2020 at 11:41 AM

      Not that some teams don’t try it, but it’s really not a good percentage move to spend even a late round pick on a guy to be your backup QB. In the draft, go for a starter, or don’t bother. There are always plenty of other people’s failed starters floating around that you can pick up to hold a clipboard. That way you at least know you’re getting a guy with SOME NFL chops.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1784
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Feb 22, 2020 at 1:42 PM

        Not sure why this would be downvoted; it’s how GMs work, TBrady12 being a very rare exception

        • Thunder
          Comments: 3543
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Feb 22, 2020 at 2:13 PM

          Some people just have a knee-jerk reaction to downvote certain posters.

        • Avatar
          Comments: 1331
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          WindyCityBlue
          Feb 23, 2020 at 11:07 AM

          Yeah, I expected a few “Tom Brady says hello” comebacks, but again, talking about a percentage move here. Brady was a once in a lifetime stroke of luck. If you want to spend a sixth round pick every year on a QB, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, knock yourself out, but I suspect we’ll all be dead and buried before it happens again.

  2. Lanknows
    Comments: 5873
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Feb 22, 2020 at 12:15 PM

    I think Patterson has enough talent to be a late round pickup. With how critical QB is, you take your shots on guys who have potential.

    Ruiz in Round 1 is a little surprising, until you remember his youth. Already performing well but higher upside relative to most OL in the draft who are 2 years older than him. Ruiz can be an all-pro and has excelled where it counts – pass blocking.

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1331
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      WindyCityBlue
      Feb 23, 2020 at 11:15 AM

      Not sure where you saw NFL “potential” from Patterson last year. He’s a senior with a lot of game experience, and he’s still not an accurate passer, and his arm strength isn’t that great.

      As noted, if you’re playing the percentage, you take your shots at QB high in the draft (no later than round 2), because that’s where the vast majority of quality NFL starters come from.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 5873
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Feb 23, 2020 at 1:04 PM

        Is that true about vast majority? Where’s the evidence?

        Let’s assume you don’t dodge and prove your point – haha – is it more or less true than other positions?

        We’ll see about Patterson – he played like a 5-star.

        • Avatar
          Comments: 1331
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          WindyCityBlue
          Feb 23, 2020 at 10:18 PM

          Here are the QBs who played the most last year:
          Jameis Winston Rd 1 Pk 1
          Dak Prescott Rd 4 Pk 135
          Jared Goff Rd 1 Pk 1
          Philip Rivers Rd 1 pk 4
          Matt Ryan Rd 1 Pk 3
          Russell Wilson Rd 3 Pk 75
          Tom Brady Rd 6 Pk 199
          Derek Carr Rd 2 Pk 36
          Carson Wentz Rd 1 Pk 2
          Patrick Mahomes Rd 1 Pk 10
          Aaron Rodgers Rd 1 Pk 24
          Jimmy Garoppolo Rd 2 Pk 62
          Deshaun Watson Rd 1 Pk 12
          Baker Mayfield Rd 1 Pk 1
          Kyler Murray Rd 1 Pk 1
          Kirk Cousins Rd 4 Pk 102
          Ryan Fitzpatrick Rd 7 Pk 252
          Andy Dalton Rd 2 Pk 35
          Kyle Allen UDFA
          Gardner Minshew Rd 6 Pk 178
          Mitchell Tubisky Rd 1 Pk 2
          Lamar Jackson Rd 1 Pk 32
          Josh Allen Rd 1 Pk 7
          Daniel Jones Rd 1 Pk 6
          Sam Darnold Rd 1 Pk 3
          Drew Brees Rd 2 Pk 32
          Jacoby Brissett Rd 3 Pk 91
          Ryan TanneHill Rd 1 Pk 8
          Matthew Stafford Rd 1 Pk 1
          Joe Flacco Rd 1 Pk 18
          Mason Rudolph Rd 3 Pk 76
          Case Keenum UDFA
          Teddy Bridgewater Rd 1 Pk 32
          Dwayne Haskins Rd 1 Pk 15

          Rd 1-20
          Rd 2-4
          Rd 3-3
          Rd 4-2
          Rd 6-2
          Rd 7-1
          UDFA-2

          I know what rounds I’m putting my money on.

          But apparently you have nothing to justify your claim that Patterson has shown NFL potential.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 5873
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Feb 24, 2020 at 10:57 AM

            Good data. I commend you.

            What this shows is that higher draft picks are more likely to succeed but late round success occurs regularly. Which is what everyone already knows but not really relevant to your central point. Because it’s true for every position.

            Is this more or less true at QB than other positions?The question is if a position like LT, CB, or any other position likely to go in Round 1 is substantially different. Regardless of position, most 6th and 7th rounders end up out of the league within a 2 or 3 years. Right?

            It’s a longshot either way, and some will hit. Most will not. You’re better off with QB hitting than a MLB.

            For Patterson – My only data point is that he played like a 5 star. I don’t expect him to be a good NFL player. But I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he wasn’t worth a late round flier to some team who sees a productive 4-year starter with 5-star talent.

            • Avatar
              Comments: 1331
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              WindyCityBlue
              Feb 24, 2020 at 6:27 PM

              For the top 30 WRs in the NFL in receiving yards last year:

              1st Rd-9
              2nd Rd-10
              3rd Rd-9
              4th Rd-0
              5th Rd-1
              6th Rd-0
              7th Rd-1

              That’s very roughly the #1 receiver on just about every team. I suspect if you went further down the list, you’d find more players that went later, but even for the most productive guys, availability spreads out significantly more into the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Taking a WR in the first round isn’t necessarily a DUMB move, depending on your needs and the depth of the draft, but you can build a very good WR corp from rounds 2-3.

              Top 15 TEs in receiving yards in 2019:

              1st rd-3
              2nd rd-4
              3rd rd-5
              4th rd-1
              5th rd-1
              6th rd-1

              Taking a TE in the first round IS kinda dumb, confirmed by the fact that the Lions (who never saw a dumb draft move they didn’t wanna try) did it last year.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 5873
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Feb 25, 2020 at 11:57 AM

              @WCB

              To really get at this question we’d have to incorporate demand — look at some sort of ‘success rate’ by round and position. Because there are a whole lot of QBs getting taken in R1. The reason for that is obvious, but the effect is that relatively fewer of other positions go in R1 so they slip into 2nd and 3rd.

              For example, OG rarely go in Round 1 so if you did the same exercise you’d find very few. But maybe the ones that DO get picked there are very successful at a high rate.

              —————–

              Even though I agree with a lot of what you are saying I don’t think it’s so cut and dry. QBs are so important that it makes sense to grab them in Round 1 but you also have to factor in how ready they are. If you aren’t getting starting-caliber play from your 1st rounder you are falling behind – because most other teams are.

              With everyone focused on QBs you can find bargains in Round 1 at other positions – like Devin Bush and a lot of guys fall to Round 2 who maybe shouldn’t if QB wasn’t everything.

              Given the data it seems like not the wisest move to grab a QB in R3 or R4 though of course there are some exceptions.

              For the late rounds I think you’re rolling the dice either way. If you see a sliver of potential in someone it’s worth a 6th or 7th round pick to bring them to camp and see if you can develop a backup or even a cheap starter. I could see that for Patterson but acknowledge it’s not all that likely.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 408
            Joined: 12/24/2016
            INTJohn
            Feb 25, 2020 at 10:33 AM

            Patterson = XFL or Canada or not at all.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 5873
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Feb 24, 2020 at 3:27 PM

          https://nationalfootballpost.com/probabilities-of-the-nfl-draft/

          For all positions:

          The probability (of lasting 5 years in the league) declines rapidly beginning late in the third round

          The chances of drafting a five-year starter decline rapidly after the first 24 selections.

          The chances of drafting a player who wins post-season honors is remote after the first 73 selections.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 5873
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Feb 24, 2020 at 3:39 PM

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#61242a137495

          This is dated but speaks to the top heavy distribution of high draft picks as starters across all positions.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 1331
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            WindyCityBlue
            Feb 24, 2020 at 6:36 PM

            Well, I doubt there are any positions other than kickers where the prime rounds for finding starting talent are as late as 5-6. But there are always needs for reserves and situational players too. But for QBs, the curve of successful players is jammed heavily into the first round, while for other positions, it spreads out more into 2-3.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 5873
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Feb 23, 2020 at 1:16 PM

        Top 5 in QBR this year included a 3rd and 4th rounder. Only one was drafted in the top 30. Multiple NFL 2019 starters came from the 6th and 7th round.

  3. Avatar
    Comments: 408
    Joined: 12/24/2016
    INTJohn
    Feb 22, 2020 at 12:17 PM

    I’m thinkin if Patterson really wants to go pro, he needs to work a helluva lot on both his Long & short driving, putting on the green as well as his sand trap chips………
    Maybe he could then be a PGA Caddie………..
    Jus sayin………….intjohn

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