Preview: Michigan at Indiana

Preview: Michigan at Indiana


November 5, 2020
Michael Penix, Jr. (image via IndyStar)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH DEFENSE
It’s too early for advanced stats, so Michigan is #25 in rushing average (204 yards/game) and still #4 in yards per carry (6.28) despite an overall poor effort last week against Michigan State. The Wolverines did not play well up front against an attacking, downhill defense, and the team may be without its only returning starter, right tackle Jalen Mayfield, due to an injury. Hassan Haskins leads the team at 9.9 yards/carry with 3 touchdowns. Indiana is #80 in rush defense (185.5 yards allowed/game) and tied for #73 in yards allowed per carry (4.36). The leading tacklers are junior middle linebacker Micah McFadden (6’2″, 235) and junior safety Jamar Johnson (6’1″, 197) with 16 takedowns each.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.

PASS OFFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #33 in passing offense (262.5 yards/game) but tied for #100 in passing touchdowns with just 1 so far, albeit that’s just through two games. Starting quarterback Joe Milton is #67 in passing efficiency and #39 in completion percentage. The vast majority of his completions have been very short with bubble screens, arrow routes, and slants. Downfield throws have been almost completely off the mark. Michigan is only allowing 1 sack per game so far, but that’s because Milton has barely been able to inch back to the line of scrimmage on a variety of scrambles. Giles Jackson, Ronnie Bell, and Roman Wilson are 1-2-3 in receptions with 9, 8, and 7, respectively; Bell and Wilson are both averaging 15.0 yards/catch, while Jackson is under 9.0. I am concerned about Michigan’s protection, where left guard Chuck Filiaga and backup right tackle Karsen Barnhart struggled once Mayfield went down. Indiana is #19 in passing defense (182 yards allowed/game) and #24 in passing efficiency defense. Sophomore cornerback Tiawan Mullen (5’10”, 176) surprisingly leads the team with 2.5 sacks through two games. Junior cornerback Jaylin Williams (6’0″, 179) leads the team with 2 interceptions. The Hoosiers play mostly a two-high safety defense and are pretty predictable with their coverages, so I will be interested to see how much they try to confuse Milton, who has not shown that he can move through his progressions when defenses switch up their looks.
Advantage: Indiana

RUSH DEFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #35 in rush defense (127.5 yards allowed/game) and #20 in yards allowed per carry (3.23). Weakside linebacker Josh Ross leads the team with 17 tackles, followed by defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and Brad Hawkins (15 each). The defensive tackles have been playing okay, and I think Hutchinson has been playing very well against the run, but I have concerns about a thin linebacking corps. Middle linebacker Cam McGrone has been playing with a cast and left last game with an injury, replaced by walk-on Adam Shibley. Things are dicey at the second level, but safety Daxton Hill is an eraser at the third level. Indiana is #112 in rushing offense (75 yards allowed/game) and #113 in yards per carry (2.27). Junior running back Stevie Scott III (6’2″, 231) is a load, but he only averages 3.37 yards per carry and doesn’t have breakaway speed. Quarterback Michael Penix (6’3″, 218) had a diving, reaching 2-point conversion to beat Penn State, but he has only rushed 10 times for 2 yards on the season.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #80 in passing defense (260 yards/game) and #68 in passing efficiency defense. They got destroyed by Michigan State’s young but quick outside receivers, who torched cornerbacks Gemon Green and Vincent Gray for roughly 300 of MSU’s 321 passing yards. Most of those big gains came on quick fades where quarterback Rocky Lombardi did not have to hang on to the ball for long, and Gray (in particular) simply didn’t have the athleticism to keep up. The Hoosiers are #82 in passing offense (204 yards/game) and #67 in passing efficiency. Penix is completing 58.1% of his passes for 6.6 yards/attempt this season. His leading receiver is slot guy Whop Philyor (5’11”, 180) with 10 catches for 173 yards and 1 touchdown. One good thing for Michigan is that Indiana redshirt junior left tackle Caleb Jones (6’8″, 362) and right tackle Matthew Bedford (6’6″, 314) look . . . bad. They’re stiff and lean too much. Michigan defensive ends Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson are both big mismatches against those tackles if, if, – IF!!! – the defensive backs can cover for, say, more than 2 seconds. If I were Indiana, I would try to get Philyor matched up against Gray (or Green). And if I were Michigan, I would try to put a safety over the top of Philyor or just have Hill follow him around.
Advantage: Indiana if Don Brown insists on playing man coverage all day; Michigan if Don Brown isn’t a totally crazy human

ROSTER NOTES

  • Indiana players offered by Michigan include: RB Tim Baldwin, RB Sampson James, DB Josh Sanguinetti, WR Rashawn Williams
  • Indiana players from the State of Michigan include: RB David Ellis (Chippewa Valley), QB Will Jontz (Brighton), DT Christian Love (Detroit Country Day), OL Peter Schulz (Brother Rice), DB Lem Watley-Neely (Harper Woods), WR Rashawn Williams (Detroit King)
  • Indiana running backs coach/associate head coach Mike Hart and offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Nick Sheridan both played at Michigan
  • Indiana athletic performance coach Chris Allen worked as a strength and conditioning coach at Michigan from 2008-2010 under Rich Rodriguez and Mike Barwis
  • Indiana senior assistant athletic director for football performance Aaron Wellman was the strength and conditioning coach at Michigan from 2011-2014 under Brady Hoke

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .

  • On November 23, 2019, Michigan beat Indiana, 39-14
  • QB Shea Patterson completed 20/32 passes for 366 yards, a school record-tying 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception
  • WR Nico Collins caught 8 passes for 165 yards and 3 touchdowns, including a 76-yarder
  • Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey (now at Northwestern) went 17/29 for 217 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception
  • Indiana RB Stevie Scott ran 13 times for 54 yards and 1 touchdown

PREDICTIONS

  • Defensively, Don Brown will have more bullets in the chamber when it comes to coverage, but I don’t know that he will need them. I am not impressed with Indiana’s outside receivers, and Gray/Green might be okay as long as they don’t end up matched up with Philyor.
  • We see more two-high safety looks from Michigan.
  • I was this close to predicting an Indiana victory early in the week, but after watching Indiana play a little more, I think Michigan wins because I think they will be able to establish the run game.
  • If Jalen Mayfield misses the game, all bets are off, because I think the Hoosiers will be able to make Milton nervous in the pocket.
  • Michigan 28, Indiana 24

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