Preview: Michigan vs. Ohio State

RUSH OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan had a solid rushing effort last week against Northwestern and still ranks just #71 nationally (159.6 yards/game) and #62 in yards per carry (4.47). Kalel Mullings (12 carries, 92 yards, 3 touchdowns against Northwestern) is now up to 11 scores on the year, while Donovan Edwards (10 carries, 65 yards, 1 TD last week) had his second-highest rushing average of the year. Backup quarterback Alex Orji has 50 carries for 228 yards and 1 touchdown this year, but has two DNPs in the past five weeks, including against Northwestern. I would think Orji would get a few snaps just to give Davis Warren a breather from what will probably be a tough day of avoiding the pass rush, but maybe not. Meanwhile, Ohio State is #3 in rush defense (90 yards allowed/game) and yards allowed per carry (2.7). They have allowed more than 3.75 yards/carry to just two teams, Iowa and #1 Oregon. Junior LB Sonny Styles (6’4″, 235) leads the team with 71 tackles, followed by senior LB Cody Simon (6’2″, 235) with 65. Senior DT Tyleik Williams (6’3″, 327) is a force in the middle of the defense with 25 tackles and 5 tackles for loss, and senior DE J.T. Tuimoloau (6’5″, 269) leads the team with 11 TFL. Northwestern did a good job of stopping the run in the first half last week, but they ran out of steam in the second half and gave up. I don’t think Ohio State is going to do that this year.
Advantage: Ohio State

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PASS OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #128 in passing offense (140.1 yards/game) and #132 in yards per attempt (5.6). But they’re all the way up at #125 in passing efficiency, so yay! Warren had one of his best passing games of the year (26/35, 195 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), but it was mostly dink-and-dunk stuff. To top it off, top receiving target Colston Loveland (56 catches, 582 yards, 5 TD this year) didn’t play in the second half and is questionable for this week. Right tackle Evan Link has been awful in pass protection this year and will face Tuimoloau (6.0 sacks) and 6’5″, 260 lb. senior DE Jack Sawyer (4.5). Michigan will have to do its best to chip or help with tight ends and running backs, because the offensive line can’t hold up on straight dropbacks against this unit. The Buckeyes are #6 in sacks per game (3.18). On the back end, Ohio State is #4 in pass defense (151.7 yards allowed/game), #9 in yards allowed per attempt (5.9), and #11 in passing efficiency defense. They have good safeties, including sophomore Alabama transfer Caleb Downs (6’0″, 205) and fifth year senior Lathan Ransom (6’1″, 210), but the cornerbacks have been so-so; senior Denzel Burke (6’1″, 193) and redshirt junior Ole Miss transfer Davison Igbinosun (6’2″, 193) have 2 interceptions each to lead a team that is #94 in interceptions per game. It’s a good enough defense to smother whoever Michigan throws out there, and Michigan’s only real chance for success is to make sure Loveland can play.
Advantage: Ohio State

RUSH DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH OFFENSE
The Wolverines are #4 in yards allowed per game (94) and #12 in yards allowed per carry (3.13). In a sense, they seem to be hitting their stride over the past couple weeks, allowing just 50 yards total on 53 carries against Indiana and Northwestern. Linebackers Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham lead the team in tackles with 74 and 60, respectively. Defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant may be the best DT tandem in the country, so running the ball in standard ways might be tough; where Michigan has seemed the most vulnerable against the run has been on draws or 3rd-and-long situations where they get caught running games. Michigan also lacks depth on the interior, so if the defense has to spend a lot of time on the field, that run defense might soften in the fourth quarter. To counter that defensive tackle duo, Ohio State probably has the best 1-2 punch at running back in the country with junior Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins (6’0″, 219) and senior Treveyon Henderson (5’10”, 208); they have combined for 233 carries, 1489 yards, and 14 touchdowns, and while those numbers aren’t as impressive as the combos of Blake Corum/Donovan Edwards/Hassan Haskins over the past few years, keep in mind that Ohio State doesn’t run the ball nearly as much as those Michigan teams. Quarterback Will Howard, a Kansas State transfer, doesn’t put up a ton of yards on the ground (121 on 68 attempts), but he is a capable runner and has 7 touchdowns on the season. He had 364 yards rushing as a freshman in 2020 and put up 351 last year. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly certainly knows how to make his quarterbacks factors in the run game, and when the ball gets near the end zone, don’t be surprised to see Howard used in those +1 runs. I think Michigan can hold up early in the game, but I expect them to get gassed as the game goes along.
Advantage: Ohio State

PASS DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #72 in passing defense (222.3 yards allowed/game), #39 in yards allowed per attempt (6.6), and #55 in defensive passing efficiency. While the last six quarters have been very good for the defense (the second half against Indiana and the whole game against Northwestern), Indiana has been a team playing above its talent level and Northwestern just isn’t very good. Perhaps that will give Michigan some confidence, but Ohio State is on a different level, even if they’re not at the level of the Dwayne Haskins and C.J. Stroud years when it comes to throwing the ball. The big key here is whether All-American CB Will Johnson can play, but there are rumors that turf toe will keep him out of yet another game. Meanwhile, Albany transfer Aamir Hall and converted nickel Zeke Berry started at corner last week with Johnson out and sophomore CB Jyaire Hill oddly not playing until the fourth quarter and wearing #35 instead of his normal #20 when he did get on the field. Michigan is #21 in sacks per game (2.82), led by DE Josaiah Stewart with 8.5 and backup DE T.J. Guy with 5.5. Ohio State is #20 in sacks allowed per game (1.18), but they have had to shuffle things around to replace their starting left tackle and starting center over the past couple weeks. The Buckeyes are oozing with wide receiver talent, led by 6’3″, 215 lb. superstar freshman Jeremiah “J.J.” Smith (52 catches, 899 yards, 9 TD) and senior Emeka Egbuka (6’1″, 205) with 56 catches for 692 yards and 9 TD; even #3 receiver Carnell Tate (35 catches, 525 yards, 4 TD) would be the top receiver on Michigan’s roster, from both a talent and a statistical perspective. Quarterback Will Howard is completing 74% of his passes for 9.6 yards/attempt, 26 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.
Advantage: Ohio State

ROSTER NOTES

• Ohio State players recruited by Michigan include: OL Deontae Armstrong, OL Devontae Armstrong, CB Denzel Burke, WR Mylan Graham, DT Ty Hamilton, CB Jordan Hancock, RB Treveyon Henderson, DE Eddrick Houston, CB Davison Igbinosun, DT Tywone Malone, S Jaylen McClain, LB Mitchell Melton, OL Luke Montgomery, RB James Peoples, LB Gabe Powers, S Lathan Ransom, DE Jack Sawyer, QB Julian Sayin, CB Aaron Scott, CB Lorenzo Styles, LB Sonny Styles, WR Carnell Tate, CB Bryce West, LB Kourt Williams, DT Tyleik Williams
• Ohio State LB Joey Velazquez played his first five years at Michigan before transferring to OSU for 2024
• Former Michigan OL coach Tim Drevno is an offensive analyst for Ohio State

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…

• On November 25, 2023, Michigan beat Ohio State 30-24
• QB J.J. McCarthy completed 16/20 passes for 148 yards and 1 touchdown
• RB Blake Corum ran 22 times for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns
• TE Colston Loveland caught 5 passes for 88 yards
• CB Will Johnson and S Rod Moore each had 1 interception
• Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. caught 5 passes for 118 yards and 1 touchdown
• Ohio State RB Treveyon Henderson ran 19 times for 60 yards

PREDICTION

• Ohio State 38, Michigan 17

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