Now that the season is over for Michigan, it’s a good time to go back and look at my predictions from September 1, 2016, to see how close I came to being right. Or to see how embarrassingly terrible I did. You can find the predictions post here (LINK).
LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: De’Veon Smith, 870 yards
Actual: De’Veon Smith, 846 yards
Analysis: Okay, that was pretty damn accurate to start.
LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Jehu Chesson, 900 yards
Actual: Amara Darboh, 852 yards
Analysis: I screwed the pooch on this one. Chesson ended up with 500 yards. He really didn’t look like the same player that he was in the second half of 2015. Maybe it was the knee injury, or maybe it was a lack of chemistry with new quarterback Wilton Speight. Either way, it was a disappointing year for Chesson.
LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: Ben Gedeon, 80 tackles
Actual: Ben Gedeon, 100 tackles
Analysis: I got the player right, but Gedeon played more than I expected. Even though Michigan didn’t have a great option at middle linebacker behind him, I thought the Wolverines would play someone else in blowouts or just to give the guy a break. That didn’t happen much, though. He was an iron man out there, and I guess when the next guy on the depth chart is converted walk-on defensive end Mike Wroblewski, you probably want to stick with Gedeon most of the time.
Hit the jump for more of a look back at Michigan’s season and the predictions I posted here.
LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Taco Charlton, 9 sacks
Actual: Taco Charlton, 10 sacks
Analysis: If only he wouldn’t have made that sack in the bowl game . . . But seriously, Charlton had a great season and looked downright dominant at times.
LEADING INTERCEPTOR
Prediction: Dymonte Thomas, 4 interceptions
Actual: Channing Stribling, 4 interceptions
Analysis: Teams didn’t test the middle of the field as much as I thought they would, but maybe that has to do with the pass rush. It’s easier to get rid of the ball outside or throw a bomb near the sideline than it is to sit in the pocket when you have Ryan Glasgow, Chris Wormley, and Maurice Hurst, Jr. running at your face. Regardless, Stribling had a good year, and Thomas’s lone pick came on a screen pass in the flat against Illinois.
ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Jake Butt, Jehu Chesson, Jourdan Lewis, Jabrill Peppers
Actual: Jake Butt, Taco Charlton, Jourdan Lewis, Erik Magnuson, Jabrill Peppers, Chris Wormley
Analysis: Erik Magnuson was a pleasant surprise on the First Team unit. The other guys were somewhat expected or understandable. I didn’t think Charlton or Wormley would make it, mainly because there are other good players in the conference that I thought would get more playing time since Michigan had such a good rotation. Meanwhile, Chesson’s play fell off from 2015, so he didn’t have a shot.
ALL-AMERICAN
Prediction: Jake Butt, Jourdan Lewis
Actual: Jake Butt, Jourdan Lewis, Jabrill Peppers
Analysis: Peppers didn’t have a great season at any one individual season, but he did fill up the stat sheet on defense, offense, and special teams. Butt and Lewis did their thing.
LEADING SCORER (NON-KICKER)
Prediction: Jehu Chesson
Actual: Khalid Hill
Analysis: I don’t think anyone predicted that Hill would lead the team in scoring, but he had 10 rushing TDs and 3 receiving TDs to total 78 yards. Chesson finished 10th on the team with 18 points on 3 TDs.
BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Wilton Speight
Actual: Wilton Speight, Khalid Hill (tie)
Analysis: Speight had a good season, but he struggled against the good opponents he faced. He deserves some consideration for this “award,” but that’s partly because the expectations were low to begin. Hill was the #6 non-kicker scorer in the Big Ten. Not many people knew his name outside of Michigan’s sphere, but he became a fun story as the season wore along.
BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Dymonte Thomas
Actual: Taco Charlton
Analysis: With increased playing time, Charlton’s production spiked. He had already been playing well in past seasons, but it’s tough to pick a true breakout player when most of the defense has already played a lot of snaps.
MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Kyle Kalis
Actual: Kyle Kalis
Analysis: Kalis started off playing pretty well in 2016, but that wore off. In the end he played about as well as he had in past seasons, which is to say “very average.”
MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Ben Gedeon
Actual: Jabrill Peppers
Analysis: Perhaps this is harsh, but Peppers was the #3 recruit in the country and a Heisman finalist. In between, he flashed a lot of ability but disappeared at times. He was third on the team in tackles (71), second in tackles for loss (15), eight in sacks (3.5), and fifth in interceptions (1). He also had 0 pass breakups despite being a hybrid linebacker/safety, which is fewer than the likes of Lavert Hill, Bryan Mone, and Ryan Glasgow, not to mention Jeremy Clark, who only played in four games.
REGULAR SEASON RECORD
Prediction: 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State.
Actual: 10-2 with losses to Ohio State and Iowa.
Analysis: I was tempted to predict a loss to Iowa at Kinnick Stadium at night, but I just couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger. Michigan was the better team this season, but several players picked that night to play their worst game of the year. The OSU loss was expected, even though it took some clutch plays and questionable officiating for OSU to get the win.
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I really enjoy that you hold yourself accountable and revisit the predictions after the fact. So thanks.
Deveon Smith – Kind of a bummer that you nailed this one. I would have enjoyed more Evans and I think so would you.
Ben Gedeon – Workman like, and thank God he gave us everything he had. Fortunately our strength on the DL bailed us out. Most of us were really worried about the LBs.
Khalid Hill – Every UM roster should have one!
Taco – Every bit as good as advertised. Finally played up to his potential (or nearly so), and will be fun to follow on Sundays.
Wilton Speight – Can he stay ahead of Peters next year? I think so, but he needs to stay healthy.
Darboh – Was always my favorite. When he dropped the ball we were all surprised, admit it.
Kalis – just couldn’t meet early expectations.
Peppers -Probably my favorite play of his all season was the punt return for a TD that got called back. Great athlete, where will he fit as a pro?
My most disappointing things this year were play calling predictability, and continued frustration with the OL.
Speight could have led/and read his receivers better for sure, maybe next year with experience? I think his suspect arm strength was partly as a result of injuries.
Once again thanks, it helps us get through the long off season.
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Yeah, that Peppers punt return TD that got called back was the best play of his career, IMO. It’s too bad it didn’t count.
Thanks!
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Solid predictions:
– no one would have guessed that Chesson would disappear like that after playing like an AA the second half of last season
– Khalid Hill was a bit of a revelation but I think that ESPN labeling him as a “touchdown vulture” is true. Good player, excellent when you need that 1 yard, but nothing earth shattering.
– yeah when Kalis and Pipkins were running their mouths before setting foot on campus, I was a bit worried, and unfortunately things didn’t really work out for either one. I am hoping that they can scratch our a career in the NFL but I am not betting for that to happen.
– that Iowa loss was a perfect storm, very initially I thought we would drop 3 games, Iowa, MSU, and OSU… but MSU was decimated by injuries, and after having physically dominated Wisconsin, I seriously though that we would handle Iowa comfortably. But credit must be given, Iowa was hungry and motivated while we were misfiring and quite frankly unprepared for how physical Iowa was. I just had a really bad feeling that whole game after the safety. Reminded me of that Northwestern game years ago when A-Train fumbled.
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Most disappointing offensive player vs. most disappointing defensive player …
This “award” is really a comparison of pre-season expectations against actual-season results. So I’m left to wonder where the pre-season expectations for Kalis came from. Was there any real reason to expect he’d take it to another level this year, other than it being another year? I would thought Chesson would have been the most disappointing offensive player given the pre-season expectations.
Regarding Peppers … tend to agree, but I temper that with an admission of my own lack of understanding of the *totality* of the defensive structure. Peppers was not a soul-crushing presence on the defensive side of the ball. But was his presence over there a net-positive for the unit? Is there some evidence to suggest that opposing teams tended to play *away* from Peppers? If you imagined the 2016 season minus Peppers on defense, what changes?
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There were off-season rumblings that Kalis had turned a corner. And early in the year, it looked like he had made some strides. Unfortunately, that didn’t last. I don’t know if teams figured him out, if he got worn down, or what.
I do think Peppers’s presence was a net positive. I mean, his numbers were pretty good overall. I don’t think opposing teams ran away from him. Sometimes they ran at him or threw at him. Without Peppers I think you probably would have seen someone like Dymonte Thomas or Tyree Kinnel playing more in his Viper spot. I don’t think they would have left that job to Furbush and Watson for an entire season.
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If Clark was healthy they probably play a lot more pure nickel with Lewis inside. Perhaps more aggressive play calling, safeties closer to the line, etc.
Peppers versatility was a game changer, but I think some teams figured out how to take advantage of his relative weaknesses. He wasn’t great when you ran right at him and he wasn’t great if covering wide receivers one-on-one — but between these two extremes he covered a ton of ground (literally and metaphorically).
Great player. Can’t be replaced. Michigan will have to change what it does, probably closer to what Brown did at BC.
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Absolutely there were reasons to think Kalis could have turned it around. It ‘clicks’ for a lot of people in their final year. Urgency, finality, all that.
Furthermore you had the Drevno-faith, which I think he earned, and the idea that after a full year + of coaching in the gap-scheme that transition costs would be behind Kalis and the rest of the guys.
Not so much, in either case, but the reasoning was plausible.
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Kudos to you for the lookback. Enjoyable read and overall your predictions were pretty strong.
I would say Chesson is the most disappointing player by a good bit. Michigan didn’t have a ton of playmakers on offense and for the only regular starter who qualified as a candidate to be so mediocre was huge.
Defensively I don’t think it’s fair to include Peppers as a disappointment. Then again, it’s not so easy to identify a better candidate. Gary was projected by many to be a starter (including Sam Webb). That wasn’t close to being true. Lewis was expected to be a lock down guy, and he played very very well, but good teams were not afraid to go right at him. And of course he gave up the late TD that Michigan the Orange Bowl. I’ll go with Lewis, despite an overall excellent year.
Breakout player on O was Magnuson or Evans. Mags had a really strong year, marred by the rest of the OL struggling. Significant improvement from the year before. I wonder if Michigan doesn’t regret putting him at LT. As for Evans he looks like a star. This goes back to Deveon Smith being a very good player. Evans should be a difference-maker if the OL ever gets right.
Hill was fine but he made blocking errors and continued to split snaps with Poggi, who is unexceptional in all facets of the game. I never doubted he could carry the ball a few times a game and he wasn’t used as a pass threat as much as I hoped. Other than the goalline Michigan didn’t deploy the FB as a threat often enough for my liking.
Breakout player on D is tough. I was doubtful about his fit at WDE but Charlton proved any doubters wrong and finished the year so so strong. But the first half of the season he was still rounding into form. Stribling is a candidate here as he fully lived up to the offseason hype and quieted any and all doubters. He was solid in the past but exceptional in 2016. McCray and Peppers have to come in for some praise here as well. Our LB unit fit into Brown’s scheme so well. Yes, there were some blunders – some at bad times – but those guys made plays again and again all year. Also have to consider Winovich – so productive in the limited role he had – but to draw snaps on THAT DL is truly impressive.
Since so little was expected of him, I’ll go with Winovich as the breakout. Everybody else was already pretty good or (in McCray’s case) hurt.
But the real answer for overall breakout player is Speight. He was so bad last year. If he makes the same leap in 2017 we have an NFL QB on our hands.
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I don’t know what the deal was with Chesson. I hesitate to say he dropped off, because I think at least some of it had to do with Speight. Some of it probably had to do with the knee injury, too. So did he play poorly, or did Speight just do a poor job of getting him the ball? We heard all off-season that Speight had built a great chemistry with Amara Darboh, not Chesson, so sometimes it just comes down to how the players work together. I don’t know the answer. I just wonder if Chesson was the same guy in 2016 as he was in 2015 but the offense couldn’t capitalize.
I don’t think Smith was a “very good player” but I don’t want to argue that again. I’m just voicing my disagreement.
Hill did make some blocking errors, but he also had some tremendous blocks. On some of those lead sweeps, he took out two or three guys. He’s a better run blocker than pass blocker.
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I think we’ll never know about Jehu. I can’t recall anyone else dropoff like that after rising up. Maybe Roundtree but his stuff was all system-based.
I have to go all the way back to Maurice Taylor in basketball – who was awesome as a freshman and then went into an extended NBA audition afterwards.
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Hill had lots of highlights but wasn’t quite there as an everydown player. I expect more improvement next year as he settles in at FB.
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No sense rehashing Smith stuff but his NFL-interview process seems to be going damn well so far…
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From what I’ve seen, they’re seeing exactly what we know he possesses: He’s a good blocker, a sturdy runner, and he’s slow.
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That’s a (not unexpected from you) undersell of Smith. According to Andy Staples:
Smith… has looked more elusive than he did in Ann Arbor. He also has proven he can catch. Add those traits to his blocking ability and his familiarity with pro-style protections after playing two seasons for Jim Harbaugh, and Smith suddenly looks like a mid-round pick a team can plug in immediately. And if the line in front of him is good enough, Smith could wind up on one of those lists [of NFL leading rushers].
Maybe that’s fluff and maybe Smith doesn’t go in the middle rounds but that’s a taste of the impression he’s making on people.
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I hadn’t seen that from Staples, but it wasn’t an undersell as much as a summary. I mentioned that he was a good blocker. If he looks more elusive than he did in four years in Ann Arbor, then congratulations to him, but that’s an odd thing to have suddenly appear.
I think that last sentence (“could end up on one of those lists”) could be said about almost any running back prospect.
I’m not saying he won’t get drafted…but nothing there is surprising except that he suddenly became elusive.
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I think if he goes in the mid rounds of the NFL draft that would be surprising to most Michigan fans. Smith’s been a bit of a whipping boy to fans for the last 2 years. For him to get drafted that high would tell you fans are wrong to blame Smith for the running game’s troubles. Furthermore it would tell you the gripes about speed, while valid, were missing the point.
It’s a big IF though, Staples opinion notwithstanding. I would not be surprised if Smith got drafted late and had a successful NFL career, but I would be fairly surprised if he got drafted in the mid rounds.
Likewise, if Braden, Kalis, and Magnuson all get drafted I think all the fan gripes about the OL talent would have to get reconsidered also. Something tells me that won’t happen.
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I don’t think where a guy gets drafted proves anyone right or wrong. If he gets drafted in the 4th round and proceeds to be ineffective in the NFL, then that’s probably in line with what a lot of people think.
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Have to call you out on consistency here – you argued you were ‘right’ about Mike Cox on the basis of him playing in the NFL even though he had no success there (or at UMass for that matter).
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It’s not inconsistent at all. I said Mike Cox deserved more playing time, and he sat on the bench behind the likes of Vincent Smith, who never got a sniff from the NFL. Cox ended up in the NFL.
If Smith gets drafted in the middle rounds, it doesn’t make him better than Isaac, Evans, etc. What if Isaac gets picked in the middle rounds next year? What if Evans becomes a 2nd rounder? What if Evans is First Team All-Big Ten? If those other guys follow in the footsteps of Smith and get all but forgotten after college, then you might have an argument.
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The guys that play are usually better than the guys that don’t.
V. Smith was a better RB than Cox, who got drafted to return kicks.
D.Smith is better than all those guys, with the possible exception of Evans who was 3 years younger.
Either the NFL is relevant or it isn’t.
Yes, if Ty Isaac gets drafted in the middle rounds next year and Smith is undrafted and never plays an NFL down that will be evidence that Harbaugh, Wheatley, Drevno and company got it wrong.
I don’t think that will happen though.
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I don’t really know why you’re pursuing this argument. Your argument is based on a hypothetical, but the whole situation requires even more hypotheticals to be proven true.
The NFL matters to me. I’ve argued that repeatedly, and it factors into the TTB Ratings. It matters.
But the Smith stuff is relative to the other backs on the roster at the time. Saying “Smith haters are proven wrong if he gets drafted in the middle rounds” is incomplete, because “Smith haters” (or whatever you said) is very vague. If people said he won’t get drafted, then yeah, they’re wrong. If they said he sucks, then sure, maybe they’re wrong. If they said, “He’s not as good as Chris Evans,” then you don’t have a conclusive answer right now. Because Evans could be a 2nd rounder and turn into the next LeSean McCoy.
Smith getting drafted doesn’t prove anyone wrong. It’s just a data point.
This is partly why I do the reviews of recruiting classes. Because looking back at guys after five or six or eight years is way more conclusive than looking back after three or four.
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I would define the people I am talking about, “haters” if you will, as the ones who harped on the weakness of Smith’s game (speed) and call for him to be benched.
You are right that Smith getting drafted isn’t “proof” – but it is very strong evidence.
But yes of course all of this is entirely preliminary and still mostly hypothetical. We can talk about it now because no one will remember or care very much, just like no one will remember or care about the V.Smith vs. M.Shaw debate (that I won! Thanks Brady Hoke!)
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I think most people to not expect him to play in the NFL. Too slow. Put in Green Isaac Walker Evans instead.
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I haven’t seen anybody call him slow.
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when the NFL scouts say things like “he is not the fastest runner” that is a nice way of saying that he is slow… and by NFL standards Smith is slow
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By college standards too!
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The issue has never been IF Smith is slow. It’s the extent to which it matters that he isn’t.
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