Mailbag: Why would Denard change positions?

Tag: Denard Robinson


15Jan 2011
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Mailbag: Why would Denard change positions?

Denard Robinson: Faster than a horse.

Thanks for the blog, which I enjoy. As you are clearly knowledgeable about football, I was surprised by the following comment:

“My initial reaction is to expect that Robinson will transfer, perhaps to Pitt, where former Michigan offensive coordinator Calvin Magee has alighted. He could go to Pittsburgh, sit out 2011, and have two years of eligibility to play quarterback. In my opinion, the best chance Hoke has to retain Robinson is to make a pitch for Robinson to become a running back or wide receiver.”It seems to me that if Robinson stays, he simply must be a quarterback. Otherwise, with Forcier gone, Michigan would be down to one scholarship quarterback, which is clearly unacceptable.

As of now, there are no QB commits in the 2011 class, and at this late date, I suspect the best Hoke could get is a mid-range three-star who will show up in August unprepared for Division I football. If Robinson transfers, we will have to live with that. But if Robinson stays, I cannot imagine that the coaches would choose to hand the job to Gardner, with an anonymous true-freshman three-star kid as his backup.

Let’s assume that Gardner would beat out Robinson in an open competition (not at all obvious to me, but I’ll run with it). You still need two guys ready to play the position. QB is hard enough to learn when you practice it full-time. I can’t imagine that Robinson would have be able to learn a new playbook, get fully prepared to back up Gardner, and have any significant amount of time left to practice other another position that he has never played before.

On top of all that, Robinson seems to want to play QB. I doubt that he would survive a whole season at running back, given his propensity for injury, and he has no history catching the ball. But even if Robinson wanted and were suited to another position, the lack of depth at QB pretty much precludes that idea.

Again: love the blog. I just wonder what on earth you were thinking when you suggested a position switch for Denard. It seems to me the world’s most impractical idea.

Best regards, Marc

Here’s my thought process on the matter…

Denard is an excellent runner. He’s a mediocre thrower and I’m not sure he has the ability to play quarterback in an offense that’s something other than an option offense where he’s a frequent running threat.  His mechanics are iffy, his decision making is iffy, and his 62.5% completion percentage belies his scattershot arm.  There’s a frustrating lack of accuracy on short throws from Robinson that often prevents his receivers from doing much with the ball once it hits their hands – and that’s to say One could point to Roy Roundtree’s frustrating drops – especially in the second half of the season – as a reason that Robinson’s completion percentage should be higher, but I would argue that Robinson’s running ability created a significant amount of wide open, easy catches (see Terrence Robinson’s catch against UConn, Roundtree’s touchdown against Mississippi State, and Roundtree’s long touchdown against Illinois for just a few examples).

I don’t think I said this in the other day’s post, but I expect that Brady Hoke will recruit one or more quarterbacks in the Class of 2011. They probably won’t be top-tier guys, but they’ll be quarterbacks nonetheless. That would leave Devin Gardner, perhaps Tate Forcier (if he’s reinstated), and a freshman or two.

I believe Gardner is a better fit for a pro-style offense than Rodriguez’s zone read option. Gardner isn’t a great runner. I think he’s a pocket guy who can scramble. He would be great out of the shotgun, but he’s not going to break big runs like Denard, Pat White, etc. I won’t say that Rodriguez and Gardner were a mismatch, but I think Gardner would be more effective when deployed like Ohio State’s Jim Tressel uses perennial bonehead Terrelle Pryor.  So here are the steps I was suggesting Michigan should take:

1. Prepare Gardner to be the starter.
2. Bring in a freshman or two and see if they can handle being the backup.
3. Move Denard to RB or WR. Create a package for him to be the “Wildcat QB” or just let him get a few reps at QB in case of an emergency. And if people get hurt ahead of him, he could always move back to QB in a Paul Thompson (ex-Oklahoma QB/WR) or Justin Siller (Purdue QB/RB) type of way.

I don’t think Denard is as injury-prone as you suggested, although I do think he’s injury-prone for a quarterback and was asked to run too much. He got his shoulder dinged up, but the main reason that mattered was because he was playing quarterback. A minor shoulder injury isn’t a big deal for a RB because he doesn’t have to throw. And Denard did bang up his hip and knee, but I would guess a majority of running backs get dinged up throughout the year. They were all pretty minor injuries, and I don’t think they would have been as big of a deal if Denard wasn’t a QB and touching the ball on 100% of the plays.

It’s unclear whether Robinson has the ability to play wide receiver, which requires precise route-running and good hand-eye coordinator.  Quarterbacks usually have pretty good hands, and with Robinson’s speed, I don’t doubt that he could play receiver, at least the college level.  And he’s already essentially a running back at times; we’ve seen his patience in waiting for blocks to develop, his ability to outrun or outmaneuver defenders, and his ability to accelerate through the hole.  Receiver might be a huge question mark, but I have no doubt that Robinson could be an outstanding running back at the college level.  I see no discernible difference between Robinson and Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson – one is listed at 6’0″, 193 lbs. and the other is 5’11”, 191 lbs. – who seems to be doing rather well for himself.

Like I said, it’s partially dependent on whom Hoke can recruit to play QB. If he can’t recruit someone for the class of 2011 and Tate Forcier doesn’t return, then Denard surely has to stay at quarterback. But I agree that Denard does want to play quarterback, and there’s something to be said for that. I just also think that Denard’s NFL future depends on his versatility, and playing RB or WR might prepare him more for his future. Guys who convert from QB in college to another position in the NFL generally aren’t anything more than role players in the NFL, although there are a few exceptions (Josh Cribbs, Antwaan Randle-El, etc.). There are guys out there like Julian Edelman, Brad Smith, and Bert Emanuel, but I don’t think many superstar college players want to be the next Bert Emanuel.

None of this is to say that I dislike Denard Robinson or that I want him to transfer.  His leadership, on-field demeanor, effort, and talent are unquestionable.  I hope he remains at Michigan for two more years, Brady Hoke can use him effectively, and Robinson goes on to a long and illustrious football career.  If his goal is to be an outstanding college quarterback, win a lot of games, and re-insert himself into the Heisman race, then it might be in Robinson’s best interest to play at a different school.  But if his goal is to maximize his effectiveness and begin a transition to a position that is more likely to get him to the NFL, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for him to become a running back.

14Jan 2011
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Tate Forcier, ex-Wolverine . . . for now

See you later, Tate.  Or not.

During Wednesday’s press conference to introduce new head coach Brady Hoke, athletic director David Brandon was asked about the status of Tate Forcier, Michigan’s starting quarterback in 2009 and backup in 2010.  Brandon responded that Forcier is “no longer with the program.”

Some reports indicate that Forcier is no longer at Michigan due to flunking out during the fall semester.  Mike Forcier, Tate’s father, stated that his son did not flunk out of school. Regardless, he was ineligible for the Gator Bowl against Mississippi State.  Forcier is supposedly enrolled at a community college in the hopes of re-applying to the University of Michigan.  If Forcier were to be reinstated to U of M for the fall semester, he would not lose a year of eligibility, as far as I know; he would be a true junior for the 2011 season.

Forcier is a 4-star recruit from San Diego who enrolled early in January 2009 to take the position vacated by Steve Threet (transferred to Arizona State) and Nick Sheridan (relegated to the bench).  He immediately seized the starting position and  held onto it for his entire season freshman.  The team went 5-7 and Forcier finished 165-for-281 (58.7%) for 2050 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

Some reported immaturity and the meteoric rise of classmate Denard Robinson sent Forcier to the sideline for the majority of 2010.  He originally responded poorly to the benching, entertaining thoughts of a transfer when true freshman Devin Gardner overtook the sophomore Forcier for second place on the depth chart during the 2010 opener against Connecticut.  However, Forcier’s third-place spot on the depth chart turned out to be maturity based rather than performance-based, and he eventually overtook Gardner.  Forcier saw spot duty in several games, but really showed out when Robinson was injured against Illinois.  Forcier finished out the second half of the 67-65, triple-overtime victory.  He ended the season 54-for-84 (64.3%) for 597 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

I was excited about Forcier when he was recruited back in 2009.  I thought he had a chance to be a version 2.0 Rich Rodriguez quarterback, the type who would throw the ball a lot, run a little bit, and hand off to some as-yet-undiscovered superstar Rich Rodriguez running back.  But . . . uhhh . . . none of that really happened.  Forcier turned out to be a little too headstrong for his own good, throwing passes he had no business throwing, scrambling with the ball loosely held in one arm, taking his starting job a little too lightly, and ultimately losing his spot on the football team.  He still has potential to be a decent quarterback if he matures – both on and off the field.  But I also won’t be surprised if he fades into the background like both of his quarterback brothers (Jason, who was a backup at Michigan and Stanford; and Chris, who played at UCLA and Furman).
Forcier’s departure almost guarantees that new coach Brady Hoke will need to recruit one or more quarterbacks for the Class of 2011.  Even if Forcier finds himself back on Michigan’s campus in the fall, the quarterback position would remain thin with only three scholarship players.  While Hoke has promised to incorporate Denard Robinson’s skills into the offense, I expect that Michigan will try to find a pro-style quarterback before National Signing Day.
12Jan 2011
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Who fits and who doesn’t?

Quarterback Denard Robinson might struggle in a Brady Hoke offense

After Lloyd Carr retired in 2007, Rich Rodriguez was hired and struggled to turn Carr’s pro-style personnel into a spread-style offense.  Steve Threet and Nick Sheridan didn’t light the world on fire in 2008, and Tate Forcier was decent for a freshman in 2009.  But the quarterbacks and other offensive players didn’t hit their Rodriguez-level spread until 2010, when Denard Robinson temporarily vaulted into the lead of the Heisman Trophy race.  That leap was short-lived, since Rodriguez was ousted and replaced by Brady Hoke in January 2011, signifying a return to a pro-style offense.

I really had no reason to watch or study San Diego State University’s offense during the football season, but I’ve since watched some highlights and read some accounts of Hoke’s offensive schemes.  Since no assistant coaches have been announced yet, it’s impossible to say for sure what schemes will be run.  However, here are some thoughts based on what I’ve seen from SDSU’s 2010 offense.

It’s Michigan all over again.  Lloyd Carr-style Michigan, at least.  Multiple tight end sets, two backs in the backfield, play action with deep posts, a little bit of shotgun spread, I-formation, etc.  Yep.  You’ve seen it before.

Quarterbacks.  Both of SDSU’s quarterbacks were 6’4″-6’5″ and 210-215 lbs.  This does not bode well for Denard Robinson, who is approximately 6’0″ and 193 lbs.  Additionally, Robinson’s best asset is his ability to run, not to drop back and read defenses.  My initial reaction is to expect that Robinson will transfer, perhaps to Pitt, where former Michigan offensive coordinator Calvin Magee has alighted.  He could go to Pittsburgh, sit out 2011, and have two years of eligibility to play quarterback.  In my opinion, the best chance Hoke has to retain Robinson is to make a pitch for Robinson to become a running back or wide receiver.  I think most people realize that Robinson’s NFL future lies in a position other than QB, so perhaps Hoke can convince him to begin that position change now.  The rumor is that Tate Forcier has flunked out of the University of Michigan, so that leaves sophomore/redshirt freshman Devin Gardner to helm Michigan’s offense.  I do not expect Gardner that would look elsewhere, and he could potentially be a four-year starter for Hoke.  Gardner is more suited to play in a pro-style offense than Rodriguez’s spread, in my opinion, so this could be a positive change for him.

Running backs.  This might be partially due to the talent available at Ball State and San Diego State, but Hoke doesn’t seem to mind using smaller running backs.  One might think that he would revert to the 6’1″, 220 lb. running backs that Michigan used to employ in the 1990s and early 2000s, but that won’t necessarily be the case.  I think each of the running backs on the current roster should be compatible with Hoke’s offense if they so choose.

Fullbacks.  Michigan fans shouldn’t necessarily expect the bruising, blocker-only fullbacks that Lloyd Carr often used.  Don’t think Kevin Dudley or Obi Oluigbo.  Think B.J. Askew.  Senior John McColgan could fit here as a blocker, but guys like Stephen Hopkins or Michael Cox would likely be more effective.

Tight ends.  Michigan’s current tight ends shouldn’t have a hard time fitting in with Hoke.  He likes to involve the tight end in the passing game (SDSU’s starter had 29 receptions and averaged 11+ yards a catch), and both Kevin Koger and Brandon Moore are athletic, pass-catching types.  Ricardo Miller has reportedly changed positions to become a tight end, as well.

Wide receivers.  In the short-term, Michigan should be fine at wide receiver.  Hoke ran a West Coast style offense that uses bigger wide receivers.  The likes of Darryl Stonum, Roy Roundtree, Je’Ron Stokes, D.J. Williamson, Jerald Robinson, and Jeremy Jackson should be fine.  A couple of those guys aren’t exactly big, but they’re big enough and the top few guys are good enough to be successful.  Martavious Odoms played outside in 2010, even though he’s more of a slot receiver.  I do think Odoms could be a factor at WR because of his athleticism, blocking, and chutzpah, but he’s probably not the type of wideout that Hoke will recruit.

Slot receiversYeah, this is the position that will likely be phased out at Michigan.  That’s not to say that we should expect Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, Kelvin Grady, or Drew Dileo to get cut.  Every team out there seems to be able to use one or two of those types of guys to return punts and kicks, be a change-of-pace runner, or play in the slot.  But there won’t be a need to keep so many of those types of kids on the roster.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see some attrition from this position.  I hope that none of these guys transfer, so don’t take this the wrong way, but it might make sense for a guy like Gallon or Robinson to go elsewhere.  Gallon would have two years of eligibility remaining since he redshirted already; Robinson would only have one if he went to an FBS school, but he could play immediately in the FCS.

Offensive line.  Michigan’s offensive linemen beefed up for the 2010 season, and I don’t think the transition will be much of a problem for them.  We might see them adding a little more bulk for 2011 – especially Taylor Lewan – but it’s not like Rich Rodriguez was playing 260-pound linemen.  Michigan might be a little undersized at center for a couple years, but David Molk is the strongest offensive lineman on the team and Christian Pace should have another year to add weight.  But guys like Lewan, Patrick Omameh, Ricky Barnum, Elliott Mealer, and Rocko Khoury should be just fine.

Summary.  Offensive attrition should be minimal as far as numbers go.  Michigan might lose a quarterback, and I would understand if a running back/slot guy or two decided to try his hand elsewhere, but the transition from Rodriguez’s spread to Hoke’s pro-style offense shouldn’t be as much of a culture shock as Carr-to-Rodriguez.  However, just looking at the quarterback position, the performance might suffer in the short-term while Hoke hones the skills of whichever quarterback(s) sticks around.

11Jan 2011
Uncategorized 39 comments

Brady Hoke, Wolverine (again)

Tony Siragusa Brady Hoke will be the new Michigan football coach

Athletic director David Brandon released a statement on Tuesday announcing that Brady Hoke, the San Diego State head coach, will replace Rich Rodriguez as the head coach at the University of Michigan.  Hoke was a defensive line coach at Michigan from 1995-2002 and has since spent eight seasons as an FBS head coach at Ball State and SDSU.  He’s married with one daughter.

Hoke’s results at Ball State . . .
2003: 4-8, 3-5
2004: 2-9, 2-6
2005: 4-7, 4-4
2006: 5-7, 5-3
2007: 7-6, 5-2
2008: 12-1, 8-0

Hoke’s results at SDSU . . .
2009: 4-8, 2-6
2010: 9-4, 5-3

Totals . . .
47-50 overall
34-30 in conference
1-1 in bowl games (Hoke did not coach in Ball State’s 2008 bowl game)

The 2010 version of San Diego State finished 16th in total offense, 19th in scoring offense, 43rd in total defense, and 36th in scoring defense.

I am not a fan of this hire.  At all.  The all-time winningest program in college football history just hired a guy with a 47-50 career record, a .484 winning percentage.  The all-time winningest program in college football history just hired a guy who has three winning seasons in his career, or 37.5% of the time.  The all-time winningest program in college football history just hired a guy who was probably Michigan’s third choice – at best – behind Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles.

I said after the 2010 Ohio State game that I thought Michigan’s coaching ranking should be:

1. Jim Harbaugh
2. Rich Rodriguez

If David Brandon was going to wait until after the Orange Bowl to make a firing/hiring, then he should have sewn up Harbaugh immediately or retained Rodriguez (and forced him to fire Greg Robinson).  There shouldn’t have been a third option, like Miles or Hoke.

I don’t care if Brady Hoke is a Michigan Man.  He’s not a proven coach.  He loses more than he wins.  It took him five seasons to get the exact same record (7-6) at a MAC school as Rich Rodriguez earned in his third season at Michigan.

Meanwhile, Hoke runs a pro-style offense whose two quarterbacks in 2010 were 6’4″-6’5″ and between 210 and 215 pounds; Denard Robinson will probably either agree to change positions or transfer to Pitt.  Meanwhile, Hoke had better hope that sophomore/redshirt freshman Devin Gardner can play quarterback fairly well, because . . . well . . . choices are slim.  Well, “choice” is probably too broad of a term there.  I know David Brandon can’t make a decision about a program based on one player or one position, but when you go with a losing coach who also probably plans to totally revamp the offensive and defensive systems, that’s kind of a double blow.

Hoke isn’t all bad.  He had two 1,000 yard receivers in 2010.  He also had the 10th leading rusher in the country.  He went 9-4 and won a bowl game.  By all accounts he’s a nice guy, a solid recruiter, and a fiery leader. 

By the way, I’m keeping my Rivals account to follow recruiting, but not for the inside information.  Chris Balas, the “insider” over there charged with following the coaching situation, originally implied that Harbaugh would be hired, then he switched his pick to Hoke, then Miles, then Hoke again.  I said after the bowl game that I expected Harbaugh to be the next coach, but after that, I quit guessing.  You get one chance to be right.  If you screw it up, you just throw up your hands and say “I don’t know what the hell is going on.”  Not Balas, though.  I guess you’re bound to be right if, once you’re wrong, you get to change your answer a bunch of times.  I wish the ACT had been like that back when I was in high school.

2Jan 2011
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Mississippi State 52, Michigan 14

Kick returner Martavious Odoms stiff-arms a Bulldog defender

Well, that was disappointing.

Martavious Odoms is a beast.  Odoms came back from a broken foot that he suffered halfway through the season, and he played an excellent game.  His only reception was an impressive 27-yard catch on which he twisted in the air to reel in the ball.  But he was also very effective on kickoff returns, taking back 7 kicks for 161 yards (23.0 yards per return).  You have to appreciate how hard this kid plays on every single play.

Chris Relf is not a beast, but Michigan made him look like one.  This is nothing new – Michigan makes opposing quarterbacks look awesome.  But never has that been more apparent than on New Year’s Day.  If you extrapolate Relf’s performance on Saturday over 13 games, he would have ended the year with 234 completions on 299 attempts (78%) for 3653 yards, 39 passing touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (and Relf’s lone interception was a Hail Mary at the end of the first half).  Prior to the Gator Bowl, Relf was 111/197 (56%) for 1508 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.  That’s right.  Michigan literally made Relf about two or three times better than he was during the rest of the season.

James Rogers is fast.  Even coming out of high school, Rogers’ #1 strength was his speed.  Although the Bulldogs scored on the very next play, kudos to Rogers for chasing down running back Ladarius Perkins on his 81-yard reception.  Perkins looked like he was gone on the play, but as soon as I saw Rogers turn on the jets, I knew it wouldn’t be a touchdown.

Here’s my weekly rant against Vincent Smith.  Argh argh argh argh!  Guess who got the most carries aside from Denard Robinson?  Vincent Smith.  Guess who has the second-lowest rushing average on the team?  Yep, Vincent Smith (4.42 yards per carry).  Fitzgerald Toussaint (10.88), Michael Cox (9.3), and Michael Shaw (5.36) are all significantly higher.  Freshman short yardage back Stephen Hopkins (4.08) is the only back with a lower average.  And I find it funny that one of Rich Rodriguez’s reasons for playing Smith was “He’s not a fumbler.”  Well, now Smith has fumbled about 5 times this year, which is far more than any other running back.  So how about just putting the best player out there, someone who might have a chance at being consistent and/or making a big play?  It’s ridiculous that the starting running back is so ineffective when there are other options that just don’t get a chance to see the field.

Denard Robinson is still erratic. . .  Look, it’s painful to criticize Robinson.  He doesn’t get much help, he gets beaten up, he’s got a great attitude, he plays hard, and oh by the way, he has a great deal of talent.  But he shouldn’t be throwing the ball 41 times in a game.  I realize that the game situation called for a lot of throws; when you’re down by 38 points, running doesn’t do much.  But this game just didn’t play out well for him.  If backup quarterback Tate Forcier wasn’t an idiot and remained eligible for the bowl game, then the second half would have been a situation in which Forcier would have been inserted.  Forcier is more effective when the playcalling is limited to pass, pass, pass.  So part of this can be blamed on #5, but Denard Robinson was the one who overthrew Junior Hemingway a couple times.  Denard was also the one who consistently made “inaccurate completions” where his receivers had to dive, jump, or twist around to catch the ball.  You’re not going to get a lot of yards after the catch when the receivers don’t have forward momentum.

. . . and so is Roy Roundtree.  I was all about Roy Roundtree early in the season, but he’s totally fallen apart over the past few games.  He dropped a couple passes against Wisconsin, five against Ohio State, and another couple against Mississippi State.  One of the drops against Mississippi State was a very nice deep throw from Robinson that might have gone for a touchdown, except for the fact that Roy Roundtree spent the previous TV timeout eating some KFC.

Field goal schmield goal.  It’s not like losing 52-17 is much different than 52-14, but I was furious when Rich Rodriguez sent out Brendan Gibbons to kick a field goal in the first half.  It’s 4th-and-4, and you’re going to send out a kid who’s 1-for-4 on field goals on a team that’s 4-for-13 overall?  When your defense sucks and so do your kickers, you go for it in that situation.  Those kickers shouldn’t have seen the field except for extra points.

Rich Rodriguez is gone.  This was probably the case prior to the game, but the 38-point loss pretty much seals the deal.  My expectation is that athletic director David Brandon will let Jim Harbaugh coach Stanford against Virginia Tech tomorrow night in the Orange Bowl.  Then later in the week, Harbaugh will be hired to replace Rodriguez.  Rodriguez and his staff had a chance to make a case for themselves in this game, and they laid a very stinky egg.