Tag: Denard Robinson

Wisconsin 48, Michigan 28

Denard Robinson tackles defensive end JJ Watt after an interception.

Bullets:

I’m not upset.  This is a game that I expected Michigan to lose.  Almost everyone did.  That’s not to say that I wasn’t frustrated by some of the things that the coaches and players did – and the offensive production in the first half was somewhat embarrassing – but ultimately, this outcome is what most educated observers foresaw.

Denard’s overthrow early was a killer.  No one play completely destroyed Michigan on Saturday.  That’s impossible when you lose by 20 points.  But I can’t help but think “What if?” about that long pass from Robinson to Darryl Stonum in the first quarter.  Due to Denard Robinson’s running ability, he’s going to see a lot of Cover 0 with no deep safety.  He must take advantage of those opportunities.  Stonum is a blazer and probably would not have been caught from behind if Robinson had put the pass within reach.  If I remember correctly, that would have tied the game at 7-7.  Instead, Michigan went into halftime down 24-0.

Vincent Smith’s concussion looked ugly.  We’ve all seen our fair share of concussions on television (and/or in person).  The scariest are when players get knocked out cold, but it gives me a queasy feeling to see players stumbling around in a daze like Smith did when he tried to get up.  As commentator Chris Spielman said, kudos to Smith for having the toughness to try to get up after taking a knee to the head from 292-pound defensive end J.J. Watt.  Smith’s reaction was reminiscent of Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Stewart Bradley earlier this season, who was inexplicably allowed to re-enter the game almost immediately; luckily, Michigan’s training staff seems to care more about its players than the Eagles’.  Hopefully Smith heals quickly, but . . .

Injuries are mounting and chances against OSU are slimming.  Starting running back Vincent Smith will probably miss the Ohio State game due to his concussion.  Starting defensive end Craig Roh apparently had concussion-like symptoms, too.  Starting wide receiver Darryl Stonum was carted off the field with his left ankle heavily wrapped in ice.  Starting nose tackle Mike Martin missed much of the second half with his ongoing ankle problems.  Michigan’s top two cornerbacks (Troy Woolfolk, J.T. Floyd) are already out for the season due to ankle injuries.  This seems to be shaping up to be a more beaten-up unit against the Buckeyes than the 2007 team that featured a noodle-armed Chad Henne and a gimpy Mike Hart in the backfield.

The deployment of free safety Ray Vinopal was dumb.  First of all, it’s important to point out that Ray Vinopal has been an upgrade over Cameron Gordon at free safety.  There’s no question about that.  But why in the hell was Greg Robinson using Vinopal as a blitzing box safety?  This type of decision makes me want Robinson replaced at the end of the season.  Against the biggest, most physical, run-oriented team Michigan will face all season, it makes absolutely zero sense to put a 5’10”, 197 lb. (yeah, right) true freshman up at the line of scrimmage to take on a fullback, tight end, or pulling guard.  That’s ridamndiculous.  If you’re going to blitz from that position, put in Thomas Gordon.  Or send Jordan Kovacs from the edge.  There’s no excuse for that kind of matchup at the line of scrimmage, and that’s not Vinopal’s fault.  The Greg Robinson experiment needs to end.

Roy Roundtree is good.  Despite one inexplicable dropped pass on which he was wide open, Roundtree had another good day with 7 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown.  I’m looking forward to seeing him wear that #1 jersey.

Congratulations to Denard Robinson.  Robinson passed the NCAA record for most rushing yards by a quarterback, previously set by Air Force QB Beau Morgan in 1996.  He has now passed for 2,229 yards and rushed for 1,538 . . . and he still has two games to go.

Preview: Michigan vs. Wisconsin

Running back James White

Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense
Wisconsin has the #25 rushing defense in the country, giving up only 3.8 yards per carry and 125 yards per game.  Meanwhile, Michigan is the #9 rushing offense, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 266 yards per game.  One way or the other, one of these units is going to be disappointed on Sunday.  Michigan’s running game hasn’t been shut down yet this year.  When teams have limited Denard Robinson’s running, the tailbacks have picked up the slack.  And when teams take away the tailbacks, Robinson seems to run free.  I will be interested to see what the Badgers do on Saturday.  It looks to me like Robinson has started to wear down from various nagging injuries.  I wonder if Wisconsin might take the chance of crashing down on the running backs, playing some Cover 0, and daring Robinson to beat them.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense
Wisconsin is #28 in pass defense, but a mediocre #51 in pass efficiency defense.  On the other side, Denard Robinson is the #14 passer in the country . . . with very little dropoff to backup Tate Forcier, since the team is still #14 overall in efficiency.  If all things are working well for Robinson, he should have a good day and make some good plays through the air.  Unfortunately, as I mentioned above, Robinson’s play has deteriorated somewhat in the Big Ten; in the last five games, Robinson’s 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions have looked less than stellar.  Over that five-game stretch, Robinson’s PER is 138.37 and that would rank him at #36 in the country.  He’s not stinking the joint up, but he’s not lighting the world on fire, either.  That stretch of mediocre play might continue with left tackle Taylor Lewan’s availability in question due to a concussion and right tackle Perry Dorrestein’s nagging knee injury.  Michigan isn’t far from playing backup Mark Huyge at left tackle and untested redshirt freshman Michael Schofield at right tackle.  That could be troublesome for Michigan’s quarterback.  Luckily, Michigan’s receivers – Junior Hemingway and Roy Roundtree, in particular – are playing great football and should be able to take advantage of mismatches against a pedestrian secondary.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Wisconsin Rush Offense
This is where it really looks ugly for Michigan, and this is nothing new.  Michigan’s coaches have made some positive moves in recent weeks, putting Cameron Gordon at outside linebacker instead of free safety, Craig Roh (finally!) at defensive end instead of linebacker, and Obi Ezeh (finally!) at outside linebacker rather than in the middle.  If banged-up starters Jonas Mouton and Mike Martin can play at a high level, those are steps in the right direction.  But Wisconsin is one of the top rushing units in the country, ranking #12 overall.  The good news is that starting Panzer VIII Maus running back John Clay will miss the game due to injury.  The bad news is that top backup James White averages more yards per carry (6.8) than Clay (5.4); even third-string Montee Ball averages 5.6 yards per carry.  Does that mean Wisconsin’s running backs are great?  Absolutely not.  It means that Wisconsin’s offensive linemen are all named Vinnie Jones and make a habit of saying “I’m the Juggernaut, bitch!”  They are big and mean and really, really hate Ellen Page.
Advantage: Wisconsin

Pass Defense vs. Wisconsin Pass Offense
One place that Michigan seems to be making some strides is in pass defense.  Cornerback Courtney Avery might be a downgrade from J.T. Floyd in terms of experience, but I’m convinced that Avery will be a better defensive back than Floyd in the long run.  Avery is a quick learner and possesses better agility and hips than Floyd has ever shown.  Meanwhile, the linebackers replacing Craig Roh at SAM (J.B. Fitzgerald, Obi Ezeh) aren’t fluid in space, but they’re better off covering curl zones than a 6’5″, 250 lb. defensive end.  Wisconsin quarterback Scott Tolzien has the #8 PER in the country and averages 8.85 yards per attempt, though.  The combination of Wisconsin’s offensive line, running backs, and Tolzien leaves chances for big plays at any time.  Despite an effective pass offense, I think big plays through the air will be limited by improving play and confidence in the secondary.  Even so, Wisconsin should be able to pick up yards in chunks.
Advantage: Wisconsin

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson breaks 100 yards rushing for the eighth time this year
• James Rogers proves prophetic and Wisconsin fails to score 83 points
• James White averages fewer than 6.8 yards per carry
• Michigan’s defense stops the big play but dies a slow death
• Wisconsin 35, Michigan 27

Michigan vs. Purdue Awards

Obi Ezeh led the team with eight tackles on Saturday.

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . good Vincent Smith.  It’s been about 11.5 months since Smith’s ACL tear, and it looks like he’s finally getting healthy.  Perhaps it’s partially due to the fact that it was Purdue’s defense, but Smith looked quicker and faster than he has all season.  I still don’t like the fact that he was put on the field about nine months after tearing that ACL, but he finally seems to be rounding into form.  Hopefully he maintains his level of play.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . bad quarterbacks.  Denard Robinson seems to have regressed in recent weeks, both throwing and running the ball.  I think it’s fair to say at this point that the number of carries Denard has averaged so far this season are catching up to Robinson and Coach Rodriguez.  Robinson was 13-for-21 for 176 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 bad interceptions.  The big plays are going to be there because of the quality of Michigan’s receivers and the threat of Denard running the ball, but Robinson needs to become a more consistent passer – and soon – if he wants to beat Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Tate Forcier wasn’t any better, hitting only 1/4 passes and averaging only .8 yards per carry.

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Obi Ezeh seemed to make a nice transition from middle linebacker to outside linebacker.  Since prior to 2008, I’ve thought that Ezeh was more of an OLB than a MLB.  In that season I really wanted John Thompson to play MLB and have Ezeh moved outside.  That obviously didn’t happen, and Ezeh spent his entire career at MLB until recently.  He ended the game with 8 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and 1 sack.  Ezeh’s biggest problem at middle linebacker was that he read plays too slowly, but the reads at OLB are slightly simpler and one misstep won’t necessarily get him out of position.  With Craig Roh now playing defensive end (which is also a good move), Ezeh is a good option at OLB.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Mark Moundros.  He was voted defensive captain for a reason . . . and I think the biggest reason was that he was clearly willing to change positions (and sides of the ball!) as a senior just to try to help the team and get on the field.  However, I don’t think he’s fast enough, instinctive enough, or experienced enough to make an impact on defense.  Hopefully the guy he replaced (Jonas Mouton) returns soon from his chest injury.  If Mouton is still unavailable next week, I’d prefer to see J.B. Fitzgerald start at weakside linebacker, Demens in the middle, and Ezeh at OLB.

MVP of the Purdue game . . . Vincent Smith.  This was a tough choice, because nobody really took over the game this week.  There were several guys who had one or two big plays (Craig Roh, Cameron Gordon, Roy Roundtree, James Rogers), but Smith had a solid day and finished with just under 100 yards, including a stellar 19-yard run.  Good for him.

Poll Results: How many rushing yards will Denard get?

After Michigan’s second game, I asked the question, “Denard Robinson has 455 rushing yards through 2 games (on pace for 2730).  How many yards will he have at the end of the season?”  One-hundred and twenty-eight people voted.

46% said 1,500-1,999
44% said 1,000-1,499
7% said 2,000-2,499
1% said 2,500 or more
1% said 500-999
0% said Less than 500

Through nine games, Robinson currently has 1,349 yards.  That puts him on pace for 1.949 yards now that Michigan has qualified to play in a bowl game.  However, Robinson’s apparent head injury against Illinois on Saturday may limit his playing time in the coming weeks.

Preview: Michigan vs. Illinois

Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure had 150 yards rushing and averaged over 7 yards a carry in 2009.

It just so happens that my personal schedule hasn’t left me much time over the past couple days.  I don’t have time for a full preview, and even a full preview would say the same thing it always does: Michigan’s offense has the advantage, and no matter how bad the offense, the Wolverines’ defense will be worse. 

The problems on defense have only been exacerbated by this week’s loss of cornerback J.T. Floyd to an ankle injury and the ongoing ankle problems for nose tackle Mike Martin.  Mediocre Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will likely look like the Second Coming of . . . well . . . Matt McGloin and shred Michigan’s defense.

Meanwhile, Illinois is #15 in total defense and #12 in scoring defense.

I do not expect good things to happen.

Final Predictions

• Running back Mikel Leshoure will run for a billion yards
• Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will pass for a billion yards
• Vincent Smith will get a handful of carries and do virtually nothing
• Denard Robinson will run for a bunch of yards, get hurt, and throw the ball erratically (not necessarily in that order)
• Illinois 38, Michigan 27