Tag: game preview

27Dec 2013

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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Special Teams

Kansas State returner Tramaine Thompson is dangerous with the ball in his hands.

MICHIGAN
Starters: The Wolverines are in pretty bad shape when it comes to special teams, but it could be worse. Fifth year senior placekicker Brendan Gibbons has been ruled out of the bowl game with a groin injury, and senior punter Will Hagerup has been suspended for the entire season, so all the kicking duties will be up to junior Matt Wile (6’2″, 216 lbs.). Wile is pretty experienced for being a backup punter and kicker, but when it comes to kicking field goals, he hasn’t been in many pressure situations. Wile is 1/3 on field goals this year, 5/5 on extra points, and averages 40.6 yards/punt. He’s been the kickoff guy all year and gets a 49.3% touchback rate. Sophomore Dennis Norfleet (5’7″, 169 lbs.) has 36 kickoff returns for 850 yards and a 23.6-yard average. Fifth year senior Jeremy Gallon (5’8″, 184 lbs.) and senior Drew Dileo (5’10”, 180 lbs.) have combined for 12 punt returns and 76 yards, so they’re not much of a threat.
Backups: Redshirt freshman Kenny Allen (6’3″, 226 lbs.) will be the backup kicker and punter, and he has 1 punt this year for 51 yards. Dileo has averaged 19.2 yards on 5 returns, and redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson (6’3″, 196 lbs.) has averaged 18 yards on 2 returns.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: The Wildcats have two excellent returners. One is fifth year senior punt returner Tramaine Thompson (5’8″, 167 lbs.), who has averaged 20.2 yards/return this year with a long of 79 yards; teams respect him so much that they’ve only given him a chance to return 9 punts. Junior Tyler Lockett (5’11”, 175 lbs.) is the kick returner with a 25.5-yard average, and while he hasn’t yet returned a kickoff for a touchdown in 2013, he had 2 scores in each of the past two seasons. Redshirt junior Mark Krause (5’11”, 218 lbs.) averages 41.3 yards/punt and has landed 17 inside the 20-yard line. Redshirt sophomore Jack Cantele (6’0″, 193 lbs.) is 11/13 on field goals and 40/41 on extra points, but he was injured prior to KSU’s final regular season game and may not be back for the bowl game.
Backups: Thompson has returned 2 kickoffs this year, but one was for a 96-yard touchdown. Backup kicker Ian Patterson (5’11”, 233 lbs.), a redshirt freshman, is 2/3 on field goals and 8/8 on extra points; he has also taken over kickoff duties, where he has a touchback rate almost twice as high as Cantele’s.

THE TAKEAWAY
The Wolverines haven’t been particularly strong on special teams under Brady Hoke, but they haven’t been terrible, either. They did block a punt and return it for a touchdown against Central Michigan, and the game-tying end-of-regulation field goal against Northwestern was the #4 play in the Big Ten this year, according to BTN Live. Unfortunately, battle-tested Brendan Gibbons is out, and Wile has been erratic as a kicker and as a punter. Michigan’s return games have been exciting but fruitless with Norfleet, Gallon, and Dileo. Meanwhile, Kansas State has a couple all-conference-caliber returners in Lockett and Thompson, and Cantele is a solid kicker if healthy. The Wolverines did allow a punt return touchdown to South Carolina’s Ace Sanders in last year’s bowl game, so they’ve been susceptible to special teams breakdowns at times. Wile might be able to negate Lockett’s return abilities because he’s pretty good at kicking touchbacks, and Michigan has some aggressive players on punt coverage, but overall, this is looking like an advantage for . . .

ADVANTAGE: Kansas State

24Dec 2013

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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Defensive Backs

Safety Ty Zimmerman is a potential game-changer at safety if he’s healthy.

MICHIGAN
Starters: The headliner of this group is redshirt sophomore Blake Countess (5’10”, 182 lbs.), who’s tied for #5 in the country with 6 picks and is #3 in return yards with 169, including a touchdown. He also has 42 tackles and 4 pass breakups to his name. Countess starts on the outside but will slide into the slot when Michigan goes to its nickel packages. The other starter at corner is junior Raymon Taylor (5’10”, 183 lbs.), who’s tied for the team lead with 81 tackles and has 4 picks and 9 pass breakups of his own. Taylor racks up a lot of tackles because teams attack him instead of Countess, but he’s a solid tackler when receivers catch the ball near him. The other sure starter in the defensive backfield is fifth year senior strong safety Thomas Gordon (5’11”, 213 lbs.), a guy who lacks speed and isn’t a headhunter but who usually seems to be in the right spot; he has 49 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, and 2 pass breakups this year despite missing two games. The likely starter at free safety is sophomore Jarrod Wilson (6’2″, 200 lbs.), a potentially violent hitter who sometimes gets caught out of position; he has 45 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, and 2 pass breakups.
Backups: Wilson has lost some playing time to senior Courtney Avery (5’11”, 175 lbs.), who has bounced back and forth between corner, slot corner, and safety throughout his career; he has 30 tackles and .5 sacks on the year but looks to have lost a step after an injury over the summer and has been inconsistent. Redshirt junior Josh Furman (6’2″, 202 lbs.) is a linebacker in a safety’s body, and he has just 11 tackles and 1 pass breakup on the year, despite earning two starts and a variety of backup duty. He can be taken advantage of through the air. At cornerback, when Countess slides into the slot, he’s replaced by one of two freshmen: Channing Stribling (6’2″, 171 lbs., 15 tackles) or Jourdan Lewis (5’10”, 170 lbs., 17 tackles, 2 pass breakups). Whoever has the best week of practice is the one who earns the role that game, so we’ll just have to wait and see who gets the nod.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: Fifth year senior safety Ty Zimmerman (6’1″, 204 lbs.) is the leader of the group and has been a First Team All-Big 12 selection in both 2012 and 2013; he has 70 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions (2 returned for touchdowns), and 4 pass breakups this season. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, he missed the final two regular season games and is questionable for the bowl game. Sophomore fellow safety Dante Barnett (6’1″, 186 lbs.) has 67 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, and 3 pass breakups. The Wildcats spend a lot of time in a nickel package, so the fifth defensive back – a safety/linebacker hybrid – is redshirt junior Randall Evans (6’0″, 190 lbs.), who has 59 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, and 10 pass breakups. The cornerbacks are solid but did not earn any all-conference accolades. Fifth year senior Kip Daily (5’11”, 180 lbs.) has 47 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 4 pass breakups on the year, while fifth year senior Dorrian Roberts (5’10”, 168 lbs.) has 37 stops, 2.5 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, and 8 pass breakups. Roberts is rather inexperienced after playing in junior college for two years, redshirting in 2011, and not seeing the field at all in 2012.
Backups: Redshirt junior Dylan Schellenberg (6’0″, 189 lbs.) has been starting in Zimmerman’s stead, and he has 19 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 1 interception on the year. Fifth year senior Carl Miles, Jr. (5’11”, 190 lbs.) has 6 tackles and 1 pass breakup on the season, but he and the other backups are rarely used. Other than subbing Evans in and out for a linebacker, the Wildcats go with their starting unit almost the whole game.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan is #62 in the nation giving up 238 yards/game through the air, but much of that is due to teams throwing instead of running on a stout run defense; they’re #32 in passer efficiency rating defense. Kansas State is #24 in the latter category and tied for #47 nationally at 222 yards allowed/game. Two of KSU’s worst three games against the pass were in recent games against TCU and Oklahoma before righting the ship against a pathetic Kansas Jayhawks squad. They rank #20 in the country with 16 interceptions on the year. If Zimmerman is unable to go, the Wildcats are without any real playmakers in the defensive backfield, though. Michigan is #17 in interceptions with 17 this year, and the two starting corners are the strength of the backfield with 10 interceptions and 13 pass breakups between them. The safety play leaves a little bit to be desired between a lack of discipline (Wilson) and athleticism (Gordon). Despite having a better defensive unit against the pass, the better group of defensive backs play for . . .

ADVANTAGE: Michigan

23Dec 2013

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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Linebackers

Blake Slaughter (#53) helped seal a win against TCU with an interception and 39-yard return

MICHIGAN
Starters: Sophomore weakside linebacker James Ross III (6’1″, 220 lbs.) leads the unit in tackles and is tied for the team lead despite missing the last 1.5 games with an injury; he has 81 stops, 5 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks. Quick and decisive, Ross makes plays by beating blockers to the point of attack, but he’s listed as “questionable” for the bowl game. Junior middle linebacker Desmond Morgan (6’1″, 227 lbs.) is a thumper despite not being particularly big, and he has 73 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 highlight-reel interception this season. Morgan isn’t the fastest linebacker around, but he can hold his ground in the run game. The “star” of the group is actually redshirt junior outside linebacker Jake Ryan (6’3″, 240 lbs.), who has just 26 tackles and 4 tackles for loss; he tore his ACL in the spring and returned halfway through the season, so he has flashed his old athleticism but hasn’t performed up to the standard he set in 2012.
Backups: Sophomore Joe Bolden (6’3″, 225 lbs.) is fourth on the team with 50 tackles, along with 3 tackles for loss and 1 sack. He will likely be Ross’s replacement if the starter can’t go. Bolden has been the top sub at both inside linebacker positions all year in what was mostly a three-man rotation, thus the high tackle total. Freshman Ben Gedeon (6’3″, 236 lbs.) took over Bolden’s substitute role with Ross out, so he might see a significant amount of playing time; he made 14 tackles and 1 sack in limited duty. The other notable player is fifth year senior Cam Gordon (6’3″, 237 lbs.), a fast and strong athlete who’s been pushed to the side by Ryan’s return despite having 38 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks on the season.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: Fifth year senior Blake Slaughter (5’10”, 227 lbs.) is the team leader in tackles with 103 and was honorable mention all-conference; he also had 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 1 interception. Despite being a little stouter than fellow inside linebacker Jonathan Truman (5’11”, 219 lbs.), Slaughter’s the one who bounces outside the box against trips formations and slot receivers. Slaughter was a little used linebacker in 2009-2011 and then redshirted in 2012 in order to help the team in 2013, which was part of the reason he was voted team captain this year. Truman has 85 tackles and 4 tackles for loss to his credit. He’s a redshirt sophomore former walk-on.
Backups: Senior Tre Walker (6’3″, 225 lbs.) is the outside linebacker when Kansas State is in a 4-3 look, and he has 26 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss this season. Redshirt freshman Will Davis (6’0″, 223 lbs.) has 16 tackles this season but doesn’t see a lot of playing time.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan has had solid play from its linebackers for most of the year, and they generally tend to be technically sound. The Wolverines basically have five guys capable of starting (Ross, Morgan, Ryan, Bolden, and Gordon) with Gedeon as a pretty good fourth inside linebacker. The inside guys won’t blitz often, but Ryan and Gordon can threaten the quarterback off the edge. In an admittedly limited study of Kansas State, I think Slaughter, Truman, and Walker are exploitable. Kansas State runs a lot of a 4-2-5 look, meaning their opponents are running at a six-man core that includes two linebackers who are the same weight as Michigan’s linebackers but don’t play quite as stout, in my opinion. They try to run around blocks and they have trouble disengaging. They are fairly quick, which might suit them well against some of the wide-open offenses in the Big 12 (Oregon State, Oklahoma, Baylor, etc.), but they might struggle against a straight-ahead running team that has power running backs in 240 lb. Derrick Green and 224 lb. De’Veon Smith.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan

22Dec 2013

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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Defensive Line

Defensive end Ryan Mueller had 18.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks during the regular season.

MICHIGAN
Starters: Junior weakside end Frank Clark (6’2″, 273 lbs.) is the headliner of the group. As a Second Team all-conference selection, he started the season a little slowly but ended with 12 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. The other defensive end will likely be junior Brennen Beyer (6’3″, 250 lbs.), who has bounced from SAM linebacker to weakside end to SAM linebacker and now to strongside end. Despite starting every game this season, he has just 25 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks, so his playmaking skills are somewhat lacking. Fifth year senior Quinton Washington (6’4″, 301 lbs.) is the nose tackle, and he holds the point of attack fairly well but has made just 19 tackles while being hampered by a nagging back injury. Senior Jibreel Black (6’2″, 278 lbs.) is the 3-tech tackle and can give interior linemen trouble with his quickness, but generally, he lacks the bulk to hold up in the power run game, which could very well be an issue against Kansas State.
Backups: Redshirt sophomore Keith Heitzman (6’3″, 280 lbs.) began the season as the strongside end but is more of a stopgap player with 8 tackles and .5 tackles for loss. Redshirt freshman Chris Wormley (6’4″, 289 lbs.) has played end and 3-tech tackle, and while not a dominant player, he has flashed potential with 17 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Redshirt freshman Ryan Glasgow (6’4″, 300 lbs.) has played a fair amount at defensive tackle but has just 2 total tackles to show for it, and redshirt junior Richard Ash (6’3″, 314 lbs.) has 3 tackles on the season. The backup weakside ends are sophomore Mario Ojemudia (6’3″, 250 lbs.) with 20 tackles and 1.5 sacks and freshman Taco Charlton (6’6″, 270 lbs.) with 2 tackles and .5 tackles for loss.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: Redshirt junior left end Ryan Mueller (6’2″, 245 lbs.) is the star of KSU’s defensive front, racking up 61 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, and 4 forced fumbles this year. That performance earned him first team all-conference honors and mention on some All-America teams. On the other end is senior Alauna Finau (6’1″, 258 lbs.), who has 20 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and .5 sacks on the year. Sophomore left defensive tackle Travis Britz (6’4″, 293 lbs.) has 33 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 3 sacks. Senior right defensive tackle Chaquil Reed (6’3″, 309 lbs.) has 33 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks, and he runs pretty well for a big guy.
Key backups: Redshirt sophomore defensive end Marquel Bryant (6’3″, 241 lbs.) has 13 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks, and junior defensive tackle Valentino Coleman (6’3″, 285 lbs.) has 4 tackles as Britz’s backup. The only other defensive lineman to play in even half of the Wildcats’ games is redshirt junior defensive end Laton Dowling (6’3″, 254 lbs.), who has just 3 tackles on the year, but that includes 2.5 tackles for loss and a sack.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan is #27 in the country in rush defense with 139 yards allowed/game, and Kansas State is #40 giving up 145 yards/game. Against the pass, Michigan is #68 with 23 sacks, and Kansas State is #48 with 27 quarterback takedowns. Statistically, there’s not a ton that separates these two teams. In watching Oklahoma’s 41-31 win over the Wildcats in game 11, I was not impressed with the defensive line. Granted, Oklahoma was the #11 team in the country, but Finau and Coleman looked particularly vulnerable in the running game. They don’t flip their defensive line much, so Mueller has been able to rack up a lot of his numbers against teams’ right tackles, who are generally inferior to the left tackles. Against Michigan, Mueller will face likely one of his best opponents this year in Michael Schofield. Britz and Reed might be able to get a little bit of penetration, but Michigan’s improved offensive line play in the last couple weeks of the season should be sufficient to have a decent day. The Wildcats have the better individual statistics and perhaps the best overall player in Mueller, but with the way Clark, Ojemudia, Beyer, Wormley, Henry, Washington, and Black work together to funnel things to the inside linebackers, I think the advantage right here goes to . . .

ADVANTAGE: Michigan

20Dec 2013

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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Receivers and Tight Ends

Tyler Lockett is the key to Kansas State’s passing game.

MICHIGAN
Starters: The diminutive fifth year senior Jeremy Gallon (5’8″, 184 lbs.) is the go-to guy, and he had an all-conference season with 80 catches, 1284 yards, and 9 touchdowns. He can be effective on just about any route – screens, hitches, square ins, fades, double moves, jump balls, etc. Aside from his lack of height (which he makes up for with his leaping ability and the timing of those leaps), he doesn’t have truly blazing speed, so he sometimes pulls away before getting tracked down in a foot race. The other starting wide receiver is sophomore Devin Funchess (6’5″, 235 lbs.), who made all-conference listed as a tight end but rarely plays it anymore; he has 47 catches for 727 yards and 6 scores. Funchess is Michigan’s bubble screen guy, leaps over tacklers sometimes, runs an occasional end around, and can beat teams deep. The de facto starting tight end is freshman Jake Butt (6’6″, 246 lbs.), who has come on late in the season to catch 17 balls for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. Butt can do a little bit of everything between blocking, catching, and running.
Backups: Redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson (6’3″, 196 lbs.) started a little bit early in the year before Funchess’s blocking became too big of a problem at tight end, and while Chesson’s playing time has dropped a little bit, he’s actually improved his route running and ability to adjust to the ball in the air. He has 13 catches for 213 yards and 1 touchdown. Senior Drew Dileo (5’10”, 180 lbs.) is the only other significant receiving threat, but he’s a possession guy who usually works over the middle. Occasionally, senior Jeremy Jackson (6’3″, 209 lbs.) or redshirt senior Joe Reynolds (6’1″, 196 lbs.) will pop up for a catch, but they’ve totaled just 10 catches for 140 yards and 0 scores this year. Sophomore A.J. Williams (6’6″, 265 lbs.) and redshirt junior Jordan Paskorz (6’3″, 255 lbs.) are the “blocking” tight ends that struggle to block, and while they’ll be on the field a fair amount, they have just 1 total catch.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: The clear leader of the receiving corps is junior Tyler Lockett (5’11”, 175 lbs.), who has 71 catches for 1,146 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season. Lockett has made a lot of big catches for the Wildcats and can be a real threat to the secondary on deep routes. Fifth year senior Tramaine Thompson (5’8″, 167 lbs.) is also a big-play guy from the slot with 28 catches for 495 yards (17.7 yards/catch) and 5 touchdowns. Junior Curry Sexton (5’11”, 183 lbs.) is the other receiver in K-State’s three-wide attack, and he’s been more of a possession guy with 36 catches for 409 yards. Redshirt junior tight end Zach Trujillo is rarely targeted, but he has 5 catches for 111 yards and 1 touchdown.
Backups: Senior Torell Miller (6’3″, 213 lbs.) is a former safety who was expected to start this year in place of Sexton, but he’s been relegated to backup duty and 11 catches, 106 yards, and 1 touchdown. Redshirt sophomore Kyle Klein (6’4″, 210 lbs.) is a former defensive end who has 5 catches for 59 yards on the season. Fifth year senior Andre McDonald (6’8″, 278 lbs.) is a mammoth blocking tight end who has just 2 catches for 19 yards this season. It’s a very thin group of receivers.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan has two guys who can be consistent deep threats, and another who has the speed to do so. Gallon has been outstanding this year and was one of the top couple receivers in the conference, while Funchess is simply a matchup nightmare. The other guys aren’t very scary, but Chesson, Dileo, and Butt can all be good secondary targets and move the chains. Meanwhile, Kansas State has a guy who can blow up in the form of Lockett, plus a somewhat dangerous slot guy in Thompson. In a couple closely contested shootouts against Big 12 opponents, Lockett has gone over 230 yards (237 against Texas, 278 against Oklahoma), and he’s the guy that quarterbacks Jake Waters and Daniel Sams will look to if things get rough. If the Wildcats can move the ball consistently on the ground, they’ll settle for trying to win the game without putting the ball in the air too much. Tight ends have hurt Michigan in a few games this year (Minnesota’s Maxx Williams, Iowa’s C.J. Fiedorowicz, Ohio State’s Jeff Heuerman), but that shouldn’t be a persistent problem in this game. It’s a tall task to stop Lockett, but he’s the key to their passing game.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan