4Apr 2014
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| Devin Gardner has gone from catching touchdown passes against Alabama to likely throwing them for Alabama’s offensive coordinator. |
Every team is different, but I wanted to take a stab at what kind of production we can expect from new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier while he’s here in Ann Arbor. I looked at his last five years, which he spent with Washington (2009-2011) and then Alabama (2012-2013). I then averaged those seasons together to come up with a rough estimate of what types of numbers the Wolverines will put up. The player listed with the projection is my early guess at the depth chart for this upcoming fall.
Quarterback (Jake Locker, Keith Price, AJ McCarron):
230/395, 2800 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
184/332, 2265 yards, 17 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
242/362, 3063 yards, 33 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
211/314, 2933 yards, 30 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
226/336, 3063 yards, 28 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
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2014 Devin Gardner projection: 219/348, 62.9%, 2825 yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
2013 Devin Gardner stats: 208/345, 60.3%, 2960 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
Running Back #1 (Chris Polk, Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon):
226 carries, 1113 yards, 5 touchdowns
260 carries, 1415 yards, 9 touchdowns
293 carries, 1488 yards, 12 touchdowns
204 carries, 1322 yards, 17 touchdowns
207 carries, 1235 yards, 14 touchdowns
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2014 Derrick Green projection: 238 carries, 1315 yards, 11 touchdowns
2013 Fitzgerald Toussaint stats: 185 carries, 648 yards, 13 touchdowns
Running Back #2 (Demitrius Bronson, Jesse Callier, T.J. Yeldon, Kenyan Drake):
19 carries, 89 yards, 0 touchdowns
77 carries, 433 yards, 0 touchdowns
47 carries, 260 yards, 1 touchdown
175 carries, 1108 yards, 12 touchdowns
92 carries, 694 yards, 8 touchdowns
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2014 De’Veon Smith projection: 82 carries, 517 yards, 4 touchdowns
2013 Derrick Green stats: 83 carries, 270 yards, 2 touchdowns
Wide Receiver #1 (Jermaine Kearse, Amari Cooper):
50 catches, 866 yards, 8 touchdowns
63 catches, 1005 yards, 12 touchdowns
47 catches, 699 yards, 7 touchdowns
58 catches, 999 yards, 11 touchdowns
45 catches, 736 yards, 4 touchdowns
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2014 Devin Funchess projection: 53 catches, 861 yards, 8 touchdowns
2013 Jeremy Gallon stats: 89 catches, 1373 yards, 9 touchdowns
Wide Receiver #2 (Devin Aguilar, D’Andre Goodwin, Kevin Norwood):
42 catches, 593 yards, 5 touchdowns
44 catches, 530 yards, 4 touchdowns
41 catches, 611 yards, 6 touchdowns
29 catches, 469 yards, 4 touchdowns
38 catches, 568 yards, 7 touchdowns
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2014 Jehu Chesson projection: 39 catches, 554 yards, 5 touchdowns
2013 Devin Funchess stats: 49 catches, 748 yards, 6 touchdowns
Wide Receiver #3 (James Johnson, Devin Aguilar, Kasen Williams, Kenny Bell, DeAndrew White):
39 catches, 422 yards, 3 touchdowns
28 catches, 352 yards, 2 touchdowns
36 catches, 427 yards, 6 touchdowns
17 catches, 431 yards, 3 touchdowns
32 catches, 534 yards, 4 touchdowns
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2014 Amara Darboh projection: 30 catches, 433 yards, 4 touchdowns
2013 Jehu Chesson stats: 15 catches, 221 yards, 1 touchdown
Tight End #1 (Kavario Middleton, Marlion Barnett, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Michael Williams, O.J. Howard):
26 catches, 257 yards, 3 touchdowns
4 catches, 31 yards, 0 touchdowns
41 catches, 538 yards, 6 touchdowns
24 catches, 183 yards, 4 touchdowns
14 catches, 269 yards, 2 touchdowns
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2014 Jake Butt projection: 22 catches, 256 yards, 3 touchdowns
2013 Jake Butt stats: 17 catches, 235 yards, 2 touchdowns
Tight End #2 (Chris Izbicki, Michael Hartvigson, Kelly Johnson, Brian Vogler):
3 catches, 7 yards, 1 touchdown
2 catches, 16 yards, 1 touchdown
8 catches, 30 yards, 1 touchdown
5 catches, 39 yards, 0 touchdowns
8 catches, 71 yards, 1 touchdown
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2014 A.J. Williams projection: 5 catches, 33 yards, 1 touchdown
2013 A.J. Williams stats: 1 catch, 2 yards, 1 touchdown
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| Jeremy Gallon set several records this season. |
Here’s a link to my 2013 Season Predictions, which were posted at the end of August. This might be more fun for me than for you, but it’s interesting to me to see how things played out this year.
LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 900 yards
Actual: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 658 yards
Thoughts: The offensive line was worse than anyone expected it to be, and Toussaint struggled to average 3.5 yards/carry. The next highest total was Devin Gardner’s 483 yards.
LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Jeremy Gallon, 1100 yards
Actual: Jeremy Gallon, 1373 yards
Thoughts: Gallon had an outstanding season and goes down in the record books with the top yardage output by any receiver in Michigan history, surpassing Braylon Edwards’s 1,330 yards in 2004. I expected him to have a very good season due to the Gardner-Gallon chemistry, but this was more explosive than anyone probably envisioned.
LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: James Ross III, 90 tackles
Actual: Raymon Taylor, 86 tackles
Thoughts: It’s bad news when a cornerback leads the team in tackles, especially when that tackle total is so high. Opposing quarterbacks completed a lot of passes in front Taylor. Ross missed the second half of the Iowa game and the entire Ohio State game, so I’m pretty confident that he would have led the team in tackles if he had remained healthy.
LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Frank Clark, 8 sacks
Actual: Frank Clark and Cameron Gordon, 5 sacks (tie)
Thoughts: Clark started off slowly before turning on the jets a little bit in the middle of the season, but his season was somewhat of a disappointment considering all the offseason hype. Gordon started off quickly but lost some playing time once Jake Ryan returned midseason.
ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Taylor Lewan and Jeremy Gallon
Actual: Taylor Lewan was chosen by the Coaches and the Media. Devin Funchess and Blake Countess were chosen by the Media only.
Thoughts: Lewan was an obvious choice, and Gallon was robbed after conference finishes of #2 in receptions, #2 in yards, and #3 in touchdowns. Funchess earned his accolades as a tight end despite playing mostly at wide receiver, and Countess might be the Comeback Player of the Year in the conference after tearing his ACL in 2012. Nobody else on the team really had an argument to earn First Team honors.
LEADING SCORER (NON-QB, NON-KICKER)
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 12 touchdowns
Actual: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 13 touchdowns
Thoughts: Toussaint ended up scoring 78 points on 13 rushing touchdowns, while I thought he would score 10 rushing and 2 receiving touchdowns, leaving him with 72 points. Gallon was next with 54 total points.
BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Jehu Chesson
Actual: Jake Butt
Thoughts: Chesson had an okay year with several devastating blocks, some nice plays on special teams coverage, and 15 catches for 221 yards and 1 touchdown. But I think Butt deserves this award as he improved as a blocker and became a reliable receiving target with 20 catches for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns.
BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: James Ross
Actual: I don’t even know who to pick here. Perhaps the answer here is Blake Countess, but I don’t believe I even thought of him as being in the running since he was a starter as a true freshman in 2011. You could probably make an argument for Ross, Cam Gordon, or Frank Clark, who are the three guys I mentioned considering back in August.
Thoughts: Ross nearly led the team in tackles and might have surpassed 100 if he had been healthy. Gordon and Clark tied for the team lead in sacks. I don’t really see any other legitimate options here, although we saw glimpses of what Chris Wormley, Willie Henry, Ben Gedeon, and Jarrod Wilson can do.
MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Jack Miller
Actual: Jack Miller?
Thoughts: Again, I’m not sure whom to pick here. Miller started the first several games at center before being benched, never to see the field again. There was lots of disappointment to go around due to the underachieving offense (Devin Gardner, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Taylor Lewan, Kyle Kalis, even Devin Funchess). I guess Miller wins because he was really the only starter to get permanently benched, but I’m open to arguments.
MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Jarrod Wilson
Actual: Courtney Avery
Thoughts: This is another tough choice, but Wilson made some nice plays early in the season. Avery proved to be kind of a lost cause at cornerback and safety, where he didn’t really make one significant play all season except half of a sack against Michigan State. Otherwise, he was invisible except when guys were running past him. He went from a good nickel corner in 2011 to an okay one in 2012 to a liability at two different positions in 2013.
FINAL RECORD
Central Michigan: Win
Notre Dame: Win
Akron: Win
UConn: Win
Minnesota: Win
Penn State: Win Loss
Indiana: Win
Michigan State: Win Loss
Nebraska: Loss
Northwestern: Win
Iowa: Win Loss
Ohio State: Loss
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Prediction: 10-2
Actual: 7-5 (7-6 after bowl game)
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| Kansas State returner Tramaine Thompson is dangerous with the ball in his hands. |
MICHIGAN
Starters: The Wolverines are in pretty bad shape when it comes to special teams, but it could be worse. Fifth year senior placekicker Brendan Gibbons has been ruled out of the bowl game with a groin injury, and senior punter Will Hagerup has been suspended for the entire season, so all the kicking duties will be up to junior Matt Wile (6’2″, 216 lbs.). Wile is pretty experienced for being a backup punter and kicker, but when it comes to kicking field goals, he hasn’t been in many pressure situations. Wile is 1/3 on field goals this year, 5/5 on extra points, and averages 40.6 yards/punt. He’s been the kickoff guy all year and gets a 49.3% touchback rate. Sophomore Dennis Norfleet (5’7″, 169 lbs.) has 36 kickoff returns for 850 yards and a 23.6-yard average. Fifth year senior Jeremy Gallon (5’8″, 184 lbs.) and senior Drew Dileo (5’10”, 180 lbs.) have combined for 12 punt returns and 76 yards, so they’re not much of a threat.
Backups: Redshirt freshman Kenny Allen (6’3″, 226 lbs.) will be the backup kicker and punter, and he has 1 punt this year for 51 yards. Dileo has averaged 19.2 yards on 5 returns, and redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson (6’3″, 196 lbs.) has averaged 18 yards on 2 returns.
KANSAS STATE
Starters: The Wildcats have two excellent returners. One is fifth year senior punt returner Tramaine Thompson (5’8″, 167 lbs.), who has averaged 20.2 yards/return this year with a long of 79 yards; teams respect him so much that they’ve only given him a chance to return 9 punts. Junior Tyler Lockett (5’11”, 175 lbs.) is the kick returner with a 25.5-yard average, and while he hasn’t yet returned a kickoff for a touchdown in 2013, he had 2 scores in each of the past two seasons. Redshirt junior Mark Krause (5’11”, 218 lbs.) averages 41.3 yards/punt and has landed 17 inside the 20-yard line. Redshirt sophomore Jack Cantele (6’0″, 193 lbs.) is 11/13 on field goals and 40/41 on extra points, but he was injured prior to KSU’s final regular season game and may not be back for the bowl game.
Backups: Thompson has returned 2 kickoffs this year, but one was for a 96-yard touchdown. Backup kicker Ian Patterson (5’11”, 233 lbs.), a redshirt freshman, is 2/3 on field goals and 8/8 on extra points; he has also taken over kickoff duties, where he has a touchback rate almost twice as high as Cantele’s.
THE TAKEAWAY
The Wolverines haven’t been particularly strong on special teams under Brady Hoke, but they haven’t been terrible, either. They did block a punt and return it for a touchdown against Central Michigan, and the game-tying end-of-regulation field goal against Northwestern was the #4 play in the Big Ten this year, according to BTN Live. Unfortunately, battle-tested Brendan Gibbons is out, and Wile has been erratic as a kicker and as a punter. Michigan’s return games have been exciting but fruitless with Norfleet, Gallon, and Dileo. Meanwhile, Kansas State has a couple all-conference-caliber returners in Lockett and Thompson, and Cantele is a solid kicker if healthy. The Wolverines did allow a punt return touchdown to South Carolina’s Ace Sanders in last year’s bowl game, so they’ve been susceptible to special teams breakdowns at times. Wile might be able to negate Lockett’s return abilities because he’s pretty good at kicking touchbacks, and Michigan has some aggressive players on punt coverage, but overall, this is looking like an advantage for . . .
ADVANTAGE: Kansas State
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| Tyler Lockett is the key to Kansas State’s passing game. |
MICHIGAN
Starters: The diminutive fifth year senior Jeremy Gallon (5’8″, 184 lbs.) is the go-to guy, and he had an all-conference season with 80 catches, 1284 yards, and 9 touchdowns. He can be effective on just about any route – screens, hitches, square ins, fades, double moves, jump balls, etc. Aside from his lack of height (which he makes up for with his leaping ability and the timing of those leaps), he doesn’t have truly blazing speed, so he sometimes pulls away before getting tracked down in a foot race. The other starting wide receiver is sophomore Devin Funchess (6’5″, 235 lbs.), who made all-conference listed as a tight end but rarely plays it anymore; he has 47 catches for 727 yards and 6 scores. Funchess is Michigan’s bubble screen guy, leaps over tacklers sometimes, runs an occasional end around, and can beat teams deep. The de facto starting tight end is freshman Jake Butt (6’6″, 246 lbs.), who has come on late in the season to catch 17 balls for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. Butt can do a little bit of everything between blocking, catching, and running.
Backups: Redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson (6’3″, 196 lbs.) started a little bit early in the year before Funchess’s blocking became too big of a problem at tight end, and while Chesson’s playing time has dropped a little bit, he’s actually improved his route running and ability to adjust to the ball in the air. He has 13 catches for 213 yards and 1 touchdown. Senior Drew Dileo (5’10”, 180 lbs.) is the only other significant receiving threat, but he’s a possession guy who usually works over the middle. Occasionally, senior Jeremy Jackson (6’3″, 209 lbs.) or redshirt senior Joe Reynolds (6’1″, 196 lbs.) will pop up for a catch, but they’ve totaled just 10 catches for 140 yards and 0 scores this year. Sophomore A.J. Williams (6’6″, 265 lbs.) and redshirt junior Jordan Paskorz (6’3″, 255 lbs.) are the “blocking” tight ends that struggle to block, and while they’ll be on the field a fair amount, they have just 1 total catch.
KANSAS STATE
Starters: The clear leader of the receiving corps is junior Tyler Lockett (5’11”, 175 lbs.), who has 71 catches for 1,146 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season. Lockett has made a lot of big catches for the Wildcats and can be a real threat to the secondary on deep routes. Fifth year senior Tramaine Thompson (5’8″, 167 lbs.) is also a big-play guy from the slot with 28 catches for 495 yards (17.7 yards/catch) and 5 touchdowns. Junior Curry Sexton (5’11”, 183 lbs.) is the other receiver in K-State’s three-wide attack, and he’s been more of a possession guy with 36 catches for 409 yards. Redshirt junior tight end Zach Trujillo is rarely targeted, but he has 5 catches for 111 yards and 1 touchdown.
Backups: Senior Torell Miller (6’3″, 213 lbs.) is a former safety who was expected to start this year in place of Sexton, but he’s been relegated to backup duty and 11 catches, 106 yards, and 1 touchdown. Redshirt sophomore Kyle Klein (6’4″, 210 lbs.) is a former defensive end who has 5 catches for 59 yards on the season. Fifth year senior Andre McDonald (6’8″, 278 lbs.) is a mammoth blocking tight end who has just 2 catches for 19 yards this season. It’s a very thin group of receivers.
THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan has two guys who can be consistent deep threats, and another who has the speed to do so. Gallon has been outstanding this year and was one of the top couple receivers in the conference, while Funchess is simply a matchup nightmare. The other guys aren’t very scary, but Chesson, Dileo, and Butt can all be good secondary targets and move the chains. Meanwhile, Kansas State has a guy who can blow up in the form of Lockett, plus a somewhat dangerous slot guy in Thompson. In a couple closely contested shootouts against Big 12 opponents, Lockett has gone over 230 yards (237 against Texas, 278 against Oklahoma), and he’s the guy that quarterbacks Jake Waters and Daniel Sams will look to if things get rough. If the Wildcats can move the ball consistently on the ground, they’ll settle for trying to win the game without putting the ball in the air too much. Tight ends have hurt Michigan in a few games this year (Minnesota’s Maxx Williams, Iowa’s C.J. Fiedorowicz, Ohio State’s Jeff Heuerman), but that shouldn’t be a persistent problem in this game. It’s a tall task to stop Lockett, but he’s the key to their passing game.
ADVANTAGE: Michigan
