This was bad. I want to get this out of the way first. I don’t like it when people say “This is inexcusable!” I will totally forgive Jim Harbaugh and Don Brown if they beat Ohio State. But you can’t just lay an egg against a rival – a terrible rival with a first-year coach who just lost to Rutgers – and walk away largely unscathed. This is probably the worst loss of Jim Harbaugh’s career, even though perhaps the 2015 loss was more heartbreaking, considering it took place with :00 seconds left on the clock. At least you could see this one coming.
The elephant in the room. Joe Milton looked good. He completed 15/22 passes for 225 yards and 1 touchdown, while running 8 times for 52 yards and 1 touchdown. I thought he would look shaky, and he didn’t. Yes, there were some mistakes, but he also made some very nice plays. Obviously, the arm strength is impressive, but he didn’t really complete any deep shots. The throws he hit were in the short and intermediate areas. It was a good debut for a starting QB.
It’s 2020 and nobody knows anything, so here are my wild guesses for what we’ll see this year.
LEADING RUSHER Zach Charbonnet led the team in rushing as a true freshman last year with 729 yards. I do think Chris Evans will steal some of his carry share from last year, with Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum lurking, but Charbonnet should get the plurality of the opportunities. Prediction: Zach Charbonnet, 498 yards
Hit the jump for the rest of the prognostications.
Name: Joe Milton Height: 6’5″ Weight: 243 lbs. High school: Olympia (FL) Olympia Position: Quarterback Class: Redshirt sophomore Jersey number: #5 Last year: I ranked Milton #55 and said he would be a backup quarterback (LINK). He completed 3/7 passes for 59 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception; he also ran 5 times for 16 yards and 1 touchdown. TTB Rating: 85
WHAT?!?!?! THE STARTING QUARTERBACK IS RANKED #16?!?!?!
Yeah, I didn’t have Milton pegged as the starting quarterback. This countdown was put together long before Dylan McCaffrey opted out and planned to transfer. This is a pretty high ranking for a backup quarterback, largely because McCaffrey hasn’t made it through a season healthy.
It’s a low ranking for a starter.
I’ve overanalyzed Milton to the point of exhaustion (LINK), and obviously my interpretation of the quarterback battle did not mesh with the coaching staff’s. Milton has looked jittery and made poor decisions at almost every opportunity so far in his college career, and the only area where he looks like a plus player is in the run game. Even some of his completions have come when throwing jump balls into double coverage to Nico Collins, making guys dive to catch slants, etc.
On the plus side, Milton is absolutely an enticing athlete with very impressive arm strength and above average speed. Some people – including Devin Gardner, who worked with Milton in the off-season – have said Milton is Cam Newton-like in his physcality. And Milton has a stronger arm than Newton.
If Milton made tremendous strides in the off-season, then he certainly could have overtaken McCaffrey, who had his own struggles. But buying into that notion requires us to suspend what we saw on the field and believe in word trickling out of workouts. And we all know that off-season hype is overblown more often than not.
All that being said, Milton is now The Man. The hope is that he is a difference-maker from the quarterback position, something Michigan has not really had in many years. Denard Robinson was a difference-maker with his feet but struggled as a passer. Devin Gardner had a few games where he looked like a superstar, but that was not consistent.
I expect inconsistency, because that’s what we’ve seen so far. Milton has been inaccurate, and I go to the School of Mike Leach, who believes you’re either accurate or you’re not. I don’t expect Milton to start completed 65% or 67% of his passes, but if he can be around 61-62%, hit some deep balls, and make plays with his feet, Michigan could be in business.
I have previously broken down Dylan McCaffrey as I evaluate the 2020 quarterback battle (HERE and HERE).
Now here’s a look at Joe Milton’s performance against a few opponents in blowouts. It’s important to keep in mind that Milton was often working with backups, and practice reps for the #3 guy are limited.
As a reminder, I awarded grades on the following scale:
+1: Good play that not everyone can make
0: Average play that an average player can make
-1: Poor play
Click on the play number for the YouTube link.
PLAY 1: The line doesn’t do Milton any favors – especially right guard Griffin Korican, who allows pressure that prevents Milton from stepping up – but a quick throw on an arrow route gets batted down as Milton tries to throw it through the defensive end. Milton grade: -1
