Tag: Kevin Koger

Review: 2009 Season Predictions

Jordan Kovacs went from an afterthought to a Freshman All-American.

One of the reasons I started this blog was to record my predictions, in order to look back on them at a later date. Well, that date has come. It’s a few weeks prior to the 2010 season, and I can’t help but think back on how I did last year (2009 Season Predictions here). I didn’t do too badly, but there were a couple surprises.

Starting Quarterback
Last year’s pick: Tate Forcier. I said he’d start every game.

I should have picked . . . Forcier. He started every game.

Leading Rusher
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor. I said he’d end the season with about 900 yards.

I should have picked . . . Minor. Minor only had 502 yards, but he missed three full games (plus parts of several others) due to injuries.

Leading Receiver
Last year’s pick: Greg Mathews. I said he’d catch 50 balls for 650 yards.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Mathews only caught 29 passes as the coaching staff continues to de-emphasize outside wide receivers. The leading receiver was slot receiver Roundtree, who caught 32 balls for 434 yards.

Leading Tackler
Last year’s pick: Obi Ezeh.

I should have picked . . . Steve Brown. Middle linebacker Ezeh fought through a back injury and inconsistency to finish third with 69 tackles. SAM linebacker Brown brought down 80 ballcarriers, while redshirt freshman safety Jordan Kovacs made 75 stops.

Leading Sacker
Last year’s pick: Brandon Graham. I said he’d finish at 10 sacks.

I should have picked . . . Graham. The obvious choice was obvious. Graham ended the season with 10.5 sacks, or 1/2 more of a sack than I thought. Damn half sacks!

Leading Interceptor
Last year’s pick: Donovan Warren. I said he’d snatch 3 errant passes.

I should have picked . . . Warren. He actually picked off 4 passes, so once again, I overestimated. If he had only picked off 3 like I told him to, then maybe he’d have stuck around for an extra year! Then again, that pick-off against Indiana really saved Michigan’s ass.

All-Big Ten First Team
Last year’s picks: Brandon Graham and Zoltan Mesko.

I should have picked . . . Graham, Mesko, and Donovan Warren. Graham and Mesko were voted All-Big Ten first team by the coaches. Those two plus Warren were chosen for the first team by the media. Two for three isn’t bad.

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor.

I should have picked . . . Minor. He scored 8 rushing touchdowns (48 points). The next closest scorer was Carlos Brown with 5 touchdowns (30 points). Placekicker Jason Olesnavage scored 75 points, but kickers are almost always the leading scorers, which is why I didn’t allow myself to pick him.

Breakout Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Junior Hemingway.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Hemingway only caught 16 passes, while Roundtree emerged as the go-to receiver late in the season and perhaps the front-runner for the next wearer of the coveted #1 jersey.

Breakout Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Troy Woolfolk.

I should have picked . . . Jordan Kovacs. I don’t feel bad about the Woolfolk pick. He made 46 tackles and I think he surprised a lot of people with his solid play at both deep safety and cornerback. Despite switching to cornerback halfway through the season, it seemed that opponents targeted Donovan Warren more often than Woolfolk. Still, Kovacs was a Freshman All-American, started eight games, and finished second on the team with 75 tackles.

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Kevin Koger. I said he wouldn’t catch any more than 15 passes.

I should have picked . . . I’m not sure. Greg Mathews? Maybe Koger was the right pick. I said he’d catch 15 passes or less, and the spiteful bastard caught 16 just to piss me off. Regardless, he dropped a lot of passes in the second half of the season and got phased out of the offense a bit. It’s arguable who was the most disappointing, but I’m satisfied with my pick. I think most Michigan fans expected more production from the tight end spot.

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Ryan Van Bergen. I said he’d end up with about 20 tackles and a couple sacks.

I should have picked . . . Obi Ezeh. Maybe Jonas Mouton. Those inside linebackers made a lot of Michigan fans sad. It might be a little harsh to put Ezeh here, since he had a bad back and everything. But it’s one of the two. Both were benched at various points, and Mouton had the same number of tackles as cornerback Donovan Warren. That’s not good. Meanwhile, Van Bergen basically doubled my predictions – he had 40 tackles and 5 sacks. Good for him.

In Summary . . .
Well, the results are a mixed bag. Out of twelve predictions, six of them were spot-on. That’s 50% (I’d like to thank my 4th grade teacher for the math skills). Technically, I guess I should get a slight deduction for only picking Graham and Mesko as All-Big Ten First Team; the coaches agreed with me, but the media added Warren. That’s 49%. But I think I should get a few points for Koger as Most Disappointing Offensive Player, as well as a slight bump for Woolfolk as Breakout Defensive Player. That puts me at right around 55%.

So . . . 55% of the time, I’m right every time. Perhaps I should not be trusted.

Go blue!

2010 Countdown: #63 Steve Watson

Name: Steve Watson
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 257 lbs.
High school: Mullen High School in Cherry Hills Village, CO
Position: Defensive end
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #81
Last year: I ranked Watson #64 and said he’d contribute on special teams and see spot duty on defense. He was mainly a special teams player and made 5 tackles.

Having been buried on the depth chart behind Kevin Koger, Martell Webb, and Brandon Moore, Watson switched to defense during the spring of 2009. Greg Robinson was a new defensive coordinator then and needed a few players to play the defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid role that was eventually locked down by freshman Craig Roh. Brandon Herron was Roh’s primary backup, and Watson settled for mop-up duty against teams like Delaware State and Illinois. He finished the season with 5 total tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 1 pass breakup as the third-string OLB. He was also a part-time contributor on special teams, but only against the B-list teams on Michigan’s roster.

For spring of 2010, Watson switched roles again to 5-tech defensive end. Assuming no further position changes, he’ll be playing exclusively with his hand on the ground. Despite the position change, Watson will probably still be no higher than third on the depth chart. The starter will likely be Ryan Van Bergen with Anthony Lalota as the primary backup. A freshman like Jibreel Black could also work himself into the mix. Buried on the depth chart at yet another position, I expect 2010 to be Watson’s final campaign as a Wolverine. He probably won’t be offered a fifth year of eligibility by the coaching staff.

Prediction for 2010: Special teams contributor, spot duty on defense

2010 Countdown: #66 Brandon Moore

Spring Roster Tidbits

Ryan Van Bergen: Breakout year coming?

MGoBlog and The Wolverine have done a good job of breaking down the spring roster, so I won’t waste your time or mine in parsing the roster much further.

There are a few noteworthy bits from today’s press conference and the roster that I would like to highlight, however.

– Regarding the quarterback position, Rodriguez admitted that Denard Robinson is going to start seeing reps at wide receiver. While he stressed that Robinson is still going to compete at the quarterback position, this seems to be the beginning of the transition from the quarterback position to receiver that many of us have been expecting. I expect Robinson to be a full-time receiver by 2011.

– The popular number of pounds to gain this offseason was 17. Linebacker Isaiah Bell (237), offensive tackle Mark Huyge (305), tight end Brandon Moore (260), and offensive guard Patrick Omameh (293) all gained this amount.

– It seems apparent that the rumor we heard about the offensive and defensive lines is true: Rodriguez wants them to be bigger than they have been for the past two seasons. There’s really no other way to explain the fact that there are now five (5!) offensive linemen over 300 lbs. when last year’s only 300 pounder was freshman Quinton Washington. With almost six months left until the season, a couple other guys might get there before September, too.

– Tight ends Kevin Koger (251), Martell Webb (257), and Brandon Moore (260) are all getting in the “hefty” range for tight ends. There were a lot of people who thought Rodriguez was moving toward using tight ends heavily. This is significant evidence to the contrary. These guys seem to be blocking tight ends in the making.

– Ryan Van Bergen and Steve Watson are both listed as defensive ends. Van Bergen was a DT last year, and Watson was the third-string Quick end behind Craig Roh and Brandon Herron. Watson is likely to ride the bench once again, but as I expected, Van Bergen seems to be Brandon Graham’s replacement at DE.

– Junior Hemingway is 227 lbs. That’s too heavy for a receiver who wasn’t that fast to begin with. If he continues to play at 220+ pounds, he won’t be any kind of deep threat. This bodes unwell for Michigan’s downfield passing game.

Recruiting Roundup: Tight Ends

Alex Smith wrinkles his nose as he watches Mike Barwis eat an opposing band member whole.