3Oct 2012
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| Desmond Morgan (image via AnnArbor.com) |
Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Jeremy Gallon. Gallon had a couple decent runs and a few good catch-and-runs. Good things tend to happen when Michigan gets the ball in his hands. Three catches and 2 rushing attempts are too few touches.
Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . good defenses. Because most of the time, they make Denard Robinson look lost.
Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Brennen Beyer. I know Beyer has been injured, but I’m looking forward to his return. That will allow Jake Ryan to play SAM linebacker and move around occasionally without having to play defensive end on running downs.
Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Mario Ojemudia. He’s just not ready right now. I know he’s in there because of necessity, but he’s not strong enough or big enough to make any plays right now. It would be nice if Michigan could get enough depth where they don’t have to play guys like this every year.
Play of the game . . . Thomas Gordon’s interception. Gordon made a leaping catch of an Everett Golson pass in the endzone, preventing a scoring opportunity for the Fighting Irish.
MVP of the game . . . there aren’t a whole lot of options, because nobody really had an exceptional night. I’m going to go with sophomore linebacker Desmond Morgan, who I thought had a very good game. I haven’t rewatched the game, but in watching on Saturday night, I thought he was very solid in run support. I also thought Quinton Washington got off the ball really well; this was the best performance I’ve seen out of him.
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| This will not end well. (image via USA Today) |
I wish I were wrong. I pretty much had the lowest score prediction in the Michigan blogosphere, and even I didn’t expect the sloppy snoozefest that occurred on Saturday night. I was criticized on my game preview for picking a 24-20 score because the offenses were powerful and the defenses weren’t. Well . . . we saw what happened. The defenses were okay, but the offenses aren’t where they should be for either school. Notre Dame should be more explosive for offensive genius Brian Kelly, and Michigan should be better with a senior quarterback. Brian at MGoBlog sort of criticized my understatement that this would be Denard’s worst game against Notre Dame, but I guess I wasn’t clear enough; the pressure up front was bound to make Denard jumpy. I just expected more breakdowns in the defensive backfield.
Denard Robinson is a terrible (passing) quarterback. He was, is, and probably always will be. I have been saying this for years. He’s capable of good games (Ohio State in 2011, for example), but that’s not the norm when he faces decent teams. Over the past two seasons, he has 26 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. Last night he was 13/24 for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions; he also fumbled twice and got sacked 3 times. There’s no excuse for the poor decisions he makes, the poor footwork, the turnovers, and the inaccuracy. Even his Hail Mary interception at the end of the first half was terrible because he overthrew every single dude on the team; you’re not trying to beat the opponent deep in that situation – you’re trying to complete the pass and get yards after the catch. And all that stuff happened with Notre Dame missing starting safety Jamoris Slaughter and starting corner Lo Wood.
Vincent Smith and Al Borges d’oh. Michigan was moving the ball really well at one point in the first quarter, and then Al Borges had to go ahead and call that play where Vincent Smith throws the ball to the other team. That was a huge turning point in the game, because it seemed Michigan was on its way to scoring before that play. Of course, Smith should know better than to throw it, but he’s a running back. Hell, Michigan’s actual quarterback threw four picks of his own, so who’s to say that Denard wouldn’t have made the same poor decision? I thought Borges called an okay game, but that was a huge, huge mistake.
Hooray for Jeremy Gallon. I thought Gallon was pretty consistent throughout the night in all phases of the game. He made good decisions on punt returns, ran well after the catch, and had a couple nice designed runs.
J.T. Floyd rabble rabble rabble. He did not have a good game. He is not good. I take that back. He isn’t good at covering, he isn’t good at supporting the run, and he isn’t good at taking on blocks. However, he does have a knack for tackling wide receivers when they catch the ball in front of him. So there’s that.
Freshman safety anger. I hate hate hate playing freshman safeties. I’ve mentioned this before. All safeties should redshirt or be limited to special teams. Jarrod Wilson got caught flat-footed in the second quarter and then had to grab onto Tyler Eifert to prevent a touchdown pass. Pass interference, first down, then touchdown. Wilson also picked up a holding penalty on the ensuing kickoff. All that attrition in the defensive backfield over the past few years has really hurt the team.
WTF on Notre Dame’s touchdown? Notre Dame lined up in pro left with trips to the right on the 2-yard line.. Michigan put four guys down with Jake Ryan as the middle linebacker and safety Jordan Kovacs about 7 or 8 yards off the ball. This is problematic because a) Notre Dame has six blockers to block five guys and b) Jake Ryan isn’t a middle linebacker. Ryan’s read step took him to Notre Dame’s left (presumably because that’s where the uncovered gaps were), but he was also moving backward on the snap. Quarterback Tommy Rees simply took the shotgun snap and ran right behind his center and right guard, who were double-teaming Quinton Washington. Washington didn’t do a bad job of holding up, but that’s just setting up your defense to fail. Put Desmond Morgan or James Ross in there, and maybe your MIKE has a chance of making the right read.
Jake Ryan’s role needs to be re-evaluated. I think the coaching staff is asking too much of him. Sometimes he’s a SAM linebacker, sometimes he’s an inside linebacker, and sometimes they put him at defensive end, even in running situations. He can’t hold up at defensive end against the run. Leave him on the edge and then move him around in obvious passing situations to get after the quarterback. He’s a quality player in some aspects, but he’s not a freak athlete that can be moved around at will.
Where is Michigan now? Out of the top 25. And that’s probably where they deserve to be. They were overrated to begin the year, and now they’re probably in the range where they deserve to be. The loss of Junior Hemingway has hurt because Denard doesn’t have a go-to guy, and the lack of playmakers on the defensive line has turned this into a mediocre defense. The linebackers and safeties are fine, but the defensive line and cornerbacks are weaknesses right now.
Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
Michigan is #45 nationally in rush offense, but Denard Robinson accounts for 117 of the team’s 192.3 yards/game. The offensive line has generally struggled to create creases for anyone else. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is #23 in rushing defense, giving up 96.3 yards/game. They held Michigan State’s Le’Veon Bell to 77 yards on 19 carries (4.1 yards/attempt) and the entire Navy offense to 149 yards, a team that was #3 nationally in 2011 with 358 yards/game. The Fighting Irish have done a good job of recruiting in recent years, and they now have several very good players in the front seven. Denard Robinson has shown that he can run on these guys, but I have some concerns about whether the offensive line can hold up.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
After playing two cupcake defenses and one very good defense, Robinson is completing 54.6% of his passes for 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions; he’s the #39 rated passer in the country, thanks to some long completions. However, two of those interceptions have been returned for touchdowns. Michigan has its full complement of wide receivers, and the 6’4″ Devin Gardner leads the team in yards, touchdowns, and yards per catch. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are missing starting safety Jamoris Slaughter and starting cornerback Lo Wood for the season; the other starting corner Bennett Jackson had 2 interceptions against Purdue, and safety Zeke Motta isn’t much of a pass defender. Receivers should be able to get open, but the 3-4 defense will probably put some pressure on Robinson in the pocket; Notre Dame sacked Michigan State quarterback Andrew Maxwell four times last week. Defensive end Stephon Tuitt leads the country with 5 sacks and the team is sacking the quarterback 3.67 times per game. Big plays will be there both ways, but based on past performance, I think Robinson will make some big things happen through the air or by scrambling.
Advantage: Michigan
Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense
This matchup terrifies me, because Notre Dame has several running backs with a great deal of ability. Theo Riddick had 107 yards and 2 touchdowns against Navy; George Atkinson is averaging 9.5 yards/carry; Cierre Wood returned last week to run for 56 yards on 10 carries against MSU; and quarterback Everett Golson can run a little bit. Michigan has struggled on the inside, and both defensive end Brennen Beyer and defensive tackle Richard Ash are questionable to play due to injury. They’re #104 nationally against the run. Riddick and Wood are both capable running backs, but Atkinson is the wild card. He’s fast and physical and could be a huge game-breaker. I do not see this phase going well for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame Pass Offense
Golson is Notre Dame’s starter, but he’s backed up by a couple capable guys in Tommy Rees and Andrew Hendrix. The youngster is completing just 58% of his passes for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, so he’s not lighting the world on fire, but if the running game produces, he won’t have to win it through the air. The Fighting Irish have a handful of capable receivers, not just one guy to concentrate on like Michael Floyd the past few years. Tight end/wide receiver Tyler Eifert, receiver T.J. Jones, receiver DaVaris Daniels, receiver Robby Toma, and running back Theo Riddick all have between 6 and 9 receptions. Eifert, in particular, seems like a matchup problem because of his size (6’6″, 251 lbs.) and speed. Notre Dame gives up 2.67 sacks/game, and Golson holds onto the ball too long sometimes, but Michigan barely gets after the quarterback unless they use Jake Ryan as a rusher. Without starting cornerback Blake Countess, it might be a struggle for Michigan to cover each of the targets.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Roster Notes
Predictions