Lanknows.
LanknowsIn this grading scheme a B is meeting expectations. This considers: Michigan’s typical talent-level, current roster need, sensible roster management, and recruiting strategy.
QB: A- (Need 1, Got 1)
McCaffrey’s rankings fell a bit, but for reasons that don’t seem too worrisome. Landing a top 10 kid is the expectation, but M locked up one of their top 2-3 targets early enough to focus their attentions elsewhere.
RB: B- (Need 1, Got 2)
M doesn’t need any RBs but it’s a high turnover position where you take your shots. The play for Najee Harris didn’t pan out and 2 they got are substandard ranking-wise. But the fit is solid with Samuels a high-upside athlete and Taylor is a run-through-a-wall ‘program’ player. I have a bias towards short RBs and like what Taylor offers if the OL ever gets sorted out. They got a bowling ball and a bullet.
FB: B (Need 1, Got 1)
I won’t pretend to guess if Mason will be a good FB (or LB) or not.
WR: A (Need 2, Got 5 )
M doesn’t need 5 WRs – but sometimes classes don’t play out as hoped and you take the talent that presents itself. This class (and the one before it) all but ensure that the WR position is well stocked for years. DPJ alone warrants an A grade. M doesn’t get a lot of elite WRs and they’ve missed on the top in-state player more often than not.
While the rest of the class doesn’t have blue chip recruits they do offer an excellent mix of skills that complement the 2016 WR class. Black and Collins are big targets with the dreaded “not a burner” tag and appear redundant, but M clearly wanted someone to fill this role. Both come with impressive offer lists.
Martin may or may not be a bigger better version of Grant Perry or he may or may not be a smaller version of Erik Decker. Regardless he sounds like a guy who will help.
Brad Hawkins is the forgotten man in this class but remember his impressive offer list in 2016 — M got a free year of maturation and development from his season of prep school. 1 or 2 of these WRs will probably end up at DB
TE: B (Needed 0, Got 0)
M went for a handful of elite prospects and missed but wisely decided to not reach for more. As the TE position is already loaded, or overloaded, depending on your roster management views, they played this the right way.
OL: C+ (Needed 7, Got 5.5)
The main issue at OL is numbers because star ratings are particularly unreliable outside of the true blue chippers. M needs more interior players in 2018 and they need 1 or 2 guys to step up in 2017. Relative to their needs they did not take enough players. They did do a good job addressing the long-term need at OT and Ruiz is a HUGE get. However, the whiff on Isiah Wilson, ignoring some high rated recruits early in the process, and missing out on most of the blue chippers they thought they had a shot with leaves this position group wanting.
The half is an expected position switch from DL (e.g., Paea)
DL: A (Needed 5, Got 5.5)
One blue chipper (Solomon) on top of 3 other DT/SDE in the 4-star range (Jeter, Hudson, DIB), plus an instate DE likely to end up at strongside (CMH) should give Mattison more than enough ‘clay’ to mold into the next group of excellent DL prospects. Paea is another in-state kid who should help with depth at either interior DL or OL. Not closing with Tufele or Reitmeir is the only thing keeping this from A+…that and Solomon having “some maturing to do”…
Rush End: A- (Need 2, Got 2)
This is a spot M has really struggled to recruit well the last few years. The best they’ve had were a converted OLB sleeper (Clark) and jumbo 4-star DE (Charlton). While both ended up elite players, neither was a sure thing and took time to mold. I believe Luiji Villain is the highest rated true WDE they’ve had in a while. He also played well through the all-star games. Paye sounds like a high upside project.
LB: A (Need 3, Got 3)
M got 3 of the top 21 LBs per 247. The thing is they would likely trade any one of them for Willie Gay. Still, an excellent talent haul at another position that M has not recruited very well in recent history. Singleton in particular is a near blue-chipper (perhaps held back by injury).
DB: D+ (Need 6, Got 4)
If ever there was a season where M needed a true blue chip talent to come in and contribute right away this was it. The closest they got was Ambry Thomas, the #24 DB in the class per 247. And while Thomas may be underrated and M filled some other needs: long tall CB, versatile nickel, rangy FS, the end result in the secondary is below expectations both in talent and quantity. It is worrisome that M was not even on the radar for the vast majority of elite DB targets.
K/P: B (Need 1, Got 1)
They got a punter that they probably need.
Overall: A-
Pros: M addressed needs at almost every position group, landed 6 top 100 recruits, and kept quality high in a very large class (19 4-star recruits!). A lot of their commits seemed to have offer lists more impressive than their rankings. The class is in the 5-10 range that is a bit better than their typical range (10-15). Recruited WR, WDE, and LB better than they have in years. The class seems to be well rounded and filled with high character kids. Locked down in-state talent.
Cons: The class ranking is inflated by size, only two 5-star recruits, failure to address immediate needs at OL and DB. Mismanaged the Wilson/OT situation. Probably too many DL not enough OL and too many WR not enough DB but (these can be resolved with position changes.)
LanknowsThis is NOT the best WR class in Michigan history. <—– Punctuation at the end of the sentence.
Walker and Terrell were not only the #1 and #2 WR in the country, they were both top 20 overall players regardless of position. Most years it is literally impossible to do that well. Michigan certainly didn’t this year.
Terrell was higher rated than DPJ. Walker was too, and MUCH higher rated than either Collins or Black. Maybe there wasn’t a Martin or Dawkins analogue but did that matter? Terrell and Walker were both great players who lived up to their lofty recruiting rankings. Even if this class somehow matches them — they are using 5 scholarships to do it.
In this case it is no insult to call it the second best class.
DonAZThis is a very nicely done summary of the class.
Offensive line is an obvious point where another elite OT would have been nice. That said, I’m rather happy to see a true Center be targeted and secured.
You wrote: It is worrisome that M was not even on the radar for the vast majority of elite DB targets.
I wonder why that is? Perhaps because Harbaugh is mostly known as an offensive coach; perhaps because Michigan is not generally known as DB-University (DL, yes; DB, less so.) If Michigan’s defense continues to hold up as one of the nation’s best we start to draw that kind of talent from the Alabamas and USCs of the world.
LanknowsI think some of it is just the hand that was dealt talent-wise. There weren’t too many elite CBs this year that had much natural interest in Michigan. They prioritized Thomas – probably a wise move – and didn’t seem to chase a bunch of guys they weren’t going to get who were better. Right or wrong.
I do think they would have been wise to go after a couple more DBs who are maybe considered ‘projects’ like the kid who went to Syracuse. That doesn’t resolve the immediate need though.
I think they figured they were better off grabbing a 2018 recruit than a project – a defensible strategy.
WindyCityBlueWould have liked to see them land a quality TE in this class. No, it’s not a critical need looking at the roster right now, but in a 30 man class, you really need to address all position groups. Yeah, you have to go with what presents itself, but next year’s class will probably be only half this size, and we’ll either have to squeeze a TE in at the expense of something else, or go two years without one, which virtually guarantees a roster hole down the road. It’s especially surprising given Harbaugh’s supposed penchant for running a TE-heavy offense.
As far as the Oline, our problem is as much player development as it is numbers. If you’ve got sub-par coaching, you can only do so much by throwing more and more guys into the mix with the same coaches. If you’re struggling to produce a quality starting unit and decent backups with 18 scholarship offensive linemen, then you need to fire your Oline coach instead of taking more and more recruits from other positions to fuel a failed effort.
Solomon was the most important recruit in the class, by far. We badly needed a pure DT, not just guys who might develop into decent SDE-3 tech tweeners a few years down the road. We’re over-heavy on DE types, and we haven’t done a very good job of developing the ones we already have.
LanknowsDon’t see a problem with taking a TE in the next class. There should be very few roster needs beyond what wasn’t addressed in 2017 (DB, OL, TE) and whatever attrition occurs.
1 (QB, RB, WR, TE) = 4
2 (LB) = 2
4 (OL, DL, DB) = 12
Total = 18
Adjust with attrition as needed.
WindyCityBlueNot sure where you’re getting 18 at this point. We only have 9 guys in their final year in 2017, and only 11 RS juniors, of whom we’d have to ditch 8 or 9 to get to 18 slots (depending on whether we go into 2017 with an open slot) and that’s not happening.
Yes, some other attrition may occur, and probably will, but then those gaps will have to be addressed specifically, above and beyond the numbers you’ve totslled. I’m starting my thinking at more like 15 spots for 2018, and that gets to the point where some position will go begging.
LanknowsNormal attrition over one year.
Indeed, I would be surprised if the class didn’t hit 20.
LanknowsLess attrition would mean less need no? If you’re only replacing the 9 seniors what needs do you even have?
LanknowsExcellent player development can overcome numbers and numbers are a solution to overcome slow or inconsistent player development. Maybe Greg Frey resolves the OL performance issues and maybe it something inherent to scheme that makes it take a long time. I have no idea and (for the purposes of this discussion) don’t really care. Michigan must do everything it can to fix the OL. That includes more recruits ASAP.
Hopefully they find a grad transfer for the immediate need at OT – there appear to be some players out there who can at least give JBB, Ulizio, and Filiago some competition.
WindyCityBlueExcept that the two solutions are not in any way equal. The difference is that better player development is not a zero sum game, and doesn’t exact a cost at other position groups. Piling on extra recruits at OL does. It means you have fewer players to cover other positions. If you “fix” the OL that way, then you have to concede by the same argument that you have dimished your prospects at at least one other position group, and in the end may not have made the team any better overall.
LanknowsNo offense but this is nonsense WCB. Nobody is arguing against player development. The point is Michigan might not have it (in sufficient supply). So what are you going to do about that? Just hope it’ll happen? Or attack the problem from every angle?
Yes – it takes from other positions. Other positions (like RB and WR) that have an overabundant supply of players.
WindyCityBlueSorry, but where did I say that you were arguing against player development? Nowhere. You tried to argue that recruiting more and more players at a position to compensate for a poor batting average in development is just as effective a solution as improving your player development. That’s nonsense. As noted, it isn’t. And I’ve given my solution for the Oline. If Drevno is still not getting the job done after this year, fire him and hire someone who can. There are plenty of OL coaches out there getting much better performance than we are, with mainly 3 star talent. Someone who could be effective with a lot of 4 star talent would not be that hard to find and attract.
And it’s only your opinion that RB and WR have an overabundance of players. We only had two effective pass catchers at WR and no elite RBs last year, so why not pile more recruits on at those positions to try to improve that? Some people think that 20 scholarship Olinemen is excessive.
LanknowsI never argued numbers were “just as effective a solution as improving your player development.” I argued it is a strategy to mitigate the lack of it and/or the uncertainty of it. Your solution leaves no Plan B and assumes the replacement is better than the guy fired – often not the case.
It’s not an opinion that we have quality depth at RB and WR. We’ve seen Drake Harris and Mo Ways and Drake Johnson and Ty Isaac and Derrik Green play. They may not be great but they are serviceable players. Compare that situation to OL where we have to start true freshman every year.
Why are you insisting on elite talent at RB and WR but not OL?
LanknowsRuiz is more important than Soloman. I would argue Thomas is as well, given the immediate need at CB.
Would you rather have Gay or Solomon? Gay probably starts right away and Solomon will not, though I think 2018 depth chart may favor Solomon.
Villain could play more snaps and put up more impact plays than Soloman.
Whoever comes out of the OT heap may be a 4-year starter, but the fact I can’t name that one guy argues against them. Perhaps the most important recruit was one we didn’t get: Wilson.
…or Harris.
“Most important recruit” is an interesting debate. I don’t think the answer is so obvious.
WindyCityBlueI would rather have had Solomon, and it’s not even close. Gay would have been nice, but Singleton and Anthony are both high level, athletic guys who could easily contribute or even start this year. We had no one else in this class even close to Solomon’s level at a pure DT, and he is playing at a position where you really want to rotate guys, even in a close game against tough competition. Vilain is not going to play inside any time soon, and whether Hudson, Jeter and Irving-Bey are going to be playable their first year is very much a question.
As far as Ruiz, great get, but let’s just say, I really hope he ISN’T important this year. You don’t rotate on the OL, so the only way a guy like him is important is if he starts, which would mean a whole lot of bad shit happened ahead of him. I hope he plays this year and starts next year, but if we end up really needing him this fall, our Oline is probably in deep shit. It would probably mean that a couple of starters got hurt, or Bredeson and Onwenu are showing no improvement at all.
LanknowsMichigan has had Singleton and Anthony lined up for a while and still went all out for Gay. Telling.
Interesting that you don’t think 290-300 pound DTs can hack it at NT yet you’re happy to plug in ILBs at a position that goes to a DB that can tackle.
Jeter and Hudson are highly ranked DTs who, like Solomon, got elite offers (including Alabama). I would advise you again to stay away form the single-mindedly focusing on top 100 lists and website rankings. Who will be ready faster is speculative. Jeter’s an early enrollee. Hudson’s big.
Worth recalling the last sure-thing “pure DT” Michigan landed – Will Campbell. Worth recalling the last dominant “pure DT” Michigan played with – a former walk-on named Ryan Glasgow.
Lanknowsre: Ruiz — if your argument is immediate need, then Solomon is certainly not the most important recruit because he has almost zero chance of starting and will be behind NFL-bound vets. If it’s immediate need then the most important guys are the OTs.
Of course recruits are mostly needed for future years. If we are talking about 2018 and beyond I ask: Who the hell is playing OC?!? If it’s not Ruiz Michigan is in serious trouble.
Compare that situation to DT. Michigan loses Hurst but will get back Mone, Dwumfour, and all the other ’17 recruits and ’18 recruits. Solomon is probably a starter in 2018 but again he will face competition from other elite prospects and has demonstrated some questions off-field. DeShawn Hand looked like a stud when he was a recruit, and is a very good player, but he still isn’t a starter.
Finally — our OL is already in deep shit, as you put it. There’s a damn good chance that Cole or Bredeson have to move to OT and that Ruiz has to start. You might even look at it as a competition between Ruiz and the other freshman for a starting spot since it appears very likely that at least one freshman will be starting.*
*The scenarios where this isn’t true require multiple people from a group including JBB, Ulizio, Kugler to make big leaps. Or grad transfers…
LanknowsDon’t think we’re going to ever agree on this “pure DT” vs “DT/SDE” debate. Mattison made clear there was hardly a difference in his scheme, and Durkin and Brown seem to be on the same script.
While I do agree that we need some pure interior players (for NT mostly), I think we have them in Mone, Hurst, Dwumfour, and (apparently Lawrence Marshall). That Marshall is at DT now after being recruited as a WDE should be instructive enough.
As for this class I would expect “pure DT” will be more than covered between Jeter, Hudson, Paea and DIB. Jeter and Hudson in particular sound like excellent recruits that fans are sleeping on a bit.
Playing 300 pound dudes at SDE is a luxury. Solomon makes it more likely Michigan can do that. Solomon is a luxury.
ThunderI don’t have a whole lot to say, since I’ll be making a post like this next week on the front page. But thanks for posting! It’s well thought out, and I can’t really argue with too much.
LanknowsInteresting article about characteristics of sleeper recruits.
The one I’ve talked about many times before:
Height is the crucial one, in part because at most positions it really doesn’t matter that much. The top linebackers these days are usually much shorter than the established prototype because tall guys usually lack the lateral range to play in space and still get low and blow things up between the tackles as modern linebackers must do.
This applies at other positions as well. Short guards can often still get low and drive DTs off the ball, especially in schemes that emphasize reach blocking or double teams. Shorter corners might technically be a little easier to beat with the perfect pass, but then taller corners are often going to get beat by the same pass. The range of passes that occur that the taller corner is going to stop that will beat the shorter corner is pretty small. What’s more, when you lower your restrictions on corners to allow players that are “only” 5-10 or so it greatly increases the pool of athletes that are capable of sticking in man coverage tightly enough that those precision passes to big targets even matter.
The value of the big corner is often more in how physical he plays rather than the difference in coverage, do your team’s short corners play physical? If he’s 180+, a big hitter, or has a wide wingspan you might be right when you tell yourself he’s as good as the four-star kid that went to Rival U.
INTJohnGreat overall assessment – great conversation.
Comments frum the peanut gallery:
DB’s: Staff will , I think, put a couple wr’s at DB.
Defense continues to be the great strength & health of the team.
Ruiz IS the Key to this class as to the future of the offense: The QB of the OL. I think its critical that he start frum the git go and gain the valuble xpereince. All of the OL recruits. Cole & Co. at guard can help him initially with the c calls – a coach on the field for him if you will.
Looking for a ‘grad transfer’ at OL is just delusional unless its someone like the guy from Tx cupl years back who graduated in 3 years and had 2 years elgibility. To bring in a guy for 1 year is just plain stupid – better to let the young guys get the xperience – throw em to the wolves and learn.
Cohesiveness & Corregraphy for the OL must be developed for the long term future of the offense. Harbaugh is done with and I hope; rightfully so with ‘grad transfers’. I wish peeps would get this crap out of their heads. Harbaugh used it as a stop gap positive for season 1 – its over! damn it as it should be. If Harbaugh brings in a grad transfer for the OL it tells me after 3 classes he doesn’t know how to Build a Team! To bring a GT on the OL at this point is a grave red flag signal for Harbaugh’s overall inability to build a Team. frankly an admission of failure!
2017 is the last of the transition years. Michigan must use this season for everyone to get thrown to the wolves – get beat up, take their lumps and move on to the future. 2018 & 2019.
2017 is a year for growing pains & bruises – deal with it; play the younginz’; grow up for ’18, Michigan, or die………
IMHO……….INTJohn
LanknowsDefense is indeed the team’s strength and I think the recruiting class reinforces that. Interesting that’s the case given Harbaugh is an offense-first guy.
BUT – the secondary is a huge question and can undo the whole thing. There’s talent there but it’s a high risk situation right now. No experience, not many bodies. Michigan is wise to look for grad transfers at safety.
I don’t agree about grad transfers at OT. Most development happens at practice. Getting your ass handed to you doesn’t necessarily make you better — see Kalis and Braden the last 3 years.
The OL situation is what it is. You can look back and moan or look ahead and fix it. The failure happened – admitting it (or not) is beside the point.
The 2018 team might not be better than 2017.