Lanknows.
LanknowsThis will change but for now:
LT: Bushel Beatty
Other options: Cole, Bredeson, Newsome, one of the freshman OT
Everyone saw JBB struggle, but at least he gained a bit of experience. Just entering his junior year, reasonable improvement puts him at passable level. Think of a Perry Dorrestein type of career arc where by senior year he is a capable starters.
Everybody is hoping a grad transfer will fall out of the sky to save the day but it’s not likely there is one who will be any better than JBB.
LG: Bredeson
Other options: Kugler, Ruiz, Runyan
Rumor has it the staff is very disinclined to mess with the interior OL. Bredeson was a freshman last year but lost the LT competition and the coaches felt better about moving Braden to OT (where he struggled) than letting Bredeson play there. Expect Bredeson to stick.
OC: Cole
Other options: Kugler, Ruiz, Runyan
It would probably take excellence from Ruiz or a disaster at LT to move Cole away from the most important position on the OL. Last year’s transition pains would be wasted if he did.
RG: Onwenu
Other options: Let’s not talk about this. Michigan REALLY needs Onwenu to emerge as a capable starter. Spanellis and whoever loses the LG battle are around if things go haywire.
RT: Ulizio
Other options: A grad transfer? Filiaga and the other freshman, Bredeson
This is probably the diciest spot. Cross your fingers territory. An Onwenu/Filiago right-side is enticingly massive, but the realistic best case scenario is Ulizio stepping up.
Expect a lot of heavy personnel sets next year to cover up the inexperience at OT. Luckily we are loaded at TE and have 2 5-th year senior H-back/FBs. We may finally look like Stanford…except for the OL held together with duct tape.
LanknowsMost likely to push the above starters out.
1. Ruiz. Starting at OC probably isn’t in the cards until 2018, but if he’s as ready as everyone hopes he could push Bredeson to tackle.
2. Filiaga. Is very large. Probably starts if Ulizio isn’t ready.
3. Kugler. Played last year so there’s that. Probably only if someone above is hurt or falters (which is likely given all the uncertainty)
4. LTT (or another grad transfer). It could happen!
5. Steuber. Freshman OL are a crapshoot. Maybe put Hall (early enrollee) here instead.
ThunderYeah, I’m really hoping for a grad transfer this year. Even if it’s Logan Tuley-Tillman. The options currently on the team are questionable.
LanknowsLike you’ve argued in the past, the grad transfer market is generally not overflowing with high caliber talent. LTT may or may not be an upgrade and brings baggage. But Michigan doesn’t have a single proven option so… I think they’d be foolish to not add someone to come in and compete.
I wonder if this has something to do with the lack of late recruiting offers.
WindyCityBlueYes, we really need Onwenu to fill one of the guard spots. And there is no reason why he shouldn’t. Harbaugh absolutely raved about how special this kid is, and he has the best developer of offensive lines in the country coaching him (I read that on MGoBlog), so why should we have to wait the usual 3-4 years for him to be a journeyman starter?
LanknowsWaiting isn’t an appealing option, but most people aren’t ready to start and play well as sophomores. Guys that can are typically NFL bound. Is Onwenu?
WindyCityBluePerhaps not, but as noted, Onwenu is not most people. Jim Harbaugh thinks he’s an exceptional player, and that’s AFTER having him on the roster and seeing him in practice and games. So why should it take as long for him to develop into a quality starter as it would for any run-of-the-mill guy?
LanknowsBecause what Harbaugh says about players and how they play on the field aren’t always perfectly aligned.
It could take a long time because – it often takes a long time.
Onwenu had an encouraging freshman year, but Kalis, Braden, and Bredeson were not exactly stand outs and he wasn’t as good. Onwenu needs to take a huge step forward. He could, but he might not.
WindyCityBlueWait…aren’t we were supposed to “trust the coaches”? At least, that’s what everyone says when we’re talking about spending a scholarship on a recruit no other decent program wants and who’s never even been on campus. Why does the same thinking not apply to Onwenu, who’s been on the team and coached up for a year?
And I’m not talking about Onwenu as a freshman. I’m talking about him after two years of coaching and conditioning. And if it’s going to take 4 years to turn high quality recruits into high quality players, it’s pretty hard to consider this an elite coaching staff. The standards of the Michigan fan base for player development have gotten very low, frankly. Teams like Alabama and OSU have lots of guys going full bore by their second year. That’s why they get to the playoff and win championships, even when they have heavy attrition. If this coaching staff can’t do the same in a season like 2017, this is going to remain a second tier program at best.
LanknowsWe should trust what the coaches say – their actions, not take everything they say at face value. Like in most situations actions are more meaningful.
What this means is that Onwenu is probably ahead of his peers (returning ’17 OL), Bredeson expected. That doesn’t mean he’s a lock to be a high quality Big Ten starter as a sophomore.
I’m excited about Onwenu. I think he’s a legit talent. I think he’s going to step up, especially with Frey and Drevno both on staff. Harbaugh’s statements are interesting, as our David Dawson’s (who also praised Onwenu extensively). Cause for optimism, but not erasers of doubt.
The OL coaches might not be elite. Drevno’s has not looked anywhere near it so far. I would argue Frey’s track record is pretty good but there’s probably a dozen OL coaches at least who can make a stronger claim.
Onwenu is clearly worth a scholarship offer. Recruiting and playing time at Michigan are separate conversations. I suspect your reliance, overly so IMO, on recruiting rankings is causing you to conflate different issues here. Like Ty Isaac, Shane Morris, and the rest – starz don’t matter once you’re enrolled. Alabama and OSU have dozens of kids rated higher than Onwenu flaming out or taking years to develop. This is a normal thing, even for highly ranked kids. It’s not very hard to look back on a top 100 list from 3 or 4 years ago and see this.
LanknowsWe have no choice but to hope Onwenu is ready. I’m just trying to be realistic and acknowledge there’s a pretty decent probability he isn’t.
That two true sophomores (one of whom has only played spot duty) are being counted on to start illustrates how much of a debacle the OL situation is. We can blame Hoke for it I suppose but we’re entering year 3 and plenty of Drevno’s guys are around. If Drevno is as good as he was hyped to be than guys like Bredeson, Onwenu, and Ulizio will step up. If not… I think he should be encouraged to seek other opportunities.
INTJohnI don’t think who ever starts/plays etc in 2017 is really going to have that much of an impact on the overall season results. The Ol is Who it is and What it is.
All of us pretty much agree that Michigan’s 2017 record is going to be somewhere in the 8-4 to 10-2 , inclusive range with a 2nd or 3rd place East Division finish…… no matter who starts or who relieves so……
I’m of the opinion to use 2017 to simply throw them to the dogs; let them learn as a Line and as individuals get valuable experience take the lumps and/or losses and then have something of substance to build with for 2018.
IMHO………..INTJohn
LanknowsI would absolutely not rule them out form winning the east – the schedule is far more conducive for it than it was last year. A big ten title is not off the table. This is Michigan!
The development of guys like Onwenu and Ulizio, and the potential addition of a grad transfer, will have a huge impact on the season.
The only real questions about the 2017 team is the OL and secondary. I wouldn’t give up on either unit yet – but the pressure is on the coaches.
Anyway, the difference between 8 and 10 wins is huge for Michigan.
If you are arguing that Michigan will be far better off in 2018 than 2017, I think that’s highly debatable.
ragingbullyep the difference bw 8 and 10 wins is huge.
and i wouldnt argue that m will be far better off in 2018 vs 2017 (in terms of final record, i presume) but i would argue that m will likely have a deeper, more experienced and more talented overall squad in 2018 vs this fall 2017.
m could surprise this fall though, theyve got a decent group of experienced players, a great staff and a ton of young talent the staff will forge in the fire – hopefully they remain healthy, embrace their identity and find a dozen young players to roll in and step up – if so, i wouldnt put a big ten title run past them. odds are the 2018 squad will be deeper with more experience and more experienced talent but that doesnt mean theyll automatically run it or exceed 2017 results.
gonna be real interesting to watch, especially with like 60 scholarship players bw 2016-17 classes
LanknowsYou never know what attrition happens between now and then. That’s the problem with the 2-years-from-now analysis. They never consider a handful of busts, injuries and transfers that will inevitably occur. In Summer 2014 nobody thought Kyle Kalis would continue to struggle, Shame Morris would be a 3rd string backup who transfers away, Michigan would rely on freshman on the OL again, and Jabril Peppers would never play a Bowl Game at Michigan. All of these things happened and there will be more of the same in 2018.
Name the top 5 guys you are most excited about in 2018. Now assume 2 of them are not playing. Does 2018 still look so optimistic if you balance worst case and best case?
Our best players next year will likely include Hurst, Mone, Gary, McCray, Speight, and Cole. You might only get 1 or 2 of them back in 2018. And don’t forget that MSU and OSU will be on the road again that year.
Michigan’s schedule next year is very conducive to winning a big ten title next season. Michigan fans should be cautious about looking too far ahead.
INTJohnI’m not arguing anything. All I have to do is watch the games defining the season and the results stand for themselves. My opinion means nothing…….
…….and since you’ve hijacked your own thread and retitled it “Whom will win the Division/B10 title…… Well it was your thread and you can rename your baybee all you want! 🙂 I can dance to many tunes.
I’m not ruling out anything but I do live in the present relative to not simply possibilities but also probabilities. After all, in ’16 no one called PSU to even win the division little lone the B10 Title and most had them as a 4th place finish behind OSU, Mich, ahem cough MSU……..
My money – if I was a betting soul is on PSU to win the Division in ’17. 17 returning starters on a Team that won the Championship should be enough to garner most votes BUT coupled with a complete disrespect for the accomplishment by most everyone should be more than enough motivation by Franklin toward his Team to create a nastiness and edge – if its not already there – to just flat out beat the shit with impunity out of everyone on their schedule. Yep, PSU is going to be one pissed off team all of 17 and no one should look forward to playing them……..
…….but then again maybe MSU will do another about face and pull off a PSU. Michigan likely is 2nd or 3rd in the division for 17. But the Future: I want to see both my Alma Maters playing in the Naty – maybe in 2018? 2019? The Orange Bowl was good but I want to see a re-match for the Naty. FSU will be there Michigan, yes I want it to be. I’ve already got my shirt pikt out:
“WolverNole”
As I See It………….INTJohn
LanknowsThe 2018 OL should be better than the 2017 OL. They’ll lose Cole and Kugler but perhaps gain everyone else while hopefully also adding that OT from Clemson and a healthy return from Newsome.
YOu can make a similar assertion about the secondary. Any other position – who knows what the future holds.
LanknowsThe grad transfer market looks increasingly likely. Signing day is in less than a week and things are VERY quiet on the Michigan front. The coaching staff appears to be trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat by turning things around with a handful of elite prospects who they are unlikely to sign.
What does that mean? Open Scholarships.
Open scholarships are not going to be the final outcome, so grad transfers likely will be. There are several holes on the 2017 roster but OT is the most obvious. Michigan also needs help at several defensive positions, most notably CB.
Grad transfers have traditionally not been great prospects outside of the QB position but there’s no real good reason that has to remain true. Look for Harbaugh and company to be aggressive about letting it be known that there is big flashing vacancy sign at OT. If you’re an All American at a D3 level, if you’re all conference performer in a non-power conference – Michigan offers you an opportunity to prove yourself and maybe improve your draft prospects or position.
Also – like the kid from Clemson – conventional transfers may be an option as well. That one’s tougher because Michigan needs immediate help and it can be tough to offer 2 years of scholarship to get 1 year of playing time down the line. You have to be damn confident that player is an impact guy.
LanknowsFrey’s interview on WTKA was confidence-inducing. It’s clear he’s very excited to be back at Michigan and working with Harbaugh.
The blocking-scheme question came up and Frey was unconcerned. He said something to the effect of “I’ll coach what they tell me to”. The THEY there is presumably Drevno and Harbaugh.
As for delegation of duties it’s clear they have a plan. Doesn’t sound like Frey will have a real role in play-calling, but this staff has been collaborative in the past. He sounded excited to be able to coach with Drevno and exchange ideas. He was very humble “I want to learn from these guys” and excited.
I think having both Drevno and Frey will be very very helpful for next year. Especially with the situation at OT – having Frey focused on just those guys should pay dividends.
LanknowsAssuming the OL class it what is (i.e., no late addition) it will be 5 people. That is not enough!
2017:
We have an immediate need at OT. The recruiting class failed to land Wilson and looks poised to miss on Bechton too. While landing 4 potential tackles likely addresses the long term need, the chances of having 2 of them be ready next year is still pretty low. And Michigan may need 2 of them to play right away.
I can’t say Michigan had to take more than 4 tackles, but they did need to take more than 5 players total. The 2017 roster projects to only have 14 OL on the roster, 13 if you count Newsome as unavailable. This is too few, in almost any circumstance, but particularly true when only 5 players (Cole, Kugler, JBB, Runyan, Ulizio) will be available beyond the last 2 recruiting classes.
At least 2 of them are very unlikely to be starting caliber players (pick 2 guys outside of Cole who are sure-fire starters – you can’t). This puts a heavy heavy burden on youth. This is very very bad and we are left hoping for a hail mary grad transfer to avoid true freshman playing key roles again.
2018:
Michigan has worked very hard to address tackle because the position is in crisis. By 2018, especially with Newsome’s return (hopefully), and the situation getting sorted out one way the other in 2017, the OT position should be adequately addressed. But the staff seem to have overlooked the interior OL.
The projected 2018 roster is woefully lacking in interior line. While we can expect position changes, there are only 4 returning players projected for the 3 interior positions:
Bredeson, Onwenu, Runyan, Ruiz.
Anybody else would be a converted OT. The OC spot in particular is dicey – with all of Michigan’s eggs in the Ruiz basket.
Michigan is either going to have to find some grad transfers, move multiple OTs to OG, or we are once again looking at true freshman or walk-ons on the 2-deep.
It doesn’t have to be this way. As is, this is a flat out failure of recruiting. Either Michigan has intel on transfers (very possible) or they screwed up.
Frey and Drevno have their work cut out for them regardless, but the roster management should give them a reasonable chance. Thusfar, it does not look like that is happening.
It is very disappointing that this staff does not appear to have learned from the (arguably) biggest mistake of the Hoke regime. That they have 2 OL coaches indicates they have. That they will only have 13 OL available on the roster next year indicates they haven’t. Hopefully good news is forthcoming.