De’Veon Smith (image via The Comeback)
Phew! Michigan is a better team than Indiana, but the combination of wind, snow, and the backup quarterback made this one questionable. My game preview failed to take into account the weather, but if I had realized the weather was going to be that nasty, I would have throttled down my 31-17 prediction. Backup quarterback John O’Korn grew up in Pennsylvania, but he played his high school football in Florida, played most of his college football in Houston, practices indoors at Michigan sometimes, and played most of this season in balmy weather. This would have been tough weather for starter Wilton Speight to excel in, so O’Korn did about as well as should have been expected.
Hit the jump for more on the win over Indiana.
John O’Korn looked rusty. As I was watching the game, I thought, “This is how Wilton Speight looked . . . about 10 weeks ago.” O’Korn just didn’t have the same timing with his receivers, but perhaps the biggest difference is the pocket presence and willingness to stand in the pocket and take a hit. Of course, maybe what got Speight hurt is not being afraid enough of pressure, but O’Korn broke the pocket too early and didn’t step into some of his throws. He finished the game 7/16 for 59 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs. I thought he mostly made good decisions on where to throw the ball, but he seemed to be a hare late. The most questionable throw was the seam route to Amara Darboh that “almost got intercepted,” according to the broadcasters, but it was actually in Darboh’s hands before the Indiana safety made a good play by raking Darboh’s arm away. Ultimately, O’Korn did what he needed to do – including an impressive 30-yard scramble to light a fire under the Wolverines – but he never looked comfortable because . . .
The offensive line looks shaky. Earlier in the year, Michigan’s offensive line looked solid and improving, even up until a couple weeks ago. The loss of left tackle Grant Newsome in the Wisconsin game was a blow, and I think the right move was to insert Ben Bredeson instead of Juwann Bushell-Beatty. So now it’s Ben Braden at left tackle and Ben Bredeson at left guard, but the whole offensive line struggled against Iowa and Indiana. The line blocked pretty well for Michigan’s run game on Saturday, but defenders were consistently in O’Korn’s face when he dropped back to pass. My thoughts were echoed on Twitter a couple times when I thought a screen had been called since there was such immediate pressure. It was a smart move by Indiana to blitz a lot and put pressure on a new starter in bad weather, but Michigan should have held up better. That being said, the coaching staff put a big emphasis on run blocking and the running backs, and that phase of the game took over on Saturday.
De’Veon Smith showed up to play on Senior Day. I’ve given Smith a fair amount of criticism over the years for his lack of explosiveness, but he played one of the best games of his career on Senior Day. Maybe he realized that the team really needed him to step up in the absence of Wilton Speight, or maybe the random occurrences of the universe made this his time to shine. But Michigan realized they could run power, and they did so down the stretch. Smith ended the game with 23 carries for 158 yards (6.9 yards/carry) and 2 touchdowns. Those 25 carries were tied for the second-most in his career, behind the bowl game against Florida and tied with the 2015 win against Oregon State. Smith broke numerous tackles, made some nice cuts, drove his legs for some tough first downs, and made a nice dive for the pylon to score one of his touchdowns. I would probably rank this game his best, though you could make an argument for a couple others.
I was not a fan of the play calling. I’m sure Wilton Speight has more of the playbook available to him, but I was disappointed that Michigan wasn’t more creative with O’Korn in the lineup. The Wolverines shifted less, used jet sweeps and jet sweep action less, and generally failed to get the ball in the hands of their offensive playmakers (Eddie McDoom, Jehu Chesson, Jabrill Peppers, etc.). The weather may have been a factor, too, because perhaps the coaches were concerned about too many handoffs or snaps going to players who aren’t quite as adept at doing those things. They thought they could win the game by going vanilla, and they were right – but it was still the first game all season where Michigan was losing when going into halftime.
The defensive line started slow but eventually mauled Indiana’s offensive line. Early in the game, Indiana running back Devine Redding was finding some creases, and a couple wrinkles from head coach Kevin Wilson’s offense gained Indiana some yards (“Wildcat” plays with various players, some interesting shifts, etc.). In the second quarter, Matt Godin jumped offside and then Taco Charlton took a stupid unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Apparently, an angry Taco is a an awesome Taco. He finished the game with 4 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 pass breakup. Chris Wormley (3 tackles), Maurice Hurst, Jr. (3 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack), and Ryan Glasgow (7 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble) also were outstanding.
Weekly defensive back rant . . . with a caveat. Channing Stribling struggled. There’s no way around it. Indiana decided to pick on him early, and it was the right choice. They made some nice completions, and he inexplicably lost track of a receiver for an easy completion early in the game. It’s not that he’s physically overmatched – it’s that he makes mental errors. That being said, Michigan got screwed on a couple replays, including another long completion on Stribling. Nick Westbrook made a 37-yard catch where the ball clearly moved and touched the ground as he went to the turf. Even after the replay where he lost control, the referees “confirmed” the completion. They didn’t just let it “stand,” but they confirmed it.
Jourdan Lewis and Dymonte Thomas were excellent. When Indiana tried to target Lewis’s side a few times, he was almost completely unbeatable with the exception of a deep slant late in the fourth quarter. He almost made an interception and ended the game with 3 pass breakups. Meanwhile, Thomas ended the game with 8 tackles and 1 pass breakup, though he did allow one completion. A couple of those tackles were thumping takedowns, including a drive-ending tackle on a Mitchell Paige crossing route.
Kenny Allen was once again very good. Allen had some struggles several weeks ago, but he has been very good lately. Despite the swirling winds and precipitation on Saturday, he averaged 41.2 yards per punt and put 4/6 punts inside the 20-yard line. He also hit field goals from 28 and 33 yards on his only two attempts.
What does it mean for Ohio State? Ohio State is not without its own struggles, as they escaped with a 17-16 win over a Michigan State team that is now 3-8. But in the previous two weeks, they had identical 62-3 wins over Nebraska and Maryland. MSU was even without star defensive lineman Malik McDowell. The weakness of Ohio State is the offensive line, and Michigan has a very good defensive line. I still have a hard time seeing Michigan beat the Buckeyes in Columbus, though, and this is the game I thought Michigan would lose in the pre-season. I think Michigan has the players and coaches to do a pretty good job against Ohio State’s offense, but the Wolverines offense is lacking. The linebackers and defensive backs are better than Indiana’s, and John O’Korn really struggled. I don’t think he can make enough strides to give Michigan a chance next week. That’s where I stand right now. I think the Wolverines have a 30% chance of winning if Wilton Speight plays like a healthy Wilton Speight, but it’s probably a 5% chance with O’Korn under center.
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– I think that O’Korn was on an extremely short leash in that game. The game plan was to win on defense, special teams, and with a running game, and hope that O’Korn doesn’t do anything stupid to lose the game. For the most part O’Korn did a decent job of avoiding back breaking mistakes and managing the game.
– the OL is very mediocre and that is my biggest disappointment in the Harbaugh/Drevno era. It’s been 2 years and the OL is still playing at Hoke/Funk level. Those are all high level recruits with a ton of experience (except for Bredeson) and it is inexcusable to have so many busts up front.
– Smith is the only player who decided to show up and play angry, his last game in the Big House will be his most memorable one.
– Unless something drastic happens (like OSU roster being decimated by flu) next week is a 20-30 point loss, maybe even more than that.
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I don’t think we will beat OSU, but they won’t score enough points to win by 20-30. Have some faith in our defense at least.
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I think they can, they will use tempo to keep the defense off balance, they also have the speed to get the edge, and they can hit us between the tackles with QB runs. If I was Brown, I would load the box with cover zero on every down and absolutely force them to throw. I honestly don’t remember the last time we shut down their ground game, maybe when Miller was a freshman? Anyhow, I see O’Korn starting and I don’t see us scoring on them much, and they will need style points to get a playoff spot. So I see a 39-3 type loss.
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Our defense is very exploitable, and you can be sure that Meyer will find ways to do it. Unless a miracle happens and Speight ends up starting, at something close to full health, I don’t see us scoring more than 14 points, and our defense isn’t good enough to win with that against OSU.
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The offensive line has been frustrating at times, but they’re not at a Hoke/Funk level. We’re at 5.23 yards/carry, which is Michigan’s highest since 2010 (5.58 yards/carry) when Denard Robinson was the starting QB in a spread option offense. The highest Michigan got under Hoke/Funk was 4.76 yards/carry in 2012, and 2013 was a miserable 3.28 yards/carry.
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I believe the line was young and inexperienced in 2013, given Hoke/Funk a bunch of seniors and they would come close to matching what this line is producing. I think the main reason why we’re squeezing out more yards is much better play calling under the current regime, but player development is still lacking.
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That team was younger, but it had upperclassmen Michael Schofield and Taylor Lewan as the bookend tackles. Left guard was a revolving door, but center was Miller/Glasgow and RG was Kalis/Magnuson. The 2016 unit is more experienced, but Bredeson is a true freshman while the youngest guys in 2013 were redshirt freshmen (aside from Bosch, who didn’t play a ton). You’re still talking about almost 2 yards per carry difference, and I don’t think the playcalling makes up for that whole thing.
My point is simply that Drevno/Harbaugh are better coaches than Funk/Hoke, but I don’t think Drevno has any kind of magic wand. He’s a good OL coach, and that’s it.
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I was bothered by two things:
we haven’t been fired up much since the bye, with the 2d half of sparty, 1st half of Indiana, and whole iowa game shaking the team’s confidence
you’re right about the OL. It’s seems one good player on D can disrupt their game, or even an above average front7 can give them fits
I feel better that the team woke up after the JOK run, and hopeful after watching the ohio offense sputter in ELansing
I’ll hope for bad weather, improved OL, and a team with synergy
GO BLUE
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Can’t really use the weather as an excuse. Indiana’s QB managed to do much better than O’Korn under the same conditions, against a much better defense, and with pass catchers who are not as good. O’Korn has simply been poorly coached and poorly prepared to step into a starting situation, if he was needed, despite Harbaugh’s being touted as the best developer of quarterbacks in the country. And apparently Harbaugh had no more confidence in Morris, despite having had two years to coach him up.
As far as OSU, I have it from a completely reliable source (just ask him) that we have a 50-50 chance against them.
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The weather might very well be a reason that the coaching staff backed off on the play calling. But you’re right that Indiana’s starting QB performed better than Michigan’s backup QB.
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“But you’re right that Indiana’s starting QB performed better than Michigan’s backup QB.”
Not so sure subtlety will work on WCB.
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Yes, I know…he was trying to be clever. Which still leaves the question of why a three star nobody that just started at IU this year is outperforming a guy who has been a quality D1 starter and has been coached for two years here by the supposed best developer of quarterbacks in the country. There is no excuse for O’Korn to have been so bad yesterday, and so badly prepared. It’s not even like Speight got hurt during the game and O’Korn had to rush in at a moment’s notice. He and the coaches KNEW he was going to start well ahead of time. And it’s not as if he was playing against a tough opponent or in a hostile atmosphere, or with all of his best pass catchers out with injuries, or with no running game for the defense to worry about. He had everything going for him, and he still looked terrible.
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I think it’s odd that you’re harping on this Lagow vs. O’Korn thing. You say Lagow is a 3-star nobody, but he was the #1 JUCO QB to ESPN in 2016. He threw 21 TDs last year. Yes, it was at a junior college, but it was against live, college competition. O’Korn was “a 3-star nobody” coming out of high school, and he went to Houston, which isn’t exactly the destination for top-level talent. And he hasn’t been playing against live competition much this year. Lagow had 351 passing attempts this year going into Saturday, and O’Korn had 18.
As for a “hostile atmosphere,” I don’t know whether I’d rather play in a “hostile atmosphere” or in that weather. Serious question: Would you rather QB a team in Iowa at night, or would you rather play QB at home with 30-40 mph winds and snow coming down? You’re intimating that weather shouldn’t be an excuse, but you’re also suggesting that a hostile environment might… I don’t really buy that. Saying he “had everything going for him” is misleading and/or flat-out incorrect. He was a backup going against the country’s #48 defense (so “a high average” defense) in cold, windy, snowy weather. If that means everything’s going for him, then I would hate to see what it’s like when things are going against him…
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#1 JUCO QB is like the NIT champion. He was still rated as a 3 star when he signed with IU, and no high level program was paying any attention to him.
And I’ll repeat…both QBs played in exactly the same weather. Lagow ALSO had to travel and play in front of a hostile crowd, against a far tougher defense than O’Korn faced, throwing to receivers that aren’t as good as O’Korn’s. THAT’s what it looks like to have everything against you. And Lagow STILL did much better.
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So, the coaching staff backed off on the play calling, even though Indiana wasn’t, and even though they were getting beat the whole first half?
Okey-doke, then.
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Yes…that’s what happens when you put in a backup QB. I don’t know what world you live in where the backup QB can come in and have the same command of the offense/playbook as the starter. That’s generally not how football works. I’ve coached QBs (not in college), and the backup isn’t as ready as the starter. It rarely happens in college, and it rarely happens in the NFL. There’s a drop-off from the starter to the backup. Welcome to football.
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… except if you’re the Dallas Cowboys with Dak Prescott.
How ‘about those Cowboys!!!!
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Indiana had to take chances to win. Michigan didn’t.
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I read this book to my 18 month old where they refer to the protagonist as a “kaleidoscope of mope”. Eventually he figures out that’s no way to go through life.
I highly recommend “The Pout-Pout Fish” to some of the people commenting on here.
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Well played.
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Wow, a bit surprised you are only giving them a 5% chance with win with O’Korn. A team loaded with Seniors and NFL talent and coached by Harbaugh? I’m biased but I would give them about 35% with O’Korn, maybe close to 50% with Speight.
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Michigan does not play well on the road, the offense is one dimensional with O’Korn at the helm, and OSU has the horses to shred Michigan defense. Those factors add up to a blowout loss.
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That’s a lot of conclusions about O’Korn from one game in conditions that JT Barrett struggled badly in as well.
Michigan may lose but they are not going to get shredded for damn sure.
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Lewis was great. Again. Thomas made some very solid hits.
I thought that Charlton did a very good job of holding the edge. He’ll really need to do that in Columbus. I’d like to think that he’s improved significantly — but didn’t IU need to replace some very good OTs this year? Shrug.
I think this year’s game will be a lot like Henne’s senior year game against OSU. Henne’s shoulder was hurt; Hart kept running for no gain; our Defense wears down. Hope I’m wrong.
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I’m not so sure the bucknuts blow us out even with O’Korn starting.
Plenty of teams with our talent level or less actually have given OSU all they can handle and then some.
I don’t like our chances for sure but stranger things have happened especially this year in college football.
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In fairness to O’Korn, Speight didn’t make his first start of the season facing a cold wind gusting at 20/25 mph.
We did some excellent things in this football game. Just for starters, Indiana sold out to stop the run on a bad weather day against our backup QB just knowing that we couldn’t make them pay by going over the top. We ran it right down their throat in the second half. The fourth quarter drive that took 8/9 minutes off the clock was the kind of drive we’ve been wanting to see around here for a long time.
Indiana’s run defense made me think of that goofy thing Perles came up with at the Steelers and MSU, especially when he had Percy Snow. Except, instead of five guys tying up linemen in order to keep his one beast of Linebacker free to play simple find ball hit ball, Tom Allen uses four down linemen to keep his two real nice Linebackers unblocked. We opened holes running power the entire second half and then Devion Smith made cut/read after cut/read, trucked the occasional safety and basically kicked their red and white asses. This was a gut check game and ours checked out just fine.
I finally got to watch the Iowa game last night. Iowa was in danger of having their first four loss home season since pre Hayden Fry, maybe pre 60’s. The stadium showed up for a nationally televised night game in almost perfect blackout, way better than anything I’ve ever seen Penn State pull off. The place was jacked to the heavens and then another mature football team with guys that have won came out absolutely on fire and wrapped up on every single tackle. They missed on nothing. And they still manage to win only by a lousy missed assignment safety. I like winning them all too, but you have to be football illiterate to not realize that sometimes when shit happens, it’s against your football team.
We’re ready for this football game, Speight or not. Winning in Columbus is never easy, but I guarantee you that they’re way more scared of us than we are of them. Barrett has not been great, their offense is no juggernaut and we’re not playing them with a depleted D Line and a distracted to the point of bonehead DC. We’re gonna hit this week in practice and then we’re gonna go down to Columbus and throw them around some. We have way better than a puncher’s chance to win this game.
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The pass protection was bad and the weather was rough, but I expected far more from O’Korn. The weather kind of came and went, enough to allow Lagow to pass for 190 yards. This was a very disappointing performance and discouraging for next week (assuming Speight is out). He was late (as Thunder said) often and could have reacted better against pressure. But maybe I’m underrating the weather – Indiana was a bit lucky on some excellent catches and OSU/MSU passing games were non-existant in similar conditions.
The run blocking was a pleasant surprise and gives me great hope for OSU. Smith was Smith – creating yards that weren’t there as always, but the holes he got at times yesterday were as big as any he’s seen in a while. I would say that’s the best blocked game he’s ever experienced at Michigan.
The play-calling piece that I worry about was the lack of the Morris package and infrequent use of Peppers. If those guys could take snaps from Speight, why didn’t they take more from O’Korn?
This was a game where any play that wasn’t a run right up the gut was a head-scratcher. Smith averaged around 8 ypc at the half and it took too long to go back to him in the second half IMO. I would have liked to see some jet sweeps as well.
Godin doesn’t get much credit in the Michigan blogosphere but I thought he was real good yesterday and seemed to get a lot more than half the snaps. People don’t want to call him a starter because Hurst is a far better pash rusher and highlight machine – I get that – but this was a game where the coaching staff demonstrated who the “starter” really is.
I thought Stribling had a down game by his standards in coverage, but it’s a gross exaggeration to say he struggled. Indiana tried to target him, like they did Clark last year – at one point throwing at him on 3 consecutive plays. No dice. He made a couple mistakes, one egregious one in coverage, but he was mostly his typically steady self and seemed better prepared in tackling. Also credit to Indiana’s receivers who made a few catches were they were covered about as well as they can be. Lewis got beat too.
To my eye Thomas was excellent all game. I’m surprised he didn’t show up in the PFF top 5, but safety play can be hard to assess in person.
Allen did a fine job but he had the wind at his back most times he kicked. When Michigan punted from the 35 on 4th and short he missed pinning the Hoosiers deep by a bunch of yards. Otherwise he had a solid day.
5% chance with OKorn seems crazy pessimistic to me. I’d put it at 20-25% with OKorn and 35% with Speight.
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Forgot to say – it was very concerning that MIchigan still struggled with Indiana’s tempo at times yesterday. They were getting set as though they had no idea Indiana might quick snap. Better clean that up.
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the morris package? you want to see morris run QB power for 3 yards?
not exactly a blake bell type situation (first example came to mind) where the personnel / scheme forces a D to think or adapt to more favorable look or where the player brings an obvious skill set or benefit to the team to the point where its foolish to not call.
morris doesnt scare any D or DC and if theyre confused or threatened by morris under center (or in the gun) then that D or DC likely gets destroyed by just about anything michigan runs.
i get it earlier in the year, put something on tape, try to utilize as much of the roster as possible, maybe see if theres something there, add another personnel package and scheme to the call sheet, etc. but id be shocked if opponents spend more than 5-10 minutes on morris, just inform your guys to play sound assignment ball with morris as an option QB – a guy who can obviously throw it but has always struggled with timing, tight windows, processing, etc so even if he does throw, trust your pass defenders vs a questionable passer, play the odds and rally to morris as a runner or pitcher.
peppers is a different story as hes obviously extremely dangerous with the ball and can turn a small crease or a step into 6
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How many times has Channing Stribling come in for chiding in these post game recaps during the season?
Yet, according to PFF, Stribling is the 3rd best pass covering CB in the country.*
https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-football-everything-you-need-to-know-following-week-12/
Note also he has significantly more snaps than 1,2, and 4. Jourdan Lewis is the closest thing we’ve had to Woodson since Woodson and Stribling is his Andre Weathers.
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Context matters. Much of the discussion has been about a) how he’s someone I would attack if I were an opposing coach and b) his tackling. Those numbers show that he’s worse than Lewis in coverage (which is one reason I would attack Stribling), and it doesn’t take into account his tackling. I haven’t said he’s terrible or anything of the sort. Weathers got drafted in the 6th round and never did anything in the NFL, so…I shrug my shoulders.
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Fair point about relative weakness to Jordan, but it ignores that those two are 2/11 not 2/2.
Weathers was pretty promising in the NFL before he got hurt and an excellent college player (had to be opposite woodson). You can shrug that off but consistently complaining about guys playing every down in college, on an elite unit, and getting drafted into the NFL is hard to defend.
Meanwhile the LBs are an issue almost every game and seemingly get a free pass. There’s even some buzz that a true freshman and inexperienced backup are going to take their snaps. Not saying those guys are terrible or anything, but if context matters we should consider a bigger picture than “this guy is a hair not as good as Jordan Lewis”.
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As for the linebackers, I’ll believe it when I see it. Linebacker is a tough job to play, and there have been constant complaints about the linebackers for years. I don’t think people generally know bad linebacker play when they see it. Linebackers have to play the run and the pass, and there’s a lot going on inside. Yes, there are some missed tackles, but there are bound to be missed tackles when you’re an inside linebacker and you have “a chance” to make a tackle on the majority of run plays. I sincerely doubt those backups – who haven’t been used much this year – are going to suddenly get their feet wet against OSU. If they were better, they would already at least be getting a shot. It’s not a coincidence that our three linebackers are the top three tacklers on the team. Usually you have a safety or two creeping in there, maybe a CB. Nope. It’s Gedeon, Peppers, McCray, then safety Dymonte Thomas, then safety Delano Hill. The linebackers have 212 combined tackles. Some misses here and there are expected. And unlike when it comes to Stribling, it’s not for a lack of effort (see the long run by UCF, a big chunk of the MSU game, etc., where he was just flat-out not trying to tackle). If McCray busts his butt to race to the sideline and wrap up Jerome Harrison, and Harrison spins out of the tackle for an extra 2 yards, I’m not going to hold it against him as much as a cornerback playing matador as running backs run sweeps.
I’m pointing out weaknesses I see. If I don’t point out weaknesses, then everything is hunky dory and why even write a game column? The offense was pretty good this year, so I guess there wasn’t anything wrong earlier in the year when I talked about Smith, Speight, the OL, etc. except…now the weaknesses are putting us in close games. Nothing is ever perfect. The fact is that Stribling allowed 2 long completions on Saturday, and he was the weak spot in the secondary.
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Fact eh? That’s a very loose definition of a fact. The fact is that Peppers, Lewis, Thomas, and Hill all gave up receptions.
Agree with much of what you’re saying about LBs but I don’t understand the “you’re bound to miss some tackles” argument for LBs but on the rare instances when Stribling gets a pass completed on him he’s called out. That’s a double standard.
Tackling is the primary duty of a LB, covering is the main thing a CB is supposed to do. Nobody is going to be perfect but there have been a helluva lot more missed tackles than blown coverages.
I think you’re reading too much into tackling stats and I think the “not trying” argument is laughable.
I’m not telling you to write out the lyrics to kumbaya instead of criticizing people – I just think you’re targeting the wrong guys and it seems to me like confirmation bias (of your preseason comments).
FWIW, if one was ever to sing kumbaya – THIS defense would be the time.
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With this defense, a 14 point lead is a commanding lead. You can use your 3rd and 4th string backs without worrying.
Isaac has 278 yards rushing when the team leads by 14+ and 139 yards otherwise. That’s what I was trying to say about a: “vast majority”.
Isaac is averaging 4.2 ypc in the 1st half, 4.8 ypc in the 3rd Q, and 7.9 ypc in the the 4th Q. He is feasting on weak competition.
As any RB would, should, and does. Same goes for Higdon – but he has the same rushing yards on fewer carries and seems to be trusted to pass-block more as well.
The one game this year where Isaac was an impactful player was Wisconsin when Higdon did not play. I don’t think that’s a coincidence.
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It’s interesting that your argument keeps changing. It was “vast majority of carries,” but now it’s “vast majority of yards.”
Yes, Isaac was effective against Wisconsin, but that doesn’t really have anything to do with Higdon. Isaac averaged 6.0 yards/carry, while Smith averaged 3.9. Isaac averaged 5.3 yards/carry against MSU, while Smith averaged 3.5.
Again, I’m not saying Isaac needs to start over Smith. You seem to be making the argument that Isaac is bad and can’t be trusted to do anything other than run, which I have refuted multiple times. You seem to think Higdon is a good pass blocker while Isaac is terrible. Not only are you incorrect about multiple conclusions about Isaac relative to the other backs, but you’re missing the point. The point is that Isaac can and should be used more and in a wider variety of ways. Every back has good days (Smith against Indiana, Isaac against Wisconsin), and every back has bad days (Smith against Iowa, Isaac against Indiana). But you can still play to someone’s strengths and “go with the hot hand” at times, and Isaac should have played more against Iowa when the starter was averaging 2.3 yards/carry.
Sometimes it’s just not your day, and at a position that’s somewhat interchangeable like RB, it’s okay to switch it up. It’s not like QB where the whole rhythm of your offense changes (the cadence, the dropback, the throws, the calls in the huddle, etc.). There are going to be times where a certain RB or WR has a little fire going, and you can try to take advantage of it. On the flip side, there are times when your starter is just a little bit off, and it’s okay to try some other approaches. Chris Evans was running better against Iowa than Smith, too. Iowa wasn’t a good matchup for Smith, and I think the coaches could/should have made some adjustments in how they utilized their personnel.
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I was clarifying my point. The majority of yards, the vast majority of carries – We can get into semantics if you want but the point is the same one I’ve been making since Isaac transferred to Michigan. Actually, it predates that to our arguments about YPC in the Smith/Shaw days.
— YPC is context-dependent.
Now we have situational stats that demonstrate this quite clearly. We have opportunity rate stats that show us which guys get better blocking. Etc. But you want to keep comparing Isaac’s YPC to Smith’s. SMDH.
I’m not arguing Isaac is “bad”. I think he’s totally OK as a ball-carrier! I’m arguing he’s the 4th best back we have and that people who argue he should get more carries are pretty ridiculous. I do think he is a liability as a pass-blocker which limits his ability to get more opportunities because right now everytime he’s in the game there’s a pretty excellent chance he’s getting the ball. I’m not arguing Higdon is good in pass protection – I’m arguing he’s better than Isaac, who stinks at it.
The in-game results you’re attributing to guys being off or on is easily explained by statistical variance. If you get 1 carry for 7 yards it doesn’t make it more or less likely that on the next play you’ll get tackled for -1 or break a big one. What you’re talking about is the hot-hand theory which has been disproven in many contexts.
The Iowa context is a great example. PFF gave Smith a better grade than Evans. Brian Cook blamed Smith’s production on the OL and Iowa’s D. So was Evans really running better? Or did the OL just block better for him on those plays that day?
Smith was the best back for Iowa because he’s the best back. Period. Debating this at this juncture is ridiculous. Iowa is a good defense who played a great game while our OL struggled. Plugging in Evans or Isaac wasn’t going to change that.
Arguing this kind of stuff is like saying the Lions should have run the ball with Charlie Batch and Corey Schlesinger in this game: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199810040chi.htm
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I think we can have a logical debate about the right mix of carries between our top 2 backs (Evans and Smith). They have different skillsets and applying those is strategically interesting and a potentially differentiating decision.
I think we can have a logical debate about if Higdon or Isaac is more effective (because it’s reasonably close statistically and the coaches have used both about equally over the course of the season).
But calling for Isaac to get more carries because he had 1 for 7 yards is nuts as is anyone who still thinks he should be taking carries away from Smith (or, at this point, Evans).
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I think it is pretty absurd not to acknowledge that people have good days and bad days. The reasons might vary (maybe you tweaked an ankle, maybe you had the flu a couple days ago, maybe your girlfriend broke up with you, etc.), but good players are capable of having bad days. Steph Curry can have a bad day shooting. Mike Hart had a game where he fumbled twice. Mike Tyson wasn’t a worse boxer than Buster Douglas. But Tyson didn’t have a backup boxer to go in for him when he was having a bad night.
Iowa was not a good day for Smith. You can blame it on the OL, the crowd, something unknown (see the above paragraph), but it just wasn’t his day. That’s okay.
Believe me when I say that I know the difference between bad blocking and having a bad day. I’ve coached and called plays and made substitutions in games where certain guys are struggling. Sure, you go with your best guys in most situations, because that’s why they’re the best. But I also know that, for example, when you’re running inside and the tailback isn’t hitting the right holes, then you can put in your backup RB or run some jet sweeps or reverses. I understand statistical variance, but that doesn’t necessarily explain a guy averaging 2.3 yards and a guy averaging 6.5. Sometimes the guy averaging 6.5 yards/carry is just better and/or having a better day.
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I didn’t say people couldn’t have good/bad days but if you’re arguing you can figure that out based on one carry…
People are generally going to shut things out and focus on the task at hand. Deveon Smith on the best day of his life wasn’t going to run for 7ypc against Iowa. Neither was Ty Isaac’s. Maybe it was Kyle Kalis’ bad day that did it. It’s a team game and running effectively takes 10 or 11 guys doing their job, not 1. You’re not going to have wildly diverging outcomes because 1 guy is better than he would be on another day. Steph Curry might throw up and airball and Tyrone Wheatly might slip or fumble – but has nothing to do with DeVeon Smith getting swarmed by 4 defenders and 2 stumbling OLmen in the backfield.
We have a long enough track record with Isaac playing in meaningful situations to know he isn’t better than Smith. To argue he was last week and that for some unknown reason Smith was to blame for the poor rushing performance is ridiculous, particularly in light of the Indiana game. If you want to pin a boatload of blame on Speight that’s somewhat understandable but Smith? With what we’ve seen from this run game the last 4 years the idea that the best back we’ve had having a “bad day” is to blame is nutso.
Sometimes – hell, every week you see it with some team – a better RB has a lower YPC than an inferior player. It doesn’t have to have anything to do with that individual being under the weather or whatever.
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You don’t need to figure out whether Isaac is having a good day based on one carry. You only have to figure out that Smith is having a bad day with 2.3 yards/carry. Meanwhile, Evans had several opportunities to show that he was running well.
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Agree to disagree.
Sometimes a play works and other times it doesn’t. Doesn’t mean the guy is having a bad day.
To me this is like arguing Jake Butt should be pulled from a game because he’s well covered a few times, or the QB overthrows him, etc.
He’s still better than Ian Bunting, even on a day when Butt is limited to 1 catch for 6 yards while Bunting gets 2 for 44.
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Being covered is different unless you’re running really lazy routes. If you drop three passes or fumble twice, then you should be benched, or the offense should go in a different direction. Last year Ty Isaac fumbled twice in 6 carries against Maryland. I don’t think he has fumbled at any other point, but he got yanked. He was having a bad day. Maybe Bunting or Asiasi or someone else would be better off getting the ball if Butt’s having a bad day. I think Peyton Manning got benched one time when he threw something like 6 interceptions. It happens.
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Fumbling is on 1 guy. Interceptions are (usually) on 1 guy. A failed running play can be on any of 11 guys.
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