CFP Semifinal Preview: Michigan Pass Offense vs. TCU Pass Defense
If you look at yesterday’s post, I discussed Michigan’s run game (LINK).
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes recently stated that stopping Michigan’s run game “stops their offense.” So apparently they don’t have a lot of respect for Michigan’s passing game and quarterback J.J. McCarthy. That makes some sense – and it’s probably the right approach – but the passing game is not without some playmakers. Overall, Michigan is #92 in passing offense (210.5 yards/game), but they’re #24 in passing efficiency and #29 in yards per attempt. For much of the year, McCarthy was at or near the top of the country in completion percentage for a late-season stretch dropped him down to his current spot at #29 at 65.3%. He has thrown 20 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions on 8.3 yards per attempt. Wide receiver Ronnie Bell leads the team with 56 catches for 754 yards, adding in 3 touchdowns. Cornelius Johnson has about half as many catches (30) but twice as many touchdowns (6). Tight end Luke Schoonmaker (34 catches, 386 yards, 3 TD) should be able to play after suffering a shoulder injury, but freshman Colston Loveland has 7 catches for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns in the past few games. The offensive line has been good in pass protection – and McCarthy has the athleticism to escape – so the Wolverines are tied for #11 nationally with just 1 sack allowed per game.
TCU is #83 in pass defense (235.6 yards allowed/game) but #23 in passing efficiency defense. They rank at #45 in yards allowed per attempt (6.8). Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor have all had big days throwing the ball against the Horned Frogs, but Texas – with its star quarterback and receivers – really struggled. Teams have completed just 53.6% of their passes against them with a total of 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Redshirt sophomore free safety Bud Clark (6’2″, 190) leads the team with 4 interceptions, followed by redshirt junior cornerback Josh Newton (6’0″, 195) and senior cornerback Trevius Hodges-Tomlinson (5’9″, 180) with 3 each. Hodges-Tomlinson was 1st Team All-Big 12 and Newton was 2nd Team, while Clark was Honorable Mention. TCU is #17 in turnover margin (+0.69 per game), so that’s how they hold teams down. They’re just #76 in sacks, led by senior linebacker Dee Winters (6’1″, 230) with 7.5 and senior defensive end Dylan Horton (6’4″, 275) with 6.0. Horton is the best natural pass rusher on the team, in my opinion, while Winters is the best blitzer.
Advantage: Push. TCU has a good secondary, but they are propped up by often being able to drop eight guys into coverage while rushing just the three linemen. If they commit more players to the line of scrimmage in order to stop the run, Michigan will have room to operate on the back end against players who might be put in unfamiliar coverages.
