A win is a win. I always try to keep things in perspective. Herm Edwards famously said “You play to win the game,” and Michigan won the game. The Wolverines are 3-1 and their primary goals are still within play: win the Big Ten, beat your rivals, make the College Football Playoff, and win a national championship. Sometimes you win ugly, and sometimes you win pretty. It might help put things in perspective that star tight end Colston Loveland missed the entire game with an arm injury and Will Johnson was absent at the end of the game. This just happened to be an ugly victory, but oh well.
NOTE:Unfortunately, I ran out of time to finish the preview this week due to an unexpectedly busy Thursday night and Friday. So I’m posting what I had already written, plus a prediction for the outcome.
RUSH OFFENSE vs. USC RUSH DEFENSE Michigan is #50 in rush offense (176.3 yards/game) after a big week last week against Arkansas State, totaling 301 yards on the ground. The big gainer was RB Kalel Mullings, who had 15 carries for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Wolverines are #42 in yards per carry (5.24), and Mullings is gaining 7.5 yards every time he touches the ball. Meanwhile, Donovan Edwards seemed to run a little harder last week and gained 82 yards on 17 carries with 1 touchdown. The offensive line seemed to gel a little bit against the Red Wolves with RG Giovanni El-Hadi notching the highest PFF run blocking grade. Michigan also introduced its six-lineman package, inserting Andrew Gentry as the extra man. It’s rumored there will be a change at center, where Greg Crippen will likely replace Dominick Giudice. Michigan also announced they would be making a change at QB, where 6’3″, 235 lb. Alex Orji will put to use his skills that have allowed him to run 10 times for 58 yards so far this year. USC is allowing 100 yards/game on the ground, which is good enough for #33 nationally, but they’re #77 in yards allowed per carry (4.17). The leading tacklers are senior LB Eric Gentry (6’6″, 215) with 14 tackles, senior LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (6’0″, 231), and redshirt sophomore S Kamari Ramsey (6’0″, 204) with 14, 13, and 12 stops, respectively. Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State) and Ramsey (UCLA) were both poached this past off-season, with Ramsey having come from defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s prior stop with the Bruins. In fact, six of USC’s defensive starters were playing for other teams last year, including fifth year senior DT Gavin Meyer (6’3″, 290) and fifth year senior DT Nate Clifton (6’4″, 295). Lynn is from the Ravens coaching tree, just like Wink Martindale, Mike Macdonald, and Jesse Minter. Advantage: Michigan
PASS OFFENSE vs. USC PASS DEFENSE We don’t really know what the pass offense will look like this week, because Orji is taking over. Orji has not thrown the ball much, completing just 3/6 passes for 15 yards and 2 touchdowns. Michigan needs to take some shots downfield to keep the defense honest, but it remains to be seen whether Orji can complete any passes that are farther than about three yards downfield. Both touchdowns have come to players leaking out of the backfield in Edwards and TE Hogan Hansen. The pass blocking looked better last week, but it was against Arkansas State, so I’m not sure how much that translates. USC is #72 in pass defense (205.5 yards allowed/game) and #51 in yards allowed per attempt (6.2). They’re #81 in passing efficiency defense. Both of their opponents have completed at least 66% of their passes, and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier completed 30/39 throws for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Both of USC’s interceptions have come from linebackers, and no defensive back has recorded a pass breakup except for third-string CB Marcelles Williams, playing late in a 48-0 blowout win over Utah State. I have questions about how well their secondary can hold up, but I also have questions about whether Michigan can effectively pass the ball. The Trojans are #94 in sacks per game (1.5) with Gentry and Ramsey notching one each.
ROSTER NOTES
USC players recruited by Michigan include: DT Bear Alexander, WR Zachariah Branch, S Zion Branch, LB Raesjon Davis, WR Kyle Ford, S Marquis Gallegos, WR Makai Lemon, DE Anthony Lucas, OL Jonah Monheim, OL Mason Murphy, DT Kobe Pepe, OL Makai Saina,
USC players from the state of Michigan include: LB Desman Stephens (Clarkston)
Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Kalel Mullings. I respect Michigan’s 1-2 punch at running back, and they’ve done a good job (for the most part) of keeping guys fresh over the past several years and having at least two very good running backs. From Charbonnet/Haskins to Haskins/Corum to Corum/Edwards, the Wolverines have garnered a lot of respect. A couple games ago, though, the “Thunder” in this year’s thunder/lightning duo only had 6 carries. That’s not enough. Mullings had 15 carries for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns against Arkansas State, and he deserves to have just as many carries as Donovan Edwards, if not more. Michigan has a big game coming up this weekend, and Mullings should be getting the rock.
Michigan played Arkansas State for the first time last Saturday. Here’s a look at the ten longest plays of the day for the Wolverines. (Okay, there are thirteen since there’s a six-way tie at 13 yards.)
Kalel Mullings 38-yard run (2024)
Davis Warren 33-yard pass to Marlin Klein (2024)
Kalel Mullings 30-yard touchdown run (2024)
Kalel Mullings 30-yard run (2024)
Davis Warren 20-yard pass to Colston Loveland (2024)
Davis Warren 17-yard pass to Fredrick Moore (2024)
Benjamin Hall 14-yard run (2024)
Keshaun Harris 13-yard kickoff return
Semaj Morgan 13-yard run (2024)
Alex Orji 13-yard run (2024)
Davis Warren 13-yard run (2024)
Davis Warren 13-yard pass to Colston Loveland (2024)
Davis Warren 13-yard pass to Fredrick Moore (2024)
