” I think you’re overstating how much luck is involved in playing cornerback”
This statement illustrates a key point in our debate. You view INTs as a primary indicator of “playing cornerback”. My point about luck relates to INT numbers — NOT overall CB play. You see the two as going hand-in-hand while I think a great CB can have low INT numbers in a given year.
I agree with you that over the long run the INT average is meaningful. Larger sample of data smooths out fluctuations in luck, DBs around you, etc. Over their 4-year careers Stribling and Lewis both averaged 1.5 INTs per year. Lewis played significantly more snaps, so has a lower “playmaking” rate, but that’s not really an indictment of his ability as a corner (rather it’s a credit) in my opinion. It IS an indictment of your preseason critiques in 2015 and 2016 that Stribling lacked playmaking while Lewis did not.
I don’t believe that Stribling is a better “playmaker” than Lewis even though he had twice as many INTs in 2016. That’s just the volatility I’m talking about. My whole point is to not make too much out of one year INT numbers (or PBU numbers).
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I do also agree that PBUs are a better indicator than INTs because they are less fluctuation-prone. BUT, a) PBU’s are still a once-a-game on average stat (i.e., volatile) an b) a PBU is not a “playmaker” stat. I still think you have to take the PBU numbers in context and recognize that they mean you’re getting thrown at. If you’re getting thrown at often it means you’re letting guys open. A coverage sack or a ball thrown away doesn’t register as a CB stat, but it means your CB was doing an excellent job — better than when he uses his makeup speed, timing, or strength to bat away a thrown ball at the last second.
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This is what you wrote about Stribling right before he had 6 INTs in 2 years. “the cornerback position is about making plays on the ball, and he doesn’t seem to have that “it” factor for a corner. He seems to be a step slow when it comes to timing, turning to run, finding the ball, etc. … Stribling seems to be on the outside looking in when it comes to major playing time this season. ”
My comments on the topic are the same as they were in that post:
http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2015/07/2015-season-countdown-35-channing.html
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Isn’t it possible that Stribling’s been a “playmaker” all along? Given the fluctuations in year-to-year INT stats and playing time, Stribling had more INTs on fewer attempts than Lewis. Not just in 2016 but over the span of their career.
Isn’t it possible he was very good in coverage all along? That the increase in PBUs from 3 to 13 isn’t anymore indicative of improvement than Jourdan Lewis’ decrease from 20 to 11 is indicative of decline.
Isn’t it possible that his one true weakness was run defense all along? That that is what kept him from keeping Clark or Hollowell strapped to the bench? You were critical of this all along and all available evidence says you were right on point.
I think it’s not only possible but likely for all of the above. So, while I agree that Stribling got better, I don’t agree that your critical takes on his coverage ability and playmaking ability were valid. I think you’re still reading too much into the box score and not enough into the circumstantial evidence like playing time and roster context.
Lewis is a better player than Stribling – not because of ‘playmkaing’ or coverage ability reflected in PBUs – but because he is a more complete player who the coaches have trusted with more playing time and tougher assignments throughout their careers. A better player can have inferior PBU and INT stats, as we saw in 2016. A better player can have a lower INT rate (as we saw over the course of Stribling/Lewis’ careers).
