CFP Semifinal Preview: Michigan Rush Offense vs. TCU Rush Defense

Tag: TCU


27Dec 2022
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CFP Semifinal Preview: Michigan Rush Offense vs. TCU Rush Defense

Dylan Horton (image via Draft Network)

Michigan is #5 in rush offense (243 yards/game) and averages 5.64 yards per carry, which is #4 nationally. They have scored 38 touchdowns on the ground, which is tied for #2 in the country. Somewhat amazingly, the running game really hasn’t fallen off in the last two games, even though starting running back Blake Corum has missed the vast majority of that time. Backup Donovan Edwards has 47 carries for 401 yards and 3 touchdowns in those two contests against Ohio State and Purdue. It appears that linebacker Kalel Mullings has claimed the #2 running back spot with 9 carries for 27 yards in the last two games. Former third-stringer C.J. Stokes has barely played in that time, and neither has walk-on Isaiah Gash, who got some key plays against Illinois a few games ago. The offensive line – which won the Joe Moore Award for a second straight year – should be mostly intact, though it’s unclear whether early-year starting right tackle Trente Jones will return to the starting lineup in place of Karsen Barnhart. The line also includes center Olu Oluwatimi, who won the Rimington and Outland trophies for being the best center and interior lineman, respectively.

TCU is #65 in rush defense (149.5 yards allowed/game) and #67 in yards allowed per carry (4.1). They have allowed 21 touchdowns on the ground, which is tied for #84. They run a 3-3-5 defense, which means they mostly use three defensive linemen and three linebackers, at least until they get into short yardage or goal line situations. The front line consists of freshman nose tackle Damonic Williams (6’2″, 320), who was Defensive Rookie of the Year in the Big 12, and two defensive ends that are 275-280 lbs. One of those ends is 6’4″, 275 lb. Dylan Horton, a transfer from New Mexico who made 38 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, and 6 sacks. It’s typically not a great defense to play against a team that uses extra linemen and tight ends to create unbalanced sets and extra gaps, because then linebackers and safeties have to fit in new gaps at different angles. Navy transfer weakside linebacker Johnny Hodges (6’2″, 240) leads the team with 76 stops, including 7.5 behind the line. Strong safety Mark Perry (6’0″, 215) plays off the tight end and is second on the squad with 74 tackles, 6.0 of them for loss. The top seven tacklers are linebackers and safeties, and the first lineman doesn’t appear on the list until #9 (Horton); in other words, the linemen just try to eat up blocks until the safeties and linebackers can get there. Horton looks like a pretty good athlete once he gets off of blocks, but playing as a 4i, he doesn’t get much of a chance to get loose.

Advantage: Michigan. While TCU did play well against Doak Walker Award winner Bijan Robinson from Texas (12 carries, 29 yards), that was not the norm and Michigan has run the ball against everyone in 2022. Michigan is bigger at the point of attack, and the Wolverines run an offense that TCU simply doesn’t see in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs run to the football well, but they are likely to get pushed around once they slam into Michigan’s linemen and tight ends.