2019 NFL Draft Preview: Michigan

2019 NFL Draft Preview: Michigan


April 25, 2019
Devin Bush, Jr. and Devin White are battling to become the first LB off the board (image via Broncos Wire)

This is one of the most exciting NFL Draft seasons for Michigan fans in years, probably even surpassing the 2017 draft when Taco Charlton was taken in the first round, Jourdan Lewis seemed like a borderline first rounder, and several others were drafted. A couple players are expected to go in the first round, and another player is considered to be one of the top few players at his position.

Hit the jump for more.

Devin Bush, Jr. – LB
Bush weighed in at the combine at 5’11”, 234 lbs. and ran a blistering 4.43 forty. He also did 21 reps on the bench press and showed off a 40.5″ vertical. He is a virtual lock to go in the first round, and Louis Riddick has even suggested that Bush is the best player in the whole draft (see below).
Possible landing spots: #10 to Denver, #12 to Green Bay, #20 to Pittsburgh

Rashan Gary – DE/DT
Gary, at 6’4″ and 277 lbs., had one of the best overall combines of any prospect. He ran a 4.58 forty with a 38″ vertical and 26 reps on the bench, plus an impressive 4.29 shuttle time. There has been talk that Gary’s shoulder problems (reportedly a torn labrum) will need surgery, and it’s unclear if he can last through his rookie season before that would need to take place. He was not a productive defensive end in college, and scouts have questioned his pass rushing abilities, but the size and athleticism are very enticing. Due to the shoulder issues, some pundits are expecting him to fall in the draft from what was expected to be a top-10 spot.
Possible landing spots: #8 to Detroit, #11 to Cincinnati, #13 to Miami, #16 to Carolina, #19 to Tennessee

David Long, Jr. – CB
Long is 5’11” and 196 lbs., ran a 4.45 forty, ran a 3.97 shuttle, and showed off a 39.5″ vertical. While his testing numbers are impressive, the most impressive thing about him is that teams in 2018 were unable to take advantage of him. Pro Football Focus, for example, has Long as the best cornerback – or one of the top few – in the whole country by numerous metrics. Quite simply, other teams couldn’t complete anything against him. Despite those statistics, he’s not expected to be a first round pick.
When will he go off the board? Likely 2nd rounder

Chase Winovich – DE/OLB
Winovich measured in at the Combine at 6’3″ and 256 lbs., ran a 4.59 forty, and showed off a 4.11 shuttle. He’s a high-motor player who could get taken advantage of in the NFL because he plays recklessly at times, but he was extremely productive at Michigan and chased plays down all over the field. He’s probably a player who will need to play an outside linebacker position in a 3-4 rather than the 4-3 weakside end spot he played in college, but he doesn’t have much experience dropping into coverage, so that might be a small limitation.
When will he go off the board? Some talk about 2nd round, but I expect 3rd round

Karan Higdon – RB
Higdon is 5’9″ and 206 lbs., and he ran a fairly impressive 4.49 at the Combine. While he has decent speed and acceleration, his ability to break tackles and make people miss is a little bit of a question mark. He has the size of a third down back who can catch the ball out of the backfield, but he didn’t do a ton of that in college. He’s likely to get picked, but probably not until day three.
When will he go off the board? I’m guessing the 6th round

Zach Gentry – TE
Gentry is 6’8″ and 265 lbs., and he ran a disappointing 4.92 at the Combine, along with only doing 12 reps on the bench press. He improved those numbers slightly at Michigan’s pro day (a “4.76” and 14 reps), but overall, those measurements were not very helpful for his draft prospects. He’s a tight end who should probably play flexed out into the slot quite a bit, because he’s not very strong and still could have used another year of college development as a blocker (among other things). If he gets picked, it will probably be toward the tail end of the draft because it’s unclear if he’ll reach his potential.
When will he go off the board? 7th round or undrafted free agent

The rest of these Michigan prospects are unlikely to get drafted, but some will probably become undrafted free agents:

Juwann Bushell-Beatty – OT (UDFA)
Berkley Edwards – RB
Casey Hughes – CB
Tyree Kinnel – S (UDFA)
Lawrence Marshall – DT
Bryan Mone – DT (UDFA)
Grant Perry – WR (UDFA)
Wilton Speight – QB (transferred to UCLA but worked out with Michigan on pro day, UDFA)
Brandon Watson – CB (UDFA)

Where do you want or expect to see these guys go?

81 comments

  1. 17years
    Comments: 134
    Joined: 2/6/2018
    17years
    Apr 25, 2019 at 10:12 AM

    Zach Gentry should have stayed in college. I always wondered if he was completely happy with being asked to switch to TE, the same as I am now wondering if Michael Barrett likes the switching around he is going through.

    Rashan Gary may go in the first round. But I don’t think he should. Perception is not reality in his case.

    And as for Devin Bush Jr, if I was going to draft a LB I’d take Devin White first. He’s more physical, and stronger. He’s just a little better.

    • 17years
      Comments: 134
      Joined: 2/6/2018
      17years
      Apr 25, 2019 at 10:31 AM

      I also should have said, there’s probably teams contemplating taking Chase Winovich who won’t take him, but a few years from now they will see they should have. I have real doubts about what Rashan Gary will be in the NFL. I think there’s a high likelihood the team that picks him will end up regretting it. But I don’t have doubts about Chase Winovich. I think he is one of those players, who years from now, people will ask why he wasn’t taken higher in the draft. It seems he and Jon Gruden would be a perfect match. But that’s just me.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1033
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        WindyCityBlue
        Apr 25, 2019 at 11:31 AM

        Agree about Winovich. I would be surprised if he went in the first round. I don’t think there are teams out there that see him as THE guy they want out of the whole draft. But I think a couple years from now, a lot of teams will regret not taking him higher than he went.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4576
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 25, 2019 at 12:36 PM

        We need some sort of contest here for Team Wino vs Team Rah.

        I like them both of course but think Gary will be an all-pro if not hall-of-famer while Wino should go in late Round 1 or Round 2.

        • 17years
          Comments: 134
          Joined: 2/6/2018
          17years
          Apr 25, 2019 at 1:08 PM

          You are saying Rashan Gary will probably be in the Pro Football Hall Of Fame? Maybe he could develop a swim move first. And will he ever do a spin move, ever?

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4576
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 25, 2019 at 2:21 PM

            Probably? No.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4576
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 25, 2019 at 2:28 PM

            Do you honestly think Mattison wanted him out there making spin moves? Do you expect we’ll see those from the Anchor position in 2019?

            • 17years
              Comments: 134
              Joined: 2/6/2018
              17years
              Apr 25, 2019 at 2:41 PM

              Is it at all possible Rashan Gary is not a better player because he is not capable of it, or not wanting it? Or is it, like so many Michigan fans always put it, some one elses fault?

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4576
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Apr 25, 2019 at 3:23 PM

              Whose ‘fault’ is it that Gary was first team all-conference despite a bum shoulder? Whose ‘fault’ is it that he was awarded the best DL on the team in 2017 ahead of Hurst, Winovich and others.

              These are kind of weird things to ascribe fault to IMO.

              I think the Rashan Gary could have been an all american but instead was just all conference is maybe an interesting conversation to have but there’s better ways to frame it.

              To me it’s ridiculous to imply Gary is not capable of getting better. He’s 21!

              • 17years
                Comments: 134
                Joined: 2/6/2018
                17years
                Apr 25, 2019 at 3:52 PM

                So where he is at is not Greg Mattison or Don Browns fault? It is his fault?

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 4576
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Apr 25, 2019 at 10:09 PM

                It is a credit to both Mattison and Brown that Gary is an excellent football player.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4576
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 25, 2019 at 12:34 PM

      “Perception is not reality in his case.”

      I definitely agree with this.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1033
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        WindyCityBlue
        Apr 25, 2019 at 12:56 PM

        I think the perception on Gary will drop him out of the top 10, but not out of the first round. But you know how these things can go. A couple of teams pass on him in a spot where you’d expect him to be taken, then everyone else starts to think “What do they know that we don’t?”, and before you know it, he’s a hot potato.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4576
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 25, 2019 at 2:23 PM

          While that would be tough for him to deal with in the short run I think it would end up being a good thing for him…and whatever team drafts him too.

      • 17years
        Comments: 134
        Joined: 2/6/2018
        17years
        Apr 25, 2019 at 1:12 PM

        Perception is he should definitely be taken in the 1st round. Reality is he has never played like a 1st round pick.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4576
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 25, 2019 at 2:24 PM

          I’d be curious to see the list of who you think HAS played like a 1st round pick.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4576
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 25, 2019 at 2:24 PM

            Ignoring the fact that being a 1st round pick isn’t based on production.

          • 17years
            Comments: 134
            Joined: 2/6/2018
            17years
            Apr 25, 2019 at 2:46 PM

            I’m not a big fan of the man doing the naration in this video, but here you can see Rashan Gary playing. He shows plays several times so you can see for yourself if Rashan Gary looks like a 1st rounder.
            https://youtu.be/bs_Ngbkdo-w?t=348

            There’s more to watch besides this. Lots on the internet to see.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4576
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 25, 2019 at 2:21 PM

        Perception seems to be that he didn’t produce and will fall out of the top 10.

        It is my opinion that these will be proven to be bad perspectives to have.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 2914
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Apr 25, 2019 at 2:42 PM

      I agree on Zach Gentry. It takes a few years to work out the kinks after you switch positions. He was a QB his first year and worked with the WRs some in his second year. He’s really only been a tight end for two years, and he could have spent another year refining his skills. I don’t disagree with Bush or Gary leaving early, so it’s not about guys leaving early. I just don’t think Gentry’s ready.

      I think Gary should go in the first round, but I don’t know if he’s a top-10 like some people (including Harbaugh) think. To me he’s a guy who should go somewhere from #20 to #32, someone who should be a good player but won’t necessarily be a Von Miller or Ndamukong Suh superstar at his position.

  2. JC
    Comments: 229
    Joined: 8/17/2015
    JC
    Apr 25, 2019 at 10:57 AM

    Spot on.

    The only thing I’ll say in regards to Gary’s productivity is he was often thrown a double team or had a RB waiting in protection to help. I remember the western game he was triple teamed, and still managed to push them back, which is insane.

    I don’t know about UDFA for Perry or Watson. If they are picked up I don’t know if they’ll make it to practice squads.

    I think Gentry will be picked up before UDFA. He’s more athletic than his combine 40 showed.

    Prior to Chase’s combine I thought 4th-5th round would’ve been good for him. His combine numbers could have solidified a 2nd round pick.

    If all of our early entries came back, I would consider us a preseason top 5 team next year.

    • 17years
      Comments: 134
      Joined: 2/6/2018
      17years
      Apr 25, 2019 at 12:17 PM

      Have you done a film study that shows Gary was doubled more than Chase? Because I did read a film study that showed Chase was doubled more than Gary. It was a 3 game sample where both played the whole game.
      I’m not really sure Gary was doubled as much as people say. I think he is not equal to the perception of him.

      • JC
        Comments: 229
        Joined: 8/17/2015
        JC
        Apr 25, 2019 at 1:12 PM

        I have not done that, but I would believe it, Winovich was a monster. My perception is solely from focusing on Gary, and even then it’s on select plays earlier in the season. Later on in the season I chalked up Gary’s performance to “he has a shoulder injury”.

        I would love to see that study done over the entire season, and split out before and after Gary’s shoulder issues.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4576
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 25, 2019 at 12:33 PM

      If all of our early entries came back while other top 5 teams did not?

      • JC
        Comments: 229
        Joined: 8/17/2015
        JC
        Apr 25, 2019 at 1:13 PM

        I didn’t say that.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4576
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 25, 2019 at 2:18 PM

          I know. I’m asking for clarification if that’s what you mean. A lot of teams would be better if they got a bunch of NFL players back.

          • JC
            Comments: 229
            Joined: 8/17/2015
            JC
            Apr 25, 2019 at 5:14 PM

            The only team I think would benefit more from their underclassmen returning is OSU, with two underclassmen 1st round picks in Bosa and Haskins. Bosa is replaceable, they replaced him this year, but he is a talent and any team would love to have him. Losing Haskins is huge. Their QB room is very light, especially after the Tathan transfer.

            Clemson I would slot behind us in terms of impact by an inch. They’re losing a junior DE in Ferrell, and a monster in Lawrence. Ferrell was technically a RS JR, which is technically an early departure, but not really. Losing three first round DL (Wilkins) in the same draft is going to be felt, but I think they’ll be able to reload.

            Losing Gary, Long, and Bush are big losses, with two being at positions of need.

            ‘Bama is an honorable mention, with four-ish players projected in the first round with additional eligibility. But they’re Alabama, they will continue to reload.

            If all early (true junior) draft picks came back, I would still consider us a top 5 team, as getting a stud DL and stud CB would significantly help our team where depth is a little light. Having Bush for another year would be amazing, but the other two positions would benefit more from additional depth.

            • Avatar
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              WindyCityBlue
              Apr 25, 2019 at 8:13 PM

              Losing Barrett was huge too..he was probably their most productive QB ever. They lost him and got even better, with no excuses about needing 2-3 years to adapt to a new offense.

              Count on OSU being at least as good at QB as us this year, if not better. again.

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 4576
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Apr 25, 2019 at 10:12 PM

                I’ll take that bet. Patterson will be better than Fields. Although he may not pass for more yards or TDs he will be more efficient and fewer INTs.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4576
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Apr 25, 2019 at 11:06 PM

              We’re ranked between 4 and 10 everywhere I’ve seen so — OK — not a big leap. Slot OSU, Clemson, and Alabama ahead of us in either scenario.

              I agree that Bush, Gary, and Long are great players. I think we’ll still be very good without them but no question we’d be better with. Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida all lost guys they want back too and can make a case for top 5.

  3. Avatar
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    WindyCityBlue
    Apr 25, 2019 at 11:49 AM

    Are we seeing anti-Big Ten bias with Long? If he played for an SEC school, a guy with his credentials would be slotted for the top half of the first round.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4576
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 25, 2019 at 12:30 PM

      Most every CB Michigan puts out there excels in these PFF measures including Channing Stribling. I was a huge fan of Stribling and thought he would play in the NFL. That hasn’t been the case.

      The old argument was that it was Michigan’s DL elite pass rush that made the job of the secondary easy. But now that, supposedly, Michigan could only got pass rush from it’s one productive DLmen while everyone else was a chump (LOL).

      I love PFF. I think their stats are great and a massive improvement on counting up tackles/sacks/ints. BUT they are still stats that have pretty limited ability to assess individual performance in a team context.

      There are very smart people working on getting better at this but we’re still at least a decade away from having anything close to good defensive stats. This goes for even NBA where there are 5 guys doing similar things on a small field. The NFL is way more complicated.

      My point: I think the PFF stats, while interesting, is getting misused quite a bit right now. We have a lot to learn about how to interpret this stuff and I say that as a big advocate and fan of using statistical analysis in sports.

      • 17years
        Comments: 134
        Joined: 2/6/2018
        17years
        Apr 25, 2019 at 1:16 PM

        Channing Stribling looked lost on many plays, and that as a senior. I would have NEVER drafted him in ANY round.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4576
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 25, 2019 at 2:16 PM

          This is a bizarre assertion. He lacks NFL-caliber speed (4.6 40) and struggled in run defense. Despite these limitations he was all conference and started at Michigan over a lot of good players and PFF gave him an elite grade. He already has played a bit in the NFL and may again.

          • 17years
            Comments: 134
            Joined: 2/6/2018
            17years
            Apr 25, 2019 at 3:22 PM

            He was not drafted. And he is not in the NFL anymore. So apparently my comment was not bizarre.
            Maybe word things a little differently.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4576
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Apr 25, 2019 at 10:51 PM

              Your comment is bizzarre not because you doubt Stribling but the reason for which you doubt him.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4576
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 25, 2019 at 12:31 PM

      No. Come on.

  4. Avatar
    Comments: 209
    Joined: 12/19/2015
    Extrajuice
    Apr 25, 2019 at 12:16 PM

    I love the draft but it’s just another day that the Lions screw up a draft pick in the early rounds. I wish they’d take Devin Bush (if White’s gone) but I don’t want anything to do with Rashan Gary. I’ll predict Winovich goes in 3rd and Higdon goes undrafted.

    Also, am I the only one who misses having the draft on Saturday & Sunday?

    • Avatar
      Comments: 209
      Joined: 12/19/2015
      Extrajuice
      Apr 27, 2019 at 9:51 PM

      Hmm. Not to pat myself on the back but my predictions were spot on.
      (pat, pat)

  5. Lanknows
    Comments: 4576
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 25, 2019 at 2:10 PM

    I know I’m alone here but I’d like to say for the record that I think it’s absurd that Gary is being disrespected and unappreciated this way. I know everyone acknowledges that he’s a talented player and all that but “wasn’t productive” comes off as a massive insult for an elite player who accomplished what he did — just like it did when Denard Robinson was called “not a good quarterback”.

    At least we can have the qualifiers of “for a first round pick” or “for a Heisman contender”.

    I think it’s fine to speculate that somebody isn’t worth a top 10 pick or won’t be in the NFL in a few years. I think it’s fine to be a bigger fan of a different player who isn’t considered as good. But some of this hyperbole comes off as people having an axe to grind and I wonder why that is. Not even a “hope I’m wrong” thrown in for goodwill…

    Dude made all-conference first team twice in 3 years. Most good players are just trying to break in the starting lineup at the same stage. Winovich is a good example. So is Taco Charleton. So is Chris Wormley. So is Mo Hurst. Lack of production? I call that exceptional production. There’s a lot more to production than tallying up career sacks.

    But maybe this is semantics. What’s not semantics is that there is a lot of negative feelings about Gary from Michigan fans. I think what people are most upset about is that the team disappointed them and they want somebody to blame. I think what people are mad about is:
    a) he didn’t play to the expectations that THEY invented for him
    b) he left after 3 years
    c) he got hurt

    The injury reaction is particularly galling when you have the direct counter example of Bosa. Gary risked millions and now fans of the program he did that for want to break him down. We (the fanbase collectively) should be making excuses for him, but instead he’s making them to defend himself – from Michigan fans just as much as rivals or NFL skeptics.

    In hindsight – it seems like fans would have appreciate Gary more if he had done the same thing as Bosa. If he had just been done after the stellar 2017 season rather than playing through the shoulder injury for a only-very-good 2018 season, would he have been received differently? Would the stink of disappointment team finish to close 2018 not be so associated with him? We’ll never know.

    I just think it’s disappointing that some of the most talented players that come through Michigan get the most negativity thrown their way. Expectations are a bitch.

    Again, I know I’m in the minority here. I know I may be a bit sensitive to this because I’ve seen some of the same crap in basketball with THJ, GR3, DJ Wilson, and now Jordan Poole. I wish we as fans could be supportive of the talents that come through Ann Arbor, even if they don’t stay as long as we’d like or produce as well as we think they might here. I think it would help get more special talents to come through if we did.

    Just my feelings.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 2914
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Apr 25, 2019 at 2:50 PM

      I disagree with your first paragraph. It’s not being unappreciated. It’s just the truth. It’s not just people in the Michigan blogosphere. National talking heads and national writers are saying that Gary wasn’t productive, and that’s a question mark.

      From his NFL.com draft profile: “Production as rusher failed to match traits and talent” https://www.nfl.com/prospects/rashan-gary?id=32194741-5276-6759-8729-700e2dfb98cd

      I would also say that you have badmouthed plenty of Michigan players to come through here, including Zach Gentry in this very draft class. Ty Isaac is another one who comes immediately to mind. If you defended every Michigan player with this vigor, I wouldn’t question it. If you hated on every Michigan player, at least we would know you’re a Negative Nancy. But you kind of pick and choose when to be supportive, and then you lecture us about being more supportive.

      We’ve talked about Gary’s production/lack of production before. I went through the statistics (which I forget off the top of my head), but it was something like Gary was the 20th-25th most productive sacker and TFLer at Michigan in the last 25 years or so. That’s not terrible, and nobody said so. But…it’s also not great.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4576
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 25, 2019 at 3:30 PM

        Being “not productive” objectively and being “less productive than he could be given his talent” are two VERY different takes.

        Fair point about Issac or Gentry. It was never my intent to tear those guys down. I like them both and wish them nothing but the best. I just think they got wildly overrated by fans… and I see that maybe that goes for how others feel about Gary in the same turn. So – I take your point.

        That said – when it’s some of the best players that have come through the program and elite prospects, it stinks to see these guys, in particular, get shot down while marginal players are celebrated and concerns expressed about missing them.

        • Thunder
          Comments: 2914
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Apr 25, 2019 at 4:38 PM

          I don’t really know what you’re talking about when you talk about missing marginal players. What marginal players are going to be missed? Along that same vein, I certainly wish Rashan Gary was coming back for his senior year. I don’t see anyone implying that his departure is a good thing for the program. But I think you’ve admitted previously that Chris Wormley did just fine at Anchor, and Wormley was a nondescript draft pick who has done okay in the NFL.

          Will Aidan Hutchinson or Kwity Paye be able to put up similar production in 2019? It’s not outside the realm of possibility.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4576
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 25, 2019 at 10:25 PM

          When I say a marginal player – I am referring to Gentry and Isaac.

          My critiques of Issac came in defense of Deveon Smith – who proved to be the better player over multiple seasons and leagues. Context matters. And my critique of Gentry have been responses to team critiques as well. I hold nothing against Gentry – I like ex-QBs like you do and I am particularly fond of players from New Mexico on top of it. But he wasn’t very good at Michigan – 4 TDs and 800 yards at Michigan in 4 years — but nobody is whining about his lack of production for some reasons.

          The times when I am critical of players are generally in defense of others.

          I praised Wormley while he was here. Defended his play against those who wanted Gary to replace him because of a lack of production and those who claimed Gary would start over him from day 1. He got picked in the 3rd round and is an NFL starter. There is nothing ‘nondescript’ about Wormley — he’s a great player. And he deserved to win the DL of year award that he won while at Michigan, despite a lack of “production”.

          Runyan’s all-conference honor, whether I think it was deserved or not, is a great feather in his cap.

          Hutchinson or Paye are really good players — they are not as good as Rashan Gary. They won’t touch his production even if they get more sacks.

          • Thunder
            Comments: 2914
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Apr 25, 2019 at 11:52 PM

            See, when you label Wormley as a “great” player, we’re on different wavelengths. It’s the same as when you say Gary was productive. The words “great” and “productive” don’t mean the same thing to both of us.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4576
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Apr 26, 2019 at 7:47 PM

              Yes, clearly.

              I don’t know where the lines are being drawn but I think “productive” is a pretty low bar. I would call basically anyone who plays meaningful snaps on a regular basis a productive player. Guys that I would see as more borderline in a hypothetical “productive” debate would be backup types like Mo Ways, Ty Issac, Eddie McDoom.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4576
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 25, 2019 at 3:35 PM

        Sack totals over 4 or 5 years at Michigan vs sack totals over 3 years at Michigan. Sack totals for 255 pound players vs 285 pound players. Sack totals for players whose job is to rush the passer above all else vs sack totals for an every down ‘anchor’. Yes, we’ve gone over it.

        Gary didn’t get named all conference twice or DL of the year because of his sack totals.

        Production is more than sacks.I don’t care if it’s NFL draftnicks or Michigan fans who want to assert otherwise — they are wrong.

        • Thunder
          Comments: 2914
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Apr 25, 2019 at 4:33 PM

          …and TFL numbers. You’re leaving those out. You don’t have to be a 255 lb. edge rusher to make tackles in the backfield.

          We can create caveats for other players, too. Some played on worse overall defenses than Gary. Some players were coming off ACL injuries. Some players were in the process of bulking up their bodies the first two or three years on campus, where Gary didn’t have to.

          FIRST 3 YEARS OF COLLEGE:
          Gary: 7.8 TFLs, 3.3 sacks
          Brandon Graham: 9.8 TFLs, 6.2 sacks
          LaMarr Woodley: 11.7 TFLs, 4 sacks
          Maurice Hurst, Jr.: 2.5 TFLs, 1 sack
          Chris Wormley: 3.2 TFLs, 2.8 sacks
          Josh Williams: 5.3 TFLs, 2.7 sacks
          Mike Martin: 6.3 TFLs, 2.2 sacks

          The TFLs are not impressive, especially considering guys like Williams and Martin were nose tackles. The sack numbers are not impressive, considering a guy like Williams was a nose tackle and a guy like Wormley was a big dude (not a 255-pounder) who redshirted his first year, removing one full year from the equation (and the same goes for Hurst).

          The traditional stats are not impressive. The PFF “advanced stats” are not impressive.

          Let’s give Gary another average year for him (another 7.8 TFLs and 3.3 sacks on his career totals). That puts him up at #13 in TFLs and #11 in sacks. Is it good? Sure. Is it necessarily indicative of a superstar college player or top-10 pick? No. He would be behind guys like Ryan Van Bergen and Tim Jamison in TFLs. Van Bergen was a SDE/DT, and Jamison was not a freak athlete of a weakside end. Van Bergen didn’t catch on at all in the NFL, and Jamison had a bit of a career as a fringe NFL player.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4576
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 25, 2019 at 10:40 PM

            Those numbers seem impressive to me. Those are mostly very good players you’re comparing too – none of whom would be accused of not producing — and he is 3rd out of 7. The two above are classified as linebackers by the NFL.

            If they are worth of top 10 is a TOTALLY different question than if a guy produced or not.

            I agree that Van Bergen is similar in being a SDE who is quasi DT. Why did you not include Van Bergen’s first 3 years? He had a very nice, very productive career at Michigan. Nobody is bitter or critical of Ryan Van Bergen’s very solid career at Michigan. He’s rightfully celebrated and remembered fondly.

            • Thunder
              Comments: 2914
              Joined: 7/13/2015
              Apr 26, 2019 at 12:00 AM

              Brandon Graham is listed as a DE on NFL.com and PhiladelphiaEagles.com. Also, I’m not really sure why it matters what label he has in the NFL (even if your assertion were correct). Gary and Graham were both strongside ends in college.

              I didn’t list all 20-25 people ahead of Gary on the list…

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 4576
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Apr 26, 2019 at 12:46 PM

                He was listed as a linebacker for a when Philadelphia was running a 3-4.

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 2914
                  Joined: 7/13/2015
                  Apr 26, 2019 at 1:43 PM

                  That may be true, but he’s not now. And again, it doesn’t address the fact that Gary and Graham were both strongside ends (taking on tackles and tight ends) in college, which is the only comparison point we have so far.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4576
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Apr 26, 2019 at 2:39 PM

                  I asserted that no one would ever call Rashan Gary a linebacker (unlike the 260 pound dudes he was being compared to) at one point and well, it turns out I was dead wrong about that. We’ll see how it goes but I’d be surprised if that was where Rashan ends up.

                  As for comparisons to Brandon Graham – Graham is a great player you and I (and everyone) likes. One of the best to ever wear the uniform IMO.

                  In 3 years Graham had
                  74 tackles, 30 TFL, and 19 sacks.

                  In 3 years Gary had 119 tackles, 23 TFL and 9.5 sacks.

                  If you want to say Gary wasn’t as productive as one of the best — OK. I’m not going to argue with that.

                  If you want to say he “wasn’t productive” based on that comparison — I call BS.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4576
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Apr 26, 2019 at 2:46 PM

                  Don Brown’s defense has something called a VIPER which some insist on calling a linebacker even though the personnel end up being safeties.

                  Don Brown’s defense has something called an ANCHOR which some call a defensive end, even though the personnel end up being defensive or nose tackles. (at least so far – Gary may change that or he may not)

                  I submit that the Viper role is different than your typical OLB and that the anchor role is different than your typical SDE.

                  Granted, Graham did play in a somewhat similar scheme but I see Wormley and Graham as very different players with different roles, even though they were both ostensibly strongside defensive ends.

        • Thunder
          Comments: 2914
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Apr 25, 2019 at 4:47 PM

          You yourself have spoken out previously about the odd nature of post-season awards like being named all-conference. You have argued that Jon Runyan’s position on the all-conference team is not to be trusted. But then you turn around and say Gary was all-conference twice, so that must be proof that he’s a good player. Which is it?

          I think you and I both know that name recognition or some highlight plays can have a positive effect on someone getting named all-conference, if not All-American. Gary was a 5-star recruit and the #1 player in the country coming out of high school. Rashan Gary was tied for 34th in the Big Ten in tackles for loss, and he was tied for 27th in sacks. I’m guessing those media members and coaches weren’t breaking down how often Rashan Gary was getting double-teamed and looking for reasons to vote him onto those teams. They were like, “Well, Michigan’s got a good defense, and that Gary dude’s pretty good, and hell, everyone recruited this dude out of high school. He must be a stud! Now let me fill out my ballot and get this over with so I can get back to eating my lunch.”

          Let me put it a different way: If the name “Kemp” was stitched across the back of Rashan Gary’s jersey last year, would he have earned those end-of-year honors? My guess is no.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4576
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 25, 2019 at 10:44 PM

            Answered above. Great credit to Runyan that he is all conference and if he does it again he will be rightfully celebrated as a very good player at Michigan. Does it matter that I agree with the honor or not — no. He got it and no one can take it from him. I don’t have to agree for it to be a legitimate honor and evidence of his play. Not like I’m out here saying Runyan failed to produce… that’s your bag.

            Gary got it twice, including as a sophomore when Nick Bosa – the #2 pick in the NFL draft got it.

    • 17years
      Comments: 134
      Joined: 2/6/2018
      17years
      Apr 25, 2019 at 3:31 PM

      You like to bring up PFF Here is what PFF says about Rashan Gary. It will not be as good as you think:
      “Where we might say why hasn’t it shown up……?
      Video at link:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCoJh0b6aag

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4576
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 25, 2019 at 3:37 PM

        PFF doesn’t like Gary as a top 10 pick. A lot of people don’t like Gary as a top 10 pick.

        I think the perception is wrong.

        We’ll see what the teams in the top 10 think about it and then we’ll see what happens in the NFL in the next decade plus…or less…we’ll see.

        • 17years
          Comments: 134
          Joined: 2/6/2018
          17years
          Apr 25, 2019 at 3:54 PM

          PFF thinks he should not even go in the first round, at all.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4576
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 25, 2019 at 10:45 PM

            The NFL disagrees and so do I.

            • 17years
              Comments: 134
              Joined: 2/6/2018
              17years
              Apr 26, 2019 at 8:17 PM

              Time is on my and PFF’s side.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4576
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 26, 2019 at 11:20 AM

          PFF grading seems to be kind of inconsistent on Gary.

          https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1121590114403192834

          • 17years
            Comments: 134
            Joined: 2/6/2018
            17years
            Apr 26, 2019 at 8:25 PM

            There is absolutely nothing inconsistent in what they say about him. You are grasping at straws.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4576
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 26, 2019 at 7:52 PM

          For all their criticism of Gary – apparently PFF gave him a 2018 grade that is very similar to Devin Bush.

          85 vs 82

          They were mostly knocking his pass rush skills.

          Seems like it was an attempt to get some attention to me. And it worked!

          • 17years
            Comments: 134
            Joined: 2/6/2018
            17years
            Apr 26, 2019 at 8:33 PM

            They have Bush as the #2 LB and going in the 1st round:
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wx526qqxcQ8

            They have Gary at #8 DE, not going in the 1st round.
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Za431mcueA0

            They have Chase Winovich rated higher than Rashan Gary. And they though Winovich should have been picked in the 1st round.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4576
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 27, 2019 at 9:58 AM

            I was talking about how they played in college, not the NFL draft grade. These are typically different things.

  6. 17years
    Comments: 134
    Joined: 2/6/2018
    17years
    Apr 25, 2019 at 5:52 PM

    An insider is saying, today, the Raiders might shock everyone and take Dwayne Haskins:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBDQB7ocJzo

  7. Lanknows
    Comments: 4576
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 25, 2019 at 11:41 PM

    Don’t listen to me – I’m just some dummy on the internet. Don Brown though:

    https://twitter.com/UMichFootball/status/1121120523398852608

    • Thunder
      Comments: 2914
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Apr 26, 2019 at 11:33 AM

      Don Brown has a vested interest in his guy getting picked high. He’s not going to say anything negative about Rashan Gary or Devin Bush or anyone who’s trying to go to the next level. If you say negative things about him, it looks bad for you and your program. I don’t trust Don Brown on the topic of Rashan Gary’s effectiveness any more than I trust an Ohio State blogger’s.

      Pro Football Focus, Daniel Jeremiah, Mel Kiper, etc. don’t have any incentive to downgrade Gary unless they actually believe it to be true.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4576
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 26, 2019 at 12:42 PM

        How good do you think Rashan Gary will be in the NFL?

        Will he make be a starter? all-pro? HOF?

        • Thunder
          Comments: 2914
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Apr 26, 2019 at 6:57 PM

          I think he’ll be a starter. Could he be a Pro Bowler? Sure, maybe, if things work out the right way for him. I don’t think he’ll be a Hall of Famer.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4576
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 26, 2019 at 7:41 PM

            That goes for what – 90% of players drafted in the first couple rounds…

            If you had to bet one way or the other is Gary making a pro-bowl or not? Given he “failed to produce” in college, presumably because of inability to rush the passer, is he going to have enough sacks to make the pro bowl…or not?

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4576
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 26, 2019 at 3:17 PM

      In addition to one of the best defensive coordinators in the country, here’s a another voice not to be trusted — an NFL scout from the Packers:

      “He’s had to play multiple positions and move around.”

      He’s a guy because of his size and speed and versatility, you’d hope you can move him around the front,”

      “He commanded a lot of attention at Michigan. Double teams, triple teams. And, really, you could see it in his teammates that got freed up and they were able to get production. It’s not like he wasn’t impacting the game. He was all over the place.”

      • Thunder
        Comments: 2914
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        Apr 26, 2019 at 6:34 PM

        What positions – weakside end and strongside end? Come on. You and I have watched this guy for three years. Sure, he’s lined up in a few different spots (5-tech, 6-tech, 9-tech, etc.), but it’s not like he’s been a jack of all trades. He’s been in a three-point stance his whole career, and it’s not like he was bouncing back and forth between offensive guard, defensive tackle, and defensive end.

        Jaylen Kelly-Powell has had to play multiple positions (S, nickel, CB). Chase Winovich played multiple positions (LB, DE, TE, FB). Jordan Glasgow has played multiple positions (S, Viper, MIKE, WILL). Rashan Gary? He’s been about as static as one can be on the defensive line.

        I think Air Force triple-teamed Rashan Gary on some of their option runs. Of course he’s been double-teamed, just like anyone who ever plays defensive line. These aren’t statements of greatness. These are just descriptions of a guy who played defensive end at a major college program.

        I don’t know where you’re getting the information, but again, at this point there’s no reason for the Packers to release any negative information about Rashan Gary. They’re in spin mode, because they want to make Packers fans happy. They’re not going to come out after making Gary the #12 pick and be like, “Yeah, he’s good at A, B, and C, but he really needs to work on X and Y, and he’s never going to be good at Z.”

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4576
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 26, 2019 at 7:38 PM

          Yeah – I agree Gary has pretty much been playing DE the whole time. He probably means different responsibilities more generally than different positions. See Roanman’s comment below.

    • 17years
      Comments: 134
      Joined: 2/6/2018
      17years
      Apr 26, 2019 at 8:18 PM

      Don Brown has had better things to say about Kwity Paye than he has about Rashan Gary.

  8. Avatar
    Comments: 1166
    Joined: 8/13/2015
    Roanman
    Apr 26, 2019 at 12:42 PM

    12th … pretty darn good.

    Mel Kuiper … as usual. My perennial suspicion is that the hair spray has permeated his scalp and has subsequently cut off a significant supply of blood to his brain, all of which is being diverted to his vocal parts. Although, in fairness to Kuiper, I suspect this of many, many people on television.

    I heard that Green Bay is making noises about Gary to linebacker which seems seriously nuts to me. But, what do I know? If he can cover some, that might be awful to play against.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4576
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 26, 2019 at 12:44 PM

      Saw the same. Seems crazy but OK…at least we’ll see what he can do as a pass-rushing role.

    • 17years
      Comments: 134
      Joined: 2/6/2018
      17years
      Apr 26, 2019 at 8:20 PM

      It’s not noise. IKt’s what they’re going to start him off at. Hair brain idea. They will probably drop the idea pretty quickly.
      Gary belongs at DT.

  9. Avatar
    Comments: 1166
    Joined: 8/13/2015
    Roanman
    Apr 26, 2019 at 3:56 PM

    Having gone through the comments, I’d just like to say that if he becomes the professional football player that Brandon Graham has been, Green Bay will be fortunate indeed. Gary has yet to be anything approaching Brandon Graham as a collegiate athlete. Although I really would like to understand why SDE is called Anchor in our system. My suspicion is that it is a position with some different responsibilities than it was when Graham played it.

    On that issue, I go back to a conversation Brendan Shanahan had after having been a Wing for some years. He was asked why he wasn’t quite the offensive threat that he had been prior to coming to the Wings. His response was, “I have responsibilities now.’ … Left Wing Lock and all that stuff.

    My opinion with absolutely no evidence is that our Anchor has responsibilities that aren’t readily apparent on TV. But I can’t really see it either way.

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