RUSH OFFENSE vs. CINCINNATI RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan put up a respectable 215 yards in the season opener, tying them with none other than Michigan State for #49 in the country. The Wolverines are tied for #64 in rushing yards per carry after going against a solid run defense in Florida. Presumed third-stringer Ty Isaac broke out with 11 carries for 114 yards in the season opener, largely as a third down back. Meanwhile, starter Chris Evans had 22 carries for a mediocre 78 yards. Those carry totals are too high for Evans to sustain, and he should get a bit of a break against Cincinnati. Up front Michigan blocked fairly well in the run game, but the left side (LT Mason Cole, LG Ben Bredeson, C Patrick Kugler) is more reliable than the right. Cincinnati gave up 224 yards on the ground (#104) on 3.73 yards/carry (#75) against Austin Peay. Junior free safety Malik Clements leads the team in tackles with 18, and sophomore WILL Perry Young is right behind with 17. Young also leads the team with 3 tackles for loss. The defensive line goes 258, 297, 260, and 245, so they will be severely outsized. Last year Cincinnati was #75 in rushing yards allowed per game, and that probably won’t change much for the better this year.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more on the game.
PASS OFFENSE vs. CINCINNATI PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #73 in passing yardage with the 218 yards gained last week, all but 37 of which came from Wilton Speight. The Wolverines are #97 in passer efficiency rating. Starting quarterback Wilton Speight completed 11/25 passes for 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, both of which were returned for touchdowns. The breakout target was freshman Tarik Black, who made 2 catches for 83 yards and 1 touchdown. Junior slot receiver Grant Perry caught all 4 of his targets for 46 yards. Michigan’s quarterbacks were sacked 5 times by Florida, placing them tied for #116 after one week. The weak spot is on the right side of the line, particularly first-year starter Nolan Ulizio, a redshirt sophomore. Cincinnati is tied for #72 after making 1 sack last week, and that came from SAM linebacker Tyrell Gilbert. They were #74 against the pass in 2016, but they’re #12 this season on the strength of playing Austin Peay in game one. Starting corners Mike Tyson (5 interceptions, graduated) and Alex Thomas (4 interceptions, kicked off the team for alleged robbery) are gone, leaving two 6’0″ corners to start on the outside in Grant Coleman and Linden Stephens. The most dangerous pass defender is Gilbert, who had 3 picks last season. Cincinnati likes to play quarters coverage, which Michigan should be able to take advantage of they can hold up in pass protection.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. CINCINNATI RUSH OFFENSE
Last week Michigan held Florida to 11 yards rushing, good enough for the #4 rushing defense in the country. The Gators were without their starting running back, but the biggest problem was Michigan crushing the offensive line. Sophomore linebacker Devin Bush, Jr. led the team with 7 tackles and 3 tackles for loss, and he’s followed by safety Tyree Kinnel and defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr. Michigan has a fast unit that flies to the football, and they’re solid tacklers when they arrive. Michigan was #15 in rushing defense in 2016, and they don’t look to have fallen off much since then. The Cincinnati offensive line is a senior-laden unit, but one spot to watch is 6’4″, 293 lb. LG Keith Minor, who switched from DT to OG last season and played just two games on the offensive line. Another sore spot is 6’7″, 300 lb. RT Kendall Calhoun, who struggles in pass protection and getting to the second level. The Bearcats got 97 yards last week (#95 in the country) on 3.34 yards/carry (tied for #86). Senior running back Mike Boone (5’10”, 205 lbs.) is the lone back in the backfield, and he put up a respectable 100 yards and 5.26 yards/carry last week, but that was against an FCS school.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. CINCINNATI PASS OFFENSE
Michigan allowed 181 yards last week, good enough for #49 in the country. The 112.33 passer efficiency rating allowed is #57 nationally. Michigan is a little weak in coverage due to a young secondary, but they made 6 sacks against Florida last week, which ties them for #4 in the country. Defensive coordinator Don Brown loves to blitz, and that won’t stop against the Bearcats. The questionable offensive line and quarterback Hayden Moore are going to be under duress all game. One  returning receiver is 6’0″, 205 lb. junior Kahlil Lewis, who made 48 catches for 605 yards and 5 touchdowns last season, and 6’5″, 185 lb. sophomore Thomas Geddis is also a frequent target. The slot guy is 6’0″, 177 lb. Devin Gray, who made 58 catches for 860 yards and 5 touchdowns. Senior Tyler Cogswell (6’5″, 254 lbs.) mans the tight end spot, and he has 10 career catches for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns. Senior quarterback Hayden Moore has 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions in his career. Cincinnati is overmatched in this phase of the game, but not so much because of its QB and receivers – they’re overmatched because the offensive linemen are going to be helpless against Michigan’s schemes and talent. I expect to see backup QB Ross Trail by the end of the day.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Players recruited by Michigan include: OT Kyle Trout (who transferred from Ohio State), LB Joel Dublanko (took an official to Michigan but wasn’t offered)
- Players from the State of Michigan include: UD Jesuit S Sheldon Doss, Lakeland OT Morgan James, Detroit Cass Tech WR Marcel Paul, Ypsilanti CB Marquis Smith
- LB Kyle Bolden is the younger brother of former Michigan LB Joe Bolden.
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…
- They haven’t. Ever.
PREDICTIONS
- Michigan makes 7 sacks, including 2 from Rashan Gary. It would be more, but Cincinnati won’t be able to sustain drives.
- Wilton Speight throws 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
- Nick Eubanks catches his first career TD pass from Brandon Peters.
- Michigan 48, Cincinnati 6
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I’m feeling a score in excess of 48 points. This has all the feel of a 56 or 63 point game. If Cincinnati puts points up, it’s going to be due to a Michigan mistake, or late in the game. But I’m thinking a shutout is quite possible.
The interest in this game is the play of backups — who plays, and how well they play.
Sharpen your pencil, Thunder … you’re going to be taking lots of notes on lots of players! đŸ™‚
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Welp … I was clearly wrong.
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I hate to be overconfident, but agree. I’m going with 55-3
Let’s hope for tons of reps for our backups (I’m looking at you, Ambry Thomas)
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Most importantly we win in a manner that gets players snaps like Peters. I am really tired of the best QB is on the bench rhetoric. On the other hand I am very interested in seeing playing time for him as I think it is healthy to “see what ya got and prepare for the future”.
OOC games like this can be good to build confidence across the board, I’m thinking it is needed especially on offense at QB, and the OL. I want to see Pep bring it enough to see what the WRs, TEs, and RBs can do in an air game. I want to see some holes.
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Michigan winning this game in a blowout is a foregone conclusion and the final score is not what the discussion should be about as even the Bearcat Boards are sayin Mish 50ish+ to 10ish……..
Michigan has a lot of tweaking to work on at a variety of levels and hopefully the 2nd half will provide this to a lot of players as well as team packages.
Also there is the recruiting angle. Metropolitian Cincy is an area that doesn’t particularly like Columbus or OSU – in general; and there are some very good players in that area that may think about Michigan rather than Kentucky or Fickel’s Felines.
Go Blue……………..INTJohn
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pretty crazy if those 2 bearcats listed above already have 18 and 17 tackles after week 1.
i can see one dude racking up huge numbers but its unusual for 2 teammates to post high double digit tackles in the same game.
should be interesting to see how the coaches deploy backups and what the depth chart truly looks like. guys like ambry thomas, glasgow, woods, st juste, etc should really benefit from solid reps – and guys like thomas and glasgow will be needed on D this year
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How’d Cincinnati get so bad? Not so long ago this looked like a like legit program.
As for our team, I don’t think there’s much to learn from these games other than the backups but a couple things come to mind. Will be hoping to see Ulizio have a strong game and corners to stay locked in. If these guys struggle against Cincinnati it will be a worry.
Also – does Brown stick with the 3-3-5 or mix in more 4-man fronts? Can the D maintain dominance over a weak opponent or will Cinci find a way to hit a few big plays?
It is concerning that our defense won’t see a threatening offense until PSU. In hindsight, UF losing it’s too best playmakers may not have been helpful to our cause.
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Cincy football has generally always been mediocre but it was Dantonio who really put them in a position of respectability. As a former DC at OSU he had the recruiting connections in Ohio to get the rest of the good players that OSU didn’t have room for.
Brian Kelly was able to capitalize on Dantonio’s successes and somewhat maintain it; by the time of Butch Jones tho these instate recruiting connections that Dantonio had were beginning to wane and when a Southern outsider with a lot of baggage like Tubberville arrived it really went downhill fast.
Obviously Cincy is hoping that Fickel is the 2nd coming of Mark Dantonio and I think in time Fickel will get Cincy back to respectability because of his deep Ohio connections along with the talent in that state – there’s just not enuff room for it all to go to OSU……..
An answer to your Q……………..INTJohn
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I read mention that Tuberville treated his stint at Cincinnati as a job in retirement and didn’t really do much recruiting, so there isn’t much talent there at all.
And while the defense won’t get any elite competition until PSU, I wouldn’t sleep on IU and Purdue, and since they are away they get road experience. Plus, the backups need playing time as many are 1st and 2nd year players, so a bunch of games where they can play entire second halves will be really nice.
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The schedule lays out very nicely for experiencing the road environment with Indiana, Purdue, and UF coming before PSU. This is something I talked about in the offseason as a good thing, particularly compared to last year where we had no real road challenge until Iowa (Rutgers was a home-away-from-home game and MSU is a short bus ride away). Not a real shock that we struggled.
But setting aside the road issue for a moment — none of those teams are anywhere near the offensuve threat that PSU presents. UF wasn’t a good O to begin with and lost their 2 best playmakers. On top of that Brown’s 3-3-5 surprised them. They weren’t ready. So – I suspect our D may not be quite as good as it looked.
So what’s next? Our schedule does build nicely in overall difficulty:
Cinci -> AF -> Purdue -> MSU -> Indiana -> PSU.
It’s good that things get progressively harder but looking at just the opposing offenses it’s a very big jump from Simmie Cobbs to Barkley, McSorely, etc.
PSU was a top 20 offense last year and maybe top 5 this year. None of our other upcoming opponents (nor UF for that matter) were even in the top 50 last year (per S&P).
Our D may be in a for a rude awakening @PSU. To be honest I hope they get threatened in one of these next few games so that Brown has some additional weight behind his teaching points.
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The good news I think is that, even IF they lose @ PSU, there is a chance to regroup a bit [ Rutgers -> Minn -> @Maryland ] prior to the season-defining finale: @Wisc and OSU.
You would hope that by then both offense and defense would be well prepared. If they can avoid major injuries we should be in a good position in those final 2.
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” I suspect our D may not be quite as good as it looked”
This, from guy who says speight played well
The D is young, and is bound to be exposed, by great and even not-so-great team this year. The excitement is warranted though: despite back to back pick6 and a blocked punt in our own territory, this group held on and took the momentum right back
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Yes, because level of difficulty matters. Last year Florida was a terrible offense and a great defense. We’ll see about this year but it could be more of the same.
As for the D, I’m not saying not to be excited. I’m excited too. That went as well as it could have.
I’m just saying if there’s more people hopping on the “Our D is just as good as 2016” bandwagon, I wouldn’t go there yet. We’ll find out if this D is elite based on how they do against PSU and OSU.
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I saw an article on the Freep pondering whether this defense can be better than 97? Oh my how ‘we’ have gotten ahead of ourselves. I’ll wait till the PSU game to judge this defense to other defenses. I will say it looks faster than 2016.
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I would agree with that. Missed assignments may be the undoing?
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Many starters are 1st or 2nd year players still – so they need seasoning too.
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It’s a long season although your point is salient.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if Harbaugh tells his 2nd haf qb to purposely throw a downfield interception just to see if the offensive unit will react to it and actually try and tackle somebody! (my most intriguing facet of this game).
Or maybe have the starting offensive unit out there on Cincy punt returns (assuming Michigan ever actually punts in this game) to see if they can catch a broken field runner………
jez sayin………….intjohn
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Funny. Harbaugh was rightfully po’d over the effort on those pick 6’s. I want to see as many backups as humanly possible. I’d personally like to see Harbaugh start the 2nd team.
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Two likelihoods.
There will be complaints about “burned redshirts” or …
There will be complaints about how come we can’t put away a terrible football team like Cincinnati, Holy crap!!! We’re doomed against the likes of OSU and Penn State if we can’t run it up on these pathetic Bearcats.
One certainty … there’ll be complaints.
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Welcome to Michigan football, where even a dominant win over a top 15 ranked SEC school gets people talking about how bad the QB is and how he should be benched for the 4th string freshman. Even former players!
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Edwards made some pretty outrageous comments. It’s American sports talk radio. He is probably auditioning for a gig.
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Edwards said some pretty outrageous things. It’s sports radio where you say crazy things. See ESPN. Edwards was probably auditioning for a gig.
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I will the read the above posts shortly. I don’t really care if it’s 60-0 or 42-3. What I want to see is backups in the 2nd half. Lots of backups. Development. I’d rather give up 17 pts and get 2nd and 3rd teamers on the field.
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10 bucks says Lank defends Speight’s first half. Two more turnovers, and more missed opportunities
Not a good QB
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Defend against what?
“Not a good QB.”? Yes I disagree with that. Though I don’t think he played well today. Speight’s day was OK for a legit team but completion percentage way too low for the opponent.
But that’s not the story. My bigger concern is the run game – which was salvaged by 2 long runs on the day but was rarely successful otherwise. We can’t just get by on running outside of our LT.
16 first downs compared to 13 is bad.
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I agree with LK that the running game is the big issue as 1A but the qb is a close 1b. Now when I talk about the running game I am also factoring in both rb’s and the OL and the overall missed assignments. The running backs are tier 2 backs which is okay. UM doesn’t have a star but Isaac is playing fine but need help from the OL and needs better qb play. All of these things are intertwined.
Speight needs a solid run game to give him a chance. I think we are all seeing Speight is limited and that is frustrating because he has some great traits but isn’t accurate. Not a good thing for a qb.
I really wanted to come on here and bash the OL for a poor performance but then Speight throws a couple of very good balls but also is overall inaccurate and just kills drives. The guy is going to be undermined by his lack of passing acumen.
Now let’s be completely honest here. This inaccuracy is going to be a huge problem on the road and against better teams. This guy could be Elvis Grbac if it wasn’t for his Navarrish high throws or behind the receiver or gawd knows where the ball is going to go. It’s exactly what the Ozone guy said, nobody knows where the ball is going to land when Speight throws the ball. No one.
As I have said before, if I were a good defense I would have the safeties play intermediate routes over the middle and basically give Speight everything outside the hash marks and make Speight beat them on the sidelines.
Somebody mentioned about Drevno calling a poor game. That may be true since it seemed there was no flow to the game but what is the OC going to do when Speight might complete 1 out of 6 passes on the perimeter.
I think LK will enjoy this. Speight is the NJ Jets Braylon Edwards wr version at qb.
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The OL was bad. That small front7 was tailor-made for grinding, with multiple 100yd rushers
I’m talking about your prediction for speight to turn it on during this part of the schedule. Well, he found a way to keep the OL as a distant second-most discussed issue
Two ugly & unforced fumbles. Overthrown passes with defenders in his face. Turfing the pass to Perry
On a young squad, it’s inexcusable for your returning QB to be a crutch
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I believe the OL can get better. This can and should be coached up. You are right. No excuse for UM not to be able to control the line of scrimmage no matter the number of defenders in the box.
Someone mentioned Cinci was begging UM to throw. After the Florida game it’s understandable. Bottom line is that opponents are going to start making UM beat them thru the air. Blitz. Speight needs room to throw and with that throwing motion he doesn’t do well throwing in a crowded space. Teams eventually get enough tape and it gets harder for a qb.
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I predicted Speight would have better numbers against a worse defense – he did. That said, his performance was worse than I expected. Still excellent in awareness, decision-making, etc. but the accuracy problems remained.
Based on these 2 games my expectations for significant improvement are incremented downward. I’m still hopeful, but less confident.
He’s still a QB you can win a national title with – he was already that last year. But he doesn’t appear to be the guy I hoped he was becoming — someone who can single-handedly carry an offense with a bad OL across an entire season.
While Speight is important, I don’t think he’s anywhere near the top of the list of concerns or problems. The offense needs a difference-maker and I don’t think they have it. The RBs are fine, the WRs are fine, and yes, the QB is fine too – but there just isn’t anybody the defenses have to really worry about.
Combine that with a bad OL and you have an offense that is mediocre at best.
The other hope (beside Speight ascension) was that Hamilton/Harbaugh would use their collective brilliance to generate something. We aren’t seeing that, or even many signs of it IMO. The offense looked sloppy yesterday and for 2 straight games we’ve seen some dubious playcall sequences.
To me it’s clear that they are struggling to find answers. With the OL in such bad shape it may not be an easy job but a) the OL is on the staff itself and b) these guys are supposed to premier coaches who can find just these sort of answers.
All that said – we’re 2 games into the season. It’s easy to overreact. There’s some troubling signs but everything pales compared the big flashing red light over the OL – particularly on the right side.
As for the D. The performance was good but mildly disappointing for how bad Cinci was supposed to be. That said, a lot of it was that screen play they ran repeatedly for success. Looked like they had that play down and ran it well, to their credit. Hopefully Brown will work on a solution.
DBs still getting beat more often than you’d like and that remains a worry for PSU. Cincinnati was never going to tell us much about that either way.
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Brains, brawn, or speed.
We knew Michigan probably wasn’t going to have the brawn (OL). We knew Michigan probably wasn’t going to have the speed (skill position talent advantage) yet. We hoped they could have the brains advantage (play-calling, QB).
In the first 2 games we didn’t see evidence of any of them and as a result our offense looks below average.
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As another posted stated, it’s the offense that is the weak link the Harbaugh era. I am assuming he recognized that Rudock wasn’t too bad. I see an offense with some really good tight ends and wr’s but the offense looks constipated and not flowing. I will give Onwenu some time and acknowledge Ulizio needs help but how much time am I supposed to wait for a qb to develop?
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The TEs aren’t blocking well enough to be considered good. They’re a couple years away collectively and nobody is breaking from the pack to prove otherwise. Bunting and Wheatley letting the younger guys catch up is disappointing to me.
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Some might doubt that the run game is a problem. Afterall, we ran for 193 yards and averaged 5.2 ypc. But those numbers are dwarfed by 97 yards on 2 carries by Isaac and DPJ. Big plays like that are highly important but they’re also random and unreliable (as Bill Connelly laid out recently).
Without them, Michigan ran 35 times for 96 yards. That’s less than 3 yards per carry. We have to take out Speight’s sacks here to be fair, so the RB numbers are 30 carries for 109 yards.
Even our awful 2014 OL did better than this against an awful opponent.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400547945
45 carries for 276 yards. To compare apples to apples we can drop big runs from Derrick Green and Norfleet, and remove QB runs too (they were good in this game but that’s besides the point). Result: the RBs ran for
Removing the QBs and the outlier big carry:
Michigan RBs against Miami (2014): 35 carries for 178 yards – 5.1 ypc
Michigan RBs against Cincinnati (2017): 30 carries for 109 yards – 3.6 ypc
Now I don’t know how good Miami or Cinci are relative to each other defensively, but the story going into the game was that Cinci was a grade A (grade F?) cupcake that Michigan would easily overpower and overwhelm.
That did not happen. Michigan found itself, as they did against Florida, in 3rd and long situations far too consistently. This time they didn’t get 3 or 4 3rd and long carries to bail them out. Running between the tackles feels hopeless and Michigan’s success seems to come almost exclusively on run plays off the LT. That doesn’t seem sustainable.
I don’t want to be too dramatic after 2 games, but the worst case scenario is on the table for this OL. Despite decent production the issues are very evident here. We might be looking at a 2008 or 2014 level OL…3 years into the Harbaugh era.
I do not think things will be that bad. The season is young and there’s a chance for the right side of the OL to get better. Kugler seems to be playing as well as we could have hoped. Bredeson and Cole are solid at worst. But we need the ENTIRE OL to play well. The weakest link is the determining factor here.
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Agree on all points. The right side of the OL was the worst part of the game, after a subpart performance in week one. We’ll see how they progress
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