RUSH OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #15 in the country with 255 yards/game and tied for #13 (with Illinois) at 5.67 yards/carry. Pre-season afterthought Chris Evans leads the team with 400 yards on 8.3 yards/carry, though he’s just third on the team in carries behind De’Veon Smith (336 yards, 5.5 yards/carry) and Ty Isaac (297 yards, 5.6 yards/carry). It would be remiss of me not to mention fullback Khalid Hill, whose meager 1.6 yards/carry on 13 attempts has netted 7 touchdowns – he’s the goal-line guy. Illinois is #86 in rush defense (185 yards allowed/game) and tied for #78 in yards allowed per carry (4.32). Linebacker Hardy Nickerson (6’0″, 230 lbs.) leads the team by a wide margin with 58 tackles, but two of the next three guys are defensive backs. Defensive end Carroll Phillips (6’3″, 240 lbs.) has made 11 tackles for loss this season. He made 9 TFLs in the first three games (Murray State, North Carolina, Western Michigan) and has just two in the last three games (Nebraska, Purdue, Rutgers). The other end, Dawuane Smoot, is also pretty disruptive (8 TFLs). The Illini have a solid defensive line, but their linebackers leave something to be desired. Michigan’s offensive line has taken a step forward this year, so it won’t be the easiest of sledding, but the Wolverines should do a pretty good job against an undersized front.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.
PASS OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #84 in passing (215 yards/game) but #37 in passing efficiency, which indicates that they’re pretty effective but rely a lot on the run. That’s a good thing because quarterback Wilton Speight struggles at times, especially early in games. None of Michigan’s receiving targets have had outstanding seasons, which can probably be attributed to some inconsistent QB play; however, Amara Darboh leads the team with 25 catches for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns. Michigan is tied for #28 in the country with 9 sacks allowed. Illinois has 15 sacks (tied for #51), led by Phillips with 4 and nose tackle Chunky Clements with 2.5. Cornerback Darius Mosley (5’11”, 190 lbs.) is the most dangerous guy in the secondary, and Illinois moves him inside and outside; he has 2 interceptions on the season, including a 78-yard TD return against Rutgers last week. Illinois gives up 203 yards/game through the air (#32) but they are smack-dab mediocre (#64) in passer rating defense. They run a 4-3 or 4-2-5 defense with a lot of Cover 2, which is understandable for Lovie Smith, the guy who used to coach in Tampa Bay and then Chicago. The left tackle spot will be one to watch, since backup Juwann Bushell-Beatty will be matched up against Phillips or Smoot most of the day.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #8 in the country, allowing 99 yards/game on the ground, and they’re #3 in yards allowed per carry (2.86). It’s very difficult to run the ball against a line that has few weaknesses and a solid linebacker crew. The linebacker squad is led by Ben Gedeon (47 tackles), Jabrill Peppers (39), and Mike McCray (31). Peppers and Gedeon are disruptive forces against the run, notching 10 and 7.5 tackles for loss, respectively. Meanwhile, Michigan has about nine disruptive defensive linemen to rotate in at any given time. Ryan Glasgow, Maurice Hurst, Jr., Chris Wormley, and Taco Charlton can blow into the backfield seemingly at will. Illinois is #50 in rushing (190 yards/game) and they average 5.67 yards/carry. While they did get stonewalled by Western Michigan (15 carries for 3 yards!), they have done a respectable job against decent opponents, averaging 5.1 yards/carry against UNC and 5.9 against Nebraska. Honestly, I’m a little bit confused by the raw numbers of Illinois. While they have put up good numbers, the offensive line is not great (#108 in Adjusted Line Yards) and the running backs are not particularly explosive, aside from freshman Reggie Corbin (9.3 yards/carry on 35 attempts). The backs do run tough, though, and starter Kendrick Foster (384 yards, 6.2 yards/carry, 5 TDs) is a bowling ball. I can’t imagine them getting a ton of operating room against the Wolverines’ front, though.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. ILLINOIS PASS OFFENSE
Michigan allows 114 yards/game through the air, which is almost 20 yards fewer than #2 Florida. They’re tied for #6 in sacks with 24, but nobody has more than Taco Charlton’s 4. It’s a group effort, partly because Michigan likes to blitz linebackers often, and they hoover up some of those quarterback takedowns. On the back end, Channing Stribling has 3 interceptions and 5 pass breakups, while Jourdan Lewis has 1 interception and 3 pass breakups in just three games. Illinois is #103 in passing yardage (182 yards/game) and #74 in passer rating. It’s unclear who will start at quarterback for the Illini. The established starter is Wes Lunt, who got hurt a couple weeks ago. Backup Chayce Crouch, who’s more of a dual-threat guy, hurt his shoulder last week. There are rumors that Jeff George, Jr. might get the start, and he has yet to attempt a pass this season. Lunt does a decent job of taking care of the football, but he averages just 6.5 yards/attempt and barely completes 60% of his passes. Part of that lack of explosiveness is because the receivers are underwhelming. Only Malik Turner has more than 11 catches (31 receptions, 427 yards, 3 touchdowns). Meanwhile, Illinois is tied for #47 in the country with 12 sacks allowed. The passing game probably won’t be as terrible as what Michigan saw against Rutgers, but there’s not much here to be threatened by, either.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Illinois players recruited by Michigan include: LB Dele’ Harding
- Harding was previously committed to Michigan
- Illinois players from the state of Michigan include OT Jake Cerny, TE Tyler White
- Illinois QB Jeff George, Jr. is the son of former Illini and NFL QB Jeff George
- Illinois LB Hardy Nickerson, Jr. is the son of former Illini and NFL LB Hardy Nickerson
- Michigan players from Illinois include: TE Ian Bunting, S Jordan Glasgow, DT Ryan Glasgow, FB Michael Hirsch, RB Ty Isaac, QB Michael Sessa, LS Scott Sypniewski
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- Michigan won 45-0 in 2012
- Denard Robinson ran the ball 11 times for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Thomas Rawls had 9 carries for 90 yards, including a 63-yard touchdown
- Jake Ryan made 11 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks
- Michigan leads the all-time series, 45-13-2
PREDICTIONS
- Illinois’ starting QB doesn’t finish the game
- Grant Perry scores a touchdown
- Michigan holds Illinois to 70 yards on the ground and 170 yards total
- Michigan 38, Illinois 3
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Predictions?
I think it will be at least a 50 pt blowout. Illinois is not much better than Rutgers, and it’s at home. And, Speight has got to get better hitting the deep route to Darboh or Chesson. I’m thinking that they worked on that during the bye week, and we see some hits downfield for some quick points.
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It was nice getting 3 relatively easy games in a row. I think that BYE was the toughest of the 3 opponents.
Excited to see the team on the field again. Trying not to look past Illinois to the pasting that we will give Sparty (darn it, just did it!)
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Here are mine predictions:
JBB struggles at LT and there are questions as to which OL combo sees the field against MSU
Peppers scores 3 total tds and does not see the field in the 4th Quarter
Johnson comes back and scores a td
Michigan 48 Rutgers 3
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Illinois 3
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I’d be pretty disappointed if we only scored 38 on Illinois at home, especially if our defense held them to 3 points and 170 yards total.
I’d like to see Harbaugh turn Speight loose a little more, give him the chance to have a really good, confidence-building day throwing the ball. We won’t need that to win this time, but he will have to get better if we’re going to win the tougher games left on the schedule.
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Agreed. Michigan should try to throw early because opportunities may be limited later in the game.
That’s an arrogant thing to say but our defense is that good and we’ve proven we can run the ball well enough to win. It would take a series of flukes just to keep Illinois close.
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We probably could win the game running the ball almost all of the time, but Speight really needs more than 12-15 passing attempts, regardless of the score. To the extent that he still has potential for improvement this season, it’s not likely to come from more practice.
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I’m with everyone assuming a blowout. No injuries please. I do think we might have a little rust early or perhaps be caught looking ahead to MSU.
Meaningful stuff to watch for (besides dudes not playing):
+JBB
+Speights consistency
+Peppers Heisman resume/highlight padding
+How much time do backup LBs and CBs get
+Can Bradenson/Onwenu/Kugler give Braden a break?
+Is Smith still in fumble purgatory?
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I actually don’t think Smith ate bench for that long because of the fumble… He wasn’t having a good game overall and he might be dinged up a little bit. The coaching staff love him for the effort he gives on every play, and 1 fumble will not put him in the doghouse. I think he will start but the rotation will be more even as other backs are proving themselves deserving of more carries.
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I think the staff love Smith for his production and consistency. PFF ranked Smith in the top 5 Big Ten backs in elusiveness. Evans is there too. This is a league with Barkley, Samuel, Weber, LJ Scott and other quality backs. And elusiveness is supposed to be one of Smith’s weaknesses…
I think the shared backfield thing is overstated right now, because Michigan hasn’t been in competitive situations much. Smith got over half the total snaps against Wisconsin and Colorado, with everyone else fighting over the rest. They’re saving their best back for when they need him. Evans is better as an open field runner but Smith is the guy who makes his own yards in tough situations.
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I am guessing that his tackle breaking ability is the main reason for “elusiveness”
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