Tag: South Carolina

South Carolina 33, Michigan 28

Denard Robinson had a solid final game as a Wolverine (image via AnnArbor.com)

Thanks to the seniors.  For the most part, this group of seniors is made up of stellar kids.  I really like Denard Robinson, Jordan Kovacs, Craig Roh, Vincent Smith, Patrick Omameh, Roy Roundtree, etc.  That group of kids entered school around the time that I started this blog and really started concentrating on evaluating players and such, so it’s odd to see them graduating.  They accomplished some great things, and I’m looking forward to watching some of them on the next level.

J.T. Floyd really hurt his team.  I never really cared about the suspension of Hagerup.  It was a dumb move on his part, but I really think that Matt Wile is just as talented, if not more so.  But Floyd, a fifth year senior, hurt the team in more ways than one.  I’ve said all along that Floyd was susceptible to the deep ball because of his lack of speed, so I don’t know that he would have been able to curtail the deep throws that beat Raymon Taylor, Courtney Avery, and Jarrod Wilson.  What I do know is that the re-shuffling of the defensive backfield due to Floyd’s absence hurt the defense numerous times.  Avery is a pretty good slot corner, but he struggles every time the team puts him on the outside.  With Floyd out, Avery moved to the outside, safety Thomas Gordon moved down to the slot, and freshman Jarrod Wilson came in to play safety.  Floyd’s suspension not only hurt the team at his cornerback spot, but it diminished the quality of play at slot corner and safety, too.

Hooray for Al Borges.  I didn’t agree with every play call or personnel decision by Borges, but he came out with a quality game plan and plenty of wrinkles.  Unfortunately, Michigan lacked the horses and the execution to get the job done.  There was a Statue of Liberty hand-off to Denard Robinson and a fake jet sweep screen to Devin Funchess; Borges moved Denard Robinson around to QB, RB, FB, and WR; and there were some funky special teams plays concocted by the coaching staff to get first downs.  Overall, the players just didn’t execute.  South Carolina got steady pressure on Devin Gardner, Jadeveon Clowney made a couple key plays, and Gardner missed some open receivers.  You can blame some of that stuff on the coordinator, I guess, but a lot of it is on the players.

Holy hell attrition. Out of 24 starters to begin the season, Michigan was missing 5 for the Outback Bowl.  Cornerback Blake Countess, Floyd, middle linebacker Kenny Demens, running back Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Hagerup were all out for this game, along with a solid special teamer in Brandin Hawthorne and part-time fullback Stephen Hopkins.  Running back Thomas Rawls also missed the game, and quarterback Denard Robinson could muster only one measly pass attempt because of his elbow injury.  I know excuses are lame, but the Outback Bowl squad was really just a shell of what it was on September 1.  South Carolina was banged up some (their starting running back and right tackle), but their losses were fewer.  In a game decided with 11 seconds left, it’s quite possible the outcome would have been different if a couple of those guys were still available.

Denard needed new cleats. Robinson has always tested the laws of gravity with the way he leans to cut back, but I didn’t see anyone else having a problem with the footing yesterday.  I’m not sure why he struggled so much, but there were some plays available that he just didn’t make because he slipped and fell.  I thought they had the issue fixed after a couple carries in the second half, but then he want back to looking like he was playing football on ice.

Penalties were a problem.  Michigan only had four penalties, but they netted South Carolina an additional 55 yards.  These weren’t 5-yard offsides or illegal procedure calls.  Taylor Lewan took two big penalties, Joe Bolden made a silly late hit on Connor Shaw, and Ricky Barnum grabbed a defensive lineman’s facemask and held on for the duration of the play.  Lewan was a penalty machine in 2010, got rid of those tendencies in 2011, and seems to have regressed now in 2012.  I like Lewan a lot and I know he’s probably gone for the NFL, but I think he had a better season last year.

Running back is a gaping void.  There has been some recent buzz about Drake Johnson, who redshirted this season, but otherwise, the running back position is wide open for 2013.  Running backs Vincent Smith and Justice Hayes combined for just 8 carries and 6 yards; Rawls didn’t play at all; Toussaint will be coming off a nasty broken leg..  Johnson is a bit of a wild card, but none of these guys look like starter material except a healthy Toussaint.  Wyatt Shallman isn’t the answer, either, so I’m hoping DeVeon Smith is better than I expect or that Derrick Green commits in the next month.

Greg Mattison has had better days.  He was sort of hamstrung by a lack of personnel, but I wasn’t a fan of Mattison’s strategy late in the game.  He was sending blitzes because he realized that his defensive backs aren’t very good, but Michigan appeared to be doing better when they rushed two or three guys and put eight or nine back in coverage.  It was a mistake to count on his young cornerbacks and athletically limited safeties to hold up when they’ve been burned again and again.  If it’s me in that situation, I put four guys deep, rush three, and hope that South Carolina can only complete a short pass.  They were 0/2 on field goals up to that point, and that kicker’s confidence had to be waning.  Make them complete something short, and then force them to chuck something into the end zone or try a pressure-packed field goal.

Overall, a slightly disappointing season.  The schedule was tough.  Michigan’s four regular season losses came against teams that were 46-4 prior to yesterday; two of those teams are playing for the national championship, and another went 12-0 but was banned from the postseason.  But Michigan had very real chances to beat Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State, and couldn’t pull out any of those close games.  The season ended with another close loss to a solid but flawed South Carolina team.  I predicted a 9-3 year, and I predicted the loss to South Carolina, so my projection would have been 9-4.  Not a huge difference from 8-5, but five losses is too many.  Next year should be better, though.

Defensive Backs Preview: Michigan vs. South Carolina

Jordan Kovacs was the team’s MVP this season

MICHIGAN
Starters: Michigan will be missing its two starting cornerbacks from the beginning of the year; sophomore Blake Countess tore his ACL in the opener, and fifth year senior J.T. Floyd has been suspended for the Outback Bowl for breaking team rules.  Sophomore Raymon Taylor (5’10”, 182 lbs.), who replaced Countess for most of the year, will likely slide over to Floyd’s boundary corner position.  Taylor had his share of ups and downs on the season, but did a fair job overall and ended the regular season with 42 tackles, 2 interceptions (1 returned for a TD), 1 fumble recovery, and 1 pass breakup.  Junior Courtney Avery (5’11”, 173 lbs.), who normally starts at nickel corner, will probably step in at Taylor’s regular field corner spot.  Avery struggled there in some limited time early in the season, but he’ll have more reps this time around; playing a new position against Alabama is an extremely difficult task.  This year Avery has 16 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, .5 sacks, 1 fumble forced, and 1 fumble recovery.  Fifth year senior strong safety Jordan Kovacs (6’0″, 202 lbs.) has actually seen his statistics decline a little bit this year, but he was named the team’s MVP by his teammates; he has 65 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble.  Redshirt junior Thomas Gordon (5’11”, 207 lbs.) is more of a strong safety masquerading, but he has shown a knack for creating turnovers in the past; he has 75 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 2 pass breakups.  This is not a great group individually, but along with Floyd, they had the #2 passing yardage defense in the country.
Backups: Freshman safety Jarrod Wilson (6’2″, 194 lbs.) has played more extensively than any other backup, but he hasn’t had a signature positive play.  The game is moving too fast for him, as it often does with young safeties.  He could play a little bit at the nickel corner and has made 7 tackles and 1 fumble recovery on the year.  Another candidate for slot corner is sophomore Delonte Hollowell (5’9″, 176 lbs.), who has 4 tackles and 1 fumble recovery but is more of a special teams player.  The most interesting candidate for playing time is freshman Dennis Norfleet (5’7″, 161 lbs.), who returns kicks and ran the ball occasionally; he has now moved to defense in an attempt to shore up the depleted cornerback position.  Junior safety Marvin Robinson (6’2″, 200 lbs.) is a run stuffer who has played sparingly on defense and made 7 tackles and 1 fumble recovery.  Redshirt sophomore Josh Furman (6’2″, 203 lbs.) plays a lot on special teams but is a liability on defense; he has 10 tackles.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Starters: Redshirt sophomore Victor Hampton (5’10”, 197 lbs.) starts at one cornerback spot; he has made 34 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 interception, and is tied for the team lead with 6 pass breakups.  The other starter is senior Akeem Auguste (5’9″, 188 lbs.), who was injured early in the season and returned to start the last couple games; he has 15 tackles, 1 interception, 1 pass breakup, and 1 fumble recovery on the year. Senior D.J. Swearinger (6’0″, 210 lbs.) is the free safety and has 70 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble, and 5 pass breakups.  Sophomore Brison Williams (6’0″, 205 lbs.) starts at strong safety and has made 48 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 4 pass breakups this season.
Backups: Redshirt junior Jimmy Legree (6’0″, 189 lbs.), the other starting corner when Auguste was hurt, did a solid job.  Legree is a converted free safety and has 43 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 2 interceptions.  Redshirt freshman Ahmad Christian (5’10”, 189 lbs.) has 8 tackles and 2 pass breakups as the backup to Hampton.  Sophomore Kadetrix Marcus (6’1″, 185 lbs.) backs up the strong safety position and has made 5 tackles.

THE TAKEAWAY
The Wolverines have the #2 pass defense and #35 pass efficiency defense in the country, but quarterback play in the Big Ten has been woeful and they’ll be down a starting corner (or two, if you include Countess).  Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have the #16 pass defense and the #34 pass efficiency defense in a schedule that included Georgia’s Aaron Murray, Tennessee’s Tyler Bray, Arkansas’s Tyler Wilson, and Clemson’s Tajh Boyd, not to mention East Carolina and UAB teams that put up pretty decent numbers through the air.  The Wolverines have played a steady diet of teams that rank in the 70’s or lower in passing offense, and Alabama’s A.J. McCarron – whose team blew out Michigan – was the only decent passer on the docket.  I don’t think South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw will shred the secondary, but the edge in defensive back play goes to the Gamecocks.

Advantage: South Carolina

Linebackers Preview: Michigan vs. South Carolina

Jake Ryan is Michigan’s best defensive player

MICHIGAN
Starters: Redshirt sophomore SAM linebacker Jake Ryan (6’3″, 242 lbs.) is the best defensive player on the squad with 84 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 3 pass breakups; he also plays some defensive end in passing situations.  Senior MIKE Kenny Demens (6’1″, 242 lbs.) struggled early in the season, but has played well down the stretch to notch 81 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, and 1 interception.  Sophomore WILL Desmond Morgan (6’1″, 227 lbs.) has 78 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, and 2 pass breakups on the year.  Whereas South Carolina’s defensive linemen make a lot of plays, Michigan’s defensive linemen eat up space and have allowed these linebackers to all make 80-ish tackles this season.
Backups: Freshman WILL James Ross (6’1″, 225 lbs.) was named to the conference’s All-Freshman team and made 34 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and .5 sacks during the regular season; despite his youth and lack of size, he has been the most consistent backup.  Fellow freshman linebacker Joe Bolden (6’3″, 223 lbs.) backs up Demens at the MIKE and has 28 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery on the year.  Redshirt junior Cam Gordon (6’3″, 236 lbs.) hasn’t made as many plays as I expected from him this year, but he has made 17 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 1 pass breakup while spelling Ryan.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Starters: The Gamecocks basically run a 4-2-5 defensive, but safety-ish player DeVonte Holloman mostly plays like a linebacker, so I’ll include him in this portion.  Senior Holloman (6’2″, 241 lbs.) plays the Spur position, a strongside outside linebacker position much like former Wolverine Steve Brown played in 2009; Holloman has 54 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 4 pass breakups, and 3 interceptions.  Fifth year senior middle linebacker Reginald Bowens (6’3″, 254 lbs.) has put up mostly modest numbers with 55 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 pass breakup, but has created several turnover opportunities with 3 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries.  Senior weakside linebacker Shaq Wilson (5’11”, 224 lbs.) leads the team with 77 tackles and has 4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 pass breakup, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery.

Defensive Line Preview: Michigan vs. South Carolina

South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney might be the nation’s best defensive lineman (image via ESPN)

MICHIGAN
Starters: The Wolverines run a 4-3 Under defense.  Senior strongside end Craig Roh (6’5″, 281 lbs.) is a four-year starter and has 36 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks on the season.  The nominal starter at weakside end is sophomore Brennen Beyer (6’3″, 252 lbs.), who has made 18 tackles and forced 1 fumble on the year.  Redshirt junior nose tackle Quinton Washington (6’4″, 300 lbs.) has improved throughout the year but has notched just 29 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and 1 forced fumble on the season; he’s more of a space eater than a playmaker.  Senior defensive tackle William Campbell (6’5″, 308 lbs.) has made 44 tackles, but has just 1.5 tackles for loss and 1 sack.  They don’t make a ton of penetration, but these guys eat up blockers and allow the linebackers to flow to the ball.
Backups: Sophomore weakside end Frank Clark (6’2″, 262 lbs.) is the most prominent backup and the biggest playmaker of the entire unit; he has 25 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 3 pass breakups on the year.  Junior defensive tackle Jibreel Black (6’2″, 279 lbs.) has 18 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 2 pass breakups.  Redshirt freshman Keith Heitzman (6’3″, 270 lbs.) backs up Roh and has 7 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 1 fumble recovery on the year.  Freshman nose tackle Ondre Pipkins (6’3″, 340 lbs.) has just 6 tackles on the season.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Starters: The Gamecocks run a 4-2-5 defense, basically with two strong safeties.  Sophomore weakside end Jadeveon Clowney (6’6″, 256 lbs.) is the star of the team; he’s an All-American who made some Heisman ballots with 50 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 13 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 pass breakups. The line is bookended by fifth year senior Devin Taylor (6’8″, 267 lbs.), who ended the regular season with 40 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 5 pass breakups, and 1 fumble recovery. In between are fifth year senior nose tackle Byron Jerideau (6’1″, 316 lbs.) and sophomore defensive tackle Kelcy Quarles (6’4″, 286 lbs.).  Jerideau gets a little bit of push with 39 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks on the year.  Quarles has 36 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks.
Backups: Senior strongside end Aldrick Fordham (6’4″, 269 lbs.) is Taylor’s pass rushing sub, making 21 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles.  Even Clowney’s backup, redshirt junior Chaz Sutton (6’5″, 248 lbs.), can get after the quarterback with 23 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 pass batted down.  Redshirt freshman Gerald Dixon, Jr. (6’3″, 304 lbs.) and redshirt sophomore J.T. Surratt (6’2″, 295 lbs.) are slightly less productive as the backup defensive tackles, with 22 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, .5 sacks, 1 interception, and 1 pass breakup among them.

THE TAKEAWAY
Okay, this isn’t really a question.  The Gamecocks have the better defensive line by far.  Both of their backup defensive ends have put up better numbers than Michigan’s most productive starter.  They’re #5 in sacks (3.33 per game) and #15 against the run (119 yards/game).  Even with an All-American in Taylor Lewan at left tackle, South Carolina will likely give Michigan’s offensive line fits.
Advantage: South Carolina

Offensive Line Preview: Michigan vs. South Carolina

Taylor Lewan will be the best lineman in the Outback Bowl

MICHIGAN
Starters: From left to right, the Wolverines start redshirt junior Taylor Lewan (6’8″, 309 lbs.), fifth year senior Ricky Barnum (6’3″, 296 lbs.), fifth year senior Elliott Mealer (6’5″, 308 lbs.), fifth year senior Patrick Omameh (6’4″, 305 lbs.), and redshirt junior Michael Schofield (6’7″, 300 lbs.).  Omameh has started 41 games, Lewan has 27 starts, Schofield has 22, Barnum has 15, and Mealer has 12.  Altogether, they have 117 starts among them and average a shade over 6’5″ and 303.6 lbs.  The Wolverines are #25 in the country in sacks allowed (1.25 per game) and have the #40 rushing offense (187 yards/game).
Backups: The Wolverines are very thin on the offensive line, but they’ve tried to preserve the redshirts of some highly touted freshmen.  Other than redshirt freshman center Jack Miller (6’4″, 288 lbs.), the rest of the subs have been walk-ons.  Redshirt sophomore guard Joey Burzynski (6’1″, 295 lbs.) has made the biggest push for playing time of the entire backup crew; redshirt sophomore Erik Gunderson (6’8″, 303 lbs.) and redshirt junior Kristian Mateus (6’7″, 309 lbs.) have both played in blowouts, but both would be severely overmatched against the Gamecocks.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Starters: Michigan recruited redshirt freshman right tackle Brandon Shell (6’6″, 331 lbs.) and redshirt sophomore left guard A.J. Cann (6’4″, 309 lbs.) coming out of high school.  The line is completed with redshirt sophomore left tackle Corey Robinson (6’8″, 337 lbs.), fifth year senior center T.J. Johnson (6’6″, 319 lbs.), and junior right guard Ronald Patrick (6’2″, 305 lbs.).  Johnson has started 52 games in his career, Cann has 25, Patrick has 12, Shell has 9, and Robinson has 8.  Altogether, the squad has 106 starts under their belts, but the tackles have less than a season of experience, and Robinson was a defensive tackle prior to this year.  They average a bit over 6’5″ and 320.2 pounds.  The Gamecocks are #105 in the country in sacks allowed (2.92 per game) and have the #84 rushing offense (143 yards/game).
Backups: Redshirt sophomore offensive tackle Cody Gibson (6’7″, 278 lbs.) started a couple games early in the season.  The other backups haven’t been used much, including senior offensive guard Kaleb Broome (6’6″, 332 lbs.), redshirt junior center Travis Ford (6’3″, 278 lbs.), and redshirt freshman offensive guard Will Sport (6’5″, 291 lbs.).

THE TAKEAWAY
Having watched Michigan’s offensive line struggle to create a push all year long, it’s a little tough to believe, but the Wolverines have the edge here.  Despite being outweighed by an average of almost 17 pounds, Michigan gains more yards on the ground and allows fewer sacks.  They also average a couple more starts each.  Individually, the only South Carolina offensive lineman to garner consideration for All-SEC is Johnson (Second Team), whereas Michigan’s Lewan is an All-American and Omameh was selected by the coaches as First Team All-Big Ten.  Except for heft, Michigan is ahead everywhere.
Advantage: Michigan