2016 Mid-Season Grades: Offense

2016 Mid-Season Grades: Offense


October 14, 2016




chris-evans-462x

Chris Evans has had a breakout freshman year

QUARTERBACK: B

Starting quarterback Wilton Speight has done a solid job for being a first-year starter. The redshirt sophomore is #57 in passing yards (1,194), #45 in completion percentage (61.6%), #59 in yards/attempt (7.5), #31 in touchdowns thrown (11), #23 in fewest interceptions (2), and #48 in passer rating (145.03). He has avoided the huge mistakes that plague a lot of young quarterbacks, and his three turnovers included his first pass of the year, a huge hit by Colorado to cause a fumble, and then an excellent play by Wisconsin linebacker Jack Cichy to tip the ball. If we’re talking about three turnovers halfway into the season, then that’s pretty excellent. On the flip side, he has missed a lot of open receivers and sometimes holds onto the ball too long in the pocket waiting for the perfect throw. His deep ball has improved and he hit some nice downfield passes in game six against Rutgers, so we’ll see if he can continue to improve during the second half of the year. I intended to give him a B-, but I’m bumping it up based on the lack of turnovers.

Hit the jump for the rest of the grades.

RUNNING BACK: B+

At the beginning of the season, I didn’t expect this kind of performance from the running backs. Part of it is, of course, improved offensive line play, but the backs mostly look quicker and stronger, too. Perhaps a year with Kevin Tolbert has made a difference. Surprisingly, the rushing yardage leader is freshman Chris Evans (400 yards, 8.3 yards/carry, 3 touchdowns), who is #10 in the conference in yardage. Next is senior De’Veon Smith (336, 5.5, 2), then redshirt junior Ty Isaac (297, 5.6, 4), and then sophomore Karan Higdon (253, 7.2, 5), who are #15, #20, and #23, respectfully. No one guy has shown the ability to be an every-down standout, but Michigan has done a great job of rotating backs. That has the advantage of keeping defenses off balance and keeping all the backs fresh. Smith is who he is, but Evans has been a pleasant surprise, Isaac is being elusive and running harder, and Higdon has added some strength and quickness.

FULLBACK: A-

I might lump these guys in with the running backs in some schemes, but the fullbacks are heavily involved in this offense. Redshirt junior Khalid Hill has been somewhat of a revelation at the position, where the 6’2″, 263 lb. converted tight end is currently tied for #2 in the conference with 7 rushing touchdowns. He’s only averaging 1.6 yards/carry, but that’s mainly because he gets a ton of carries on the goal line. In fact, he only has 13 carries and 21 yards on the season, but over half of those carries have turned into scores. Hill has also been a solid blocker, especially in the open field on toss sweeps. Redshirt junior Henry Poggi gets a lot of snaps, too, but he’s just a guy.

TIGHT END: B+

Senior Jake Butt is tied with Penn State’s Mike Gesicki for the most catches by a tight end in the conference, and he has a 23-catch, 270-yard, 2-touchdown season going so far. However, he’s been a bit of a disappointment as a blocker, and Speight has had a harder time finding him underneath than expected. Several tight ends have contributed, including freshman Devin Asiasi, who has been the next most impressive guy this season. He only has 1 catch for 3 yards (a touchdown, by the way), but Asiasi has been blocking very well for such a young guy. Michigan has also received heavy contributions from Ian Bunting (2 catches, 6 yards), Michael Jocz (1 catch, 12 yards), and Tyrone Wheatley, Jr. (0 catches). It’s a well rounded group, but Butt’s blocking keeps me from giving them an A as a unit.

WIDE RECEIVER: B+

Fifth year senior Amara Darboh has broken out a little bit (25 catches, 400 yards, 5 touchdowns), though he has had some uncharacteristic drops. Perhaps he’s doing better after having another full year to recover from his 2014 foot injury. Meanwhile, last year’s breakout star Jehu Chesson (15, 231, 1) has had a tough time building chemistry with Speight. Nobody else has been targeted more than once per game. It’s a good blocking group, but they’re limited in the passing game by mediocre quarterback play.

OFFENSIVE LINE: B

This has been a position group in flux, especially on the left side. Left tackle Grant Newsome was lost for the year during the Wisconsin game and replaced by redshirt sophomore Juwann Bushell-Beatty. Fifth year senior left guard Ben Braden has had issues picking up blitzes and avoiding injuries, so he has lost some time to true freshman Ben Bredeson and fifth year senior Patrick Kugler. Center Mason Cole has mostly been very good, though he might play some left tackle if Bushell-Beatty gets hurt or falters. Fifth year seniors Kyle Kalis and Erik Magnuson at right guard and right tackle, respectively, have both made some improvements. Run blocking has improved, but picking up pass rush stunts and games has been the bigger issue, perhaps due to Mason Cole’s inexperience at center.

OVERALL: B+

Michigan’s offense has looked shaky at times, particularly against solid defenses like those of Colorado and Wisconsin. But it’s hard to grade a team too harshly when they’re #4 in scoring (50 points/game), #14 in rushing (255 yards/game), and #35 in total offense (470 yards/game). Those numbers will probably drop off in the coming weeks when Michigan plays tough opponents more consistently, but here at the midway point, the Wolverines are looking better than most probably expected coming into the year.

11 comments

  1. Comments: 1863
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Oct 14, 2016 at 9:09 AM

    Tough grades, but even tougher to argue. Agree on speight, and I might even be lower on him, considering his impact on TE and WR grades… but I get it,first year starter limiting turnovers, and scoreboard
    Go Blue

  2. Comments: 35
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    TriFloyd
    Oct 14, 2016 at 9:47 AM

    Overall, excellent grades. Quibbling, but I would downgrade TE to a B since it seems they have been mostly not inspiring as a group, which is surprising. I’d bump the OL to B+ or A- since they’ve been opening up holes for the run game (the avgs are up pan-RBs), and have given a only-strategically-mobile QB good time in the pocket.

    QB: B
    It feels you’re grading on a curve here. I think Speight has merely done OK (grade: C) (you state “solid” with a qualified “for being a first-year starter”) from an absolute standpoint. I would further qualify with “for having a good OL that has provided good time in the pocket for Speight to go through his progressions.” Yet, he’s struggling to hit the deep ball and throws erratically (e.g., the low pass to Khalid Hill that Hill caught and turned into a long gain; missing Chesson wide open in the flat v. Rutgers, has not been able to maximize his good stable of TEs, etc.). His stats should be better for playing such an easy schedule and being on team with good running/pass protection (giving our competition). Sure, only a few turnovers, but he’s been extremely lucky (i.e., from an absolute standpoint, he’s made poor throws).

    • Comments: 35
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      TriFloyd
      Oct 14, 2016 at 9:48 AM

      Editing comment: There must be some format to bold that I was not aware of since my second paragraph is bolded, although where I intended to quote you is not present. Argh.

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Oct 14, 2016 at 10:16 AM

      I don’t think the OL has been great in pass protection, so I think an A- or B+ is probably a little too high.

      I am probably grading on a curve with Speight, but not turning the ball over is a big thing for me. He’s also shaken off some tacklers that have been allowed to get to him and got rid of the ball. For what’s being required of him, I think it’s a fair grade. If I ask you to pick up five napkins that fell on the floor, you should get an A+ if you pick up all five napkins. Just because the assignment is easy doesn’t mean you deserve a middling grade for doing something simple. The coaches have made things pretty simple, and he has done a pretty good job.

      If they were asking him to win the game by throwing the ball every down, then we would have to look at that situation and see if he can throw the ball 50 or 60 times and still win games. I don’t think he could, at least not against the better teams on the schedule. But at that point he’s not picking up 5 napkins that fell on the floor – he’s doing something much more onerous and complicated.

      • Comments: 92
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Klctlc
        Oct 14, 2016 at 11:22 AM

        Related question to speight.

        Do you think that the deciding factor on who won the starting qb job was the dominant d? Given the defense, harbaugh knew his qb did not have to outscore teams to win [other than osu]. I kind of think that if we had an average d o’korn probably gets the nod. speight is asked to manage game and not commit turnovers, which as you point out is what he is doing.

      • Comments: 359
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        GKblue
        Oct 15, 2016 at 8:37 AM

        I agree with a B for Speight so far this year.He has done enough to move the chains and although unspectacular, we are undefeated. He has kept down the turnovers so give credit where it is due.I honestly think that he has met most of what his coaches have asked of him.

        The napkin analogy is a stretch though… Bellemy never lose your helmet… atta boy!

  3. Comments: 5
    Joined: 8/12/2015
    MGoScene
    Oct 14, 2016 at 12:44 PM

    “… and fifth year senior Patrick Kugler.”

    Isn’t Kugler a RS Jr?

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Oct 14, 2016 at 2:42 PM

      Yes, Kugler is a redshirt junior. My mistake.

  4. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Oct 14, 2016 at 1:24 PM

    Fun idea for a post.

    I think you have to take into consideration the easy schedule and the fact that the offense has had a very very easy job, not only because of opponents, but the fact that the defense kicks teams of the field so quickly giving the O many chances to redeem itself. The MIchigan offense has had the best field position in the entire country and they haven’t done enough with it.

    Overall: B
    Easy job, meh results the few times they were tested.

    QB: B
    Excellent point about turnovers, but Speight is failing to take advantage of the many opportunities presented to him and his struggles against Colorado and Wisconsin – the only teams he’s faced with decent secondaries – are worrisome. I’d give him a B-/C+. If you include Peppers here (and I think you should) plus the Morris package/wrinkle then I think a B is warranted.

    RB: A-
    Smith’s been about as good as expected (though fewer carries and about 1 more fumble than expected). Isaac’s about as good as expected once we heard the positive offseason buzz about improved work ethic. As a 1-2 punch they’re B+ backs. But Evans and Higdon have emerged to make this not only a deep group but one with legitimate playmaking ability.

    OL: B+
    The run blocking has improved dramatically as I hoped and expected. It’s no surprise that the backs look faster and more decisive – that’s what consistent blocking does. BUT The pass blocking has regressed far further than I thought. Some of that is on Speight, but not all of it.For how weak our opponents have been, pass pro has been a disaster. But the run blocking has carried this offense all year. It hasn’t matter who the back is, or if the QB is on his game or not, the OL is ensuring the offense is moving the ball forward.

    WR: A-
    Excellent group that makes very few mistakes. Relative to expectations they have disappointed but it’s still a group that’s consistent in catching the ball and excellent in run blocking. Their meh production is on the QB mostly, but I do think they haven’t gotten open quite often enough.

    TE: B+
    Still not really a complete player in the bunch.

    FB: B+ Hill is a complete player but Poggi seems to be only OK. If you’re big on the YPC measure for RBs, Hill is inflating their numbers. I can’t give them an A grade until we see more in the passing game. Hopefully it’s coming against MSU/OSU.

  5. Comments: 36
    Joined: 11/17/2015
    funkywolve
    Oct 14, 2016 at 5:19 PM

    I’d also add that Hill seems to be a decent receiver from the fullback position. Nothing huge but 8 catches for 66 yds and 1 TD isn’t bad. Throw in Poggi’s 5 catches and it’s an option that the defenses have to keep an eye.

    You say no other wr has been targeted more than once per game. Perry has 6 catches for 114 yds. Are they 6 for 6 in passing attempts to him? I realize 6 catches isn’t a huge amount but when you start looking at the fullbacks (Hill/Poggi) with 13 catches, Evans/Smith/Issac with 15 catches that’s a fairly well rounded passing game incorporating almost all the skill positions, especially when you consider there’s been a couple games (Hawaii/Rutgers) where the passing attack was pretty much shutdown early in the second half.

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Oct 15, 2016 at 5:50 AM

      Well, no, they have thrown a couple times at Perry that were overthrown that I remember. I just meant that no other wide receivers have more than 6 catches.

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