2016 Season Countdown: #72 Karan Higdon

2016 Season Countdown: #72 Karan Higdon


June 28, 2016
Oct 10, 2015; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Karan Higdon (22) rushes on Northwestern Wildcats safety Godwin Igwebuike (16) in the second quarter at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Karan Higdon

Name: Karan Higdon
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 189 lbs.
High school: Sarasota (FL) Riverview
Position: Running back
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #22
Last year: I ranked Higdon #85 and said he would redshirt (LINK). He played in three games, carrying the ball 11 times for 19 yards (1.7 yards/carry) and catching 1 pass for 3 yards.

I thought Higdon would redshirt last season because of a good number of talented, experienced players ahead of him. Despite the presence of those guys, he played a bit. He wasn’t very effective, averaging 1.7 yards/carry. His “biggest” game was against Northwestern, in which he ran 8 times for 16 yards. This spring he missed some time due to injury, so the pecking order wasn’t clear now that Derrick Green is gone.

I don’t see much of a reason for Higdon to move very far up the depth chart this season. Even with Green’s absence, the starter will probably be De’Veon Smith, with Ty Isaac and Drake Johnson as very experienced backups. The Wolverines also brought in three freshman running backs (Kingston Davis, Chris Evans, Kareem Walker), and it would be odd to let all three of those guys redshirt. Davis, Evans, and/or Walker is virtually guaranteed to play, and Higdon is probably third or fourth on the depth chart, at best. He obviously earned the coaching staff’s confidence last season, so he probably won’t waste away on the bench, but his value is questionable right now.

Prediction: Backup running back

13 comments

  1. Comments: 1364
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    WindyCityBlue
    Jun 28, 2016 at 1:59 PM

    Johnson is fragile and Isaac has yet to show a work ethic and performance that will keep him from being buried on the bench. After Smith, things are really wide open IMO, and I wouldn’t even say that he’s locked in to a majority of our carries. There are a half dozen guys who could compete for the 2nd and 3rd spots. Maybe none of them are vital, but I wouldn’t bet against anyone right now either.

  2. Comments: 6285
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Jun 28, 2016 at 2:40 PM

    I agree with the ranking. Higdon will play but he’s unlikely to be an impact player or significantly better than the other options. Unless you’re talking about a guy with special abilities (goalline or 3rd-down specialist), backup RBs are pretty interchangeable.

    I agree with WCB that the senior backups have their warts, but they’re backups – they’re supposed to. Smith is the lead back and as long as he is healthy Michigan is in good shape at RB. Having 2 veteran backups with solid experience is a luxury. Smith and Johnson offer an excellent Thunder&Lightning pairing if they get some help from the OL. I still like Isaac’s potential as a 3rd down back, if he can get his blocking right. Smith seemed to do well last year but his lack of open field speed limits him in the 3rd down role.

    With the schedule being fairly easy in the 1st part of the season, I’m optimistic that they can manage Smith’s workload and keep him healthy for the tough closing stretch.

    • Comments: 1364
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      WindyCityBlue
      Jun 29, 2016 at 6:45 AM

      While Smith is clearly the leader on paper at this point, the fact remains that he is a #2 caliber back. He had very little competition for carries last year, but he still gained less than 800 yards, with a 4.2 YPC average. That’s good, but definitely not at the level of a #1 back on a championship-caliber team. It remains to be seen if anyone on the roster can be significantly better than that, but I would not discount the possibility. Nobody paid much attention to Mike Hart at the start of 2004, but he blew past 3 other more experienced and highly regarded guys and became the clear #1 very quickly as a true freshman. Though I’d rather see him get his reps at SS, I think even Hudson could be in the mix at RB if no one else steps up. At this point, I’d settle for Smith and someone else being a 1A and 1B, both in the 800-1000 yard range.

      • Comments: 6285
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jun 29, 2016 at 1:04 PM

        That’s not a fact. What is a fact is that Michigan ranked 109th in the nation in run blocking (per Opportunity Rate – the percentage of carries in which the offensive line “does its job” and produces at least five yards of rushing for the runner. Generally speaking, the first five yards are considered the line’s responsibility, the next five are split evenly between the runner and the line, and anything over 10 yards is all on the runner.) While not a perfect measure, over the long run it should give a good indicator of how well an OL runblocks. Michigan’s was bad…and it’s been pretty bad all through Smith’s career.

        Smith was competing with two former 5 star backs (Green and Isaac) and track star averaging 5.5 ypc for his career (Johnson). If you believe it’s Smith’s fault and not the OL — why did every other RB struggle in meaningfull situations? When Smith was out against Maryland Isaac ran 6 times for 17 yards. With the offense struggling against OSU, Peppers got 7 carries for 29 yards (this may have included a screen?).

        Smith is the most underrated and underappreciated RB at Michigan since probably the Bo Schembechler era. Even the argument that he lacks big play ability is getting chipped away after that amazing run against BYU. I wouldn’t have said this 2 years ago but I think he’s got a solid chance of playing in the NFL.

        Hudson may play RB but he’s unlikely to be more explosive than Peppers. Even Peppers needs the OL to block much better to produce big plays.

        • Comments: 3844
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Jun 29, 2016 at 3:27 PM

          I get that there are multiple ways to manufacture big runs, but let’s not pretend that Smith has big-play ability. He had a great run against BYU, and nobody can take that away from him. But in 180 carries last season, he had 4 that went for 20+ yards. In Derrick Green’s first 165 college carries, he had 6 runs of 20+ yards. So unless you want to also start arguing that Derrick Green might be a big-play back, then you might want to hold off.

          Ultimately, almost any college running back is capable of making *a* big play, as long as the blocking is good and/or he has enough speed and/or he can break a tackle and/or somebody on defense screws up. That run against BYU doesn’t change who he is, and that’s a slow-ish power back.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jun 29, 2016 at 5:33 PM

            I said ‘chipped away’ — not that the question is gone. Hopefully we see more big plays from Smith this year with improved blocking, but he’ll always be limited by his open field speed.

            What makes Smith special is his tackle-breaking. As you said, that can lead to big plays too. We saw it with Mike Hart all the time – another guy who was “slowish”.

            • Comments: 3844
              Joined: 7/13/2015
              Jun 29, 2016 at 8:41 PM

              I wouldn’t call Hart a big-play back, either, though. He was good, and I would take him back. But De’Veon Smith is no Mike Hart.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jun 30, 2016 at 2:52 PM

            There’s a good chance Smith is better than Hart.

            If I had to bet who has the better NFL career, my money would be on Smith. That’s not fair to Hart (since he was hurt), just as it’s also not fair to compare Hart’s production at Michigan to Smith’s.

            Hart had a lot of offensive talent and stability around him. His QB was Chad Henne, OT Jake Long, etc. Smith’s had to run behind the worst OLs in Michigan history, has played under different OC each year so far, and his QBs and WRs have been inconsistent (to put it kindly). Smith looked great against Florida when his QB was on target and his OL had solidified a bit after a major blocking scheme change. Hart had that the day he set foot on campus.

            I remember Hart having a lot 20 plus yard runs, so I disagree he wasn’t a big play guy. He wasn’t fast in the open field and so he didn’t have 80 and 90 yard runs. Guess what – neither did Brandon Minor, Fitz Toussaint, Mike Cox, or Thomas Rawls. Michigan doesn’t have a lot of backs like Denard Robinson or Ty Wheatley who have both the speed and miss-tackle-creation to make safeties worry about them, even when backed up against the end zone.

            There’s far more to being a RB. Constantly bringing up this critique with Hart or Smith is sort of like knocking a QB for not being able to run. It’d be nice but it’s not the main factor in effectiveness. Nobody says “but they couldn’t run real well” when they talk about Manning or Brady. Likewise they shouldn’t say “but they couldn’t break long runs” when they talk about Smith or Hart.

          • Comments: 3844
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Jun 30, 2016 at 10:22 PM

            There’s not really a good chance that Smith is better than Hart. That’s borderline absurd. Hart is Michigan’s all-time leading rusher. Are you suggesting that De’Veon Smith would be our all-time leading rusher if he had Hart’s supporting personnel?

            I agree that Hart did have better talent around him, but even in his worst season, he averaged 4.4 yards/carry in 2015. His offensive line that year was Stenavich, Henige, Kraus, Lentz, and Riley. None of those guys got drafted like Graham Glasgow (3rd round), and there’s still a chance for Braden, Kalis, Magnuson, and Cole to get picked after this year or beyond. Meanwhile, the other skill guys (Henne, Breaston, Avant, Massaquoi, Ecker, etc.) weren’t a great deal better than last season’s (Rudock, Chesson, Darboh, Butt, etc.).

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jul 01, 2016 at 3:30 PM

            Better and more productive aren’t the same thing.

            Yes, I am saying Smith would have a lot more production with a better supporting cast. Obviously it’s pure conjecture if we are talking about specifics (putting Smith into Hart’s circumstance or vice versa). I think they are similar players and Smith’s NFL career will be interesting to watch and compare with Hart’s to tell us more.

            I would argue that very few Michigan RBs from years past would have done as well as Smith has done under the circumstances. I think he has an excellent skillset for an OL that blocks poorly because he manufactures his own yards. Hart did too, but he had better support to start from.

            The YPC kind of proves my point. You can quibble about fractions of yards if you want but Hart (most productive back in M history) averaged 4.4 ypc his worst year and Smith averaged 4.2 ypc in his worst year. The players around you are more than enough to swing ypc dramatically. Unless you believe Hart was just a WAY better player as a freshman than as a sophomore…

            It’s more reasonable to say we are within the margin of error where we can’t say one guy is better than the other given start differences in personnel.

            It’s not about ‘talent’ on the OL as much as consistency. This will be the first year that Smith isn’t playing in a new offense, with a new coordinator, new blocking scheme, and new QB. His freshman year it was the Borges hodge-podge offense and Gardner couldn’t stay healthy. Next year it was Nussmeir’s single-back zone blocking that was supposed to simplify things (and produced better run numbers) but was less successful overall. Last year it was the Harbaugh/Drevno power offense and Ruddock taking half the year to get on his game.

            Even though there will be a new QB yet again, I expect a much more productive year from Smith (not necessarily ‘better’ year because I think he was really good last year) thanks to consistency in the OL and blocking schemes plus an excellent collection of receivers – perhaps the best Michigan has had since Edwards/Avant/Breaston.

            Smith may not play any better but he will produce much more. Teammates matter a lot.

        • Comments: 1364
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          WindyCityBlue
          Jun 29, 2016 at 5:50 PM

          I’m not putting any “fault” on Smith, just pointing out what he is…a good, but not great running back. Yes, our Oline was not that impressive at run blocking last year, but there were plenty of running backs who would have done better behind them. You can name them just as easily as I can. The fact that none of them were on OUR roster doesn’t make Smith a great back, just the best we had. I’ve seen plenty of #1 backs through the years, running behind all kinds of lines, and Smith simply isn’t one of them.

          As far as “big play” ability, one run that was due as much to poor tackling as anything else certainly doesn’t demonstrate it. If you want to talk about big play ability, imagine what Ezekiel Elliott would have done on the same play. After he got past the first level, he would have been gone for the end zone, and never given the second wave of tacklers a chance to lay a hand on him. The fact that Smith was too slow to outrun the pursuit may have made that run more fun to watch, but it really didn’t make it more impressive.

          And btw, the notion that any yardage past 10 is all on the runner is utter hogwash. A lot of long runs depend on at least one good downfield block by a WR. That doesn’t do much for your credibility on the issue.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jun 30, 2016 at 3:00 PM

            Well, you went from calling him a #2 caliber back to good, so I guess that’s progress.

            I don’t know if Smith is great or just good. I think his production has been suppressed by awful run-blocking, so it’s hard to compare him to other backs in UM history. FWIW I don’t think he’ll be an NFL all-pro. Then again, neither were Biakabatuka, Wheatley, Morris, Thomas, Denard, etc.

            I just find it inplausible that ALL these RBs over the last 4 years are bad. Rawls looks like a player in the NFL and he couldn’t do much here. Toussaint is an NFL back and got shut down. Isaac and Green were 5-star recruits. Smith looks a lot better thanall those guys.

          • Comments: 6285
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jun 30, 2016 at 3:07 PM

            No stat is perfect. Opp rate is the best run-blocking stat around. Over the course of the season (with a large enough sample size), things like downfield WR blocking shouldn’t be a big factor.

            Many statistics work at the macro-level by aggregating a bunch of details over a big enough sample to make their effect negligible. In other words, it may not tell you anything of use about a play, but it will tell you something useful over a few hundred. So “utter hogwash” is an exaggeration.

            Funny how Smith seems to experience a lot more “missed tackles” than his competition. Just lucky I guess. [Note: the flip side of this argument would be Smith experiencing a lot of bad blocking. The problem is he’s not the only back – Green, Higdon, and Kerridge had even worse numbers.]

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