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Comparing the Recruiting Sites: Star Ratings for 2015 First Round NFL Draft Picks

Marcus Mariota

Questions often get raised about which recruiting site is the most accurate. There might be many ways to calculate, and some of them are beyond the scope of this here blog. But one way to analyze recruiting rankings is by looking at the star ratings of each first round draft pick, which I have done below. Each of the four recruiting sites was mined, although admittedly, 247 Sports is at a bit of a disadvantage since they are the newest site; fifth year seniors were not evaluated by 247 Sports coming out of high school.

1. Jameis Winston – QB – Florida State (Buccaneers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 4

2. Marcus Mariota – QB – Oregon (Titans)
ESPN: 2
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

3. Dante Fowler, Jr. – OLB/DE – Florida (Jaguars)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

Hit the jump for the star ratings of the other 29 first-rounders.

4. Amari Cooper – WR – Alabama (Raiders)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

5. Brandon Scherff – OT – Iowa (Redskins)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Not ranked

6. Leonard Williams – DE – USC (Jets)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 4

7. Kevin White – WR – West Virginia (Bears)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: 3

8. Vic Beasley – OLB/DE – Clemson (Falcons)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

9. Ereck Flowers – OG – Miami (Giants)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

10. Todd Gurley – RB – Georgia (Rams)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

11. Trae Waynes – CB – Michigan State (Vikings)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 2

12. Danny Shelton – DT – Washington (Browns)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

13. Andrus Peat – OT – Stanford (Saints)
ESPN: 5
Rivals: 5
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

14. DeVante Parker – WR – Louisville (Dolphins)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 3

15. Melvin Gordon – RB – Wisconsin (Chargers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

16. Kevin Johnson – CB – Wake Forest (Texans)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

17. Arik Armstead – DE – Oregon (49ers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

18. Marcus Peters – CB – Washington (Chiefs)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

19. Cameron Erving – C – Florida State (Browns)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

20. Nelson Agholor – WR – USC (Eagles)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

21. Cedric Ogbuehi – OT – Texas A&M (Bengals)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

22. Alvin “Bud” Dupree – DE – Kentucky (Steelers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

23. Shane Ray – DE – Missouri (Broncos)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 3

24. D.J. Humphries – OT – Florida (Cardinals)
ESPN: 5
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

25. Shaq Thompson – LB – Washington (Panthers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

26. Breshad Perriman – WR – Central Florida (Ravens)
ESPN: 2
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: 2

27. Byron Jones – CB – Connecticut (Cowboys)
ESPN: Unranked
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: Unranked

28. Laken Tomlinson – OG – Duke (Lions)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

29. Phillip Dorsett – WR – Miami (Colts)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

30. Damarious Randall – S – Arizona State (Packers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

31. Stephone Anthony – LB – Clemson (Saints)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

32. Malcolm Brown – DT – Texas (Patriots)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

CONCLUSIONS
The average star rating of a first round pick for each recruiting site:

1. Scout: 3.65625
2. Rivals: 3.59375
3. ESPN: 3.3125
4. 247 Sports: 3.09375*

The average rating for 247 Sports is thrown off by so many unranked prospects. Six prospects were not ranked by 247 while they were still getting their feet under them. ESPN, Rivals, and Scout have no excuse since they have been around for a longer time period. Interestingly, if those six prospects are removed and you average the ratings of the other 26 players chosen, the average ranking jumps to 3.807, easily the highest of the four. That’s not a fair comparison because they could have completely biffed on the other six prospects, but it’s an indication that 247’s ratings should be taken seriously. In my opinion – and not only because of this study – the 247 Sports site is surpassing its counterparts.

Another weakness is this type of study is the number of 5-star ratings given. Typically, Scout gives out 40+ of those ratings, whereas ESPN gives out only 10-20. Rivals and 247 Sports give out roughly enough to fill out the first round of an NFL draft (somewhere around 30). This gives Scout somewhat of an advantage in an analysis like this, and it gives ESPN a disadvantage.

Scout’s biggest goof seems to be Melvin Gordon, who was a 4-star to two other sites and was going to Wisconsin. Any running back headed to Wisconsin has a good chance of being a mighty fine player, but the signs were there for Gordon and Scout missed them. However, Scout did label Leonard Williams a 5-star prospect when no one else did, and they also had DeVante Parker as a 4-star when others saw him as a 3-star.

Rivals did well to name Danny Shelton a 4-star (everyone else had him as a 3-star) and they were the only ones to give Nelson Agholor a 5-star rating (seriously, how did everyone else miss out on that?). Overall, Rivals seemed to be the most consistent with the fewest outliers.

For being such a large outlet, ESPN misses on too many players. Looking just at the top ten – the cream of the crop – they ranked Winston, Mariota, Fowler, and Flowers lower than any of their counterparts, aside from Winston’s 4-star ranking to fledgling 247 Sports. They also failed to even evaluate Byron Jones.

Overall, what can we take away? The people running 247 Sports seem to know what they’re doing, and it will be interesting to see the results as they get more experience, widen their net, and increase the sample size. Scout and Rivals both do a pretty good job and are pretty consistent without too many outliers. ESPN is consistently the least reliable source, both in up-to-date information and ability to evaluate players.

(On a side note, I probably spent more time on Scout’s site than ever before while looking up these rankings. I must say that even though they revamped their site in the last year, that is still absolutely the least navigable site there is. I have never had a subscription to Scout and use it the least, and I cannot understand why anyone would tolerate paying money to deal with that. It boggles the mind to think that such a large website could have such terrible programming.)

2015 Mock NFL Draft Results

The first round of the 2015 NFL Draft took place last night. It was a brisk one, starting at 8:00 p.m. and finishing at approximately 11:30 p.m. I posted a mock draft on Thursday morning just to see how I would stack up against Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock, etc. Unfortunately, I don’t have an ESPN Insider account, so I can’t see Kiper’s picks. For reference, here’s the draft tracker (LINK).

Scoring:

• 2 points for correct team and player
• 1 point for correct team
• 1 point for correct player

2015 Mock NFL Draft

Former Michigan commit Jake Fisher could go late in the first round

I won’t claim to be an NFL expert, but as a big college and pro football fan, I like to take my shot at an NFL mock draft and see how I stack up against Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Mike Mayock, and the like. So here’s my 2015 mock NFL Draft. If any trades are announced before the beginning of the draft, I reserve the right to make some changes. Otherwise, I’m guessing roughly 27 of these picks will be 100% accurate.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Jameis Winston – QB – Florida State
I don’t like the idea of spending a #1 pick on someone with such character concerns, but it looks like that’s the direction the Bucs will go.

2. Tennessee:
Marcus Mariota – QB – Oregon
There seems to be a good chance that someone trades into this spot to take Mariota. I think it’s probably too high to take Mariota, but teams get desperate when looking for a quarterback.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 
Dante Fowler – OLB – Florida
Jacksonville went after a quarterback last year, so now it’s time to shore up the pass rush.

4. Oakland Raiders:
Amari Cooper – WR – Alabama
Oakland is in need of a receiving threat. When’s the last time they had a consistent wide receiver threat?

5. Washington Redskins:
Leonard Williams – DE – USC
Williams is a little bit inconsistent, so he would fit in well with the ‘Skins.

Hit the jump for picks 6-32.


6. New York Jets:
Vic Beasley – OLB – Clemson
Beasley might go a little bit sooner. If he’s available, it’s tough to look past his production – 33 sacks over the past three seasons.

7. Chicago Bears:
Kevin White – WR – West Virginia
Jay Cutler isn’t a franchise quarterback, and he’s not even close without Brandon Marshall. Cutler needs some receiving help.

8. Atlanta Falcons:
Bud Dupree – DE – Kentucky
I thought Shane Ray would be a possibility, but he did some dumb things recently and probably dropped down in the draft a little bit.

9. New York Giants:
Brandon Scherff – OT – Iowa
The Giants’ best years have come when they can win in the trenches, so I think it’s either Scherff or defensive tackle Danny Shelton.

10. St. Louis Rams:
Andrus Peat – OT – Stanford
The Rams have taken a lot of hits with players getting injured or leaving in recent years, so they need to refresh up front.

11. Minnesota Vikings:
Devante Parker – WR – Louisville
The Vikings could potentially give Teddy Bridgewater a very strong receiving corps if they get a receiver like Parker.

12. Cleveland Browns:
Danny Shelton – DT – Washington
Cleveland might trade up to try to get in on Mariota, so this is a tough pick to choose. If they stay at #12, I think Shelton makes sense to help against the run.

13. New Orleans Saints:
Trae Waynes – CB – Michigan State
Waynes appears to be the top-rated cornerback in the draft, and the Saints need someone who can cover.

14. Miami Dolphins:
La’El Collins – OT – LSU
Every year I think that Miami needs to improve their offensive line, so here’s my plea once again, on behalf of a good friend who’s a suffering Dolphins fan.

15. San Francisco 49ers:
Arik Armstead – DE – Oregon
The 49ers need a lot of pieces, including defensive ends and cornerbacks. I think cornerback makes the most sense, which is why the 49ers will go for a defensive lineman.

16. Houston Texans:
Ereck Flowers – OG – Miami
Houston could possibly go in a few different directions – running back, wide receiver – but I think Flowers jumps up somewhere around here.

17. San Diego Chargers:
Todd Gurley – RB – Georgia
He’s coming off of a torn ACL, but the Chargers are in desperate need of a good running back, and Gurley was pretty darn good when he wasn’t injured.

18. Kansas City Chiefs:
Malcolm Brown – DT – Texas
There are a couple potential defensive tackles the Chiefs could take here.

19. Cleveland Browns:
D.J. Humphries – OT – Florida
If the Browns don’t use this pick to move up in the draft for Mariota, they should probably help out their offensive line here after shoring up the defensive line with the #12 pick.

20. Philadelphia Eagles:
Nelson Agholor – WR – USC
If Agholor is still available, I think Chip Kelly might continue his line of USC imports to get some more speed among the receivers.

21. Cincinnati Bengals:
Landon Collins – S – Alabama
The Bengals could go in several directions, but I think this is too early for a couple of the wide receivers and corners available.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers:
Kevin Johnson – CB – Wake Forest
The Steelers are in desperate need of help in the defensive backfield, and Johnson is one of a few corners who could go here.

23. Detroit Lions:
Eddie Goldman – DT – Florida State
The Lions made it out of the doldrums by putting together an elite defensive line, so with Ndamukong Suh gone to the Dolphins, they need a replacement in the middle. (I also have hopes for Melvin Gordon here if the defensive tackle thing doesn’t work out.)

24. Arizona Cardinals:
Melvin Gordon – RB – Wisconsin
It’s been a while since the Cardinals had a great running back, and Gordon could be a good pickup here.

25. Carolina Panthers:
Cedric Ogbuehi – OT – Texas A&M
The Panthers need to rebuild on the offensive line a little bit.

26. Baltimore Ravens:
Phillip Dorsett – WR – Miami
The Ravens need a wide receiver or two. With Baltimore love of former Hurricane Ray Lewis, I’ll give the edge to Dorsett over Breshad Perriman.

27. Dallas Cowboys:
Byron Jones – CB – Connecticut
The workout warrior earns his way into the first round for a team that doesn’t get much production from its corners.

28. Denver Broncos:
Cameron Erving – C – Florida State
This is around the time when a good center comes off the board, late in the first round.

29. Indianapolis Colts:
Jake Fisher – OT – Oregon
Three Oregon Ducks in the first round? Sure. There’s not a good match between glaring need and value here, in my opinion, so go ahead with a solid lineman.

30. Green Bay Packers:
Eric Kendricks – LB – UCLA
The Packers seem to be trying to make their system work with one consistent linebacker (Clay Matthews), so adding a second could be a difference-maker.

31. New Orleans Saints:
T.J. Clemmings – OT – Pitt
The Saints got a cornerback at #13 and I have them taking Devin Funchess at #44 (LINK), so Clemmings fills another need. They could also go for a disgrace pass rusher, like Randy Gregory or Shane Ray.

32. New England Patriots:
Jordan Phillips – NT – Oklahoma
The Patriots let Vince Wilfork go to the Houston Texans, so they need a replacement on the defensive line.

What do you think? Where did I go wrong? And what do the Lions do at #23?

Visitors: May 1-3, 2015

Hartland (WI) Arrowhead offensive tackle Ben Bredeson

At this time I only know of one prospect headed to Ann Arbor this weekend.

2015
Ben Bredeson – OT – Hartland (WI) Arrowhead: Bredeson is a 6’5″, 270 lb. prospect with offers from Alabama, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, among others. He’s a 247 Composite 5-star, the #4 offensive tackle, and #27 overall. Michigan and Notre Dame are thought to be the front-runners, and Bredeson’s older brother has committed to play baseball at Michigan. Ben is planning to choose his school within the next month or so. UPDATE: Bredeson is no longer visiting this weekend since it’s graduation weekend. He has rescheduled the visit for May 30th.

Austin Mack – WR – Fort Wayne (IN) Bishop Luers: Mack is a 6’2″, 205 lb. prospect with offers from Michigan, Ohio State, and Notre Dame, along with numerous others. He’s a 247 Sports 4-star, the #20 wide receiver, and #129 overall. Michigan jumped out to an early lead in his recruitment when they initially offered, but the Wolverines have since fallen behind Notre Dame and Ohio State. The Buckeyes currently have 84% of the 247 Sports Crystal Ball predictions. As a junior in 2014, he caught 69 passes for 1,062 yards and 15 touchdowns.

2015 NFL Draft Preview: Michigan

Devin Funchess will likely be the first Michigan player selected in this year’s NFL Draft

As the NFL Draft approaches on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, we are bound to see a couple Michigan players’ names called. From 2009-2014, Michigan has been going back and forth between having two and three players drafted (LINK). If that trend continues, just two of these players will be selected. Linked to each player’s name is their senior profile, in which I detail some of their workout numbers and a projection.

Devin Funchess, WR: Funchess is the one guy who might sniff the first round, but it would take a leap of faith by a daring team. A wide receiver with a tight end body, he has never been a plus blocker despite being much taller and heavier than the corners and safeties he has faced. When Michigan actually played him at tight end during his freshman and sophomore seasons, he was downright terrible as a blocker. However, he is large and fairly fast and has a 38.5″ vertical. I would not advise a team to take him as a tight end because he doesn’t have the blocking chops, but he’s a guy who can be a mismatch problem for a team that likes to be creative and use multiple tight ends.
My wild guess: 2nd round (#44 overall) to the New Orleans Saints.
Other good fits: Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, New England Patriots

Hit the jump for a rundown of Michigan’s other draft-eligible players.

Jake Ryan, LB: Ryan is a guy who could play SAM linebacker in a 4-3, inside linebacker in a 3-4, or outside linebacker in a 3-4. Personally, I like him on the edge in a 3-4 system, where he can use his playmaking skills to keep contain, rush the passer, and make things happen. He does not have great measurables and doesn’t have a ton of experience on the inside, but if a team is willing to spend some time developing him, I think he could be one of those guys who develops into a starting-caliber inside linebacker, too. Ryan also holds some value as a guy who could be an asset on special teams.
My wild guess: 3rd round (#74 overall) to the New York Giants
Other good fits: Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans

Frank Clark, DE: I did not do a senior profile for Clark, whose domestic abuse issues got him kicked off the team late in his senior year. Clark is a big character risk, as he has had multiple run-ins with the law during his college career. As much as you hope guys overcome these issues, my view is that if it costs Clark a job, there is quite possibly someone more deserving who can take the hundreds of thousands of dollars (or millions of dollars) that he would potentially earn. He was a fairly consistent player during the second half of his junior season in 2013 and then most of 2014, but he was never consistently great and the production didn’t match up to the practice hype. I think he has probably maxed out his frame at a little over 270 lbs. and he’s only 6’2″, so he might be somewhat limited. A team might want to trim off a little weight and make him a 3-4 rush linebacker, or a 4-3 team could use him as a weakside end. I think his inconsistency and lack of elite athleticism will hinder him, if not his off-the-field issues.
My wild guess: 6th round (#205 overall) to the Indianapolis Colts
Other good fits: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders

Devin Gardner, WR/QB: Gardner has resigned himself to the fact that he will almost surely have to play wide receiver if he wants to have an NFL career. At Michigan’s pro day in March, he measured in a little over 6’3″ and 218 lbs. He ran a 4.65 forty, did 15 reps on the 225 lb. bench press, showed off a 35.5″ vertical, broad jumped 9’9″, and ran the 20-yard shuttle in 4.42 seconds. Those numbers are solid but not amazing. Considering the fact that he is changing positions and does not have blazing speed, his options may be limited. However, there are other quarterbacks who have made the transition from quarterback to wide receiver in the NFL quite well – Josh Cribbs, Julian Edelman, Bert Emanuel, etc. Those guys generally seem to be smaller, quicker guys who can get open in the middle of the field, not big guys who can go against NFL corners – arguably the best athletes on the field – and win one-on-one battles. I think Gardner is going to struggle with the move to receiver, but he has size, leadership, toughness, and character on his side. I do not expect him to get drafted, but some team will pick him up as an undrafted free agent

Raymon Taylor, CB: Taylor ran a reported 4.42 forty at Michigan’s pro day, which is too fast to be believable. He’s probably more of a 4.55 or 4.6 guy. Measuring in at a hair under 5’10” and 182 lbs., he’s a little on the small side, too. Taylor made some highlight-reel plays in 2013, but he also got burned at times and did not create a ton of turnovers. He will almost surely not get drafted, so his best bet is to latch on as an undrafted free agent and hope he can make an NFL squad.

Brennen Beyer, DE: Beyer was not extremely productive at Michigan despite being a two-year starter, and he did not help himself out much during a pro day in which he ran a 4.87 forty (keep in mind that those times are typically faster than Combine times, so he’s probably more of a 5-flat guy) and did 20 reps on the bench press. At 6’4″ and 256 lbs., he already seemed to have hit his limit since he struggled to even maintain that weight. His size indicates an NFL outside linebacker, but he lacks the speed to play that position in the NFL and doesn’t offer much as a special teams player. He won’t get drafted, and even if he gets a shot as a free agent, I doubt he will stick with a team.

Will Hagerup, P: Hagerup had an up and down career as Michigan’s punter. At times he would look great, and at other times, he would look mediocre. Suspended frequently for off-the-field behavior, he averaged just 36.0 yards/punt as a sophomore in 2011 and had an uninspiring 42.9-yard average as a fifth year senior this past year. He’s another one who will not get drafted, but he might get invited to a camp. Punters are very transient in the NFL, and guys go from starting NFL punter to standing in the unemployment line on a weekly basis.

Delonte Hollowell, CB: I really only mention Hollowell here because he was the “star” of Michigan’s pro day with a reported 4.34 forty, a 37″ vertical, 20 reps on the bench press, and a 10’1″ broad jump. None of that will get him drafted, because he was ineffective on the field and never became a starter at Michigan. I doubt whether he’ll even get an invitation to a training camp.

Other seniors include:
Joey Burzynski, OG 
Jack Miller, C
Matt Wile, K